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Ukraine - Superthread

Kirkhill

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CBH99

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Is this a sign that Putin is indeed losing it?? Why on Earth would he say such a thing and piss off a long-time ally??
My thoughts exactly.

Putin has typically been one of the best informed, best spoken politicians whenever attending a G20 conference or something similar.

He hasn’t achieved what he’s achieved by being intellectually lazy. He’s smart, cunning, and has managed to be a major obstacle to US foreign policy when it suited Russia’s interests.


This whole thing seems…weird. Making the comments he’s made, like the above, or ordering certain actions & strategy moves in a war he surely must know he isn’t winning decisively.

Maybe he has finally lost it. Wouldn’t be impossible given the last few months.
 

TacticalTea

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My thoughts exactly.

Putin has typically been one of the best informed, best spoken politicians whenever attending a G20 conference or something similar.

He hasn’t achieved what he’s achieved by being intellectually lazy. He’s smart, cunning, and has managed to be a major obstacle to US foreign policy when it suited Russia’s interests.


This whole thing seems…weird. Making the comments he’s made, like the above, or ordering certain actions & strategy moves in a war he surely must know he isn’t winning decisively.

Maybe he has finally lost it. Wouldn’t be impossible given the last few months.
I share this sentiment.

But I prefer to shy away from speculation regarding mental health. It would be too easy to engage in the same sort of exercise towards people like Donald Trump and Joe Biden, and I find it not only distasteful but counterproductive.

So if Putin is failing to subjugate and starve Ukraine or a large part of it, and birth Novorossiya, then what is he achieving? Do his actions still make sense in their context from his perspective? What political forces is he fighting off? Are his concurrent activities (purges, centralization) in reaction to the war's developments, or premeditated and pretexted by the war?

I suspect May 9th will enlighten us a little.
 

Maxman1

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honestly ours are not in good condition at all at this point, heck prior to Afghanistan we had to weld steel plates to the underside of the hulls, why? they had been used, and abused so much that natural ware caused the hull to be only a few millimeters thick. If they are being turned into targets, they likely have everything stripped out already, bare hulls are useless to them.

I figured they would be too far gone at this point.
 

Kirkhill

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Possible loss of Izyum sector Command and the death of a VDV Major General (76th Div?)

Courtesy of O'Brien and related to the purported loss of the 2 CAA command center at Izyum and MGen Simonov of the VDV (76th Div?)


Major General Simonov, recently deceased, was not of the VDV. I speculated wrongly. That'll teach me to stay in my lane. It should also be a reminder that you can't trust everything you read on the interweb.

Cheers.
 

Kirkhill

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I'm not big on watching people die, nor on cute "headlines" or Benny Hill soundtracks - Even the Russian troops deserve to be treated with the dignity every other soldier expects when on the job.

But I put this video up because it speaks to something else. It depicts one Russian tank in isolation. There are a lot of similar videos of single tanks being targeted and destroyed, or of small packets (platoons-troops) being dealt with effectively. This lack of other tanks, the lack of mass, the lack of infantry support - it is counter to what I understand of Soviet practice and the general abhorrence by tankers of penny-packeting.

Is this an indication of

The Russians running out of tanks?
Precision strikes forcing the Russians to run in all directions looking for new tactics?
A lack of infantrymen to provide protection?
A tendency for infantrymen to stay away from the big noisy target that is liable to detonate catastrophically in their midst?

https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/ufxj46
 

Kirkhill

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If this advisor to UKR's interior minister's Twitter feed is to be believed, maybe not JUST one "beeg bozz" affected ...

Apparently Maj Gen Simonov was an Electronic Warfare officer - The Izyum HQ that was destroyed was apparently a 2 CAA facility.

 

MilEME09

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I'm not big on watching people die, nor on cute "headlines" or Benny Hill soundtracks - Even the Russian troops deserve to be treated with the dignity every other soldier expects when on the job.

But I put this video up because it speaks to something else. It depicts one Russian tank in isolation. There are a lot of similar videos of single tanks being targeted and destroyed, or of small packets (platoons-troops) being dealt with effectively. This lack of other tanks, the lack of mass, the lack of infantry support - it is counter to what I understand of Soviet practice and the general abhorrence by tankers of penny-packeting.

Is this an indication of

The Russians running out of tanks?
Precision strikes forcing the Russians to run in all directions looking for new tactics?
A lack of infantrymen to provide protection?
A tendency for infantrymen to stay away from the big noisy target that is liable to detonate catastrophically in their midst?

https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/ufxj46
Each BTG has 10 tanks, so for 120 BTGs they started the war with that's 1200 tanks. Even OSINT confirmed losses are at about 600, or 50% of their starting tanks force. All their best stock is probably used up.
 
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