Ukraine - Superthread

[Eye In The Sky]

Ukraine hasn’t joined NATO…yet…if at all.

I was referring to the suggestion a P-8 or AWACS was doing the direct OTHT piece; Lumber covered a plausible scenario that covers that.

 

[Good2Golf]

I was referring to the suggestion a P-8 or AWACS was doing the direct OTHT piece; Lumber covered a plausible scenario that covers that.

I know. I was perhaps too discretely making a note between committing an overt act, and supporting others through 3rd party information passage.

A P-8 or AWACS would be no different than precisely what FORTE10 & 11 feeding OTH RMP filtered/declassified to UAF have been doing for the last few weeks…or even MAXAR to be honest…or who knows, MDA and RADARSAT2 ISAR data…

 

[Spencer100]

It’s late and all that but, that sure sounds like a Hostile Act to me by NATO/a NATO country against forces of another country?

NATO has been feeding data to Ukrainians from the start. GB and GB of targeting data has been sent. Even Canada is supplying radar sat data, it was reported as part of the package we sent.

I would eat my shoe if there were not NATO people on the ground in Ukraine. Some just newly "retired" some just there. It also has been reported Academy (old Blackwater) is there. Etc.

 

[Eye In The Sky]

Every weapon we’ve sent or bit of intelligence we’ve shared is a ‘hostile act’ to some lesser or greater extent. I’m sure there has been intelligence provided directly already that has led to Russian deaths and loss of equipment. This one is just a particularly noteworthy hit.

If, hypothetically, NATO did facilitate a kill on this, good. This is a very reasonable, proportionate, and discriminate hit. It’s both a symbolic blow and a real, tangible, military one. Keep knocking down major combat capabilities. If Russia doesn’t like it, too fucking bad. They launched this war of aggression; they chose to enter and choose every hour to remain in the war they’re losing. They can choose at any point to withdraw from Ukraine. They will probably find a strong correlation between no longer invading a sovereign nation and ally of the West, and no longer having their military curb stomped.

I’m going to have to disagree; I am thinking of the shooter/spotter perspective of having trained to a certain extent as the spotter in a situation like this. OTHT is active,with intent and…at risk of crossing lines late at night I’ll leave my comments there.

Lumber proceed a very likely scenario where the active Spotter was Ukrainian.

 

[Jarnhamar]

6. Yell “Surprise!”

I know the rest of what you wanted to say

 

[AlexanderM]

This is pretty wild, I thought hey Lumber!

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1514398732611211271

 

[Prairie canuck]

The picture above might not be real...

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1514408038819631114

Well that's disappointing. Nice job sleuthing that out.

 

[Skysix]

Well that's disappointing. Nice job sleuthing that out.

Maybe, maybe not. A lot depends on where the pic was taken from, wind direction, time of day etc. Not as simple as a similar looking cloud or distant horizon.

 

[Eye In The Sky]

If this is exactly how this played out, I am going to seriously be like this for a day or two:

In my world, we call these things “big shooters”. If this went down with a single or even 2 ASMs…nice.

 

[Brad Sallows]

Sunk?

No Lloyd's Open Form opportunity, then.

 

[MilEME09]

Sunk?

No Lloyd's Open Form opportunity, then.

Last OSINT update I heard about 6pm MST, she had capsized and was going down. Neptune's are apparently sea skimming missiles and avoided the ships air defense. Thing to remember, this ship was built in Ukraine, a 4th ship of the class is rotting in Mikolaiv. They knew exactly where to hit to damage the magazine of the ship. I'd call it a successful combat debut for the Neptune.

 

[The Bread Guy]

Guys, guys, guys - @Soldier35 may have something more recent, but RUS state media says the good news is the ammo booms have stopped ....

 

[Haggis]

Guys, guys, guys - @Soldier35 may have something more recent, but RUS state media says the good news is the ammo booms have stopped ....
View attachment 70072
View attachment 70073

Muffled by being submerged, maybe?

 

[The Bread Guy]

Meanwhile, "human trafficking" can be such a harsh term ...

Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine - Statement by the MFA of Ukraine on the threat of illegal adoption of Ukrainian children by citizens of the russian federation

In the course of the ongoing full-scale aggression of the russian federation against Ukraine, the russian occupiers continue to violate the norms of international law and resort to unacceptable actions - the illegal and forced displacement of Ukrainian citizens, including children, among them...

www.kmu.gov.ua

This from the Kremlin info-machine last week (archived link) ....

On April 6–7, Presidential Commissioner for Children's Rights Maria Lvova-Belova visited the Donetsk (DPR) and Lugansk (LPR) people’s republics. She discussed issues pertaining to children’s aid with the republics’ heads ... The purpose of Maria Lvova-Belova’s two-day working visit was to organise targeted humanitarian aid for families with children in the DPR and the LPR, treatment for those wounded in the conflict zone, and rehabilitation for orphans. She discussed placing orphans and children without parental care, evacuated to the territory of the Russian Federation, in Russian families. Work is underway to implement earlier instructions issued by the President to simplify the existing legal mechanisms ...

 

[Bruce Monkhouse]

"Because of the gallant service holding back the marauders on Snake Island the Cruiser Moskva has been promoted to Submarine First Class"


Just thought I'd write the headline for Soldier 35's next video. ..

 

[suffolkowner]

So honestly the whole thing sounds pretty simple from Lumbers explanation. Were pretty confident that Ukraine has been getting help from the Uk and US in particular on land so why not on the sea or as stated via TB2. Realistically the Russian Navy is nowhere in as good a shape as the Russian Army and we have seen our own NATO navies do things like hit civilian freighters and worse in non combat scenarios. I think it is wrong to expect better performance from the Russians. Likely that much work has been put into finishing the Neptune and equally likely that while this might have been the first success it doesnt necessarily follow that it was the first attempt

What defences would the ship have had against sea skimming missiles?

 

[Bruce Monkhouse]

. The missile cruiser "Moscow" is planned to be towed to the port

Ukraine has deep-sea tractors also???

 

[The Bread Guy]

Guys, guys, guys - @Soldier35 may have something more recent ...

18 minutes later ....

Ammunition exploded on the missile cruiser "Moscow". According to the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation, due to a fire on the missile cruiser "Moscow", a detonation of ammunition occurred, the flagship of the Black Sea Fleet was seriously damaged. Now the ship is afloat, the fire has been extinguished, the explosions of ammunition have stopped. The missile cruiser "Moscow" is planned to be towed to the port ...

Funny, that ....

 

[calculus]

More on the Moskva sinking, with additional details, from another reputable source (Naval News):

Loss of Russian Cruiser Moskva: What we know so far - Naval News

Ukrainian forces attacked the flagship of Russia's Black Sea Fleet, the Moskva, causing significant damage aboard the vessel.

www.navalnews.com

 

[The Bread Guy]

"Be our guest! Be our guest!
Put our service to the test
Tie your napkin 'round your neck, cherie
And we'll provide the rest ..."

Why is a Russian Intelligence General in Moscow Lefortovo Prison? - The Moscow Times

Opinion | The head of the Fifth Service of the FSB was brought to Lefortovo Prison under an false name.

www.themoscowtimes.com