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Ukraine - Superthread

Czech_pivo

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Not sure if anyone has ever heard of this guy on YouTube - “Bald and Bankrupt” - he’s a Brit who travels mostly around the old SU, well off the beaten path looking for old quirky Soviet things. Look him up and watch a few of his videos.
 

Spencer100

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Not sure if anyone has ever heard of this guy on YouTube - “Bald and Bankrupt” - he’s a Brit who travels mostly around the old SU, well off the beaten path looking for old quirky Soviet things. Look him up and watch a few of his videos.
I have enjoyed his videos. He goes to Cuba and Africa too.
 

Kirkhill

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SeaKingTacco

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Kirkhill

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How can you fight without a year and a half of basic training and learning which colour socks are required?
 

TacticalTea

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The Bread Guy

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A few highlights from RUS's DefMin's conference call to commanders today (safe PDF of official English text attached)
... At the beginning of the meeting, the head of the defence department spoke about the course of a special military operation of the Russian Armed Forces on the territory of Ukraine. According to him, in general, the main tasks of the first stage of the operation have been completed. The combat potential of the Ukrainian Armed Forces has been significantly reduced, which makes it possible to focus the main attention and main efforts on achieving the main goal - the liberation of Donbass.

"Significant damage has been inflicted on the Armed Forces of Ukraine," Sergei Shoigu said. - Air supremacy has been won. The air force and the air defence system have been practically destroyed. Of the 152 aircraft that were in the Armed Forces of Ukraine before the start of the operation, 123 were destroyed, 77 out of 149 helicopters, 152 out of 180 long- and medium-range air defence systems. The naval forces of the country ceased to exist. All formations of land and airborne assault troops suffered significant losses."

"We are monitoring the statements of the leaders of individual NATO countries about their intention to supply aircraft and air defence systems to Ukraine," the minister said. – If they are implemented, we will respond adequately. We consider the position of the West, which supplies lethal weapons to Ukraine, irresponsible.
Its uncontrolled distribution to the population and mercenaries only aggravates the situation and in the future may pose a threat to the Europeans themselves ...
... Targeted actions to track and destroy foreign mercenaries are continuing. As a result of high-precision weapons strikes on mercenary training centers, as well as combat losses, a decrease in their number on the territory of Ukraine is recorded. Over the past two weeks, more than five hundred mercenaries have left the country and about six hundred more have been eliminated ...
... In accordance with the Presidential Decree, 134 and a half thousand people will be sent to the Armed Forces and other structures where military service is provided. This is less than it was drafted for in the spring of 2021. The first dispatches of conscripts to the place of service are instructed to begin in the third decade of May.

"Despite the decrease in the incidence of coronavirus, I ask you to continue the complex of anti-epidemic measures for conscripted servicemen," the minister said. "Most of the servicemen will undergo professional training in training centers for three to five months. I emphasize that conscripts will not be sent to any conflict
zones. All servicemen of the spring draft of last year will be discharged into the reserve after the expiration of their service and sent to their places of residence." ...
 

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The Bread Guy

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We'll see ...
 

Kilted

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How can you fight without a year and a half of basic training and learning which colour socks are required?
Or by polishing the bottom of your boots, numbering the pairs of boots one and two and rotating them every day
 

Skysix

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I don't know, is there a pattern?

Misjudging ISIS
Misjudging the Taliban 2.0
Misjudging Russia
Perhaps the Int reports are written to please the analysts superiors. Or to justify predetermined political or military objectives. Or to provide backing information for budgetary/purchasing wants. Or maybe an over reliance on SigInt over HumInt. Or just plain incompetence. Who knows.

But one thing has become glaringly obvious, the importance of IO (information operations, including psyops and cyberops) particularly the amount of OSINT available and outside analysts views.
 

Kirkhill

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Interesting article by James Carden reiterating George Kennan.

To summarize: Russia will get where its going in its own time and no amount of external pressure is going to make it get there faster. Deal with Russia as you find it and not as you want it.

 

MilEME09

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Perhaps the Int reports are written to please the analysts superiors. Or to justify predetermined political or military objectives. Or to provide backing information for budgetary/purchasing wants. Or maybe an over reliance on SigInt over HumInt. Or just plain incompetence. Who knows.

But one thing has become glaringly obvious, the importance of IO (information operations, including psyops and cyberops) particularly the amount of OSINT available and outside analysts views.
OSINT is becoming more and more of an important tool these days, even CFINTCOM has an OSINT Group. Said group really should be briefing ever BMQ when it comes to things like meta data, and verification of sources
 

suffolkowner

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The Ukrainians have to avoid getting cut off and isolated in the south east. I dont buy any retreat by the Russians at all. They're either repositioning assets, withdrawing because they can't press the advantage or just outright lying. NATO should continue to pump everything they can into Ukraine as every Russian tank/jet loss is almost an insurmountable deficit
 

Staff Weenie

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The Ukrainians have to avoid getting cut off and isolated in the south east. I dont buy any retreat by the Russians at all. They're either repositioning assets, withdrawing because they can't press the advantage or just outright lying. NATO should continue to pump everything they can into Ukraine as every Russian tank/jet loss is almost an insurmountable deficit
I've been wondering about this - how long will it take Russia to replace the losses, especially in fighter jets, armoured vehicles, and MBTs? Unless they gear up their industry, I'm assuming it'll be many years.
 

MilEME09

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I've been wondering about this - how long will it take Russia to replace the losses, especially in fighter jets, armoured vehicles, and MBTs? Unless they gear up their industry, I'm assuming it'll be many years.
They lack a lot of the heavy industry and High tech industry to produce many components. It will take decades to recover. When this is over the Russian armed forces will be a shell of its pre war self
 
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