Ukraine - Superthread

[Eye In The Sky]

Anyone else feel like something might be a foot with NATO? they are increasing forces on their eastern flank, and the Americans are not letting reporters into where their troops are going.

- NATO has been increasing troops on the eastern flanks

- Poland has asked for a “Peacekeeping Armed Force”.

- the US has said any attacks on any NATO forces inside or outside Ukraine will trip Art 5

- US has stated entire US arsenal will be brought to bear on attackers. 100k + US Forces in Europe again.

I guess the question is how much do people believe in coincidences? 😁

 

[Eye In The Sky]

More importantly China will do what is best for the long term of China.

I’ve always thought China’s game is “the long game”. They grow, insidiously to most people, in power; Economically, militarily.

 

[HumblePie]

Pavel Latushko former Minister of Culture of the Republic of Belarus (Exiled to Poland after 2020 elections)

 

[Humphrey Bogart]

- NATO has been increasing troops on the eastern flanks

- Poland has asked for a “Peacekeeping Armed Force”.

- the US has said any attacks on any NATO forces inside or outside Ukraine will trip Art 5

- US has stated entire US arsenal will be brought to bear on attackers. 100k + US Forces in Europe again.

I guess the question is how much do people believe in coincidences? 😁

They move blocking force in to Eastern Ukraine to protect it?

Maybe but I can't see it as there is no advantage to doing it.

Better to keep a large force on the borders of Belarus and Kaliningrad that can threaten Russia elsewhere. This forces Russia to keep Forces at home and away from Ukraine out of sheer paranoia (the old fear of being caught napping) which means they can't reinforce in Ukraine.

Simultaneously we continue to pump weapons in to Ukraine and undermine Russian efforts there.

Sun Tzu: "The supreme art of war is to subdue the enemy without fighting"

 

[Eye In The Sky]

They move blocking force in to Eastern Ukraine to protect it?

Maybe but I can't see it as there is no advantage to doing it.

Better to keep a large force on the borders of Belarus and Kaliningrad that can threaten Russia elsewhere. This forces Russia to keep Forces at home and away from Ukraine out of sheer paranoia (the old fear of being caught napping) which means they can't reinforce in Ukraine.

Simultaneously we continue to pump weapons in to Ukraine and undermine Russian efforts there.

Sun Tzu: "The supreme art of war is to subdue the enemy without fighting"

I was referring to the article KevinB posted a page or 2 back re: the “NATO peacekeeping forces in Ukraine”.

Ukraine - Superthread

army.ca

I’m sure the Chestmasters are looking for ways to do both concurrently, while not triggering all out war…

 

[MilEME09]

They move blocking force in to Eastern Ukraine to protect it?

Maybe but I can't see it as there is no advantage to doing it.

Better to keep a large force on the borders of Belarus and Kaliningrad that can threaten Russia elsewhere. This forces Russia to keep Forces at home and away from Ukraine out of sheer paranoia (the old fear of being caught napping) which means they can't reinforce in Ukraine.

Simultaneously we continue to pump weapons in to Ukraine and undermine Russian efforts there.

Sun Tzu: "The supreme art of war is to subdue the enemy without fighting"

Russia is stripping the cupboard bare, video has shown all their forces pulling out of Georgia's occupied territory, perhaps we can convince them to go get it back while vlad isn't watching

 

[Humphrey Bogart]

Russia is stripping the cupboard bare, video has shown all their forces pulling out of Georgia's occupied territory, perhaps we can convince them to go get it back while vlad isn't watching

This seems like a good plan 😎

 

[Weinie]

Yes the Russians that are so effective crushing the Ukrainians?
Right now even 5k extra troops in Ukraine would be a massive boost.

But keep in mind that would mean NATO AC over the UKR - and potentially AH-64's rousting Russian formations etc...

The Brit's have been hawkish about this from the outset.
Poland knows that if Putin succeeds in the Ukraine he's not going to stop (other than to rebuild) and move on to another - and not let minor aspects like NATO membership stop him.
Germany did a 180 and is now posting "NEVER AGAIN" in support of the Ukraine.

I get it that we (the West/NATO) would kick Russian ass fairly quickly............... until the nukes start flying. Then numbers/technology/aims/intent do not matter. I have yet to see a compelling argument that would convince me that anyone would come out of that scenario as a victor, or somehow ahead.

 

[KevinB]

I get it that we (the West/NATO) would kick Russian ass fairly quickly............... until the nukes start flying. Then numbers/technology/aims/intent do not matter. I have yet to see a compelling argument that would convince me that anyone would come out of that scenario as a victor, or somehow ahead.

I will take a tie

You can't simply resign yourself to letting Putin do whatever the fuck he wants because he has NuClEaR WePUNZ.
There is a difference between telling Russian we are going to move into the Ukraine in 48hrs and support the Ukraine, have 48hr to pack up your troops - and telling V Corps and the other NATO Armored Forces "last one to Moscow is a Dirty Rotten Egg..."

 

[Weinie]

I will take a tie

If tie means stalemate for Russia in Ukraine, and then they retreat with their tail between their legs, I will take it also. I don't see any way that we can describe any other potential end result as a tie.

 

[Humphrey Bogart]

I get it that we (the West/NATO) would kick Russian ass fairly quickly............... until the nukes start flying. Then numbers/technology/aims/intent do not matter. I have yet to see a compelling argument that would convince me that anyone would come out of that scenario as a victor, or somehow ahead.

This is why I am vehemently against a lot of the jingoism being thrown about by people re: Ukraine/Russia.

It's like people who golf but only concern themselves with driving and fairway play. "My god I must have cranked that ball 300 yds!" .... "yes you did but you also bungled your chip and then 3 putted the hole so I actually beat you by a stroke".

You can't ignore other factors just because they may be inconvenient to you.

The best way for the Russian problem to end is for Moderates to overthrow Putin or for him to simply pass away in his sleep. That requires chipping away at the periphery, not direct engagement.

 

[KevinB]

If tie means stalemate for Russia in Ukraine, and then they retreat with their tail between their legs, I will take it also. I don't see any way that we can describe any other potential end result as a tie.

MAD - it is a tie after all, regardless if it actually both counting a loss.

I edited my comment after you quoted to be a little clearer.
Vlad can't simply push the button by himself - there are cogs in the wheel, and we just need to ensure that they have enough incentives not to want to push the button - or allow anyone to try to carry it out.

 

[Furniture]

This is why I am vehemently against a lot of the jingoism being thrown about by people re: Ukraine/Russia.

It's like people who golf but only concern themselves with driving and fairway play. "My god I must have cranked that ball 300 yds!" .... "yes you did but you also bungled your chip and then 3 putted the hole so I actually beat you by a stroke".

You can't ignore other factors just because they may be inconvenient to you.

The best way for the Russian problem to end is for Moderates to overthrow Putin or for him to simply pass away in his sleep. That requires chipping away at the periphery, not direct engagement.

Like ignoring that if Russia isn't stopped, Putin or his successor(who could be as bad or worse) will be emboldened to attack somewhere like Finland, or maybe a "minor" NATO state like Latvia?

If Russia, Pakistan, Iran, China, or North Korea learn that the West will back down at the hint of nuclear weapons, we invite even greater suffering on the world.

 

[OldTanker]

Even while we don't know the outcome of the current war in Ukraine, what comes next? Are the big boys wargaming the collapse of Russia? Who gets the 6000 nukes? Will Putin 2.0 be worse? How long will sanctions last? Or will we prove Putin right that the West wants to destroy Russia. Do we? Be careful what you wish for, it might come true.

 

[PuckChaser]

"yes you did but you also bungled your chip and then 3 putted the hole so I actually beat you by a stroke".

 

[KevinB]

Even while we don't know the outcome of the current war in Ukraine, what comes next? Are the big boys wargaming the collapse of Russia? Who gets the 6000 nukes? Will Putin 2.0 be worse? How long will sanctions last? Or will we prove Putin right that the West wants to destroy Russia. Do we? Be careful what you wish for, it might come true.

It isn't 6,000 nukes.
The RF has under 6k warheads - and even of that under 6 number over 1600 of those are dismantled due to age.
Of that under 3,400 number less are in a ready state.
Of that number in "ready state" even less are actually able to be used.

I don't want any nuclear weapons to be used, but I'd also not sell my soul down the river just to appease a criminal with a nuclear weapon.

There are many things that can be be done that would help stabilize the situation after Putin.

I'd say a Marshall Plan 2.0 is needed for the Eastern European Countries - including Russia

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1504084083428798469

 

[Weinie]

This is why I am vehemently against a lot of the jingoism being thrown about by people re: Ukraine/Russia.

It's like people who golf but only concern themselves with driving and fairway play. "My god I must have cranked that ball 300 yds!" .... "yes you did but you also bungled your chip and then 3 putted the hole so I actually beat you by a stroke".

You can't ignore other factors just because they may be inconvenient to you.

The best way for the Russian problem to end is for Moderates to overthrow Putin or for him to simply pass away in his sleep. That requires chipping away at the periphery, not direct engagement.

"Like ignoring that if Russia isn't stopped, Putin or his successor(who could be as bad or worse) will be emboldened to attack somewhere like Finland, or maybe a "minor" NATO state like Latvia?

If Russia, Pakistan, Iran, China, or North Korea learn that the West will back down at the hint of nuclear weapons, we invite even greater suffering on the world."



We are less than a month into this. The Russian military has been roughed up to the point that they will be licking their wounds for at least a year, regardless of how the war in Ukraine goes. They would need 3-5 years to reconstitute, and that was before sanctions. They will be no match for anyone for a considerable time, from a conventional standpoint. The global community has imposed sanctions up the yingyang, which will have devastating impacts in Russia. This expectation that we need/deserve instant results and gratification is first, sanctimonious, and secondly, naive.

The best introspection is coming from China. They are very, very carefully considering their next moves. We should be too. Patience is a virtue. Strategic patience is a game changer.

 

[MilEME09]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1504240884858109954

 

[Prairie canuck]

Putin's grip on everything is eroding. I know it's an impossible ask but Ukraine needs to keep doing what they're doing and NATO needs to up the lethal aid. Russians will take care of Putin and the St Petersburg Mafia.

 

[lenaitch]

Commenter from a twatter.

Stephanie George @mytimeatlast....
Profile:
"Mom/wife, feminist, Indigenous Midwife, IBCLC, Oneida/biracial, Instructor McMaster, #SickNotWeak ambassador. My anagram is Thespian"

Who are these people.

The present - grooming the future, sadly.