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Ukraine - Superthread

suffolkowner

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I'm still waiting for the other shoe to drop on this. Fully expected worse news with respect to Kiev today. The delay has to benefit the Ukrainians doesn't it?
 

daftandbarmy

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This is an insult to the profession of soldiering.

Well, they ARE mostly conscripts.

soldier GIF
 

TacticalTea

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Anyone in the UKR military who speaks French may not appreciate getting poutine from Canada - unless their info-ops folks do a hot take on "Poutine in a Bag, boiled and eaten" :)
We could get some hilarious footage from the frontlines out of that!
I was referring to Ham Omlette. I don’t think there was poutine available when I was in!
There is, now. It's mostly chicken with fries and cheese, and I think the gravy might be adapted to be healthier or just longer-lasting. Definitely not the bona fide experience, but it's still an enjoyable meal.
I'm still waiting for the other shoe to drop on this. Fully expected worse news with respect to Kiev today. The delay has to benefit the Ukrainians doesn't it?
The slower Russia encircles Ukrainian cities, the longer those cities can continue receiving foreign (and domestic) aid.
 

daftandbarmy

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I'm still waiting for the other shoe to drop on this. Fully expected worse news with respect to Kiev today. The delay has to benefit the Ukrainians doesn't it?

The Russian Bear seems a bit groggy after waking up from its winter hibernation:

Russians running out of food, gas: US official​

The Russian forces charging toward Kyiv haven't made progress in the last day as they face Ukrainian resistance and low food and gas supply, a senior U.S. defense official told reporters Tuesday.

However, it could be a deliberate pause, the official said. "Part of the stall could be ... as a result of their own self-determined sort of pause in operations -- that they are possibly regrouping, rethinking, reevaluating," the official said.

 

Eye In The Sky

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Of course they are bogged down, There is a shit ton of destroyed and Fuel-less Russian equipment between them and their target. Moving all those dead vehicles to get a convoy through will be a huge job.

There's that...but that's something an ARV or equivalent would make short work of in theory. I'll go out on a limb and say "most armies plan for this contingency" and usually have some kind of recce ahead to not only find "problems" but to then find alt routes around them. Like a big, Convoy Escost task, with MPs and the whole sha-bang.

  • they might be having resup problems in their own supply trains
  • they might be taking some delaying actions on defiles/gaps/flanks

Whatever the reason...they're on a fairly slow ROA; whether it is deliberate or not...who knows.
 
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KevinB

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There's that...but that's something an ARV or equivalent would make short work of in theory. I'll go out on a limb and say "most armies plan for this contingency" and usually have some kind of recce ahead to not only find "problems" but to then find alt routes around them. Like a big, Convoy Escost task, with MPs and the whole sha-bang.

  • they might be having resup problems in their own supply trains
  • they might be taking some delaying actions on defiles/gaps/flanks

Whatever the reason...their on a fairly slow ROA; whether is deliberate or not...
Assuming 1) the MP’s aren’t running the fuel selling ring 2) the Recce units didn’t desert 3) The ARV’s where not sold to Ukrainians to recover the same vehicles as they pay better…

The glaring issues with a bear 80% conscript force.
 

Dana381

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There's that...but that's something an ARV or equivalent would make short work of in theory. I'll go out on a limb and say "most armies plan for this contingency" and usually have some kind of recce ahead to not only find "problems" but to then find alt routes around them. Like a big, Convoy Escost task, with MPs and the whole sha-bang.

  • they might be having resup problems in their own supply trains
  • they might be taking some delaying actions on defiles/gaps/flanks

Whatever the reason...their on a fairly slow ROA; whether it is deliberate or not...who knows.

ARV's would take too long, what is the Russian equivalent of this? Just push them off the road.

1.jpg
 

Eye In The Sky

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Assuming 1) the MP’s aren’t running the fuel selling ring 2) the Recce units didn’t desert 3) The ARV’s where not sold to Ukrainians to recover the same vehicles as they pay better…

The glaring issues with a bear 80% conscript force.

Yup, I'll be honest - I'm a bit perplexed by this convoy, and the "looking to make some sense of it" part of my brain is hoping they're getting held up at defiles, getting nibbled at from the front, flanks or something...I hope they're paying a price.
 

Kirkhill

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Along with a useful trade in international pilots





And continuing the Volunteer theme, but in another area entirely




I have my principles. But, if you don't like those I have other ones.
 

Kirkhill

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If you combine this with the reports about Russia running out of advanced munitions within 10 days, read as Kyiv will not likely fall.


Historically many sieges failed because the besiegers lacked the resources to sustain it - fuel for winter fires, clean water, adequate food and good sanitation. Many failed because dirty soldiers started dying of disease.

The people on the inside generally had the advantage in having access to shelter, waster, fuel (even if it is just the furniture) and sanitation.

It takes a disciplined army to hold a siege line for more than a few weeks.
 
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