Ukraine - Superthread

[BillN]

Is that a US 1st Cav patch on that board?

Yes, sure looks like it.

 

[suffolkowner]

I'm still waiting for the other shoe to drop on this. Fully expected worse news with respect to Kiev today. The delay has to benefit the Ukrainians doesn't it?

 

[daftandbarmy]

This is an insult to the profession of soldiering.

Well, they ARE mostly conscripts.

 

[TacticalTea]

Anyone in the UKR military who speaks French may not appreciate getting poutine from Canada - unless their info-ops folks do a hot take on "Poutine in a Bag, boiled and eaten"

We could get some hilarious footage from the frontlines out of that!

I was referring to Ham Omlette. I don’t think there was poutine available when I was in!

There is, now. It's mostly chicken with fries and cheese, and I think the gravy might be adapted to be healthier or just longer-lasting. Definitely not the bona fide experience, but it's still an enjoyable meal.

I'm still waiting for the other shoe to drop on this. Fully expected worse news with respect to Kiev today. The delay has to benefit the Ukrainians doesn't it?

The slower Russia encircles Ukrainian cities, the longer those cities can continue receiving foreign (and domestic) aid.

 

[Brad Sallows]

Re: speed. Ground doesn't really firm up until mid-to-late spring, so the longer they're not in cities, the longer they're not fighting on hard ground.

 

[MilEME09]

I mean.... cool.... but I'm certain that they also need air superiority and missle defence more than protective gear we don't want any more.

Much like the ANA saying "thanks, but no thanks" to our C7s and C7A1s

We would have to have AA to be able to give it.

 

[MilEME09]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1498805616688697348

If you combine this with the reports about Russia running out of advanced munitions within 10 days, read as Kyiv will not likely fall.

 

[daftandbarmy]

I'm still waiting for the other shoe to drop on this. Fully expected worse news with respect to Kiev today. The delay has to benefit the Ukrainians doesn't it?

The Russian Bear seems a bit groggy after waking up from its winter hibernation:

Russians running out of food, gas: US official​

The Russian forces charging toward Kyiv haven't made progress in the last day as they face Ukrainian resistance and low food and gas supply, a senior U.S. defense official told reporters Tuesday.

However, it could be a deliberate pause, the official said. "Part of the stall could be ... as a result of their own self-determined sort of pause in operations -- that they are possibly regrouping, rethinking, reevaluating," the official said.

Russia-Ukraine updates: US to ban Russian carriers from its airspace

Live updates on the Russia-Ukraine crisis.

abcnews.go.com

 

[MilEME09]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1498806760693542914

Unlikely that high as 800, but even 10% of that, 80 would still be a major tactical victory.

 

[Eye In The Sky]

Of course they are bogged down, There is a shit ton of destroyed and Fuel-less Russian equipment between them and their target. Moving all those dead vehicles to get a convoy through will be a huge job.

There's that...but that's something an ARV or equivalent would make short work of in theory. I'll go out on a limb and say "most armies plan for this contingency" and usually have some kind of recce ahead to not only find "problems" but to then find alt routes around them. Like a big, Convoy Escost task, with MPs and the whole sha-bang.

• they might be having resup problems in their own supply trains
• they might be taking some delaying actions on defiles/gaps/flanks

Whatever the reason...they're on a fairly slow ROA; whether it is deliberate or not...who knows.

 

[KevinB]

There's that...but that's something an ARV or equivalent would make short work of in theory. I'll go out on a limb and say "most armies plan for this contingency" and usually have some kind of recce ahead to not only find "problems" but to then find alt routes around them. Like a big, Convoy Escost task, with MPs and the whole sha-bang.

• they might be having resup problems in their own supply trains
• they might be taking some delaying actions on defiles/gaps/flanks

Whatever the reason...their on a fairly slow ROA; whether is deliberate or not...

Assuming 1) the MP’s aren’t running the fuel selling ring 2) the Recce units didn’t desert 3) The ARV’s where not sold to Ukrainians to recover the same vehicles as they pay better…

The glaring issues with a bear 80% conscript force.

 

[Dana381]

There's that...but that's something an ARV or equivalent would make short work of in theory. I'll go out on a limb and say "most armies plan for this contingency" and usually have some kind of recce ahead to not only find "problems" but to then find alt routes around them. Like a big, Convoy Escost task, with MPs and the whole sha-bang.

• they might be having resup problems in their own supply trains
• they might be taking some delaying actions on defiles/gaps/flanks

Whatever the reason...their on a fairly slow ROA; whether it is deliberate or not...who knows.

ARV's would take too long, what is the Russian equivalent of this? Just push them off the road.

 

[MilEME09]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1498789059124158467

Kherson may have fallen

 

[Eye In The Sky]

Assuming 1) the MP’s aren’t running the fuel selling ring 2) the Recce units didn’t desert 3) The ARV’s where not sold to Ukrainians to recover the same vehicles as they pay better…

The glaring issues with a bear 80% conscript force.

Yup, I'll be honest - I'm a bit perplexed by this convoy, and the "looking to make some sense of it" part of my brain is hoping they're getting held up at defiles, getting nibbled at from the front, flanks or something...I hope they're paying a price.

 

[Eye In The Sky]

ARV's would take too long, what is the Russian equivalent of this? Just push them off the road.

View attachment 69098

Maybe that IS their ARV and that's what is (1) slowing them down and (2) using up all their fuel....

 

[KevinB]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1498766726372155399

 

[Kirkhill]

Along with a useful trade in international pilots

The Polish Pilots Who Flew In The Battle Of Britain

On 1 September 1939 the German Army, supported by the Air Force (Luftwaffe) and Navy (Kriegsmarine) invaded Poland from three sides. Polish defences, already strained under a powerful and innovative German assault, collapsed shortly after the Soviets launched their own invasion from the east on...

www.iwm.org.uk

No. 312 (Czechoslovak) Squadron RAF - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Eagle Squadrons - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Non-British personnel in the RAF during the Battle of Britain - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

And continuing the Volunteer theme, but in another area entirely

Popski's Private Army - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

I have my principles. But, if you don't like those I have other ones.

 

[Eye In The Sky]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1498766726372155399

Was it you, or someone else, that said something the other day about "Russian SOF actions not making the news yet"?

 

[TacticalTea]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1498766726372155399

Outrageous.

Where have manners gone? Do they not start by simply feeding him estrogen?

Also: 2022 State of the Union Address | The White House

State of the Union address in 4 minutes. Either a massive turn (military action, RUS O&G ban) or nothing at all. The latter seems more likely.

 

[Kirkhill]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1498805616688697348

If you combine this with the reports about Russia running out of advanced munitions within 10 days, read as Kyiv will not likely fall.

Historically many sieges failed because the besiegers lacked the resources to sustain it - fuel for winter fires, clean water, adequate food and good sanitation. Many failed because dirty soldiers started dying of disease.

The people on the inside generally had the advantage in having access to shelter, waster, fuel (even if it is just the furniture) and sanitation.

It takes a disciplined army to hold a siege line for more than a few weeks.