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Ukraine - Superthread

Kirkhill

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I don't think Belarus is trusted to make a map themselves...
I don't think Lukashenko is smart enough to think a public outing might save him a bit.

In the absence of better proof, I am wary of underestimating EVERYBODY.

But.... there again.
 

The Bread Guy

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ICC Prosecutor: Let's have a look, shall we?
Text also attached in case link doesn't work
 

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KevinB

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My wife says the biggest threat to Ukraine now is that their counter attack might be successful enough to take Moscow and force putin to use nukes.
The Russians are using their firepower against the cities now, as the UKR hasn't been kindly yielding to be "liberated".

This is going to come to a forcing point soon.
1) I don't think the Ukrainian people are going to accept going back to the pre 2014 status
2) I don't think the West is going to sit and let a million civilians in cities be obliterated
 

TacticalTea

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The Russians are using their firepower against the cities now, as the UKR hasn't been kindly yielding to be "liberated".

This is going to come to a forcing point soon.
1) I don't think the Ukrainian people are going to accept going back to the pre 2014 status
2) I don't think the West is going to sit and let a million civilians in cities be obliterated
On that note, mainstream voices are coming around to the idea of military intervention:

 
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Kirkhill

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Its fascinating the Hostomel relief convoy - now stretching to 40 to 50 km?

How much of a threat is that under the current circumstances? The Russians have not been able to hold the ground. The whole world has the locations of every truck in the convoy. The troopies in the trucks are well aware of Bayraktars and Grads, and know that the closer they get to Kiev, in their lovely long column the closer they get to Ukraine's missiles.

It would have been bad enough to take a long range missile strike while on the move at 5 km/h. But what is the effect if the last truck in the convoy, at 45 km from the Ukrainian position, is now with in range of Ukraine's shortest range 122 mm rockets?

If you can see Napoleon's columns advancing, you might as well lay down in the grass until they arrive.
 

Haggis

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The Russians are using their firepower against the cities now, as the UKR hasn't been kindly yielding to be "liberated".

This is going to come to a forcing point soon.
1) I don't think the Ukrainian people are going to accept going back to the pre 2014 status
2) I don't think the West is going to sit and let a million civilians in cities be obliterated
1) Ukraine is much better provisioned than Russia and the weapons should start to flow in soon, unless Putin shuts the western door to Ukraine.

2) As long as the west can keep them provisioned with minimal risk of material losses to NATO, I agree. There will be a tipping point when either NATO takes a large loss while supplying Ukraine (ex. a downed A400M or C17) or Putin attacks a sustainment staging base in NATO territory. Article 5 may not stand up to public opinions back home in the face of nuclear intervention.
 

TacticalTea

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In the 1930s Stalin's policies starved 10 million people to death with nary a whimper from the west. I am not saying the West wouldn't intervene now but historically it hasn't happened.
I'm not sure that's an apt comparison. The circumstances and interests at play are very dissimilar.
 

Czech_pivo

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I know its been talked about before on here, the worry that while Vlad is running wild in the Ukraine (pre-invasion thinking of course) that the West's eye would be off the Taiwan 'ball', but any thoughts on China stabbing Vladdy in the back and making a push into some water/resource rich area of Siberia and then saying, what are you going to do about it? I mean most of Vladdy's troops are far, far away and when they do come back alot won't have any heavy equipment. The cupboard in the East is almost empty.
 

Good2Golf

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Their Elite 1st Guards is bogged down in an Urban battle.

  • NLAW and Javelin are being used already.
  • A "concerted effort" is being used to ruin Russian C2 +
  • No effort has been made to hide that former WP Aircraft have been 'given' by NATO countries and used against Russian forces.

The Terrain and Weather for this offense is awful - no Military analysis would have supported this timing - it should have been done a month + ago.

My take aways:
Russia was supremely overconfident
Russia had taken a lot of incorrect lessons learned from Syria
Russia had undervalued the effectiveness of NLAW, Javelin, Stinger and some other provided equipment.
Russia ignored the terrain implications.
Ukrainian fighting spirit was woefully undervalued by EVERYONE (myself included)
Looks like the Russians are FLOCARK’d…
 

Remius

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China is paying very close attention to what’s happening. And yes, I have no doubt that they will use what they learn to make whatever move they feel is in their best interest.

I am sure they are rethinking Taiwan and how to handle that. The whole shut down of Russia’s economy may have given them pause.

I am sure they drop Russia like a wet bag if it suits them. They already have to an extent.
 

cyber_lass

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I know its been talked about before on here, the worry that while Vlad is running wild in the Ukraine (pre-invasion thinking of course) that the West's eye would be off the Taiwan 'ball', but any thoughts on China stabbing Vladdy in the back and making a push into some water/resource rich area of Siberia and then saying, what are you going to do about it? I mean most of Vladdy's troops are far, far away and when they do come back alot won't have any heavy equipment. The cupboard in the East is almost empty.
Not "the Ukraine", only "Ukraine"... I see more China making a move on Taiwan more than Russia...
 
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