Ukraine - Superthread

[RangerRay]

I couldn’t resist. An oldie but a goodie!

 

[Baloo]

I've been looking around for decent OSINT feeds regarding the Russian build-up and I've found a couple that may interest some folks:

https://twitter.com/konrad_muzyka

https://twitter.com/CITeam_en

https://twitter.com/Danspiun

The last link contains a lot of photographs and videos of vehicle and equipment movement, current up to the last few hours.

 

[Altair]

Don’t believe Putin’s propaganda. Sanctions are hurting Russia.

International sanctions imposed on Russia since 2014 in response to Moscow's attack on Ukraine continue to have a negative impact on the country's economy despite Kremlin efforts to claim otherwise.

www.atlanticcouncil.org

this is a nice article on some of the financial repercussions

Western sanctions don't hurt Russia nearly as much as Russian bombs shells and bullets hurt Ukraine.

 

[Kirkhill]

Dec 17, 2021

Russian court accidentally delivers guilty verdict on Putin’s Ukraine war

A Russian court in Rostov has accidentally issued a guilty verdict on Putin's Ukraine war by publishing official documents confirming the presence of Russian military units in Kremlin-occupied eastern Ukraine.

www.atlanticcouncil.org

The verdict in the case against V. H. Zabaluyev was originally published on November 10, 2021, but only came to the attention of journalists in mid-December. It states that Zabaluyev oversaw the procurement and delivery of food to “military units of the armed forces of the Russian Federation” deployed in the Kremlin’s two self-styled people’s republics in eastern Ukraine.

The verdict goes on to provide considerable detail about these deliveries, which apparently took place every two weeks over an extended period in 2018-2019. According to court papers, convoys of up to 70 trucks carried a range of food supplies from the Rostov region to Russian soldiers stationed in Kremlin-occupied eastern Ukraine. The sums of money and volumes of cargo indicated in official court documents suggest a Russian troop presence in eastern Ukraine numbering in the tens of thousands. Drivers reportedly received high salaries due to the perceived “complexity and danger of the route.”

Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov attempted to play down the scandal by insisting it was all the result of human error. “We are probably talking about a mistake by those who wrote the text because it is impossible,” he told reporters. “There were and there are no armed forces of the Russian Federation on the territory of the self-proclaimed republics.”

In a recent article addressing the stalled peace process, former US Special Representative for Ukraine Kurt Volker noted that the current lack of clarity was hampering efforts to impose additional costs on the Kremlin. “Privately, French and German diplomats acknowledge Russia’s responsibility for the ongoing war, but for diplomatic reasons do not often state this publicly,” Volker observed. “There are signs that this Franco-German unwillingness to identify the aggressor is feeding through into a refusal to consider detailed sanctions at this juncture and even to deny defensive weaponry to Ukraine.”

Since December France has been supplying weapons to Ukraine

Ukraine has been buying arms through deals with the United States, Britain, Lithuania, France and Turkey, which has been supplying armed drones.

Anti-missile and anti-aircraft systems, electronic warfare kits and cyber defense equipment are high on Ukraine’s shopping list. Ukraine is also eager to buy surface-to-surface missiles that can strike swarms of targets simultaneously.

Germany is under mounting pressure from European allies to drop its long-standing refusal to supply weapons to Ukraine to help the country to defend itself from a Russian attack.

Britain flew short-range anti-tank missiles to Ukraine on Monday, avoiding German airspace.

NATO Countries Urged to Supply More Weapons to Ukraine

Pressure mounts on Germany to drop a long-standing refusal to help the country defend itself in the event of a Russian attack

www.voanews.com

Gerhard Schröder: former German chancellor and currently chairman of Rosneft, which brought some controversy in western countries as a result

Alexey Miller and Gerhard Schroeder, Chairman of Shareholders’ Committee of Nord Stream AG, hold working meeting

A working meeting between Alexey Miller Chairman of the Gazprom Management Committee, and Gerhard Schroeder, Chairman of the Shareholders' Committee of Nord Stream AG, took place today at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum 2021.

www.gazprom.com

Business activities[edit]​

Schröder's plans after leaving office as Chancellor and resigning his Bundestag seat included resuming his law practice in Berlin, writing a book, and implementing plans for twin pipelines for Gazprom, Russia's leading energy company. He was subsequently retained by the Swiss publisher Ringier AG as a consultant.[71] Other board memberships include the following:

• Herrenknecht, Deputy Chairman of the supervisory board (since 2017)[72]
• Nord Stream, Chairman of the Shareholders' Committee (since 2006)[73]
• CargoBeamer, Member of the Advisory Board
• N M Rothschild & Sons, Member of the European Advisory Council (since 2006)[74]
• Hannover 96, Chairman of the supervisory board (2016-2019)[75]
• TNK-BP, Member of the International Advisory Board (2009)[76]

Other activities[edit]​

In addition, Schröder has held several other paid and unpaid positions since his retirement from German politics, including:

• Berggruen Institute, Member of the Council for the Future of Europe and the 21st Century Council.[77]
• Bundesliga Foundation, Member of the Board of Trustees
• German Cancer Research Center (DKFZ), Member of the Advisory Council[78]
• Dresden Frauenkirche, Member of the Board of Trustees[79]
• Friedrich Ebert Foundation (FES), Member[80]
• Mädchenchor Hannover Foundation, Member of the Board of Trustees[81]
• Museum Berggruen, Member of the International Council[82]
• German Near and Middle East Association (NUMOV), Honorary Chairman of the Board[83]
• Wilhelm Busch Museum, chairman of the Board of Trustees (since 2013)
• InterAction Council of Former Heads of State and Government, Member[84]
• International Willy Brandt Prize, Member of the Jury[85]

Gerhard Schröder - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Rosneft - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

 

[The Bread Guy]

Something else to keep in mind re: Germany's and France's less-than-robust response: they're also co-sponsors, so to speak, of the Minsk accords (lay person's MSM summary of the key points here) that were supposed to bring the conflict to an end - this from a joint DEU-FRA statement in November:

... Against the backdrop of renewed concerns about Russian movements of troops and hardware near Ukraine, we call on Russia to adopt a posture of restraint and provide transparent information about its military activities. Any new attempt to undermine Ukraine’s territorial integrity would have serious consequences.

We called on Ukraine to maintain a posture of restraint. Already in Spring 2021, Ukraine contributed significantly to the de-escalation of the situation, despite Russian aggressive rhetoric and failure to provide transparent information in line with its international obligations.

We also shared concerns about the deteriorating humanitarian and security situation in Donbas. We called on Ukraine to continue the full implementation of the Minsk agreements and to maintain its full engagement into the discussions conducted in the Normandy format.

We remain committed to the resolution of the conflict on the basis of the Minsk agreements ...

Meanwhile, both sides say the other side's preventing the terms of the agreement from being implemented (RUS's fault here, UKR's fault here) - and FRA & DEU have signed on the dotted line with their presence @ the talks saying they'll work toward getting the (far less than ideal) agreement done.

 

[Altair]

Something else to keep in mind re: Germany's and France's less-than-robust response: they're also co-sponsors, so to speak, of the Minsk accords (lay person's MSM summary of the key points here) that were supposed to bring the conflict to an end - this from a joint DEU-FRA statement in November:

Meanwhile, both sides say the other side's preventing the terms of the agreement from being implemented (RUS's fault here, UKR's fault here) - and FRA & DEU have signed on the dotted line saying they'll work toward getting the (far less than ideal) agreement done.

When one member of the accord is planning to eat in part or in whole, another member of the accord, then that accord is useful for only one thing.

Toilet paper.

 

[The Bread Guy]

When one member of the accord is planning to eat in part or in whole, another member of the accord ...

Yeah, that's about right - Russia got what it wanted. And now France & Germany have to (at least look like they want to) make that happen.

 

[suffolkowner]

I've been looking around for decent OSINT feeds regarding the Russian build-up and I've found a couple that may interest some folks:

https://twitter.com/konrad_muzyka

https://twitter.com/CITeam_en

https://twitter.com/Danspiun

The last link contains a lot of photographs and videos of vehicle and equipment movement, current up to the last few hours.

You could try Rob Lee

https://twitter.com/RALee85?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor

Moscow’s Compellence Strategy - Foreign Policy Research Institute

How ambitious are Russia's foreign policy objectives, and how much force does Moscow believe it must employ to achieve them? Moscow has submitted various

www.fpri.org

 

[MilEME09]

The latest, western intelligence is now saying the Russians are planning pro Russian regime change if so, invasion is inevitable.

Russia-Ukraine tensions: UK warns of plot to install pro-Moscow ally

The Foreign Office takes the unusual step of naming a former Ukrainian MP as a potential Kremlin candidate.

www.bbc.com

The hawks are screeching over Ukraine. Will cooler heads prevail? - Macleans.ca

www.macleans.ca

Ukraine embassy calls on Canada to send weapons, sanction Russia after $120M loan announced

nationalpost.com

 

[Altair]

You could try Rob Lee

https://twitter.com/RALee85?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor

Moscow’s Compellence Strategy - Foreign Policy Research Institute

How ambitious are Russia's foreign policy objectives, and how much force does Moscow believe it must employ to achieve them? Moscow has submitted various

www.fpri.org

The joint exercise with Belarus ends February 20th, the same day as the closing ceremony of the Beijing Olympics?

You don't say...

 

[Czech_pivo]

German V-Admiral falls on his sword

“Speaking at an event in India on Friday, vice admiral Kay-Achim Schoenbach had said Ukraine would not regain the Crimean Peninsula, which Russia annexed in 2014. Schoenbach also said it was important to have Russia on the same side against China, and suggested that Russian President Vladimir Putin deserved "respect."

Ouch, tell us how you really feel Hans….

German navy chief resigns following Ukraine, Putin comments

The head of the German navy resigned late Saturday after coming under fire at home and abroad for comments he made on Ukraine and Russia.

www.ctvnews.ca

 

[Weinie]

German V-Admiral falls on his sword

“Speaking at an event in India on Friday, vice admiral Kay-Achim Schoenbach had said Ukraine would not regain the Crimean Peninsula, which Russia annexed in 2014. Schoenbach also said it was important to have Russia on the same side against China, and suggested that Russian President Vladimir Putin deserved "respect."

Ouch, tell us how you really feel Hans….

German navy chief resigns following Ukraine, Putin comments

The head of the German navy resigned late Saturday after coming under fire at home and abroad for comments he made on Ukraine and Russia.

www.ctvnews.ca

More like he stuck his sword up his own arsch.

 

[FJAG]

German V-Admiral falls on his sword

“Speaking at an event in India on Friday, vice admiral Kay-Achim Schoenbach had said Ukraine would not regain the Crimean Peninsula, which Russia annexed in 2014. Schoenbach also said it was important to have Russia on the same side against China, and suggested that Russian President Vladimir Putin deserved "respect."

Ouch, tell us how you really feel Hans….

German navy chief resigns following Ukraine, Putin comments

The head of the German navy resigned late Saturday after coming under fire at home and abroad for comments he made on Ukraine and Russia.

www.ctvnews.ca

And a whole bunch of other stupid stuff.

The video of his really dumb speech (in English) is available on the Daily Mail's article on this.

Ukraine slams Germany for refusing to supply weapons to Kyiv

Ukraine's foreign ministry also said Saturday it had also summoned the German ambassador to Ukraine over comments made by German navy chief Kay-Achim Schoenbach.

www.dailymail.co.uk

 

[MilEME09]

Makes me wonder if Fritz got drunk at the beer gardens and got back together with the Ex from 1938......

 

[The Bread Guy]

The latest, western intelligence is now saying the Russians are planning pro Russian regime change if so, invasion is inevitable ...

RUS info-machine via Associated Press: Lies, all lies!

The joint exercise with Belarus ends February 20th, the same day as the closing ceremony of the Beijing Olympics?

CHN info-machine via RUS state media (archived link here) on China asking to hold off until after the Olympics? Lies, all lies!

Meanwhile, some interesting wordsmithing at Der Spiegel. Longish article on why Germany has little manouver room on Ukraine (political/economic fallout, with a detailed analysis of the politics) without mentioning their status as key players with the Minsk Accords or the Normandy Four even once.

 

[Blackadder1916]

And a whole bunch of other stupid stuff.

The video of his really dumb speech (in English) is available on the Daily Mail's article on this.

I was a little confused about why he would be speaking English in what appeared to be a committee meeting, then the light bulb came on and I realized he was in India. Accepting that his command of English is an infinite measure greater than my now decades past mangling of Deutsch, could his faux pas (now we're into trilingualism) be attributed to stumbling in another language during a conversation when free-flowing thoughts are more common than during a prepared and rehearsed presentation?

As for his speech . . . in addition to the taped meeting at the Daily Mail link, Admiral Schoenbach also gave a presentation available here

I haven't had the time to listen to all of it yet.

 

[FJAG]

Accepting that his command of English is an infinite measure greater than my now decades past mangling of Deutsch, could his faux pas (now we're into trilingualism) be attributed to stumbling in another language during a conversation when free-flowing thoughts are more common than during a prepared and rehearsed presentation?

I think his command of English is very good.

Maybe it's just me but my impression was he was somewhat arrogantly giving the Indian "peasants" a lecture on the "India-Europolitik" - especially the bit about roping Russia in with Europe against the Chinese. Europe and particulalry Germany, having awakened to the China threat, have for a few years now been courting India and vice versa. Merkel went there in 2020, I believe, and there have been many high level discussions on everything from trade to defence.

Like I said, I don't think it was a language issue. To me he sounded like he was talking down to the Indian delegates and got carried away with his own brilliance. That happens to us Germans from time-to-time.

 

[Czech_pivo]

I was a little confused about why he would be speaking English in what appeared to be a committee meeting, then the light bulb came on and I realized he was in India. Accepting that his command of English is an infinite measure greater than my now decades past mangling of Deutsch, could his faux pas (now we're into trilingualism) be attributed to stumbling in another language during a conversation when free-flowing thoughts are more common than during a prepared and rehearsed presentation?

As for his speech . . . in addition to the taped meeting at the Daily Mail link, Admiral Schoenbach also gave a presentation available here

I haven't had the time to listen to all of it yet.

Well I listened to the whole link.
First, the guy said at least 10 times through the whole thing how much he views China as a threat. I remember him saying the same thing about week and a half ago when he was in Singapore. He views Russia as the enemy of my enemy is my friend.
Second, his command of English is perfectly fine. No issue there.
Third, he seemed to be more in favour of Merkel and her old government than the new government. He made a telling statement during this answer about Russia, he said he was a Roman Catholic and if I remember correctly, in Germany they typically vote for the Christian Democrats, Merkel’s old party. Because of this, and his comments on Putin and the pressure the new Chancellor is under from the US, I think the SD’s forced him out.
Lastly, I think the guy thinks like a military man, not a politician. He definitely believed that he was among friends there in India, especially when he told them that his son was marrying an Indian girl and that he was emigrating to India. He didn’t believe that someone would leak this comments out of rom that forum. He learned a very valuable lesson today, trust few people and keep your true opinions to yourself.

 

[SeaKingTacco]

I think his command of English is very good.

Maybe it's just me but my impression was he was somewhat arrogantly giving the Indian "peasants" a lecture on the "India-Europolitik" - especially the bit about roping Russia in with Europe against the Chinese. Europe and particulalry Germany, having awakened to the China threat, have for a few years now been courting India and vice versa. Merkel went there in 2020, I believe, and there have been many high level discussions on everything from trade to defence.

Like I said, I don't think it was a language issue. To me he sounded like he was talking down to the Indian delegates and got carried away with his own brilliance. That happens to us Germans from time-to-time.

Hang on now- An arrogant German General Staff Officer?

 

[Czech_pivo]

USAF out scouting the border regions

Live Flight Tracker - Real-Time Flight Tracker Map | Flightradar24

View flight on Flightradar24

www.flightradar24.com

LOL, this is the #1 tracked flight in the world, with over 4,400 people tracking it with 4,300 being in Russia, lol.