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Ukraine - Superthread

Altair

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Good luck.
I don't imagine it to be an easy transition for either party, but Europe isn't a client state of the USA and can more or less do what it pleases.

More than likely if Washington felt that this is the path Europe would take they would back down rather than begin the first steps of replacing the USD as the global reserve currency.
 

KevinB

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The currency that commodities is traded in.

The Europeans appear to be balking at the thought of banning the Russians from SWIFT, probably because they would freeze to death without Russian oil and gas.

In order to, you know, survive, instead of using USD for commodities trade Europe and Russia switch to Euros and the USA can't do a thing about it?


SWIFT isn't tied to NATO.
No one is going to try to bend US over on the USD and switching, as we just make take our ball and go home, and everyone else likes to complain about us, but they enjoy a lot of safety from the weight of our balls.
 

Halifax Tar

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No one is going to try to bend US over on the USD and switching, as we just make take our ball and go home, and everyone else likes to complain about us, but they enjoy a lot of safety from the weight of our balls.

I don't know why guys haven't done that already.

I'd go full isolationism for a while and let these whiny Europeans and else take care of their own for a while.
 

daftandbarmy

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Altair

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No one is going to try to bend US over on the USD and switching, as we just make take our ball and go home, and everyone else likes to complain about us, but they enjoy a lot of safety from the weight of our balls.
When the choices are switch to the euro to trade commodities or go along with banning Russia from SWIFT and freeze, well, its not much of a choice now is it?

As for the USA taking its ball and going home, again, article five and SWIFT are not tied at the hip are they?
 

Brad Sallows

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The USD still commands a position as a widely-used unofficially recognized currency. That is the part that would be hard to overcome.
 

Jarnhamar

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I don't know why guys haven't done that already.

I'd go full isolationism for a while and let these whiny Europeans and else take care of their own for a while.
How would going full isolationism impact American business interests abroad? Military alone the US has some 750 bases in some 80 countries, apparently.

I do agree everyone bitches about the US until shit hits the fan then it's red white and blue flags everywhere.
 

Halifax Tar

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How would going full isolationism impact American business interests abroad? Military alone the US has some 750 bases in some 80 countries, apparently.

I do agree everyone bitches about the US until shit hits the fan then it's red white and blue flags everywhere.

If they really wanted too they could withdraw militarily and use their Navy just protect trade routes.

Their ability to consume alone will keep them as trading partners. They could also reestablish their manufacturing power and rely less in others.

Short term pain, long term gain.
 

KevinB

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I’m not a fan of isolationism, I think it is short sighted and hurts America in the long run. Basically I’m a big fan of fighting wars in other peoples homes and not mine.

But, I also think that at a certain point, that everyone needs to pull their own weight. Maybe losing a bit of Europe would reinforce that a point.
 

Czech_pivo

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If they really wanted too they could withdraw militarily and use their Navy just protect trade routes.

Their ability to consume alone will keep them as trading partners. They could also reestablish their manufacturing power and rely less in others.

Short term pain, long term gain.
It would be sad to see this as parts of the world would see great upheaval and death. One of the areas the US would not turn their back on is Israel, for certain they would continue to be shaded by the US umbrella.
The South Koreans and Japanese would come around pretty damn quick to the US new order and would gladly accept US hegemony over a vengeful China.
I could see India and Pakistan duking it out pretty quickly. Russia would try and run wild through as much of Europe as they could. Parts of Africa would burn. Persia/Iran and the Saudi’s would go toe to toe. The Gulf States would plead for US protection. The list goes on and on.
 

Czech_pivo

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I’m not a fan of isolationism, I think it is short sighted and hurts America in the long run. Basically I’m a big fan of fighting wars in other peoples homes and not mine.

But, I also think that at a certain point, that everyone needs to pull their own weight. Maybe losing a bit of Europe would reinforce that a point.
But not the former Warsaw countries/Baltic’s. They have suffered enough under the Russian yoke and for the most most they take their participation in NATO seriously.
 

MilEME09

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I’m not a fan of isolationism, I think it is short sighted and hurts America in the long run. Basically I’m a big fan of fighting wars in other peoples homes and not mine.

But, I also think that at a certain point, that everyone needs to pull their own weight. Maybe losing a bit of Europe would reinforce that a point.
Or maybe we need to hit back? What about those poor oppressed ethnic Poles, Ukrainians, germans, etc.. in Kaliningrad
 

YZT580

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I’m not a fan of isolationism, I think it is short sighted and hurts America in the long run. Basically I’m a big fan of fighting wars in other peoples homes and not mine.

But, I also think that at a certain point, that everyone needs to pull their own weight. Maybe losing a bit of Europe would reinforce that a point.
Already lost a bit, how much more will be required? Maybe Poland?
 

QV

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If they really wanted too they could withdraw militarily and use their Navy just protect trade routes.

Their ability to consume alone will keep them as trading partners. They could also reestablish their manufacturing power and rely less in others.

Short term pain, long term gain.
You’re starting to sound like Peter Zeihan
 
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