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Ukraine - Superthread

Lancaster

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The Bread Guy

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Movements for the big upcoming BLR-RUS ex (?) Source
Screenshot 2022-01-17 162608.jpg
That's the BLR-UKR border in yellow @ the bottom of this map
FJVUtbAX0AMz-DL.jpg
Meanwhile, from the U.K. ...
... According to a statement given by the Defence Secretary in the House of Commons today, the 17th of January 2022.

“As of today, tens of thousands of Russian troops are positioned close to the Ukrainian border. Their deployment is not routine, and they are equipped with tanks, armoured fighting vehicles, rocket artillery, and short-range ballistic missiles.

I can today confirm to the House that, in light of the increasingly threatening behaviour from Russia, and in addition to our current support, the UK is providing a new security assistance package to increase Ukraine’s defensive capabilities.

We have taken the decision to supply Ukraine with light, anti-armour, defensive weapon systems. A small number of UK personnel will also provide early-stage training for a short period of time, within the framework of Operation ORBITAL, before then returning to the United Kingdom ...
 

Spencer100

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Canada deploys special forces to Ukraine amid
rising tensions with Russia.

Is a war coming?
It is a deployment of force to get people out. In my mind it doesn't mean a force to show any support to Ukraine.
 

Czech_pivo

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It is a deployment of force to get people out. In my mind it doesn't mean a force to show any support to Ukraine.
So they've been there 8 days so far. A decent amount of time to plan an evac out of Kiev that most likely won't be done from air (at least from Kiev). Going to assume that some 8 wheeled transport may have gone with them and a drive to Poland might be in the works or somewhere much closer to Poland/Slovakia so some planes could be flown in.

Wondering if a plane load of Carl G's came with them ;)
 

Czech_pivo

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That’s Russian.
You mean Kyiv.
I learned it as Kiev here in Canada and it’s Kiev until the day I die. It’s also Lvov, not Lviv and I still say Burma, Calcutta and Bombay. It’s Brussels not Bruxelles, Liege not Luik, Aachen not Aix la Chapelle, Antwerp not Anvers.
The old names work just fine.
 

MilEME09

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Well this paints a grim picture of Russia preparing for war. Reserves being called up, troops and equipment being hauled all the way from the North Korean border region to Belarus, wasn't the last time they shifted people in mass from Siberia was 42........

Regardless, if this is a bluff, it is an expensive one, if it's not, unless Ukraine secretly kept a tactical nuke or two, 100 BTG's are going to roll eastern Ukraine, or we find out Russian forces aren't as good as we thought.

One thing I know for sure, if Russia goes In, they won't give it back.
 

Altair

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Well this paints a grim picture of Russia preparing for war. Reserves being called up, troops and equipment being hauled all the way from the North Korean border region to Belarus, wasn't the last time they shifted people in mass from Siberia was 42........

Regardless, if this is a bluff, it is an expensive one, if it's not, unless Ukraine secretly kept a tactical nuke or two, 100 BTG's are going to roll eastern Ukraine, or we find out Russian forces aren't as good as we thought.

One thing I know for sure, if Russia goes In, they won't give it back.
I think the only thing in question is where do the Russians seem fit to stop.

Dnieper might be the best case scenario, but they might just want to crush Ukraine wholesale if they see the opportunity
 

The Bread Guy

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... Meanwhile, from the U.K. ...
About those Brit flights with anti-tank weapons ....
Diplomatic editor @MarkUrban01 reports that planes to Ukraine with British anti-tank missiles avoided German and Dutch airspace and there's speculation the Germans oppose sending the supplies to Ukraine ...
Bit more from this OSINT guy ...
A second RAF C-17 is heading towards Ukraine this evening, both deliberately avoided German airspace. I wonder if Germany is refusing flights with weapons for Ukraine access to their airspace.
Map from the OSINT guy
FJUvDBsXIAEBOZ1.jpg
🍿
 

Czech_pivo

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I think the only thing in question is where do the Russians seem fit to stop.

Dnieper might be the best case scenario, but they might just want to crush Ukraine wholesale if they see the opportunity
The Ukraine government is making some fairly bold statements. Not seeing anything from our side in making an attempt to water down or deny.

"In particular, we discuss cooperation with Canada, the United Kingdom, and the United States. The Minister of Foreign Affairs of Canada is currently making a visit to Kyiv. Canada and the United Kingdom confirmed that they would not react in any way to Putin's ultimatums to withdraw military training units from Ukraine. Moreover, their activities will continue and intensify," Stefanishyna said.

According to her, the Ukrainian side has no illusions that the NATO army will fight in our territory, while in the interests of the Allies to shore up Ukraine's defense capabilities. "This has also been confirmed," she said.

As noted, Ukraine is also in talks with a number of other NATO members to strengthen cooperation in the defense sphere. The Deputy PM refused to disclose details, noting these agreements began to be seriously discussed after the NATO-Ukraine Commission meeting.

 

The Bread Guy

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The Ukraine government is making some fairly bold statements ...
They have, but it's always the juggle between what was said, what was heard and what was shared with the media that make keeping track of this stuff (or any news story, for that matter) interesting.

Mind you, UKR has a history of "announcing" stuff involving the Canadians sooner than the official Canadian info-machine version comes out, too.
 

suffolkowner

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The inability to compete in the air domain still looks to be Ukraines major weakness, however with troop and equipment movements from the Central and Eastern Military Districts it sure looks like Russia is getting ready to throw everything at Ukraine. I would have to think that this would put some major pressure on the nuclear non proliferation agreement.
 

Czech_pivo

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The inability to compete in the air domain still looks to be Ukraines major weakness, however with troop and equipment movements from the Central and Eastern Military Districts it sure looks like Russia is getting ready to throw everything at Ukraine. I would have to think that this would put some major pressure on the nuclear non proliferation agreement.
There was an interesting snippet of information from some Sr Russian Officer where is said something like, ' we will take out their infrastructure from a distance, just like you do'.

If I can find that quote, I'll post it but I find it telling. It sounds like they are planning (or at least they want us to think this), to stand off (if it comes to a shooting war) and pound the Ukrainians from a safe distance to the point that organized resistance will be difficult and then drive right in.
 

Czech_pivo

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There was an interesting snippet of information from some Sr Russian Officer where is said something like, ' we will take out their infrastructure from a distance, just like you do'.

If I can find that quote, I'll post it but I find it telling. It sounds like they are planning (or at least they want us to think this), to stand off (if it comes to a shooting war) and pound the Ukrainians from a safe distance to the point that organized resistance will be difficult and then drive right in.
Found it -

“There will be no columns of tanks,” General Buzhinsky said in a phone interview. “They will just destroy all the Ukrainian infrastructure from the air, just like you do it.”
 
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