Ukraine - Superthread

[Altair]

With how ridiculous their demands already are, these talks seem like cover for me. I'd even wager the invasion happens before the talks to give them a stronger hand at the table.

Maybe, but I'm just going off of recent history right now. Georgia happened during the Olympics, Crimea happened right after the Olympics, so these talks happening in January with the Olympics in early February just seems too convenient for me to discount.

To me these talks are the last ditch effort from Russia showing the west and NATO how serious they are when it comes to invading Ukraine if their demands are not met, and a last ditch effort from the west to convey how much serious they are when it comes to sanctions and financial punishment if Russia goes ahead, while meeting none of the Russian demands.

 

[MilEME09]

Sanctions mean nothing to Russia, they are superficial in most cases. The threat from the US to cut Russia off from the banking transfer system is about the biggest thing yet, but it's still fairly week, Russia is king of finding loop holes and ways around Sanctions.

 

[Altair]

Sanctions mean nothing to Russia, they are superficial in most cases.

Absolutely.

The threat from the US to cut Russia off from the banking transfer system is about the biggest thing yet, but it's still fairly week, Russia is king of finding loop holes and ways around Sanctions.

Agreed, especially if they can still bank in China.

Which is why I say the west has been playing this incredibly poorly. They needed to threaten Russia militarily to get them to back down. Barring that, they needed to flood Ukraine with weapons. Barring that, they needed to fully cut Russian oil and gas out of the European market (with a marshall plan type effort to replace Russian oil and gas in Europe during the end of winter)

They will do none of that.

 

[YZT580]

Best way to break up NATO is having some members respond to article 5 and others deciding they will not.

If Russia invades Ukraine and Europe keeps buying gas then NATO is toast anyways.

 

[Altair]

If Russia invades Ukraine and Europe keeps buying gas then NATO is toast anyways.

NATO 1949-2022

RIP

 

[CBH99]

If Russia invades Ukraine and Europe keeps buying gas then NATO is toast anyways.

Putin must realize this.

And much of Europe doesn’t have a choice but to keep buying gas. Especially during this time of year.

 

[The Bread Guy]

Some Russian troops reportedly withdraw from Ukraine border area

Russia's Interfax news, citing the military, reports that 10,000 troops are returning to their "permanent deployment points" from the border region.

www.npr.org

an easing maybe or more deception?

Good question ....

Recent media reports about Russia withdrawing 10,000 troops from near Ukraine are inaccurate and primarily a result of misleading Western reporting, not a Russian misinformation campaign. Russia’s Southern Military District (SMD) stated on December 25 that over 10,000 personnel from unspecified SMD units finished exercises in Rostov, Kuban, Crimea, Astrakhan, Volgograd, Stavropol, "in the Republics of the North Caucasus," Armenia, Abkhazia, and South Ossetia, and would redeploy to their permanent garrisons on December 25.[1] Kremlin media did not prominently cover the SMD announcement as it would if this were a Russian information campaign.

The SMD statement did not frame this development as a de-escalation against Ukraine, and in fact, stressed the high readiness level of the SMD’s forces. The statement claims that the SMD units completed training, that the equipment they used will be fully serviced and brought back into readiness before the end of 2021 “for further operation according to the plan for the winter training period,” and states that SMD units will be assigned new tasks to maintain high combat readiness to be able to respond to possible “emergency situations” during the New Year holidays ...

What else was happening in the broader neighbourhood, according to the RUS MoD English-language info-machine? (all links are to archived versions of the articles to avoid clicking on a RUS server)

• "Baltic Fleet marines eliminate saboteurs in Kaliningrad region"
• "A detachment of ships of the Black Sea Fleet passed the Strait of Gibraltar and entered the waters of the Mediterranean Sea"
• "The Su-27SM3 crews of the Southern Military District worked out fighter cover of an air patrol over the Black Sea"

 

[MilEME09]

Good question ....

What else was happening in the broader neighbourhood, according to the RUS MoD English-language info-machine? (all links are to archived versions of the articles to avoid clicking on a RUS server)

• "Baltic Fleet marines eliminate saboteurs in Kaliningrad region"
• "A detachment of ships of the Black Sea Fleet passed the Strait of Gibraltar and entered the waters of the Mediterranean Sea"
• "The Su-27SM3 crews of the Southern Military District worked out fighter cover of an air patrol over the Black Sea"

Seems like more posturing, my question is, are they stock piling fuel, munitions, and supplies near the front? Russia hasn't been known for having a good logistics train since the fall of the soviet union. While I have heard they have gotten better, it's not what it once was, and I question how long they could supply large scale operations.

 

[Brad Sallows]

Europe should agree to let Russia have part, or even all of Ukraine. Russian ambition will end there, and Europe will enjoy peace in our time.

 

[Humphrey Bogart]

Seems like more posturing, my question is, are they stock piling fuel, munitions, and supplies near the front? Russia hasn't been known for having a good logistics train since the fall of the soviet union. While I have heard they have gotten better, it's not what it once was, and I question how long they could supply large scale operations.

I don't know, they moved a 100,000 soldiers and with photos like these:

They clearly do logistics. Russian logistics is centered on rail transport though and their gauge is only available in Eastern Europe. They do maintain 10 railway brigades and have the ability to lay and repair track.

Their rail gauges run in to Belarus, Ukraine and the Baltic States. They have the ability to move a lot of equipment relatively quickly over long distances in these areas. Outside of that, they would need to rely on trucks.

 

[MilEME09]

I don't know, they moved a 100,000 soldiers and with photos like these:

They clearly do logistics. Russian logistics is centered on rail transport though and their gauge is only available in Eastern Europe. They do maintain 10 railway brigades and have the ability to lay and repair track.

Their rail gauges run in to Belarus, Ukraine and the Baltic States. They have the ability to move a lot of equipment relatively quickly over long distances in these areas. Outside of that, they would need to rely on trucks.

Notice though the lack of a dumping program, you aren't seeing large caches of anything, lots of trucks, but they could be empty

 

[Czech_pivo]

Europe should agree to let Russia have part, or even all of Ukraine. Russian ambition will end there, and Europe will enjoy peace in our time.

Wow.
You could have been used in March of ‘38. Worked wonders for the Czechs didn’t it?

 

[Brad Sallows]

I thought the sarcasm inherent in a "peace in our time" reference would have been obvious...

Given enough time, all the things people list under "never again" become tolerable. Talk is much cheaper than effective deterrence, but effective deterrence is much cheaper than war.

 

[YZT580]

I don't know, they moved a 100,000 soldiers and with photos like these:

They clearly do logistics. Russian logistics is centered on rail transport though and their gauge is only available in Eastern Europe. They do maintain 10 railway brigades and have the ability to lay and repair track.

Their rail gauges run in to Belarus, Ukraine and the Baltic States. They have the ability to move a lot of equipment relatively quickly over long distances in these areas. Outside of that, they would need to rely on trucks.

and you don't think the tracks in Ukraine are already wired?

 

[Blackadder1916]

Notice though the lack of a dumping program, you aren't seeing large caches of anything, lots of trucks, but they could be empty

Russian Ground Forces may have changed considerably in the several decades since I paid close attention to the limitations of Soviet supply trains. Back then it was as described in this report from the 1970s.

"At division and regimental levels, mobile supply dumps are established approximately 30 km and 15 km respectively from the FEBA. Supplies are kept loaded on motor transportation as much as possible to insure rapid redeployment forward. Off loading is kept to a minimum and if done , the supplies are usually palletized."

Apparently not much has changed as discussed in this recent commentary from War On The Rocks FEEDING THE BEAR: A CLOSER LOOK AT RUSSIAN ARMY LOGISTICS AND THE FAIT ACCOMPLI.

The commercial satellite photos are apparently showing "tactical battle groups" so it is not surprising that "dumps" (as we know them) are not visible nearby. What would be more telling is the locations of these troop concentrations. An analysis of what rail heads are in the communities nearby and the road networks that emanate from those railheads would tell the real story about their logistical chain.

 

[The Bread Guy]

I thought the sarcasm inherent in a "peace in our time" reference would have been obvious...

I caught the ref, but I guess not everyone did.

Given enough time, all the things people list under "never again" become tolerable ...

 

[Czech_pivo]

and you don't think the tracks in Ukraine are already wired?

Have to wonder in the Ukkie’s have a few tricks up their sleeves as well. Won’t be surprised if they have people in Russia who would be tasked with blowing some of the rail lines leading up to the border regions. UON-B managed to last over 10yrs after 1945 in the Ukraine as partisans blowing up the odd Soviet supply column or assassinating a Commissar here or there.

 

[OldSolduer]

Europe should agree to let Russia have part, or even all of Ukraine. Russian ambition will end there, and Europe will enjoy peace in our time.

I think we've seen this play a few times - and it rarely worked out.

 

[OldSolduer]

Given enough time, all the things people list under "never again" become tolerable. Talk is much cheaper than effective deterrence, but effective deterrence is much cheaper than war.

Never again - genocide. Not curbed at all.

 

[MilEME09]

I think we've seen this play a few times - and it rarely worked out.

Georgia, Crimea, Donbas, how many more times will we let it play out?