Ukraine - Superthread

[suffolkowner]

My math may be a bit off, but at approx 9 billion cubic metres daily use of natural gas for Germany, that would take approximately 100 LNG tankers a day for Germany alone.

so not likely then?!

Bloomberg - Are you a robot?

again too bad we can't help and take advantage of the situation

 

[MilEME09]

so not likely then?!

Bloomberg - Are you a robot?

again too bad we can't help and take advantage of the situation

Unfortunately the only alternative would be a long pipe line via green land and Iceland to the UK. Such a mega project would be an engineering nightmare. Canada and the US could provides Europe's natural gas needs, we just can't get it there for now

 

[suffolkowner]

Unfortunately the only alternative would be a long pipe line via green land and Iceland to the UK. Such a mega project would be an engineering nightmare. Canada and the US could provides Europe's natural gas needs, we just can't get it there for now

Yeah not likely to happen if it hasn't already. I know theres always been lots of talk of LNG through BC but has there ever been any real attempts to move more NG east?

 

[The Bread Guy]

If we were smart, and that's a big if, create and fast track a project to get LNG to Europe, if Europe can get off Russian gas, its check mate for russias economy

"We" would have to be both smart and quick ...

 

[Altair]

If we were smart, and that's a big if, create and fast track a project to get LNG to Europe, if Europe can get off Russian gas, its check mate for russias economy

Can you imagine the catastrophic failure that would happen if after such a costly mega project Russia and Europe mend fences and Russian oil and gas would be much cheaper than NA oil and gas due to not needing to recoup costs from said mega project?

 

[suffolkowner]

I'm curious how Europe is going to compete with China for Russia's oil and gas in the near future?

 

[suffolkowner]

Some Russian troops reportedly withdraw from Ukraine border area

Russia's Interfax news, citing the military, reports that 10,000 troops are returning to their "permanent deployment points" from the border region.

www.npr.org

an easing maybe or more deception?

 

[Altair]

I'm curious how Europe is going to compete with China for Russia's oil and gas in the near future?

Probably transition off of it before China goes all in on it.

 

[Brad Sallows]

But she becomes an informed voice at the table able to share the realities of the situation in Ukraine in a way that maybe someone else may not.

Based on being an exchange student almost 40 years ago, or something more recent?

 

[Humphrey Bogart]

If we were smart, and that's a big if, create and fast track a project to get LNG to Europe, if Europe can get off Russian gas, its check mate for russias economy

Except we aren't smart:

Philip Cross: A lump of hydrocarbon you really want in your stocking

This importance of low-cost energy to economic growth is seldom acknowledged in trendy calls for a transition from fossil fuels to renewables

financialpost.com

Canadians often seem embarrassed by their wealth of natural resources, especially the oil sands. Other countries, such as the U.S. and Russia, view their energy resources as a strategic asset. This is evident in the panicked reaction to Michigan’s threat to cut off oil shipments to Ontario through the Line 5 pipeline or Russia’s regular manipulation of natural gas exports to extract favours from client nations in Europe.

 

[YZT580]

Except we aren't smart:

Philip Cross: A lump of hydrocarbon you really want in your stocking

This importance of low-cost energy to economic growth is seldom acknowledged in trendy calls for a transition from fossil fuels to renewables

financialpost.com

We can't even agree on a way to increase shipments to the east coast. Witness the pipeline blockage at the Quebec border.

 

[The Bread Guy]

A few tidbits (archive links provided in case links don't work or if you don't want to link to a Russian server) ....

• "Training Civilians, Ukraine Nurtures a Resistance in Waiting" (NY Times - archived link)
• "Russian mercenaries have deployed to separatist-controlled eastern Ukraine in recent weeks to bolster defences against Ukrainian government forces as tensions between Moscow and the West rise, four sources have told Reuters ..."
• "Officials from the self-proclaimed Donbass republic have repeatedly accused Kiev of using foreign mercenaries and neo-Nazi volunteer battalions to compensate for a dearth of conscripts willing to fight ..." (RUS state media - archived link)
• "Russian MFA expects world community to weigh in on neo-Nazism in Ukraine" (RUS state media - archive link)
• "Russian energy giant Gazprom has rejected accusations that Moscow is limiting gas deliveries to Europe and denounced Germany's resale of gas to Poland amid soaring prices. Poland this week accused Moscow of having stopped its deliveries via the Yamal-Europe pipeline that sends Russian gas to Western Europe, accusing Gazprom of "manipulation" ..." (AFP via RUS independent media)
• "If Ukraine chooses to use military force to resolve the crisis in Donbas, Russia will defend the region and the people living in it, Sergei Tsekov, a Senator of the Federation Council said ..." (Pravda.ru - yeah, THAT Pravda -- archive link)

 

[The Bread Guy]

We'll see ....

• "The United States and Russia will hold much-anticipated talks in January, a White House official told AFP Monday, with the rivals due to negotiate on nuclear arms control and mounting tensions over Ukraine ..." (Agence-France Presse)
• "U.S. and Russian officials will hold security talks on Jan. 10 to discuss concerns about their respective military activity and confront rising tensions over Ukraine, the two countries said ..." (Reuters)
• "The United States and Russia will hold talks in January about nuclear arms control and tensions along the Russia-Ukraine border ..." (Voice of America, U.S.-government-funded/"state" media)
• "The Russian-US consultations on security guarantees are scheduled for January 10 in Geneva, Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Ryabkov told TASS on Tuesday ..." (RUS state media - archive link)

 

[CBH99]

We'll see ....

• "The United States and Russia will hold much-anticipated talks in January, a White House official told AFP Monday, with the rivals due to negotiate on nuclear arms control and mounting tensions over Ukraine ..." (Agence-France Presse)
• "U.S. and Russian officials will hold security talks on Jan. 10 to discuss concerns about their respective military activity and confront rising tensions over Ukraine, the two countries said ..." (Reuters)
• "The United States and Russia will hold talks in January about nuclear arms control and tensions along the Russia-Ukraine border ..." (Voice of America, U.S.-government-funded/"state" media)
• "The Russian-US consultations on security guarantees are scheduled for January 10 in Geneva, Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Ryabkov told TASS on Tuesday ..." (RUS state media - archive link)

Talking is better than not talking. So that’s good news for all of us.

I hate to say it, I have more faith that the Russian side will come very prepared with fairly accurate info.

The US side will show up with fairly accurate info, but not a plan with the kind of depth that Russia will have.



Putin didn’t get to where he is because he’s dumb. It’ll be interesting to see how it all falls into place.

 

[CBH99]

Except we aren't smart:

Philip Cross: A lump of hydrocarbon you really want in your stocking

This importance of low-cost energy to economic growth is seldom acknowledged in trendy calls for a transition from fossil fuels to renewables

financialpost.com

We aren’t even close to smart.

We are the well dressed, articulate person who smiles and shakes hands. Is charismatic and charming, and who makes the company they are with at ease.

But when you take a step back and objectively listen to what that person says, they are dumb as a f**king brick.

I feel like Canada, in it’s current form, is that person. Ontario shouldn’t have to care whether Michigan turns off the oil taps…



And if Ottawa can tell Alberta NOT to build pipelines, can it also not tell Quebec TO build pipelines?

Alberta oil projects are among some of the most environmentally friendly in the world. Were they always? No.

The industry, culture, technology, and regulations have changed drastically since then.

Can Saudi Arabia say the same?

 

[Spencer100]

We aren’t even close to smart.

We are the well dressed, articulate person who smiles and shakes hands. Is charismatic and charming, and who makes the company they are with at ease.

But when you take a step back and objectively listen to what that person says, they are dumb as a f**king brick.

I feel like Canada, in it’s current form, is that person. Ontario shouldn’t have to care whether Michigan turns off the oil taps…



And if Ottawa can tell Alberta NOT to build pipelines, can it also not tell Quebec TO build pipelines?

Alberta oil projects are among some of the most environmentally friendly in the world. Were they always? No.

The industry, culture, technology, and regulations have changed drastically since then.

Can Saudi Arabia say the same?

Canada has been played. We have been out maneuvered by US and others interested in Canadian oil remaining in the ground. Using Environmental groups as fronts to stop pipelines and new development. Every time the industry improves they move the goal posts. Railways pay money to environment groups to stop pipelines, SA pays First Nations to stop oil sands development etc. Others pay to stop other development because Canadian oil is sold at a discount into the US. Its a game and we are less than pawns. Behind every "environmental" group or First nations lobby is a international financial backer in the end. We let this happen. Because the power brokers in the big cities are one paid off, two using it as a political wedge, or three true believers and useful idiots.

 

[KevinB]

Mayhaps, but what really can Canada do, other than pursue sanctions, which the Russians will ignore.

Move 1 CBMG to the Ukraine for a Partnership for Peace Exercise.
Sure it would be militarily insignificant, but Russia wouldn't want to do much to a fairly benign NATO country, because of the potential the US and UK would use that as an Article #5

 

[MilEME09]

Canada has been played. We have been out maneuvered by US and others interested in Canadian oil remaining in the ground. Using Environmental groups as fronts to stop pipelines and new development. Every time the industry improves they move the goal posts. Railways pay money to environment groups to stop pipelines, SA pays First Nations to stop oil sands development etc. Others pay to stop other development because Canadian oil is sold at a discount into the US. Its a game and we are less than pawns. Behind every "environmental" group or First nations lobby is a international financial backer in the end. We let this happen. Because the power brokers in the big cities are one paid off, two using it as a political wedge, or three true believers and useful idiots.

Part of the problem is we let these groups enjoy non-profit status, if they had to pay tax on the millions in donations, and had to have public record keeping, we could follow the money.

 

[CBH99]

Move 1 CBMG to the Ukraine for a Partnership for Peace Exercise.
Sure it would be militarily insignificant, but Russia wouldn't want to do much to a fairly benign NATO country, because of the potential the US and UK would use that as an Article #5

My emoji says insightful. It was meant vid genius.

Smart strategic play.

 

[MilEME09]

My emoji says insightful. It was meant vid genius.

Smart strategic play.

Top it off with a couple ships rotating in and out of Odessa, and some F18s to support 1 CMBG, and you have a potent force