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Ukraine - Superthread

Interesting piece by Gwynne Dyer on who would be the best replacement for Putin when/if he is deposed.

. . . Who would be the least objectionable candidate to take over in Moscow? . . .

. . . Well, then, how about Yevgeny Prigozhin, leader of the Wagner Group private army?
He’s a thug, to be sure, but you’ll never hear him spouting the kind of fake geopolitical nonsense the others talk, nor the mystical pseudo-religious stuff either. He knows how to run both a business and an army. And most importantly, Prigozhin has credit as a patriot for capturing Bakhmut, but no implicit obligation to fight the war until the end.

I haven't paid much attention to Gwynne Dyer in the last few decades, but his characterization of Prigozhin as a simple "thug" (with management skills) may be a bit of an understatement. Though everything, these days, should be taken with a grain of salt, I noticed this more robust appraisal of Prigozhin on Radio Free Europe.


". . .But I am afraid that somebody even worse can win this battle. And that will be the real challenge for the West. How is the West going to act? Because imagine Prigozhin wins the battle, and now the country with the second-biggest arsenal of nuclear weapons is in the hands of a notorious criminal, a criminal who is even worse than Putin, a crazy criminal, a sadist, a guy who loves torturing people and killing them. . . ."
 
I haven't paid much attention to Gwynne Dyer in the last few decades, but his characterization of Prigozhin as a simple "thug" (with management skills) may be a bit of an understatement. Though everything, these days, should be taken with a grain of salt, I noticed this more robust appraisal of Prigozhin on Radio Free Europe.


". . .But I am afraid that somebody even worse can win this battle. And that will be the real challenge for the West. How is the West going to act? Because imagine Prigozhin wins the battle, and now the country with the second-biggest arsenal of nuclear weapons is in the hands of a notorious criminal, a criminal who is even worse than Putin, a crazy criminal, a sadist, a guy who loves torturing people and killing them. . . ."
I would guess Russia has a lot of disgruntled Col’s and Majors (and below) who may think that von Stauffenberg would be a good role model.
 
For the cost of a six pack of old F16's....

Lend lease less and put the $ value up on Tor as the prize for the individual or group that liquidates Putin and a list of his henchmen and enablers. I imagine that if $25m was appropriate for Osama $100m should stir the pot a bit.

Could even use some of tbe seized funds or asset sales money in the guise of "Returning it to the Russian People" if you want a figleaf of plausible deniability.
 
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ALLEGED Ukrainian drone strike in Moscow. Physical damage appears minimal.

A) Ukrainian SF deep in Russia launched a low power drone at a wealthy suburb in violation of their CinC's directives that only military targets in Russia would be targeted

B) Hardline Russians staged a(n inexperienced amateurish) false flag attack to push greater efforts to be made against Ukraine

C) Russian nationalists staged a(n inexperienced amateurish) attack to nudge the elite into pressuring the Kremlin to end the SMO

D) Early stages if a struggle between factions of the siloviki for succession dominance under the cover of the fog of war

E) None of the above

Votes?
 
ALLEGED Ukrainian drone strike in Moscow. Physical damage appears minimal.

A) Ukrainian SF deep in Russia launched a low power drone at a wealthy suburb in violation of their CinC's directives that only military targets in Russia would be targeted

B) Hardline Russians staged a(n inexperienced amateurish) false flag attack to push greater efforts to be made against Ukraine

C) Russian nationalists staged a(n inexperienced amateurish) attack to nudge the elite into pressuring the Kremlin to end the SMO

D) Early stages if a struggle between factions of the siloviki for succession dominance under the cover of the fog of war

E) None of the above

Votes?
F) Aliens....
 
ALLEGED Ukrainian drone strike in Moscow. Physical damage appears minimal.

A) Ukrainian SF deep in Russia launched a low power drone at a wealthy suburb in violation of their CinC's directives that only military targets in Russia would be targeted

B) Hardline Russians staged a(n inexperienced amateurish) false flag attack to push greater efforts to be made against Ukraine

C) Russian nationalists staged a(n inexperienced amateurish) attack to nudge the elite into pressuring the Kremlin to end the SMO

D) Early stages if a struggle between factions of the siloviki for succession dominance under the cover of the fog of war

E) None of the above

Votes?
It was a teenaged German pilot flying a Cessna that ran out of fuel and crashed in Moscow.
 
Old Gwynne is just Shit disturbing as no really knows what the future Moscovy will really look like. But it is probably only going to be Moscovy and many independent potato planting Duchy's.
I'm honestly still a fan of Dyer, he's one of the few commentator's I've seen that occasionally comes back to admit he got something wrong but mostly because he makes interesting observations more than push opinions. That short piece is just saying that Prixzhgohin (I'm not bothering to look it up) is the least bad of the small rogues gallery that has been most visible. The inference I made was that it would be a good idea to see what the likely replacements are before getting too excited about Putin losing power. And maybe consider if it's worth giving someone else not in the current crop of candidates a quiet assist.
 
ALLEGED Ukrainian drone strike in Moscow. Physical damage appears minimal.

A) Ukrainian SF deep in Russia launched a low power drone at a wealthy suburb in violation of their CinC's directives that only military targets in Russia would be targeted

B) Hardline Russians staged a(n inexperienced amateurish) false flag attack to push greater efforts to be made against Ukraine

C) Russian nationalists staged a(n inexperienced amateurish) attack to nudge the elite into pressuring the Kremlin to end the SMO

D) Early stages if a struggle between factions of the siloviki for succession dominance under the cover of the fog of war

E) None of the above

Votes?
G) Mathias Rust has found another way to tweak the Kremlin's nose.

 
That short piece is just saying that Prixzhgohin (I'm not bothering to look it up) is the least bad of the small rogues gallery that has been most visible. The inference I made was that it would be a good idea to see what the likely replacements are before getting too excited about Putin losing power. And maybe consider if it's worth giving someone else not in the current crop of candidates a quiet assist.
Prigozhin is competent and evil and at the top of his game right now. You do not want him in power. Putin is well past his game and is losing it bit by bit. Had Putin retired in 2010, he would likely gone down in history as one of the "Great Russian leaders" Now his legacy is toast. There is a movement in Russia to divorce all ties with the West, they seem to think they can do that and not becomes China's B*tch. I suspect they are quite wrong. But as long as the elite benefit in the near term, they will do it.
 
Prigozhin is competent and evil and at the top of his game right now. You do not want him in power. Putin is well past his game and is losing it bit by bit. Had Putin retired in 2010, he would likely gone down in history as one of the "Great Russian leaders" Now his legacy is toast. There is a movement in Russia to divorce all ties with the West, they seem to think they can do that and not becomes China's B*tch. I suspect they are quite wrong. But as long as the elite benefit in the near term, they will do it.
I'm not sure that we want to see Putin replaced at this point. It might be better for Russia to crash and burn 1991 style and then rebuild in hopefully a more pro-west direction.
 
Prigozhin is competent and evil and at the top of his game right now. You do not want him in power.
Agreed. I was just saying that when someone points out to me that the alternative to my shit sandwich is moldy bread from the compost and some bloody ice chipped out of the freezer I conclude that it's time to do the groceries. I usually read Dyer's short newspaper editorial sized commentaries through that sort of sarcastic lens. I don't know in what proportions of intent and accident he mixes passive aggressiveness, irony, innuendo, or advocacy. But I do find him interesting and entertaining the way I read him.
 
I'm not sure that we want to see Putin replaced at this point. It might be better for Russia to crash and burn 1991 style and then rebuild in hopefully a more pro-west direction.
Better the Devil you know than a new devil.....
 
Games of thrones

He who moves first tends to die first. Better to sit quietly in the corner, not looking like a threat and see which way the wind is blowing and who's moving the chess pieces around before you strike and then you go all in.
 
Get some....

Britain Breaks with Biden on Ukraine​


The Ukrainian government has not taken responsibility for the attack on Russia’s Belgorod region last week, which was supported by artillery fire from inside Ukraine. Nor has Ukraine claimed credit for the drone strikes that are becoming a regular feature of life in the Russian capital or similar attacks on Russian infrastructure that have been ongoing for months. Why would it? One of Kyiv’s foremost Western sponsors, the Biden administration, has repeatedly warned Ukraine against striking Russian-based targets — even those that serve as staging areas for the invasion of Ukrainian territory.


John Kirby, the White House’s National Security Council coordinator for strategic communications, reiterated that warning as recently as last week. “We don’t want to encourage or enable that,” he told reporters. “We certainly don’t want any U.S.-made equipment used to attack Russian soil.” But another of Kyiv’s crucial Western backers, Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s government, apparently disagrees with the Biden administration’s cautious approach.

Not only does Ukraine have the “legitimate right to defend itself,” said U.K. defense minister James Cleverly on Tuesday, but Kyiv also reserves “the right to project force beyond its borders to undermine Russia’s ability to project force into Ukraine itself.”

“So legitimate military targets beyond its own border are part of Ukraine’s self-defense,” Cleverly continued. “And we should recognize that.”

The Biden administration might draw a fine distinction between Ukraine’s legitimate interest in attacking targets inside Russia that support the invasion of its territory and the White House’s opposition to using hardware it provides Ukraine for those operations, even though U.S.-provided weapons platforms are most capable of executing those operations. That is, at least, a discrepancy that might be teased out from the comments issued by Biden administration officials. But Cleverly’s assertion of Ukraine’s legitimate targeting strategy exemplifies the clarity that should meet Russia’s assault on the U.S.-led world order: In invading and annexing Ukrainian territory, Russia has forfeited the expectation that Ukraine must observe its sovereign borders.

For nearly a year, Ukraine’s defenders have expressed frustration over the diplomatic restrictions imposed on its capacity to disrupt Russian-based staging areas. “Russians are using [Multiple Launch Rocket Systems] like Grad, Smerch or Uragan from their land on civilian populations in Kharkiv,” Ukrainian defense minister Oleksii Reznikov told the Wall Street Journal last June. “We need to find solutions to this. It’s a problem.” The anti-missile batteries Kyiv long ago requested and only recently received have neutralized some of the threat posed by long-range Russian ordnance fired from inside the Federation proper, but only partially.

But the barrage of attacks on Ukraine coming from inside Russia has intensified. The fusillade is growing more indiscriminate and more reckless than what Ukraine has previously had to endure. And yet, to avoid offending the Biden administration, the Kyiv government must pretend it cannot respond in kind.

The Biden administration seems comfortable with this fiction. The White House seems increasingly invested in the evidentiarily lacking assumption that Russia is holding some escalatory tactic in reserve if the red lines administration officials draw in their own heads are crossed. But the British government has had enough of the charade. Good for them.

If our objective is to see this war concluded on terms favorable to Ukraine — and, by extension, the West — as soon as possible, the Biden administration should follow London’s lead.


 
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