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Turmoil in Libya (2011) and post-Gaddafi blowback

CDN Aviator said:
Last rumour i got was GCS/GCM depending on individual role.
If that's the case then from what I have heard most of the crews will get the GSM until they get at least 30 sorties.  Then they would be able to trade up and get the GCS.  We find that our AWACs crews are struggling to get 30 sorties in 4 months overseas.  Now that they have moved up the deployments to 6 months they shouldn't have any problems.
 
Libyan rebels say military commander killed
Article Link

The Associated Press

Date: Thursday Jul. 28, 2011 7:08 PM ET

BENGHAZI, Libya — The head of the Libyan rebel armed forces was shot and killed Thursday just before arriving for questioning by rebel authorities, their political leader said in a carefully worded statement to reporters that gave few details on who was behind the killing.

Adding to the confusion, the rebels had said hours earlier they had already detained the commander, Abdel-Fattah Younis, on suspicion his family might still have ties to the regime of Moammar Gadhafi, raising questions about whether he might have been assassinated by his own side.

Such a scenario would signal a troubling split within the rebel movement at a time when their forces have failed to make battlefield gains despite nearly four months of NATO airstrikes against Gahdafi's forces. It could also shake the confidence of the United States, Britain and several dozen other nations that have recognized the rebel council as Libya's legitimate leaders.

Announcing the killing at a press conference where he did not take questions, Mustafa Abdul-Jalil, head of the rebels' National Transitional Council, called Younis "one of the heroes of the 17th of February revolution," a name marking the date of early protests against Gadhafi's regime.

He said two of the commander's aides, both colonels, were also killed in the attack by gunmen and that rebels had arrested the head of the group behind the attack. He did not say what he thought motivated the killers.

Younis was Gadhafi's interior minister before defecting to the rebels early in the uprising, which began in February. His abandoning of the Libyan leader raised Western hopes that the growing opposition could succeed in forcing out the country's ruler of more than four decades.

Rebel forces, however, held mixed views of the man, with some praising him for defecting and others criticizing his long association with Gadhafi.

Hours before the commander's death was announced, rebel military spokesman Mohammed al-Rijali had said Younis was taken for interrogation from his operations room near the front line to the de facto rebel capital of Benghazi in eastern Libya.
More on link
 
They are wars apart but while he never pounded the hard-baked fields of Panjwaii on foot, Lt.-Col. Daniel McLeod shares more with Canadian soldiers returning from Kandahar than he cares to admit.

As a career fighter pilot flying the air force's premier CF-18 jets, McLeod recently got a cold introduction to the stark choices that have to be made in the electronic-twilight environment of today's wars.

High above the vast deserts of Libya, McLeod spotted what he thought was rocket fire in the distance — an impression quickly confirmed by drones or other surveillance aircraft that crowd the sky near the embattled country in north Africa.

He was what the air force calls "feet dry" over the coast on a interdiction mission _ an armed air patrol that looks for targets of opportunity on the ground. It's a task that makes up about 80 per cent of the missions flown by Canada as part of the NATO operation to dislodge Libyan strongman Moammar Gadhafi.

And on that day, McLeod thought he had a target.

"You could see there was a battle raging on the ground and we were there and able to interdict, when required," McLeod, the 409 Squadron detachment commander, said in a recent interview ....
Source:  The Canadian Press, 28 Jul 11

Canada has joined an air war of a different kind in the skies over Libya, one where persuasion and sometimes insults are the weapons.

Canadian CP-140 Aurora surveillance planes recently started broadcasting propaganda messages aimed at forces loyal to Libyan strongman Moammar Gadhafi.

It's a psychological warfare operation, or PSYOPS, initially started by the Americans but now overseen by NATO _ the kind of mission western militaries are reluctant to talk about openly.

The Canadian broadcasts are relatively benign in comparison to some of the harsher messages NATO has aimed at Gadhafi's troops, in which women's voices are telling them to stop "killing the children."

The Canadian messages, in English, are read hourly during patrols along the Libyan coast over AM/FM frequencies that Libyans usually monitor.

"For your safety return to your family and your home," says the message, which can be heard over unencrypted frequencies the military uses to broadcast basic information.

"The Gadhafi regime forces are violating United Nations resolution 1973."

The message goes on to urge Gadhafi's troops not to take part in further hostilities and not to harm their fellow countrymen.

The Libyans have apparently yelled back telling the "Yankee pigdogs" to go home. On at least one occasion last week, an Arabic sounding voice challenged the broadcasts.

"Who are you talking to?" the voice asked.

"Anyone who will listen," replied the other voice who had read the message.

Gadhafi's regime has tried to jam the transmissions.

A Canadian air force spokeswoman wouldn't talk about the broadcasts, calling it "a NATO policy." She referred all questions to the alliance's southern headquarters in Naples.

NATO officials were also reluctant to talk and asked not to be quoted on the record ....
Source:  The Canadian Press, 29 Jul 11
 
Canadian CP-140 Aurora surveillance planes recently started broadcasting propaganda messages aimed at forces loyal to Libyan strongman Moammar Gadhafi.

"Recently"  ::)
 
Tripoli, Libya (CNN) -- Libyan government forces fired a missile at an Italian warship in the Mediterranean Sea on Wednesday in a rare attack on the NATO fleet offshore, a government spokesman said.
The frigate Bersagliere was about 19 kilometers (12 miles) off the Libyan city of Zlitan when the missile fell harmlessly into the sea about 2 km away, the Italian defense ministry and NATO reported

(...)

link
 
http://www.ctv.ca/CTVNews/TopStories/20110809/libya-diplomats-attempt-to-stay-canada-110809/

At least two of four Libyan diplomats are attempting to stay in Canada after Ottawa ordered the officials out of the country within five days.

The two diplomats are trying to claim refugee status or political asylum to avoid returning to Libya where nearly six months of unrest continues.

They seemed more than happy to support the regime while they were safe. Nothing more than opportunists, and I hope they get removed ASAP.
 
The tide is turning against Qaddafi again even more now:

Defense News link

Gadhafi Unable to Launch Offensive: NATO

AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE
Published: 11 Aug 2011 13:55     

MONTREAL - Forces loyal to Libyan strongman Moammar Gadhafi are no longer able to launch a credible military offensive, the commander of NATO-led Libyan operations told AFP in an interview Aug. 11.

"The Gadhafi regime's forces continue to be weakened, both in strength and their will to fight," Canada's Lieutenant-General Charles Bouchard said, speaking from his Italy headquarters, as rebel troops made new advances.

"They are no longer able to launch a credible offensive," he added.

NATO was authorized in March by U.N. Security Council resolution 1973 to defend Libya's civilian population from attacks by Colonel Gadhafi's regime, which faced a popular revolt after 42 years in power.

As NATO-led airstrikes have helped the rebels on the ground without managing to decisively turn the tide in the conflict, Gadhafi has brought in fighters from other African countries to bolster his embattled forces.

"We're seeing lots of mercenaries, ruthless mercenaries that come from other countries and are enlisted by Gadhafi's forces to inflict extreme violence on men, women and children," Bouchard said.

"The recruiting of these mercenaries continues," he said. "There is a growing demand for their services which lends credibility to the fact that Gadhafi's forces are being affected by NATO's actions as well as defections of generals, policemen and even politicians."

The rebels, meanwhile, have treaded water since scoring early victories that led to their control of Cyrenaica in the west, and enclaves in Tripoli.

Today, there's "activity" on three fronts, in Brega in the east, and in Misrata and Jebel Nefoussa in the west. Gadhafi forces are "shooting blindly on civilians," Bouchard said.

"On the three fronts, we're seeing changes as anti-Gadhafi forces march forward to stop the attacks on the population," he added.


Gadhafi's regime this week accused NATO airstrikes on the village of Majer of killing 85 people, including women and children, south of the disputed city of Zliten.

"I can assure you that the target was a legitimate one that contained mercenaries, a command centre and 4x4 vehicles modified with automatic weapons, rocket launchers or mortars," Bouchard said.

"I cannot believe that 85 civilians were present when we struck in the wee hours of the morning and given our intelligence" on the target, he added.

"I can assure you that there wasn't 85 civilians present, but I cannot assure you that there were none at all."

"Frankly, I cannot say if there were any civilian deaths or how many," said the general, who accused Gadhafi forces of often leaving already dead corpses at military sites after they have been leveled by NATO airstrikes to make the bombings appear like blunders.

The NATO mission is due to wrap up in September unless it is extended by states participating in it, including Britain, Canada, France, Italy and the United States. Their governments are under increasing fiscal pressure to pull back.

And if the mission "Unified Protector" is not renewed? "It's just speculation," said Bouchard. "My goal is to bring this conflict to an end before the mission is over."
 
From the the looks of it, they may just be advisors....

U.S. Marines fighting with rebels in Misurata - Video
Added by Diana Gariany on August 17, 2011
Article Link

A U.S. Marine talking on what they are going to do & how they are going to aid the rebels! oops I thought Obama said that no U.S. Army/Marine would put foot on the ground of Libya.
Here is the proof that American Troops are on the ground of the Libyan soil!
end
 
GAP said:
From the the looks of it, they may just be advisors....

U.S. Marines fighting with rebels in Misurata - Video
Added by Diana Gariany on August 17, 2011
Article Link

A U.S. Marine talking on what they are going to do & how they are going to aid the rebels! oops I thought Obama said that no U.S. Army/Marine would put foot on the ground of Libya.
Here is the proof that American Troops are on the ground of the Libyan soil!
end

All i see in that video is a guy wearing a helmet and speaking English..........
 
Dave

I'm with you. He could be a journalist or a rep from a NGO. The last thing he probably is, is military.
 
Old Sweat said:
Dave

I'm with you. He could be a journalist or a rep from a NGO. The last thing he probably is, is military.
Agree with both of you.  Verbal mannerisms like "former soldier guy" and talking about "plasters" instead of "bandages" or "dressings" point away from U.S. military, while talking about "injuries we get" sorta suggests a medical NGO-ite going someplace to help tend to said injuries.

Edited to add:  Check out one of the other videos on the same YouTube account, and by what sounds like the same guy on camera (face not visible):
http://www.youtube.com/user/hero3331000#p/a/u/0/8WasYqLKevE
and he talks about "I tried to start a line on the guy's left foot...."  Suggests medical NGO/MSF-esque guy, not a Marine.
 
There's no scaling back by #NATO. Strikes will continue until all conditions have been met. Qaddafi's days R #ed.

It is now official;
Twitter was the final nail in the coffin for proper spelling in the English language.
 
Things are moving very quick ... hourly now.
This morning, Reports had the rebels overtaking a military base 25 km outside Tripoli.
Early reports talked about uprising in Tripoli.

http://www.calgarysun.com/2011/08/18/libya-rebels-hit-hard-in-west

Rebels enter Tripoli, crowds celebrate in streets
By Ulf Laessing and Missy Ryan, Reuters
First posted: Sunday, August 21, 2011 3:06:59 MDT PM

AL-MAYA/TRIPOLI – Rebel fighters streamed into Tripoli as Moammar Gadhafi's forces collapsed and crowds took to the streets to celebrate, tearing down posters of the Libyan leader.

A convoy of rebels entered a western neighborhood of the city, firing their weapons into the air. Rebels said the whole of the city was under their control except Gadhafi's Bab Al-Aziziya-Jazeera stronghold, according to al-Jazeera Television.

Gadhafi made two audio addresses over state television calling on Libyans to fight off the rebels.

"I am afraid if we don't act, they will burn Tripoli," he said. "There will be no more water, food, electricity or freedom."

Gadhafi, a colorful and often brutal autocrat who has ruled Libya for over 40 years, said he was breaking out weapons stores to arm the population. His spokesman, Moussa Ibrahim, predicted a violent reckoning by the rebels.

"A massacre will be committed inside Tripoli if one side wins now, because the rebels have come with such hatred, such vendetta...Even if the leader leaves or steps down now, there will be a massacre."

NATO, which has backed the rebels with a bombing campaign, said the transition of power in Libya must be peaceful.

After a six-month civil war, the fall of Tripoli came quickly, with a carefully orchestrated uprising launched on Saturday night to coincide with the advance of rebel troops on three fronts. Fighting broke out after the call to prayer from the minarets of the mosques.

Rebel National Transitional Council Coordinator Adel Dabbechi confirmed that Gadhafi's younger son Saif Al-Islam had been captured. His eldest son Mohammed Al-Gadhafi had surrendered to rebel forces, he told Reuters............................







http://www.guardian.co.uk/global/middle-east-live/2011/aug/21/libya-syria-israel-middle-east-unrest


12.26am: Mahmoud Nacua, Libya's recently appointed charge d'affaires in London, sets out a rough timetable for what will happen next. He tells Sky News:

    We are confident that our people in Tripoli are very organised and they have planned how to keep everyone safe and everything will go smoothly as we see tonight and as we saw in the other cities which were liberated during the last six months. So we're very confident that our people will control every part of the city.

    The plan first of all is to have security. I think the National Transitional Council will come to Tripoli in a few days and they will start to establish a new national assembly, a new transitional government, to prepare for...the election of a permanent national assembly and it will take in the beginning about eight months, and will take in the whole about two years to start a new state, a constitutional, democratic state.

1.04am: Libyan rebels say they will rename central Libya's Green Square as Martyrs' Square, its original name, Al Jazeera reports. Jubilant opponents of Gaddafi are shooting at a poster of him.

12.56am: Rebel spokesman Mahmoud Shammam promises that Gaddafi will not be harmed and that the rebels want to see him stand trial in Libya. He tells Sky News:

    We're not going to put (supporters of the regime) on trial, we're going to tell them they are Libyan, they are our brothers and sisters and we are going to ask them to join the revolution. We're going to build a state where everyone can get a good education, etc etc.

    There are many rumours about (Gadaffi's) location. We're going to guarantee his safety and the safety of his family. We want to see him be tried in Libya and not in any other place in the world. We're establishing a state of law and we would like to see him in the court.


Asked about reports that looters are moving into the Rixos hotel in Tripoli, he says:

    It's very hard to control the people and this emotion but we're asking them... not to take revenge. We're doing every possible thing but after 42 years of dictatorship, people have the right to carry out their emotion. But we would like to tell them to control that emotion and don't be against law and order.

12.30am: Reports suggest the African Union may be offering Gaddafi exile in Angola or Zimbabwe, Al Jazeera says.

12.11am: The International Criminal Court prosecutor's spokeswoman says it has been confirmed that Gaddafi's son Saif al-Islam has been detained, Reuters reports.

12.09am: The Libyan rebels reach Green Square in the centre of Tripoli, Sky News reports.

12.01am: Tripoli resident Hakeem Guja has told the BBC: "We celebrate the victory. The people are very happy and want to thank the Nato forces for helping us."
 
Rebels celebrate in Tripoli's Green Square, heart of Gadhafi regime
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/world/africa-mideast/rebels-celebrate-in-tripolis-green-square-heart-of-gadhafi-regime/article2136488/

DARIO LOPEZ, KARIN LAUB and BEN HUBBARD
TRIPOLI— The Associated Press

Libyan rebels raced into Tripoli in a lighting advance Sunday that met little resistance as Moammar Gadhafi's defenders melted away and his 40-year rule appeared to rapidly crumble. The euphoric fighters celebrated with residents of the capital in the city's main square, the symbolic heart of the regime.

Opposition fighters captured Colonel Gadhafi's son and one-time heir apparent, Seif al-Islam. The prosecutor at the International Criminal Court in the Netherlands said he would contact the rebels to discuss his handover for trial on charges of crimes against humanity.

Associated Press reporters with the rebels said the fighters rebels easily advanced 30 kilometres on Sunday from the west, took town after town — welcomed by residents — overwhelmed a major military base, then swept into the capital in a stunning turning of the tide in the 6-month-old Libyan civil war. ............

But it appeared that key parts of Col. Gadhafi's military were peeling away.

The rebels' way into Tripoli was opened when the military unit in charge of protecting Col. Gadhafi and the capital surrendered, ordering his troops to drop their weapons, the rebel information minister Mahmoud Shammam said.

In a sign of the coordination among rebels, as the main force moved into the city from the west, a second force of 200 opposition fighters from the city of Misrata further east landed by boat in the capital, bringing weapons and ammunition for Tripoli residents who join the rebellion, said Munir Ramzi of the rebels' military council in Misrata.

The rebels' speedy leap forward over just a few dramatic hours was a stunning reversal for Col. Gadhafi, who earlier this month had seemed to have a firm grip on his stronghold in the western part of Libya, despite months of NATO airstrikes on his military. Rebels had been unable to make any advances for weeks, bogged down on the main fronts with regime troops in the east and center of the country.
 
http://www.canada.com/news/Harper+hopes+near+Gadhafi/5286387/story.html

Harper hopes ‘end is near’ for Gadhafi

OTTAWA — Prime Minister Stephen Harper hopes the end is near for Libyan strongman Moammar Gadhafi as rebels continue to tighten their noose around the capital Tripoli.

“Canada is hopeful that the end is near for the Gadhafi regime and that authority will soon transition to the National Transitional Council of Libya, the recognized governing body of Libya,” the Prime Minister’s Office said in a release Sunday night.

Harper has been receiving regular updates on the situation in Libya and continues to monitor the situation closely, the Prime Minister’s Office said.

Canada has been part of the NATO-led mission in Libya. In all, there are about 650 military personnel in the region, a Royal Canadian Navy frigate and seven Royal Canadian Air Force fighter jets.
 
It is interesting to watch this unfold.  Militarily, it is very similar to the ousting of the Taliban in Afghanistan, where a anti-government faction, backed by western fires, is able to throw out the ruling power.  Yes, there are differences, but the method of achieving overthrow is similar.

After "surges" in Iraq and Afghanistan have failed to deliver the hearts and minds promised by FM 3-24, I can see this model of intervention as the likely COA for Western nations when dealing with civil wars/uprisings/less then friendly regimes.

Implications for the military?  Fading of "policing" strategies that are landpower intensive and back to the "fires" arguments (hinged off things like theories of RMA) which sees fleets and aircraft favoured over land intervention?  A distaste for "nation-building" in military discourse?

Libya begs the question of Syria.  I don't think Syria can automatically be assumed to be next.  Libya, like Afghanistan 10 years ago, was an international pariah.  The vested interests of Iran in Syria will make it a little difficult to simply shift NATOs campaign to the Levant.  As well, knocking down the Taliban, Saddam and now Qaddaffi are the easy parts; its what follows the breaking of the dishes that has been a problem for all involved in the past.  Don't count some sort of deployment to Libya out yet....
 
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