Tory minority in jeopardy as opposition talks coalition. Will there be another election?

[The Bread Guy]

Has everyone so quickly forgotten the controversy generated over the GG's appointment?

I don't think we've forgotten about the husband's issues, but as others have suggested, the PM could have just as easily appointed a new G-G/Commander in Chief if he thought there was THAT much of an issue.

 

[john10]

Yes I do.  I did budget reports and the people I reported to were aware of where every penny went.  The amount of the budget doesn't matter - 1 billion or 160 billion if you are responsible then you should know where millions of dollars are going.

The Minister of Finance is not responsible for overseeing every contract taken out by the government. It was not up to Paul Martin to know that contract #3874293740 should have been worth $80,000 instead of $115,000. If there was mis-spending and fraud, there are oversight mechanisms in place staffed by experts to deal with it. Do you think he should have known what the ad companies did with the money once they were paid, too? Like giving money to party officials?

 

[john10]

The Governor General has made a decision that is, simultaneously:

• Good for the country, in the here and now; and

• Bad for the Constitution in the near, mid and long terms.

Prime Minister Stephen Harper, leader of the party of which I am a member and to which I am a substantial contributor, made a grossly stupid political miscalculation* that opened the way for a coalition of the separatists, the economically illiterate and the politically inept.

Constitutionally, Governor General Jean should have made him face the music: defeat and political disgrace. He richly deserves both for being a bloody idiot. She should then have invited M. Dion to gather his band of dimwits and misfits and form a government. Instead she has broken a Constitutional convention – something far more important than any law – and, by so doing, she has further weakened an already retarded democracy (unequal representation in the elected chamber and an appointed chamber are sad vestiges of a mid 19th century system that mistrusted mass democracy).

I think the most important constitutional convention is that the GG has to do basically what the PM asks her to, and that's what she did. Personally, I don't think it's up to her to say "I don't like you did, so you should face the music and face a confidence vote." That would have been a constitutional outrage in my opinion. Proroguing was right.

 

[Old Sweat]

In my opinion the coalition resembles the Norwegian Blue Parrot. The local news from Ottawa at 1500 local or less than three hours after the announcement reported calls from a Liberal MP to drop the idea and for Dion to speed up his resignation. Another Liberal suggested now is the time to cooperate in making parliament work.

 

[ettibebs]

Agree with john10. The GG has no place to say if she think the PM as done good or bad.  She is there only to sign wathever the PM bring to her.  I have seen many constitution expert at TV today saying just that.

 

[john10]

Jean Chretien as Prime Minister initiated the program(s) which collectively fell into the corruption pit known as ADSCAM, while Paul Martin Jr was not only the Minister of Finance, but also the Minister responsible for Quebec, and therefore the one minister most attuned to the day to day activities of the Liberal Party in that province.

Stephan Dion was also a Minister of the Crown in those days, but judging from his performance to date, it is pretty clear he would not have a  clue as to what was going on during the Sponsorship Scandal (AKA ADSCAM). Makes you wonder what sort of oversight the PMO or the government in general would be getting if he was to actually become Prime Minister.

Thucydides, there is no serious expectation that the minister of finance should be aware of whether every contract and dollar spent is done so correctly. There is no evidence that he knew about the mis-spending and fraud, and nobody seriously expects that he should have known.

Oversight is more a function of the mechanisms already in place (like the Auditor General) than of whichever party is in power.

 

[retiredgrunt45]

Some pretty harsh words from UK's The Economist, shared with the usual disclaimer....

At least someone from the outside view's this for what it is, a mess of grand proportion...

This has divided the country right down the middle, with west vs east and over the next six weeks, its going to get uglier and may even succeed in raising the ugly head of the separation question all over again, this time not only in Quebec but now also in Alberta.

The question we have to ask ourselves now is, do we go back to the poles and elect a government that will govern or do we continue down this path and allow these parties to play partisan politics. Whatever has to be done, must be done sooner than later because once the full force of this economic tsunami hits our shores, we need a government that will act quickly and not continue on playing Russian roulette with our countries future.

 

[Rifleman62]

DAP, you are correct of course re per capita. The point is the billions given to Quebec, plus billions in other government programs. People in Quebec must be indoctrinated to the what is put into the province by the federal government.  No wait, it does not matter what party is the federal government, Quebec gets it anyway.

 

[observor 69]

Dion is incompetent and would be unable to unite the coalition into an effective governing body.
The NDP is probably not economically smart enough to handle a national economy during these difficult times.
Hopefully the coalition will collapse so the Bloc won't get any of the gifts offered to get there support.
Harper is a bully and has proven his tin ear to the public, a liability to a political leader. But as an economist and our presently elected prime minister he is the best bet to lead the country on the short term.

Roll on the Liberal leadership convention.

 

[George Wallace]

As I drive by the Post Office and see all the workers on "Information Lines", and I listent to the radio announcing that the City bus drivers have voted to go on Strike, and the Public Civil Service Unions are talking about the "No Strike" clause enacted on them, and all the other Unions that plan to go on Strike during these "Economic Times", I wonder if we will have a country left to govern in a few weeks.  Who really cares about the Three Stooges, if there is nothing else working in the country?  Who dealt out all the "Stupid Pills" at Halloween?

 

[geo]

Baden Guy,
Officially, from what I have heard, the Bloc per se has been offered / has received no gifts.
There is no doubt that, once in the driver's seat, the coalition would always be is a position of being toppled by the bloc ... so the coalition would be at risk of toppling at any moment ...

HOWEVER, I don't see either Mr Dion or Layton ever conceeding anything to the Bloc that had anything to do with national unity

 

[Reccesoldier]

Politics of Procrastination?
I really wish PM Harper had asked the GG to call an election instead or suspending parliament.

He said the other three were trying to put one over on Canadians, he said Canadians didn't vote for the TIC's (Three Idiots Coalition) but then he pulls the one stunt in the parliamentary bag of tricks that gives the opposition ammunition for their "it's only about his job" propaganda.

Prime Minister Harper should (In my opinion) have asked the Governor General for an election to clear the air, scheduled for about the same time frame (26Jan) as that granted by the prorogation. Then he should have kicked the living crap out of the TIC's on the basis of their dirty tricks and forcing another election through backroom deals and collusion before the fiscal update was even issued.

From what I've been reading it's my guess that here are enough people on all sides of the political spectrum that are angry enough about this coalition to swallow a bit of partisanship and hand the Torries a small majority.

Combine those ones with the ones that are just sick and tired of minority gong shows, and are looking rationally for the party that has it together enough to offer to form a majority and end the misery and I think the Cons would have won a majority by the end of January and we as a nation could get to the business of really seeing the forest through the trees.

As it is I believe that the Conservatives have only postponed the inevitable.

Neither Layton or Duceppe sounded like they would even consider PM Steven Harper again, and Dion's weak insistence on "monumental change" which the opposition (all three of the heads of this incarnation of Cerberus) have previously shown means the unequivocal abandonment of conservative ideals and policy in favor of socialist and progressive ones.

Welcome to groundhog day. See you all right back where we started on January 26th.

(Cross posted at: http://uncommonsensecanada.blogspot.com/2008/12/politics-of-procrastination.html )

 

[geo]

Zip,
I believe, considering we've just come out of a federal election, I believe that, it if was at all possible, the GG would have been obliged to ask the coalition if they could......

 

[Reccesoldier]

Zip,
I believe, considering we've just come out of a federal election, I believe that, it if was at all possible, the GG would have been obliged to ask the coalition if they could......

Not if Harper had asked today, while he was still "legally" enjoying the support of parliament.  The same reason the GG's hands were tied to prorogue would have applied.

 

[Michael OLeary]

I really wish PM Harper had asked the GG to call an election instead or suspending parliament.

The three minority party leaders form a coalition and offer to form a government, within legal and acceptable parliamentary regulations, and people *****.

The Prime Minister asks for and receives permission to suspend Parliament, within legal and acceptable parliamentary regulations, and people *****.

Is there anything a Canadian politician can do that won't excite indignation in someone?  Indignation doesn't make their decisions wrong/"undemocratic"/illegal/etc., it only expresses the individual's dislike of the decision taken.

 

[Edward Campbell]

I think the most important constitutional convention is that the GG has to do basically what the PM asks her to, and that's what she did. Personally, I don't think it's up to her to say "I don't like you did, so you should face the music and face a confidence vote." That would have been a constitutional outrage in my opinion. Proroguing was right.

This is one of those infamous and sorely misunderstood reserve powers of the Crown that belong to the governor general.

She had two choices: follow the advice of her first minister; or do her first constitutional duty which is to ensure that there is, always, a prime minister who can offer her advice that will reflect the will of parliament. (See Constitutional Conventions, Geoffrey Marshall, p. 40. Referred to here.)

Now, Mme. Jean may be right in her election; perhaps it is time for our, essentially ceremonial, head of state to stop playing an active role in politics; but who then can check a prime minister bent on using and abusing the royal prerogatives to govern even when he has, quite clearly, lost the confidence of the House of Commons? If we are going to cede the royal prerogatives to the head of government then we need, quickly, to move to a new form of government – one with an elected head of state.

Mme. Jean may have painted herself into a corner – or Harper may have forced her into one. Most (nearly all) of the commentators I have read over the past few weeks, even months and years, have agreed that six months is about the minimum time that a minority government should endure before another general election can be called - that was the key to Lascalles' advice to King George VI cited above. Our last general election was held in mid Oct. Parliament was recalled in Nov and prorogued in early Dec. It will meet again in late Jan. If the government is to be defeated it will be in early to mid Feb – probably during either the throne speech or, more likely, a budget debate. That’s four months. Shorter than what most commentators consider necessary but, after a long, say 42 day, election campaign we would be at nearly 5½ months – maybe just enough to justify, in her mind, another general election which might promise a majority government. She may be guided by the thought that an election that would produce a majority would be worth it in these dangerous economic times.

 

[Rodahn]

He said the other three were trying to put one over on Canadians, he said Canadians didn't vote for the TIC's (Three Idiots Coalition)

How is it that you know what the PM discussed with the GG?

I agree that we probably will be no further ahead on the 26/27Th Jan than we are today. At least he has extended the olive branch to work with/discuss the countries needs rather than pursue partisan policies.

 

[GAP]

I gather the Quebec polls are changing slightly from Charest's 12 point lead in favor of the PQ....he still leads, but Harper's attack on the Bloc has helped the PQ...

I guess this is payback for what Charest did to him during the federal election.

 

[Retired AF Guy]

There is no evidence that he knew about the mis-spending and fraud, and nobody seriously expects that he should have known

Actually, that may not be true. I can remember back in the summer of '04 one the national newspapers (or it could have been the Kingston Whig) publishing a letter from a senior Liberal official, to Paul Martin expressing concern about reports of fiscal mismanagement going on in Quebec. Now whether Martin received it, or not is not known, but the letter does indicate that people in the Liberal party knew that something fishy was going on in Quebec.

 

[Brad Sallows]

The G-G's decision is simultaneously good for the country and no harm to the constitution, which no one asserts has been violated in any way.  Convention and customary practices originate and evolve.

Harper's provocative miscalculation appears, on the evidence, to be entirely orthogonal to this crisis - a convenient but coincidental smokescreen which the coalition and its supporters have attempted to sustain vigorously.  The coalition's chief spokespeople have, however, repeatedly claimed this primary excuse: that the government does not propose to spend enough (aka fiscal stimulus).  The implication: if Harper had merely proposed a budget with very modest spending increases, the coalition would have voted non-confidence.  It is illogical to blame Harper for opening the way to a coalition which was determined to proceed and had the votes to do so.

Separately, while the coalition claims it can command the confidence of the House and has so advised the G-G, the coalition has not shown that it is also ready to govern.  Even had Harper truly been blameworthy and deserving of the music, the G-G would still have to consider whether the coalition is ready.  While an accord has been signed and a shortlist of aim and supporting objectives published, much of the rest of the drama militates against the likelihood the coalition is not floundering like Keystone Kops.  The various proposals floated and withdrawn and the ridiculous comic opera of the council of economic advisors illustrate so.

It matters not whether Harper had the wisdom to request prorogation to give emotions time to subside, or merely requested it out of self-preservation and the G-G considered a time-out to be a good idea.  The G-G exercises the power to summon Parliament; I do not fear we are in any danger of frequent and frivolous requests to prorogue that can not be terminated when they become unreasonably long, unless the G-G's summoning power is truly ceremony with no substance in law or custom.

Harper's provocation has had this effect: it may have goaded the opposition to act prematurely.  I would be pleased to believe Harper divined the machinations - there were prior open musings, albeit none received much media attention - but on balance (until proven otherwise) one should still conclude he acted irrationally.