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Tory minority in jeopardy as opposition talks coalition. Will there be another election?

ummm..... soo - the Conservatives suddenly become sore losers because they tried to play hardball politics - without the majority to jam it down everyone's throats with.

If we do not agree with what our elected officials have done, we'll have our chance at the voting urns soon enough.
 
Costa Rica is sounding better by the day.
 
recceguy said:
........and you seriously think that they'll govern, for the next four years, like a majority government? :rofl:  With  :king:'s Dion or Layton?

Sorry. I shouldn't be here anyway. I just can't seem to take what is being proposed, with all the doomsday scenarios, serious enough. Knowing Canadian politics, it doesn't matter the outcome, cause whoever ends up on top, they'll frig it up anyway.

I didn't state anything about them governing for any length of time, I was merely questioning the validity of your statement regarding the first piece of legislation. Nothing more, nothing less.

As for the coalition frigging it up, I would agree, as I cannot see them agreeing on a course of action for more than a year, if that.
 
Michael O`Leary said:
So, they should have won a non-confidence vote, and then started negotiations to see if they could form a government?

Doom on them for planning and preparation.   

No they should have at least put on the pretense of trying to work together.  Instead the NDP/Bloc have been cooking this little scheme up the moment they lost.  THAT is undemocratic.  I know your trying to play devils advocate, and encourage debate, but you have to admit that even those these shenanigans while "permitted" in our system, that does not make them less repugnant. I stand by my opinion, planning to topple the government, and set your self up in the seat of power the moment you lose a free, election is UNDEMOCRATIC.
 
Hatchet Man said:
Instead the NDP/Bloc have been cooking this little scheme up the moment they lost.  

You have irrefutable proof of this?
 
Hatchet Man said:
No they should have at least put on the pretense of trying to work together.  Instead the NDP/Bloc have been cooking this little scheme up the moment they lost.  THAT is undemocratic.  I know your trying to play devils advocate, and encourage debate, but you have to admit that even those these shenanigans while "permitted" in our system, that does not make them less repugnant. I stand by my opinion, planning to topple the government, and set your self up in the seat of power the moment you lose a free, election is UNDEMOCRATIC.

Ok, so legally elected representatives in the Canadian Parliament are using the existing system of governance to challenge a minority government - and this this suddenly "undemocratic"?

dem⋅o⋅crat⋅ic

1. pertaining to or of the nature of democracy or a democracy.
2. pertaining to or characterized by the principle of political or social equality for all: democratic treatment.
3. advocating or upholding democracy.

If it's not democratic, then what is is?


We're not exactly talking about a "bloody coup" here.

 
Rodahn said:
You have irrefutable proof of this?

Listen to the tape... NDP planned this way before last thursday and we just waiting to something to push the Liberals over the edge.  And Harper did that on Thursday. 
 
There's nothing wrong with the mechanics of forming a coalition, and the opposition powers have been able to do this since the 2006 election.  If they can agree to spend enough money on each other's pet projects, there's no reason they can't govern indefinitely unless their base fraction of voters tires of receiving the benefits of those projects.

But:

1) Dion did, during the election, speak against forming a coalition with the NDP.
2) Whatever the "voters of Canada" said, they did not affirm the leadership of Dion.  They did return a House structured much like the previous one.
3) Dion has already been scheduled for departure.
4) Nevertheless, Dion is to be installed as PM.
5) His replacement will not have to face an election.  It has already been stated that the coalition intends to govern for at least 30 months if it can, and has also already been stated that the Liberals expect to select a new leader in 6 months or so.  Even Chretien had the decency to wrongfoot the opposition by calling a premature election after they selected a new leader.
6) Despite calls from all quarters of their supporters and among themselves for a fiscal stimulus, none have even attempted to show why it is necessary.  I am unaware of even one half-serious attempt to demonstrate why sudden and massive intervention is necessary. It continues to be an assertion.  With a complete absence of proof and despite all economic indicators to the contrary, we are to believe disaster must be around the corner and react accordingly.
7) In addition to the case for sudden economic intervention not being demonstrated, I am unaware of a single instance of a plan.  I don't mean a list of objectives supporting a statement of aim (X for manufacturing in general, Y for automakers specifically, Z for forestry); I mean a plan.  What specific amounts are to be expended, and where?  How is $30B to be divided; who will receive it?
8) Corporations and markets will react to signals.  Right now the signal is that $30B is up for grabs.  Experience shows that those who devote the most energy to lobbying tend to receive the most rewards.  Time and effort devoted to lobbying is time and effort not devoted to the business at hand.
9) If the market for low-yield government bonds turns out to be rather dry, will they print what they need (deflating, of course, the value of savings and fixed incomes).
10) Does the pension protection they have talked about include my private one, or is it just for public sector and large corporation defined benefit funds?
11) After years of accusing the Conservatives of having a weak bench and no serious heavyweight policy minds, and thus being unfit to govern even during economically stable times, the opposition parties:
a) Turn to their parents to arrange the marriage.
b) Ask their uncles to hold their hands, fiscally.
Obviously the NDP lack experience in federal government.  Is this an admission by the Liberals that they, too, are weak?  Am I alone in thinking this is not the best time to be putting training wheels on the economy so the NDP can get a little cabinet OJT?  They accuse the Conservatives of incompetence and demonstrate self-doubt of their own competence to the degree that the elected politicians are not leading or manifestly seen to firmly lead.  No amount of Jack Layton's self-congratulatory lists of positive-sounding adjectives can paper that glaring hole over.

$300M, the supposed cost of an election, is 1/100th of $30B.  It is reasonable to invest 1% of the proposal to ask what, in the face of all this new information, the voters wish to affirm.  And during the campaign, the prospective coalition members can take the time to explain how they intend to divvy up $30B worth of largesse, what amount will be added to the federal debt, what amount will be raised from new revenues, and how those revenues - in light of expectations of falling take from various taxes - are to be obtained.  Then the chosen winners can await the election outcome, and those not selected can get on with working through the credit crunch.  At least there will be an answer to a large, unanswered question.

>An economic stimulus package will be the new government's top priority, while other policies include a commitment to improve child benefits and childcare "as finances permit."

Priceless.  That was first on my list of "things they really want to do if the fiscal stimulus is a smokescreen".  Look forward to more spending programs on which the Bloc, NDP, and Liberals can agree.
 
radiohead said:
Listen to the tape... NDP planned this way before last thursday and we just waiting to something to push the Liberals over the edge.  And Harper did that on Thursday. 

Damn them for having a strategy.  What's wrong with simple old knee-jerk politickin'?
 
Michael O`Leary said:
Ok, so legally elected representatives in the Canadian Parliament are using the existing system of governance to challenge a minority government - and this this suddenly "undemocratic"?

If it's not democratic, then what is is?


We're not exactly talking about a "bloody coup" here.

Something can be perfectly legal and undemocratic, hell there is 27 page thread about the "legal" actions of the CHRC, and the general sentiment and statements of this board, has been their actions are wholly undemocratic.
 
Hatchet Man said:
Something can be perfectly legal and undemocratic, hell there is 27 page thread about the "legal" actions of the CHRC, and the general sentiment and statements of this board, has been their actions are wholly undemocratic.

But of course: "of this board."  Because we all know how graciously the Liberals were handled "on this board" in the interests of open democratic discussion.  I suppose as long as you keep your arcs narrow, you can focus on any definition you prefer.

 
>Instead the NDP/Bloc have been cooking this little scheme up the moment they lost.  THAT is undemocratic.

The scheme is not undemocratic.  What can be argued to be "undemocratic" is that they may have withheld an extremely significant piece of information from voters.  The Liberals and NDP have, after all, been baying for days about how wrong it was of the Conservatives to cut public campaign funding without mentioning it during the campaign.

When the conference call brouhaha broke, I came to three conclusions:
1) It sounds illegal.
2) It's definitely unethical.
3) Canadians have a right to know those intentions, and had a right to know during the election campaign if those intentions existed then.

If you disagree with (3), I point out that the whole principle of whistleblowing is that it reveals privileged/confidential information which is in the public interest.  And that, very few in the "progressive" camps have ever disputed; indeed, they look to that principle to help keep the scary Conservatives with the hidden agenda in check.

The reason I assert voters have a right to know is that it is a significant shift in electoral custom if the opposition can set out with no good faith whatsoever to allow a minority to govern, seeking only to overturn it at the first available confidence opportunity.
 
Michael O`Leary said:
I wonder what the tone of this thread would be like if the Liberals had won a minority and the Conservatives were now planning a coalition with the NDP and working on a non-confidence vote.

+1

Nobody here should be right ticked - any belief that they voted for a specific party or leader is a misunderstanding of how the dynamics of our system work.  Yes, I voted in support of Stephen Harper and the Conservative Party this time (although in reality I actually voted for neither) but they didn't get a majority so I guess my vote didn't go to a "winner".

It's funny how people lose so much faith in democracy when their team loses - I saw this on forums with a heavy American membership during their Presidential race.  If we recognize the legitimacy of a system that will put our team to power, then in order to stay consistent we must recognize the legitimacy of the other team should they win through the same system.  Anything less is hypocrisy.

Alas, I digress - in the end, I think Recceguy has the right of it.  This isn't anything to lose sleep over as it is beyond our control (we've voted).

My final observations before signing off for the night:

1)  Methinks Stephen Harper blundered and may pay for this.  He's pretty much been able to push the opposition parties around for years resulting in one of our most successful minority governments.  I suspect that the other parties would only take the "schoolyard bully" tactics for so long.  Apparently, they knew this was coming, set this up and -WAMMO-, the Conservatives walked into this.  Watching them try to avoid it is like someone squirming in the killzone of an ambush....

2) I wonder if Stephane Dion has done more long-term damage to the Liberal Party?  Jeffrey Simpson made a comment about this in today's G&M.  Many have long supported the Liberal Party as a reasonable centrist option to governance.  Many Canadians stuck with the idea of a "Centrist Liberal" party as a way of voting against what they perceived was a bit of conservative excess in the CPC.  Boy - I bet you these types are surprised to wake up and find that their vote has now put the Unionist/Socialists and the Socialist/Seperatists at the helm!  "Hey, I didn't vote for those guys!!!" - did Dion push the Liberal Party irrevocably to the left with his deal with the devil(s) and drive a core either to the Conservatives or away from politics all together?

I await the commentary of the more in-tune around these parts (ER Campbell, where are you?)  :)
 
I think this has little to do with legality or ethics, and certainly nothing to do with national stewardship.  

It is merely a greater example of what politics have devolved into - taking any opportunity to acquire power and dropkick the opposition in the vulnerable area at any cost, without regard for what is best for the people, the country, or the economy.

At a time like this, we should be seeing a dropping of stances as all parties pull together in order to enhance national economic stability and recovery.  Instead we see a split government, and an unknown power structure coming forth, which will not neccesarily be a good thing when seen from the international investment point of view.    

The only two positive things to come out of this are:
1) The former losing (but now winning) parties actually kept a campaign promise - preventing the conservatives from staying in power (not that I agree with it, but it is certainly a landmark).
2) The new coalition likely has a better chance of cozying up to and having good relations with Obama, who has similiar concepts and objectives.  Benevolent US Presidents are always better for negotiating cross-border issues.  


 
Brad Sallows said:
...if the opposition can set out with no good faith whatsoever to allow a minority to govern, seeking only to overturn it at the first available confidence opportunity.

Therein, I think, lies the root of many people's anger. There is a justifiable expectation by the electorate, that a minority government will actually get the chance to govern. With the NDP and Bloc colluding immediately after their loss at the polls, that expectation has been annulled.
 
Ugg...I said I was signing off but I'm a political junkie....

Brad, your last few posts are pretty poignant.

Brad Sallows said:
2) Whatever the "voters of Canada" said, they did not affirm the leadership of Dion.  They did return a House structured much like the previous one.
3) Dion has already been scheduled for departure
4) Nevertheless, Dion is to be installed as PM.
5) His replacement will not have to face an election.  It has already been stated that the coalition intends to govern for at least 30 months if it can, and has also already been stated that the Liberals expect to select a new leader in 6 months or so.  Even Chretien had the decency to wrongfoot the opposition by calling a premature election after they selected a new leader.

This goes to my point above about long-term damage to the Liberal Party.  I may be wrong, but I suspect many people who voted Liberal are not happy with what is transpiring.

6) Despite calls from all quarters of their supporters and among themselves for a fiscal stimulus, none have even attempted to show why it is necessary.  I am unaware of even one half-serious attempt to demonstrate why sudden and massive intervention is necessary. It continues to be an assertion.  With a complete absence of proof and despite all economic indicators to the contrary, we are to believe disaster must be around the corner and react accordingly.
7) In addition to the case for sudden economic intervention not being demonstrated, I am unaware of a single instance of a plan.  I don't mean a list of objectives supporting a statement of aim (X for manufacturing in general, Y for automakers specifically, Z for forestry); I mean a plan.  What specific amounts are to be expended, and where?  How is $30B to be divided; who will receive it?
...
Obviously the NDP lack experience in federal government.  Is this an admission by the Liberals that they, too, are weak?  Am I alone in thinking this is not the best time to be putting training wheels on the economy so the NDP can get a little cabinet OJT?  They accuse the Conservatives of incompetence and demonstrate self-doubt of their own competence to the degree that the elected politicians are not leading or manifestly seen to firmly lead.  No amount of Jack Layton's self-congratulatory lists of positive-sounding adjectives can paper that glaring hole over.

Ahh - the details - details I bet the Opposition (Government-in-Waiting) is uncomfortable with at the moment.  I suspect that they are so gleeful for winning a game of chicken with Harper that they've forgotten what they're actually stepping up to the plate to do.  An OC of mine once said that a Platoon Commander gets real good when he starts thinking about the Company (and, up to OCs and the Battalion, etc, etc).  Clearly, these politicians - backtracking on past statements - aren't adhering to this ideal.  There probably is no real plan to pull Canada out of the turd-spiral; rather the economic plan for them is "Get Harper!!!"....

Brad Sallows said:
3) Canadians have a right to know those intentions, and had a right to know during the election campaign if those intentions existed then.

If you disagree with (3), I point out that the whole principle of whistleblowing is that it reveals privileged/confidential information which is in the public interest.  And that, very few in the "progressive" camps have ever disputed; indeed, they look to that principle to help keep the scary Conservatives with the hidden agenda in check.

The reason I assert voters have a right to know is that it is a significant shift in electoral custom if the opposition can set out with no good faith whatsoever to allow a minority to govern, seeking only to overturn it at the first available confidence opportunity.

I guess this goes to the whole principle of what a Representative truly is?  Does he act as a representative for his riding, applying his opinions and expertise for the good of the whole - or does he represent the wishes of his constituents, meaning he has an obligation to bring his platform into line with his electors?  I would think a view to the former would give the politician a little more latitude in his policies (crossing the floor, voting against the party line, etc, etc).  The latter would demand more of a prescription before an election and some adherence to it.

I'm more prone to the former view.  I'm inclined to accept political deviation or "maverick" plays if my representative presents sound logic for the good of the whole in making his decision (another reason I despise Party Discipline).  I don't take election promises seriously as they are essentially a grand display of posturing and arm-chair quarterbacking....
 
Greymatters said:
I think this has little to do with legality or ethics, and certainly nothing to do with national stewardship.  

It is merely a greater example of what politics have devolved into - taking any opportunity to acquire power and dropkick the opposition in the vulnerable area at any cost, without regard for what is best for the people, the country, or the economy.

As my post above states, I'm right with you on this one Greymatters.  I think we can all admit that the CPC is also guilty of this....
 
Yes, Where is Mr Campbell?  His commentary on these events would be most illuminating.

My thoughts- Mr Harper is a political dead man.  The best thing that he can do, now that he has so graciously "united the Left" in Canada, is very quickly resign, accepting all responsibility for this mess.  It quickly clears the deck for a leadership convention that can be done even before the Liberals get their convention done.

If anyone thinks that the....what the hell are we going to call this thing?  The NewLibloc?  Anyway, if anyone thinks they are going to get a free ride over the next 6 months- think again.  The Conservatives have over 140 highly disciplined MPs- many sitting on Committees.  Many have been cabinet ministers for two years and know where all the bodies are buried- Question Period will be a real hoot as rookie Cabinet Ministers get grilled, regularily.

I, too, think that the Liberals may have scored an important and sizeable tactical victory that may yet turn into a strategic defeat for them.  They still have money problems; they still have Mr Dion (which cannot please either Rae or Iggy- public protestations to the contrary)- they may be in danger of disappearing into the NDP- which will not please a bunch of core Liberals.  Oh yeah- and the NDP, Liberals and Bloc have to agree on everything.  Think about that for a second.  How is Afghanistan going to get handled around the Cabinet table?  Or Green Shift?  Or Corporate taxes?

On a final note- everything that has (apparently) been done so far is within the rules.  Harper got out played.  He should man up.  And...this is worth saying...even if you do not agree with NDP or Liberal or Bloc policys, they were duly elected by their own constitutents.  You don't like what they do...vote against them next election.  And an election will come.  It always does.
 
Good post SKT.

SeaKingTacco said:
My thoughts- Mr Harper is a political dead man.  The best thing that he can do, now that he has so graciously "united the Left" in Canada, is very quickly resign, accepting all responsibility for this mess.  It quickly clears the deck for a leadership convention that can be done even before the Liberals get their convention done.

For some reason, my spidey-sense smells this as well....

If anyone thinks that the....what the hell are we going to call this thing?  The NewLibloc?  Anyway, if anyone thinks they are going to get a free ride over the next 6 months- think again.  The Conservatives have over 140 highly disciplined MPs- many sitting on Committees.  Many have been cabinet ministers for two years and know where all the bodies are buried- Question Period will be a real hoot as rookie Cabinet Ministers get grilled, regularily.

I, too, think that the Liberals may have scored an important and sizeable tactical victory that may yet turn into a strategic defeat for them.  They still have money problems; they still have Mr Dion (which cannot please either Rae or Iggy- public protestations to the contrary)- they may be in danger of disappearing into the NDP- which will not please a bunch of core Liberals.  Oh yeah- and the NDP, Liberals and Bloc have to agree on everything.  Think about that for a second.  How is Afghanistan going to get handled around the Cabinet table?  Or Green Shift?  Or Corporate taxes?

Very good points.  It should be interesting watching Frankenstein's Monster thrash about the Lower House.  Too bad the stakes are pretty high right now....

And an election will come.  It always does.

Amen.

Well, now I'm really signing off as 9erDomestic is forming a coalition against me.  Out.
 
Infanteer said:
For some reason, my spidey-sense smells this as well....

Although I would prefer not to, I would agree with this as well.  The 'New Kids and the Bloc' whipped their parties into a frenzy with their slogan of 'anyone but Harper', and leaving Harper as the leader allows them to trot out the same prize pig (this time wearing a tight red miniskirt instead of a gingham dress).  Taking away the point that united them would be a major blow to any campaign strategy...   
 
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