The Times: The winter war - Nato must press home its advantage in Afghanistan

[Teddy Ruxpin]

An excellent lead editorial in the (London) Times today:

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,542-2391214,00.html

The winter war - Nato must press home its advantage in Afghanistan
 
The transfer yesterday of American troops in eastern Afghanistan to Nato’s International Security Assistance Force (Isaf) brings under British command the alliance’s biggest ground operation in its history. It also marks the biggest deployment of US forces under foreign command since the Second World War. Some 12,000 US troops were placed at the disposal of General David Richards, joining the British, Dutch and Canadian forces fighting the resurgent Taleban in the south.
And at the formal transfer ceremony General Richards underlined the Nato resolve to use the new streamlined command to enhance the effectiveness of all the foreign forces in Afghanistan, now numbering 31,000 troops.

It is five years, almost to the day, since the US-led coalition launched its attack on Afghanistan, then under the repressive rule of the Taleban and a training ground and haven for al-Qaeda. Since then, the military, political and economic convulsions have transformed the country, bringing an elected government to Kabul, liberating Afghanistan’s women from the serfdom to which the obscurantist regime had condemned them and offering the country a chance to rebuild and reawaken.

Nevertheless, the Taleban are still far from defeated. They now pose the greatest threat to the country since they were ousted from power. Attacks on schools and government installations have grown, suicide bombers have hit allied convoys and more than 140 foreign troops have been killed since January.

It is clearly time for a strategic re- assessment. The Taleban offensive has begun to take a political toll. Public opinion in much of Europe, already alienated by the enduring strife in Iraq, is wavering. Several governments have refused Nato’s urgent calls for more troops to reinforce the overstretched forces in the south. There is needless talk of an unwinnable war and the lessons of history.

Such talk is irresponsible and self- defeating. There is no inevitability of a coalition defeat; indeed, General Richards pointed to the substantial damage done to Taleban forces by Nato’s two-week offensive last month, when around 1,000 insurgents were killed. The Afghan National Army is proving increasingly adept and effective. Some 37 nations have sent troops to Afghanistan to bolster the Karzai Government, and Nato’s determination to take military operations deep into the areas dominated by the disaffected Pashtun and Taleban warlords is an effective response to his pleadings for more allied help beyond Kabul.

Winter is coming on. By the end of this month, snow will have covered most of the peaks in the mountainous east — though not in the warmer Helmand Valley. Passes will be blocked and the Taleban will find it harder to mount attacks. Nato should make the most of this opportunity. The Taleban will regroup and attempt to re-equip with arms smuggled in from Pakistan. Nato, better equipped, must allow no let-up, must interdict the supply routes and prepare the offensives to be launched while the Taleban are weak.

Coalition forces, meanwhile, should show a more visible presence in the villages, where they can give backing to reconstruction and bolster support for the Karzai Government. Doom-mongering is misplaced. More British help for injured soldiers will bolster public support here. But all should understand that saving Afghanistan is a moral and military imperative.
 

 

[Bigmac]

    The article is absolutely on the money. NATO countries better step up and send more troops when and where needed. If you are a member of NATO honor your obligations or get lost. Also I would like to add that there are German troops in the north but because of their ROE they cannot be involved in active battle so cannot transfer some of the troops to the south where they are needed. What a crock! Now that all troops fall under NATO command get their butts south.

 

[Brad Sallows]

Noooooo! Has he forgotten the Brutal Afghanistan Winter ((c) Panicked Asshats Everywhere 2001)?

 

[3rd Horseman]

Great article.

  One issue eludes me, why it has not been corrected I don't know, any comments?
Here it is -  The rotos we conduct are done in mid summer and mid winter. This confounds me as the enemy ramps up in May and are at their peak mid summer, just when we send in green troops. At the end of the summer the EN is conducting many attacks to consolidate ground or jocky for the next years battles before they slip away to survive the winter, our guys are just getting going when they melt away. We should be changing are rotos to match the EN. Arrive in spring just as they ramp up and have our troops well seasoned by the time the EN is  at their peak. Rotate out as the battles slow and change to winter phase. Spring/Summer troops should be heavy and in for the close with and destroy at Bn level while winter troops should be light and mountain fighters to interdict and disrupt the resting EN. I don't know what do you all think. It would match the basics of the article and that is what we did in the past.

 

[54/102 CEF]

When the fools come back in the spring - they should see an abundance of billboards all along the routes - this way to the POW Cage.

If we look back to the Malayan Insurgency - it will take time - winter seems our time as the Pakistan based idiots can`t get across. When they get back their contacts and support networks should all be rolled up. Watch this video on anti insurgency - must get very close and stay close to the locals http://www.jhuapl.edu/POW/rethinking/video.cfm#nagl

Also - the entire in country elements have to be derailed. Here`s a paper that cover that idea http://www.mountainrunner.us/files/Sowing_Dissension.pdf

Get the locals going, and going after the sympathisers http://www.usma.edu/dmi/IWmsgs/10-06-ReadingTeaLeaves.pdf - one point hey make is that BODY COUNTS are idiotic. So lets pass the word that we`re not interested in body counts.

I am a just rear echelon rum runner who has not been over there but with almost no information other than newsclips and tough talk I suspect we are punching into a vacuum. All I am saying in a nutshell is by turning the local populace to guaranteed benefits of refusing the Taliban we`ll increase the hassle for the Taliban such that over the next 7 years when the recruits riot in Pakistan or just don't come back on leave - the Hellfires can hurry the rest to the promised land.

 

[3rd Horseman]

When the fools come back in the spring - they should see an abundance of billboards all along the routes - this way to the POW Cage.

:rofl:

 

[Blackadder1916]

NATO Chief Warns Of Afghan Tipping Point
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20061008/ap_on_re_as/afghanistan_3;_ylt=AuewikTlZMpKttRAJJhdeTb9xg8F;_ylu=X3oDMTA2ZGZwam4yBHNlYwNmYw--
By FISNIK ABRASHI, Associated Press Writers Sun Oct 8, 11:38 AM ET

NATO's top commander in Afghanistan said Sunday the country was at a tipping point and warned Afghans would likely switch their allegiance to resurgent Taliban militants if there are no visible improvements in people's lives in the next six months.

Gen. David Richards, a British officer who commands NATO's 32,000 troops here, warned in an interview with The Associated Press that if life doesn't get better over the winter, most Afghans could switch sides.

"They will say, 'We do not want the Taliban but then we would rather have that austere and unpleasant life that that might involve than another five years of fighting,'" Richards said.

Afghanistan is going through its worst bout of violence since the U.S.-led invasion removed the former Taliban regime from power five years ago. The Taliban has made a comeback in the south and east of the country and is seriously threatening Western attempts to stabilize the country after almost three decades of war.

"If we collectively ... do not exploit this winter to start achieving concrete and visible improvement," then some 70 percent of Afghans could switch sides, Richards told The Associated Press.

Richards will command NATO's troops in Afghanistan, including 12,000 U.S. forces, until February, when U.S. Gen. Dan K. McNeil will take command.

The British general said he'd like to have about 2,500 additional troops to form a reserve battalion to help speed up reconstruction and development efforts.

The south of the country, where NATO troops have fought their most intense battles this year, has been "broadly stabilized," Richards said.

"We have created an opportunity," following the intense fighting that left over 500 militants dead in the southern provinces of Kandahar and Helmand, he said. "If we do not take advantage of this, then you can pour an additional 10,000 troops next year and we would not succeed because we would have lost by then the consent of the people."

An agressive winter campaign will be important, but not just in terms of direct military action.  The locals have to believe that their lives are getting substantially better.