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Run Up to Election 2019

TimneyTime

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Jarnhamar said:
Scheer isn't pro firearms, he's pro firearm-owner votes. Big difference.
He's a lame duck that says enough to keep him out of hot water with conservative voters but nothing more.

I disagree with that, he himself is a firearms owner.  And all politicians are pro votes.  That's all they do, is get votes.

I also agree with the basic ideologies of the Conservative party, so whether he's a lame duck or not, he's the leader of the party which I align with.

I think he'll do the right thing by being tough on crime, and getting rid of the carbon tax.

I really was hoping that he'd totally scrap bill C-71, and that is a big issue for me, because it's just a Liberal attempt to get votes.

Also, Conservatives are heavily pro military.

Further, Andrew Scheer is not a lame duck, he's a serious threat to Trudeau and the Liberals.

Recent poll results reflect this, as an amalgamation of polls done by a variety of sources across Canada:

https://www.calculatedpolitics.com/project/2019-canada-election/
 

mariomike

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ballz said:
... the whole point of having a vote is that no one else gets to decide what issues you *should* care about, and just *how much* you should care about them.

Until I retired on my 55th birthday, the issues I cared about ( most ) were fair compensation, benefits, pension, staffing and equipment, decent working conditions etc.

That was mostly at the municipal level. But, to a lesser degree, also at the provincial and federal levels.

Our union had a simple, non-partisan philosophy when endorsing candidates – We supported politicians who supported us. Regardless of party affiliation or one’s political leanings.

At the same time, the union respected the right of every member to vote for the candidate(s) of their choice. No one, including the union, had the right to tell you how to vote.





 

Jarnhamar

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[quote author=TimneyTime]  he himself is a firearms owner.[/QUOTE]
I own 30 round magazines pinned to 5 rounds. That doesn't mean I support magazine caps, just comes with the territory of legally shooting ar15s.

Scheer doesn't have to own firearms to be a conservative but it sure makes connecting with conservative voters easier. See below.

And all politicians are pro votes.
:nod:


I really was hoping that he'd totally scrap bill C-71, and that is a big issue for me, because it's just a Liberal attempt to get votes.
I'd have to dig up the speeches but I remember feeling less than impressed with his response to C-71.

Also, Conservatives are heavily pro military

Until the war is over and public support starts to wander. Look at the Conservatives attitude towards CAF members post Afghanistan.

Recent poll results reflect this, as an amalgamation of polls done by a variety of sources across Canada:

https://www.calculatedpolitics.com/project/2019-canada-election/

Not a big fan of polls. Clinton had a 99.9% chance to win according to polls.

Polls I heard about a week ago suggested Trudeau's popularity was down but Scheer’s didn't move up.  I think that's more to do with the Liberals overt scandals and corruption.
Conservatives should parachute in a replacement.
 

brihard

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Jarnhamar said:
I own 30 round magazines pinned to 5 rounds. That doesn't mean I support magazine caps, just comes with the territory of legally shooting ar15s.

Scheer doesn't have to own firearms to be a conservative but it sure makes connecting with conservative voters easier. See below.

:nod:


I'd have to dig up the speeches but I remember feeling less than impressed with his response to C-71.


Until the war is over and public support starts to wander. Look at the Conservatives attitude towards CAF members post Afghanistan.

Not a big fan of polls. Clinton had a 99.9% chance to win according to polls.

Polls I heard about a week ago suggested Trudeau's popularity was down but Scheer’s didn't move up.  I think that's more to do with the Liberals overt scandals and corruption.
Conservatives should parachute in a replacement.

338canada seems to have inherited the role of collecting Canadian polling data since Eric Grenier got hired by CBC and stopped running his website. Both in popular vote and seat projections the liberals have suffered considerably in recent weeks and the Conservatives and NDP have both gained. Even the Greens have picked up modestly.

http://338canada.com/polls.htm
 

mariomike

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Jarnhamar said:
Not a big fan of polls.

They say, "Don't worry about polls, but if you do, don't admit it."  :)
 

Remius

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TimneyTime said:
I disagree with that, he himself is a firearms owner.  And all politicians are pro votes.  That's all they do, is get votes.

I also agree with the basic ideologies of the Conservative party, so whether he's a lame duck or not, he's the leader of the party which I align with.

I think he'll do the right thing by being tough on crime, and getting rid of the carbon tax.

I really was hoping that he'd totally scrap bill C-71, and that is a big issue for me, because it's just a Liberal attempt to get votes.

Also, Conservatives are heavily pro military.

Further, Andrew Scheer is not a lame duck, he's a serious threat to Trudeau and the Liberals.

Recent poll results reflect this, as an amalgamation of polls done by a variety of sources across Canada:

https://www.calculatedpolitics.com/project/2019-canada-election/

Jarnhammer hit the nail on the head with his response.

Until Trudeau imploded with this scandal Scheer was and still is a lame duck.  The only real threat to Trudeau and the Liberals is Trudeau and the Liberals.
 

Strike

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Here's an opinion posted on FB by a friend of mine who has worked on various campaigns across the country for each of the 3 main parties.  He tends to post a lot of poll numbers that I will share later as they come up, but I found this interesting, especially as I've always thought the two men were opposite sides of the same coin.

Again, not my words, but the words of someone I would consider a SME on the subject given that this is how he makes a living.

Donald Trump is more likely to be re-elected President than Justin Trudeau is to be re-elected Prime Minister.

And Trump needs 48% or more of all votes cast, while Trudeau needs only 35% of all cast.

It's not that Trudeau lied, because Trump lies all the time.

It's not that Trudeau is a shallow man, and a fake, because Trump is a shallow man who has faked his way through a lot.

It's not that Trudeau is a bully, because Trump is the biggest bully.

Nope.

I think there are 3 things that are different between Trump/USA and Trudeau/Canada:

1. Economic conditions in America and especially for minorities are much more favourable and stronger than the economy is for Canadians

2. Canadians' expectations of Trudeau were much higher than Americans' expectations of Trump.

3. High profile women that have gone after Trump are perceived as tainted by the public as Trump is, regardless whether they are women in politics and/or media.

But in Trudeau's case, 2 powerful men have had to resign without an honest explanation because 2 high profile women who are competent, honest and hardworking have resigned on principle.
 

TimneyTime

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Remius said:
Jarnhammer hit the nail on the head with his response.

Until Trudeau imploded with this scandal Scheer was and still is a lame duck.  The only real threat to Trudeau and the Liberals is Trudeau and the Liberals.

Andrew Scheer has been neither unsuccessful, nor has he been in office after the election of a successor.  Therefore, he is not a lame duck.
 

brihard

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TimneyTime said:
Andrew Scheer has been neither unsuccessful, nor has he been in office after the election of a successor.  Therefore, he is not a lame duck.

No, but he's been singularly unimpresive and uninspiring.

At present the best that can be said is that he has so far managed to avoid stepping particularly hard on his own dick. Entering into this election, it appears that may be enough to carry the day.

As a self-declared centrist and a swing voter, my vote tends to vary between CPC and LPC, usually whenever I get sick of one or the other. Scheer is not someone who has inspired my vote... I will likely be voting CPC despite him, not because of him. I do still believe he is a less bad option. I'm disappointed the CPC didn't do better in their leadership race.

The LPC will be trying to stick as much to Scheer as they can in the next while. He now faces the unenviable task of seven months' worth of keeping a firm grip on his party so that nobody says or does anything too politically stupid. I wish him luck.
 

Fishbone Jones

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TimneyTime said:
Andrew Scheer has been neither unsuccessful, nor has he been in office after the election of a successor.  Therefore, he is not a lame duck.

Let's not forget, ALL parties picked him to be Speaker of the House. He was 32 years old. Younger than our current PM. They ALL had confidence in his ability. That position requires a great understanding of politics. He proved to be an impartial arbiter of the rules and did the job well. As opposed to our current government.

I have full confidence he can do a better job, sleepwalking, than the current government at full speed. I also see an honesty there that is lacking in most politicians.
 

Loachman

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Thank you for your donation | Watch Justin Trudeau's arrogance | Michelle Rempel
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b73TMZ9zVfE
 

Loachman

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And that certainly won't help him with this:

https://globalnews.ca/news/5103763/trudeau-approval-rating-snc-lavalin-budget/

March 28, 2019 5:00 am

Updated: March 28, 2019 9:26 am

Trudeau now has a lower approval rating than Trump, with Tories way ahead: Ipsos poll

By Rahul Kalvapalle

<snip>

That’s according to a new Ipsos poll, conducted exclusively for Global News, which found that Trudeau’s approval rating (40 per cent) has now slipped below Trump’s (43 per cent), even as the Conservative Party established a double-digit lead over the Liberals.

The Liberal government’s federal budget did little to quell the damage, the poll found, with most Canadians indifferent about it and only a small minority impressed by Finance Minister Bill Morneau’s offerings.

The Conservatives are now sitting pretty in crucial provinces Ontario and British Columbia, with Trudeau managing to fall behind among two of the key demographics that swept him to victory in 2015, women and young people.

READ MORE: Jody Wilson-Raybould joins calls for judicial appointment leak probe amid SNC-Lavalin scandal

If an election were held tomorrow, the Conservatives would receive 40 per cent of the vote among decided voters, according to the poll of 1,002 Canadians conducted between March 25 and 27.

That’s unchanged since Ipsos’ last poll on March 4.

The Liberals would receive 30 per cent of the vote - down one point - while the NDP would receive 21 per cent and the Bloc Quebecois five per cent.

“Whatever this SNC-Lavalin thing is, it seems to have settled in. We’re creating a new normal in which the Conservatives are consistently ahead of the Liberal Party,” said Darrell Bricker, CEO of Ipsos Public Affairs.

<snip>
 

Jarnhamar

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Loachman said:
Thank you for your donation | Watch Justin Trudeau's arrogance | Michelle Rempel
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b73TMZ9zVfE

In Trudeau defence if you can't crack jokes about a place where kids are getting sick from mercury poisoning what CAN you joke about?

I just watched a clip of his apology. Looks like he hasn't perfected the art of keeping a straight face yet.
 

suffolkowner

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The Conservatives need to do well enough to gain a majority, otherwise we risk a Liberal-NDP government.
I was willing to give the Trudeau-Liberals a chance, even hoping as I  always do each election for a successful competent government but it seems like each government I have seen at the Federal and Provincial level has been worse than the one that preceded it.
 

Loachman

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suffolkowner said:
The Conservatives need to do well enough to gain a majority, otherwise we risk a Liberal-NDP government.

The last sentence of the poll article that I posted indicates the likelihood of a majority:

"When you take a look at where the Conservatives are leading, they're now leading everywhere you need to lead," Bricker said. "They really don't need anything else to beat the Liberals."
 

Cloud Cover

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As has been pointed out many times in these threads and elsewhere, elections are lost, not won.  If there's any party that can shoot their foot off  with a tweet and snatch defeat from victory, it is the CPC.
Rempell, Raitt and the other infantry from the smash mouth platoon are exhausting everyone, and soon the public will tune it out.
 

Fishbone Jones

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Is there any reason that the accompanying video that is collected, in the House, is not considered as part of Hansard? I'm speaking of the tape of the prolonged budget vote, where the NDP and Conservatives claim there were not enough liberals in the House for a certain line vote. If they were below the limit, the government has fallen to no confidence. The video of the incident apparently exists, but is not available.

I thought Hansard, belonged to the owners of the House, the Canadian people, not the occupiers, the sitting government. We should as individual citizens, be able to access any part or any time of Hansard without restriction. Would video of the recorded word not be viewed in the same light as the written word?

This is just the way I see thing as 'supposed to work like that'. I don't know if they do.

I'm sure someone will be along very shortly to correct me if wrong ;D
 

Remius

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Cloud Cover said:
As has been pointed out many times in these threads and elsewhere, elections are lost, not won.  If there's any party that can shoot their foot off  with a tweet and snatch defeat from victory, it is the CPC.
Rempell, Raitt and the other infantry from the smash mouth platoon are exhausting everyone, and soon the public will tune it out.

This is the issue.  Andrew Scheer already gave the Liberals ammunition for not denouncing or distancing himself from some white nationalists.  Expect more of that as the election ramps up.
 

Remius

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Fishbone Jones said:
Is there any reason that the accompanying video that is collected, in the House, is not considered as part of Hansard? I'm speaking of the tape of the prolonged budget vote, where the NDP and Conservatives claim there were not enough liberals in the House for a certain line vote. If they were below the limit, the government has fallen to no confidence. The video of the incident apparently exists, but is not available.

I thought Hansard, belonged to the owners of the House, the Canadian people, not the occupiers, the sitting government. We should as individual citizens, be able to access any part or any time of Hansard without restriction. Would video of the recorded word not be viewed in the same light as the written word?

This is just the way I see thing as 'supposed to work like that'. I don't know if they do.

I'm sure someone will be along very shortly to correct me if wrong ;D

For info only.

The situation that took place was that the opposition noticed that there wer not enough liberals in the house during routine motions.  They quickly seized on this and played a procedural move to get a confidence motion in place. However the liberals scrambled and avoided that.  So they almost fell into no confidence but avoided it.

Plenty of stories about it in the MSM.

https://globalnews.ca/news/5083783/house-of-commons-voting-marathon-liberals-confidence/



No cover up.  Hansard covers the transcripts and results of debates and votes.  Video is not always on when nothing is officially happening.
 

Jarnhamar

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Remius said:
This is the issue.  Andrew Scheer already gave the Liberals ammunition for not denouncing or distancing himself from some white nationalists.  Expect more of that as the election ramps up.

Andrew Scheer could pinky promise he hates white nationalists, open every conversation by denouncing white nationalists and get a black lives matter tattoo. The Liberals will still insnuate he's racist and criticize him for not denouncing white supremists. That's their thing.
 
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