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Run Up to Election 2019

https://business.financialpost.com/news/economy/weaker-gdp-than-anyone-expected-shows-canadian-growth-stalling?video_autoplay=true

Canada’s economy practically grinds to a halt — and nobody saw it coming - 1 Mar 19 - Financial Post
    Data reveals much bleaker picture than anyone anticipated with weakness extending well beyond the energy sector

Canada’s economy practically came to a halt in the final three months of 2018, in a much deeper-than-expected slowdown that brings the underlying strength of the expansion into doubt. The country’s economy grew by just 0.1 per cent in the fourth quarter, for an annualized pace of 0.4 per cent, Statistics Canada said Friday from Ottawa. That’s the worst quarterly performance in two and a half years, down from annualized 2 per cent in the third quarter and well below economist expectations for a 1 per cent annualized increase.

While a slowdown was widely expected in the final months of the year due to falling oil prices, it’s a much bleaker picture than anyone anticipated with weakness extending well beyond the energy sector. Consumption spending grew at the slowest pace in almost four years, housing fell by the most in a decade, business investment dropped sharply for a second straight quarter, and domestic demand posted its largest decline since 2015.

The only thing that kept the nation’s economy from contracting was a build-up in inventories as companies stockpiled goods.

At the very least, the numbers suggest that heightened uncertainty — everything from the impact of higher interest rates to potential trade wars and oil-sector woes — has made a real impact on both consumer and business sentiment. The question now is what the weaker-than-expected data suggests about the economy’s ability to rebound back to more normal growth levels. Most economists had been expecting the soft patch would come to an end by this spring and growth would accelerate closer to 2 per cent for the rest of the year. No one, however, expected the economy would need to come back from such a low point. The Bank of Canada’s latest forecast, from January, is for annualized growth of 1.3 per cent in the fourth quarter and 0.8 per cent in the first quarter, before the expansion accelerates back to above 2 per cent growth by next year.

Until recently, the economy had been doing relatively well even in the face of higher rates. It grew by a Group-of-Seven-best 3 per cent in 2017, and expanded at a healthy clip in the first half of last year — prompting the Bank of Canada to press ahead with higher borrowing costs. But even that strength had been overstated, with Statistics Canada revising down its estimates for first half growth to 2 per cent from 2.3 per cent. For all of 2018, the economy grew by 1.8 per cent — below the Bank of Canada’s estimate for 2 per cent. Monthly data released Friday show the economy ended the year contracting, with December gross domestic product down 0.1 per cent. The data suggest rising interest rates may be having a bigger impact on consumers than expected. Consumption slowed to an annualized 0.7 per cent pace in the four quarter, the weakest growth since the start of 2015 as households increased their savings.

Business investment also disappointed, with non-residential capital spending down an annualized 10.9 per cent — the third straight quarterly decline and the second consecutive drop of more than 10 per cent. Residential investment also contracted for a second straight quarter, down an annualized 14.7 per cent, the biggest drop since 2009.

The economy also wasn’t able to get a contribution from exporters who have helped lift growth over the past year. Exports recorded an annualized 0.2 per cent drop in the fourth quarter. Imports also declined, down 1.1 per cent. The biggest contributor to growth came from inventories — driven by machinery, food and wood producers.


By contrast:


https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-economy-grew-2-6-in-the-fourth-quarter-11551360960

U.S. Economy Grew 2.6% in the Fourth Quarter - 28 Feb 19
  For the year, consumer spending was robust thanks to strong job market, tax cuts and household income gains

WASHINGTON—The U.S. economy completed one of the best years of a nearly decade long expansion, growing at a modest pace in the fourth quarter despite slowdowns elsewhere in the world, turbulent financial markets, trade disputes with China and a partial government shutdown late in the year.


 

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Nobody saw it coming?

Millions of Canadians saw it coming and voiced, and continue, to voice their concerns. They were ignored then by the Trudeau Liberals and Bay St, as they are now. Our PM continues to shovel our rainy day dollars into the furnace of worldwide social ideals, knowing only some small portion of the funds actually get to where it's supposed to go. We have watched them close down industry and make Canada extremely business unfriendly. We have watched them bloat our welfare system with unsustainable, illegal recipients with all costs being borne by the taxpayer, but unsatisfied, they appear weekly with new ways of taxing us for more.

Nobody saw it coming? We all saw it coming, but we couldn't get the Canadian press to cover it honestly and show the world our emperor was naked.

That is the trouble with the Canadian Press. They treat us like morons, while ignoring the fact that Canadians see them for exactly what they are. Paid propagandists.

Harper warned Canada what would happen if Trudeau got elected. We knew it then and it's all coming to pass now.

So yeah, this isn't a big surprise to anyone. Everyone saw it coming.
 
Fishbone Jones said:
Nobody saw it coming?

Millions of Canadians saw it coming and voiced, and continue, to voice their concerns. They were ignored then by the Trudeau Liberals and Bay St, as they are now. Our PM continues to shovel our rainy day dollars into the furnace of worldwide social ideals, knowing only some small portion of the funds actually get to where it's supposed to go. We have watched them close down industry and make Canada extremely business unfriendly. We have watched them bloat our welfare system with unsustainable, illegal recipients with all costs being borne by the taxpayer, but unsatisfied, they appear weekly with new ways of taxing us for more.

Nobody saw it coming? We all saw it coming, but we couldn't get the Canadian press to cover it honestly and show the world our emperor was naked.

That is the trouble with the Canadian Press. They treat us like morons, while ignoring the fact that Canadians see them for exactly what they are. Paid propagandists.

Harper warned Canada what would happen if Trudeau got elected. We knew it then and it's all coming to pass now.

So yeah, this isn't a big surprise to anyone. Everyone saw it coming.

The slowdown was expected.  Just not one as bleak.

"While a slowdown was widely expected in the final months of the year due to falling oil prices, it’s a much bleaker picture than anyone anticipated with weakness extending well beyond the energy sector."
 
https://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/don-martin-here-s-an-inconvenient-truth-trudeau-s-brand-is-broken-1.4317297

Pretty much what most people are saying now.
 
Conservatives take slight lead over Liberals in latest Nanos tracking poll

CTVNews.ca Staff
Published Tuesday, March 5, 2019 12:57PM EST 

The Conservatives now have a slight edge over the Liberals, according to the latest Nanos Research federal ballot tracking.

The weekly tracking data, which ended March 1 and was released on Tuesday, shows the Conservatives at 34.7 per cent, followed by the Liberals at 34.2 per cent.

The NDP is at 15.5 per cent and the Green Party at 9.1 per cent.  The Bloc Quebecois got 3.6 per cent of the vote, while the People’s Party of Canada got 0.7 per cent.

(More at link)

https://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/conservatives-take-slight-lead-over-liberals-in-latest-nanos-tracking-poll-1.4323137
 
Extract of  email received 6 Mar 19,announcing Andrew Scheer's policy if elected.

That’s why I announced today that, if I become Prime Minister, not only will I scrap the carbon tax, but I’ll also bring in tax-free home energy – completely removing the federal tax from your home heating and energy bill.

Currently, the federal government doesn’t tax most essentials. Medical supplies, prescription drugs, and most groceries are all tax exempt. But, as you know, the government does charge tax on home heating. If you ask me, heating your home is a necessity, not a luxury.

As Prime Minister, I will be dedicated to lowering the cost of living for all Canadians.

I’ll reverse Justin Trudeau’s increased taxes on daily essentials, and put that money back in your pocket.
 
Rifleman62 said:
Extract of  email received 6 Mar 19,announcing Andrew Scheer's policy if elected.

That’s why I announced today that, if I become Prime Minister, not only will I scrap the carbon tax, but I’ll also bring in tax-free home energy – completely removing the federal tax from your home heating and energy bill.

Currently, the federal government doesn’t tax most essentials. Medical supplies, prescription drugs, and most groceries are all tax exempt. But, as you know, the government does charge tax on home heating. If you ask me, heating your home is a necessity, not a luxury.

As Prime Minister, I will be dedicated to lowering the cost of living for all Canadians.

I’ll reverse Justin Trudeau’s increased taxes on daily essentials, and put that money back in your pocket.
More on that from a party news release here, or as attached in case link doesn't work.
 

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One thing I always found interesting about the SNC Lavalin story was why the Attorney General and Public Prosecutor were so dead set on a trial. I suspected there was a lot more to the story than was being reported and apparently am correct. Reading this story, it is apparent that SNC Lavalin does not meet any of the requirements for offering a DP rather than a trial (i.e. self reporting of bribery, or the acts did not create any harm):

https://www.nationalobserver.com/2019/03/08/analysis/hidden-key-snc-lavalin-scandal

Stories like this will continue to erode the credibility of Trudeau and the Liberals, especially since we are still close enough in time to remember 1990 and 200 era Liberal scandals like Adscam. There will be a significant number of people who will link the "old" Liberals to the "New" Liberals because of these ethical failures. How much it moves the needle is harder to say.
 
Thucydides said:
https://www.nationalobserver.com/2019/03/08/analysis/hidden-key-snc-lavalin-scandal

Stories like this will continue to erode the credibility of Trudeau and the Liberals, especially since we are still close enough in time to remember 1990 and 200 era Liberal scandals like Adscam. There will be a significant number of people who will link the "old" Liberals to the "New" Liberals because of these ethical failures. How much it moves the needle is harder to say.

If the stories like that make their way into the actual MSM that Canadians read, and believe, then maybe. The "National Observer" is not mainstream enough, not even close.  I still believe that unless something totally nuclear happens with the personalities in this event (the facts and law seem to be irrelevant) then it will not have the immense detrimental impact that many seem to think it will.  The "moral authority to govern' that Andrew Scheer harps on does not resonate with many people, considering not enough people know enough about to take his credibility seriously. And those that do know him, would know that he had his own visits with SNC.
 
Liberals can't even make a law properly to help their friends out. They literally created DPAs after months of lobbying from SNC, and then $@#$ed up at making the law so it didn't even apply to SNC.
 
Although the Liberals are in the process of changing the Regulations: i.e. from 10 years to 10 months for SNC ;D

I really don't know what the time reduction will be.
 
Rifleman62 said:
Although the Liberals are in the process of changing the Regulations: i.e. from 10 years to 10 months for SNC ;D

I really don't know what the time reduction will be.

I was listening to Cross Country checkup today on CBC. A significant portion of that listening audience is willing to allow that something isn't right or that mistakes were made, but, A Conservative majority is much, much worse. Therefore, they still back Trudeau. Caller after caller questioned the motives of JWR, almost to the point of making me wonder if it was an organized campaign.

Apperently, if you are a hard core Trudeau fan , he could literally get away with murder. Because his motives are pure on climate change and feminism (!) are pure (I am paraphrasing one caller from Toronto.

This affair is no means a slam dunk for any of the opposition parties. Those that believe in the PM, do so with a religious fervour. That is pretty hard to shake, regardless of the evidence.
 
Well, at my age VAC says I don't have long to go, or long to put up with this Liberal shidt, I mean this Liberal shidt at the head (refuse to say leading) of the LPC.
 
SeaKingTacco said:
Apperently, if you are a hard core Trudeau fan , he could literally get away with murder. Because his motives are pure on climate change and feminism (!) are pure (I am paraphrasing one caller from Toronto

I don't know about "murder" , but his contempt for blue collar resource based workers has created economic, political and legal outcomes that must have caused some to feel like that. He obviously has no conscience about many of the things he's done, but then again millions of Canadians are behind him about those very same things.
 
SeaKingTacco said:
Apparently, if you are a hard core Trudeau fan , he could literally get away with murder. Because his motives are pure on climate change and feminism (!) are pure (I am paraphrasing one caller from Toronto.

Same goes for any polarized person of any political stripe.  Something that is on the rise.

Everyone should ask a themselves a simple question.  Do you hate your political opponents?  Real hate.  If so you are likely polarized and extreme. 

A few articles on that subject.

https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2019/jan/20/canadas-political-polarization-rises-kills-image-m/

https://www.macleans.ca/politics/why-were-calling-out-the-left-and-the-right-of-canadian-politics/

 
Identity politics works both ways. I'm not going to not vote for someone solely on one scandal.

Would I rather have an incompetent PM and a corrupt party but who's policies I agree with; or
Would I rather have a competent PM, a less corrupt party (lol), but a bunch of policies that I totally disagree with.

Similarity, what's more important to you? Social policy or economic policy? If someone could prove that they could make us all rich, but we'd have to execute all people who pronounce "Gif" as "Jif" would you take that trade?

Ok, that's a ridiculous example, but lets look how Trump got support form so may "normal" people. Look at how he survived all the allegations of sexual harassment, including that abhorrent audio recording with TMZ. People were rightly mortified at the things he said and did, but would they rather have Trump and republican policies, or a less deplorable Clinton and Democratic policies? For a lot of them who voted Trump, they recognized that Trump was a vile creature undeserving of the office of President, but they felt the damage of a Democratic president would be worse than damage caused by Trump.

So, do people deplore the unethical behaviour of Trudeau and the LPC? Sure. Is it enough to warrant switching from the LPC to the CPC? You have to take an actual look at the difference between the two, not just their leaders, and ask which is better for Canada.

And the crux of it is, once you do that, you realize that who's at the helm and what they did don't actually matter at all.
 
The LPC is trudeau. Backbenchers don't talk or contribute, they are simply there to vote and every motion is whipped. Lackeys get jobs to do his bidding. Every word uttered, is vetted by the PMO. Trudeau is the party, along with the other Laurentien Elites. Chretien, Martin, Mulroney to name a few. Most everything done by the liberals, legislated or not, benefits one, some or all of them. SNC, Bombardier, Power Corp. Owned and staffed by LEs. They have never cared for Canada as a collective.They have massive foreign oil investments, so they took out the Canadian competition. They own most of the banking and financial houses. They own most of the insurance companies. And they own the media.

I have all the info I need to vote.
 
Fishbone Jones said:
hey have never cared for Canada as a collective.They have massive foreign oil investments, so they took out the Canadian competition. They own most of the banking and financial houses. They own most of the insurance companies. And they own the media.

I have all the info I need to vote.

The 'big five' Canadian banks are all publicly traded, and their largest owners are in fact each other and their own investment banking branches, plus a couple of the major mutual funds / pensions (Vanguard, Fidelity, Quebec Pension Plan, etc). Almost all of the major shareholders are themselves publicly traded companies owned by an increasingly broad array of international financial powerhouses the more one follows ownership up. Major share holdings for these companies are all disclosed and pretty easy to follow if one cares to look.

The media industry is a bit more nebulous. Rogers is sufficiently owned by the Rogers family that it can be fairly called privately controlled. They're a Toronto family. Bell is publicly traded and has no controlling shareholders, but rather is owner by a broad array of major institutional investors. Corus - a Shaw holding - is privately controlled by the Shaw family of Alberta. Quebecor is controlled by the Peladeau family, but given PKP's history with the Parti Québecois, I'm not sure if he can be credited as among the 'Laurentian Elite' since that perjorative has a necessarily Liberal connotation... And Quebecor also owns the Sun chain, so I'm not sure if that really fits the 'Liberals own the media' line of rhetoric. Anyway, moving right past that awkward stumble, we've got Postmedia- they're publicly traded with two different share classes to navigate around foreign-control regulations, but they aren't even truly a Canaidan controlled company anymore- the biggest strings are held by US hedge funds.

Now, I'm only speaking about what I've actually spoken to - the media and banking companies. I've not gone into detail on the other ventures you mentioned, though I'm happy to concede that there is probably considerable influence within major Quebec businesses like SNC, Bombardier, and Powercorp. Further dissecting that is beyond the scope of my reply. I will say though that to try to paint our media and banks as if they are in the greedy, grasping hands of some small group of Québecois Liberals must at least arch one's eyebrows. I would respectfully suggest that whatever time you're spending reading sources that lead you to this mindset, perhaps devote a portion of that to fact checking things like corporate ownership... The info is all out there. Frankly some of what you said borders nearly on the hysterical.
 
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