Quebec Election: 4 Sep 12

[Edward Campbell]

Starting out by fulfilling campaign promises is good, but since these promises are very similar to those policies followed by the current US administration, we can expect similar results. Big question should be, "when is the Quebec economy going to implode?". Secondary question is "When are Canada's "Have" provinces going to refuse to continue paying for the "Have not" provinces"? We can see the dynamic playing out in Europe, where Germans are resisting efforts to saddle them with the bailout payments for the PIIGS; this is probably going to become the flashpoint in Canadian politics for the next generation (it could take decades to fill in a half trillion dollar hole for Quebec alone, and if the McGuinty government remains on course, there will be another $400 billion debt weighing down Ontario. Between these two provinces alone we have a debt equal to the Federal Debt (and this does not count unfunded liabilities like pensions either)).

http://fullcomment.nationalpost.com/2012/09/21/matt-gurney-on-marois-vision-of-an-independent-quebec-that-someone-else-pays-for/

The short answer is: never. The idea of inter-provincial transfers lies at the very heart of all federations. The whole point of a United States of America or a Federal Republic of Germany or, indeed of a Dominion of Canada is to share the wealth, to some degree. Some federal states, like Australia, Germany and India do it a little more smoothly than does Canada, in large part because their constitutions were written with the benefit of our experiences. As I recall, maybe imperfectly, the Federal-Provincial Conferences that led us towards the 1982 Constitution dealt, formally, with equalization, concluding that it was a full part of the federal system; the Supremes eventually confirmed that.

If (when?) Europe, parts of the Eurozone, anyway, moves towards a federation - which is what De Gasperi, Monnet, Schuman and Spaak probably had in mind in 1950 - it too will have to include a formal equalization mechanism.

 

[a_majoor]

Political arrangements tend to break down when one party feels they are being exploited by the other party (parties in the sense of people with contractual obligations towards each other, not political parties). Like I mentioned upthread, and has been mentioned in the Europe thread, the people being asked to pay are increasingly resentful of that, and in the case of Europe, they can indeed break the EUzone along the lines of those who can pay (but don't want to anymore) and those who can't pay (but still want all the goodies).

While the Premier of Alberta might not be able to put a "stop payment" order on cheques for equalization, the have provinces do have considerable leverage (since they do have the money, after all), and we should consider how they will be pressuring the Federal government or the have not provinces directly to reduce the equalization burden. (Of course the only real way is to make have not provinces adopt economic policies that spur saving, investment and economic growth so no one needs to be a "have not" province anymore, but that would be common sense...)

 

[Edward Campbell]

But, Thucydides, there is no appreciable discontent in Canada, hors de Quebec, and la belle province has a unique set of (almost totally imaginary) grievances. In fact Alberta and Quebec often share a desire for greater autonomy.

Even in the USA we do not see any moves by e.g. Governor Perry in Texas to kick California out of the Union.

I agree that regional discontent will slow (but, I suspect, not stop) unification in Europe.

 

[Remius]

The Canadian "push-back" begins with asbestos according to this article which is reproduced under the Fair Dealing provisions of the Copyright Act from the Globe and Mail:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/canada-to-cease-defending-asbestos-mining/article4545704/

This is a repeat of the health care funding decision: no discussions, no federal-provincial meetings, no negotiations ... just a clear, simple announcement. It is classic Stephen Harper.

I don't want to sound like CD 'What's a Million?' Howe, but "up to $50-million in assistance for towns dependent on the industry" is chickenfeed in the 21st century.

I'm guessing that Mme. Marois is spitting mad about this but I suspect it is the shape of things to come for Quebec.

I don't think Marois is spitting mad at all.  Yes she was obviously picking a fight she didn't get but she accomplished plenty of secondary objectives.  For one she torpedoed the efforts the conservatives put into keeping asbestos mining.  She makes herself look good by looking like she got what she wanted.  She also made a portion of the population unemployed and disenfranchised, which is one of the PQ's goals to stir seperatist feelings.  Really this was win win for her.

The shape of things to come?  Well yes you nailed it.  the PQ doesn't care what Canada thinks one way or the other.  They care about what french quebeckers think.  She appoints a rabid anti-anglo as her minister of anglophone affairs.  Basically she wants to sow discord between both groups.  The anglos in quebec will be up in arms, likely making constitutional challenges to protect their rights.  It does not matter if Harper and Canada stay out of it.  An Anglo from Quebec might as well be an Anglo from Alberta.  And the PQ will frame it that way (anglo=Canada, franco=Quebec).  The PQ will just use the anglos in Quebec to get the fight they know Harper won't be baited into.  Again win win for the PQ.

Tuition freeze?  Discussions on free tuition?  How much do you want to bet they have that summit and the conclusion is that free tuition is only possible in a free and independant Quebec?  and that it gets added to their framework?  Never mind that's it isn't true, they'll just use it to get what they want.

The PQ aren't concerned about economics or prosperity.  They want out, even if it means turning Quebec into a bigger economic toilet

 

[a_majoor]

But, Thucydides, there is no appreciable discontent in Canada,

Did you forget the <sarc> smiley? 

BTW Governor Perry has a message for big spenders as well:

 

[Maxadia]

Hoo-boy...here we go:

http://www.ctvnews.ca/canada/quebec-student-group-wants-free-tuition-now-that-hike-is-off-the-table-1.967633

QUEBEC -- One Quebec student group says that with tuition hikes officially off the table, it will now champion the idea of free education.
The new Parti Quebecois government scrapped a controversial increase in post-secondary tuition fees this week and a hardline student group is now turning to free education as its long-term goal.
CLASSE, which speaks for 100,000 Quebec students, says free education is entirely achievable and used a march attended by several hundred people on Saturday to highlight the issue.
"Our struggle for accessibility to higher education is not yet over," said Jeremie Bedard-Wien, a spokesman for CLASSE.
Free education is not a position that is shared by the province's two other major student associations and with the proposed hike by the former Liberal government formally cancelled, Quebec has the lowest tuition in the country again.
But CLASSE says it wants education to be completely accessible by being entirely free.
It's an opinion that has limited political support.
The PQ government has said it favours indexing tuition to inflation but has promised to call a symposium on the issue.
The CLASSE will counter indexing tuition in favour of "education that is free -- not only from tuition fees -- but also from corporate influence," Bedard-Wien said.
Students celebrated a victory on Saturday that had them in the streets for months. Premier Pauline Marois, on her first full day in office, kept an election promise by cutting the Liberal's proposed tuition hike.
The province's universities have long said they are chronically under funded and facing shortfalls. By cutting the proposed hike, the province's tuition stands at $2,168 per year.
According to Statistics Canada, tuition has risen in every province except for Newfoundland and Labrador and now Quebec.
On average, Canadian students elsewhere will pay about $5,500 this year. Students in Ontario pay the highest in tuition -- more than $7,100.
In a minority government situation, the likelihood of achieving free education in the current climate is highly unlikely, says one opposition Quebec politician who favours free education.
Francoise David of Quebec Solidaire says her party is in favour of free education and will continue to promote it.
David says her party has demonstrated that it is economically feasible in terms of a five-year plan where funding slowly shifts to a zero-tuition model without cutting university funding.
However the opposition Liberals and The Coalition for Quebec's Future most definitely are not on board, David said.
"It will be possible for a government that has the mandate," David said. "It's a question of time: we have to go step-by-step and convince the population that it's possible."
Some students say they like the idea of not having to pay tuition and it's worth considering to ensure everyone has a chance to pursue education at a higher level.
"I think it's a stark transition, I'm for it personally," says Jason Ghikadis, 30, a Univerisite of Montreal student in the faculty of music, who attended Saturday's protest.
"I think that realistically putting it in place ... will take a bit of time."
Bedard-Wien, citing examples such as Germany and Scandinavian countries, say Quebec could follow those models.
He says he believes its possible in Quebec with better management of university funds and a commitment to allocate tax dollars and find financing from other sources.
"These are societies that have made progressive political choices for public services to be accessible," Bedard-Wien said, noting that Quebec can do the same.
"That we have tuition here is a political choice that can be reversed."
Saturday's march was a mostly peaceful event, held under a steady rain. Police and protesters had brief skirmishes during isolated altercations.
Montreal police reported two arrests after projectiles were launched and an officer suffered a knee injury. Charges -- if any -- were not specified.
Quebec Solidaire's David also said Saturday that her party favours a public inquiry into police actions over the course of the entire student conflict -- spanning several months and including near-daily protests.
While those marches have come to a halt, student movement organizers warn they are ready to go again in big numbers if need be.
"Given that the strike is no longer and many students are in intensive catch-up situations, we won't see numbers like before," Bedard-Wien said.
"But if the newly elected government decides to attack students, they can expect mobilization to pick up at the same levels as the spring."

 

[George Wallace]

How communist of them.

 

[GAP]

PQ plans to tax rich to pay for health care
By Judith Plamondon, QMI Agency
Article Link

MONTREAL - The Parti Quebecois government said it will tax businesses and the rich in order to cover money lost due to an expensive campaign pledge.

After promising to cut the $200 yearly, Liberal-imposed health care tax, the PQ government said businesses and the rich will cover the $845 million shortfall.

Shirley Bishop, spokeswoman for the Premier`s office, told QMI Agency Saturday that the government plans to create two personal income tax brackets to pay for the cuts, one for those making over $130,000 and the second for incomes higher than $250,000. Businesses will also be taxed higher to help pay for health care.

The PQ wants personal and commercial incomes made since last January to be taxable. However, Bishop said the tax shouldn't be considered "retroactive" since it will only apply when Quebecers file their taxes in 2013.

Bishop said the government hasn't decided how much the new tax will be, nor how it will impose it. The PQ could raise taxes by ministerial decree or bring its plan to a vote at the legislature.

However, the minority government must get the support of opposition parties, which could be difficult.


The Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ), Quebec's third party, also promised to abolish the health care tax but told QMI Agency Saturday that it was against imposing new taxes.

"Quebecers are overtaxed," said CAQ spokesman Christian Dube. "We have already stated that we are against the creation of (new taxes)."
end

 

[armyvern]

Sigh. Hey career shop ... post my old man out of this province already would ya!! 

 

[Edward Campbell]

PQ plans to tax rich to pay for health care
...
the government plans to create two personal income tax brackets to pay for the cuts, one for those making over $130,000 and the second for incomes higher than $250,000. Businesses will also be taxed higher to help pay for health care.
...
end

Thucydides often comments of the idea of the most productive people fleeing high tax jurisdictions. The last flight of Quebec's highest achievers was over language but this, too, could do it.

To put things in perspective: $130,000 per year includes most Navy captains and Army/RCAF colonels ~ they are not exactly "rich" by any stretch of the imagination.

 

[Good2Golf]

I'm not sure that anyone could come up with a more effective way to encourage investors and business to move out of Quebec if they tried.  I don't know of a single case where "tax the rich and business" resulted in any lasting increase to revenues.  Short-term increases perhaps, but at the price of long-term sustainability of increased revenue stream.

I think there is more to this than revenue.  If I put on my  :Tin-Foil-Hat:, I might think that it is a deliberate move to drive anglo/allophones and non-francophone-based business out of the province.

Regards
G2G

 

[Edward Campbell]

I'm not sure that anyone could come up with a more effective way to encourage investors and business to move out of Quebec if they tried.  I don't know of a single case where "tax the rich and business" resulted in any lasting increase to revenues.  Short-term increases perhaps, but at the price of long-term sustainability of increased revenue stream.

I think there is more to this than revenue.  If I put on my  :Tin-Foil-Hat:, I might think that it is a deliberate move to drive anglo/allophones and non-francophone-based business out of the province.

Regards
G2G

I'm inclined to agree G2G: the policy is so dumb, notwithstanding the need to raise money, that one must suspect one of two things:

1. Premier Marois, Ms Bishop, et al are terminally stupid; or

2. There is more to it ~ and ethnic cleansing fits well within the PQ's recent musings about Quebec society.

 

[Old Sweat]

Considering how rapidly health cares expenses are rising, I suspect this is being done for cosmetic reasons. Even if they taxed the wealthy at 50 or 60 or 75 or even 110%, the additional amount the provincial treasury would raise would probably be a drop in the bucket. The next step would be to raise taxes, probably consumption or sin taxes because these are harder to avoid.

Mind you, one must never discount stupidity (economic and otherwise) combined with a vindictive streak when dealing with politicians with a messianic agenda that is not supported by a majority of the population.

 

[Fishbone Jones]

Just tabling the bill, and having it fall to a combined opposition, will give her the opportunity she needs to start pleading for a majority when her minority government inevitably falls.

I suspect we'll see many more whacko ideads like this one, coming from her government, that are doomed to failure intentionally, just to push a message for a majority next time around.

 

[GAP]

I suspect that if they play it right the new third party CAUC? will have a decent shot in the next go around.....the PQ are playing right into their hands...

 

[Old Sweat]

If she is astute enough and does not govern as if she had a majority (can you spell Joe Clark,) she may be able to hold on for a year or so. By then the enquiry will have dragged the Liberals through the mud from several directions and the PQ will have manufactured a host of humiliations at the hand of the Feds. In the meantime, good, prudent government will be nowhere to be seen. This mob is just loonie enough to opt for free education, and then to demand the Feds fund it. Humiliation, anyone?

 

[SeaKingTacco]

It is a bit too clever by half of the PQ.

I think they may be counting on the tax increase to drive out the " rich Anglos" (this assumes they can  even get it through a National Assembly, in which they do not hold the majority) while the " rich" Francos will be unable to leave (what other French speaking jurisdiction in the world is in good economic shape?  Perhaps a telling fact..)

The problem is that even the "rich" Francos may hit a point where the wallet means more than nationalism.  Most of them are actually bilingual and have options, too.

Interesting times.

 

[a_majoor]

This could also go under "Deconstructing Progressive thought", but it is a pretty good look at what the program of the PQ actually is (given it is a National Socialist party, this is no big surprise). I think it is pretty fair to say that most people reading the thread are already of the informed opinion that this economic program will only lead to disaster. Sadly, empirical evidence from the 20th century (and comparative evidence going back to antiquity) has yet to change people's minds; when Quebec goes down in flames you will still have people insisting that they just didn't do it right...:

http://phantomobserver.com/blog/?p=15688

The Great Quebec Experiment, Or: The Canadian Left’s Last Chance
Posted on 23 September 2012 by PhantomObserver

Let’s say, for the sake of thought experimentation, that the current Quebec minority government decides to put the sovereignty idea on the back burner and get serious — and I mean, no-spit, nuts-and-bolts-level, boring-to-everyone-but-public-administrators serious — about governance. Could they make it work?

It’s no idle question. When you look at Matt Gurney’s critique of the Marois government in its early days, you’ll realize that this isn’t just a listing of policy steps that Mr. Gurney has issues with. It’s also the shopping list of a government with a “progressive” background, leading a population and society that’s more accepting of “progressive” ideas in the mainstream.

Think about it. Low university tuition (or even, some news stories suggest, free tuition). “Green”-informed and -influenced decision-making on economic exploitation, such as not pursuing shale gas opportunities. Searching for more opportunities to “tax the rich.” These are decisions that the Left, in other provinces, would certainly have approved of in the name of “preserving the community and its values” — that is, if the Left actually had a mandate to do so, unencumbered by a need to survive by accommodating the Right.

The thing about Quebec is that allegations of corruption have crippled the one political party perceived as being the voice of economic conservatism; it will take at least a year, more likely three or four as well as some generational change, before the PLQ can regain the trust of the electorate. And even though the PQ have a minority government, there are hundreds of decisions it can make on economic policy that don’t require legislative action.

So: a rare opportunity, not just for progressives in Quebec but for the Left in Canada, to prove a point and answer a question: in the absence of a “conservative” movement, can a genuinely progressive government in Canada succeed today?

The standard for success: re-election of the PQ as a continuing minority or a majority government. The standard for failure: loss of confidence followed by loss of power in an election. The same standard that, on a national level, Stephen Harper’s Tories were held to since 2006. Who here thinks the PQ can do it?

I don't think this is the proper "standard", we should be looking at such things as net immigration/emigration, employment, GDP growth/decline and GDP/Capita (I'm sure you can think of other metrics). After all, California has routinely elected Democrat Governors and legislatures (the blogger's standard for success) yet fails horribly using the various economic metrics listed above.

 

[Brad Sallows]

Please stop criticizing the PQ.  Please endorse their taxation proposals and laud them as fiscal geniuses.  Do so frequently, loudly, and openly.

 

[jollyjacktar]

Please stop criticizing the PQ.  Please endorse their taxation proposals and laud them as fiscal geniuses (like Forrest Gump).  Do so frequently, loudly, and openly.

emphasis mine.  ;D