Polls and issues

[Edward Campbell]

I found this article, which is reproduced under the Fair Dealing provisions of the Copyright Act from the Globe and Mail, interesting because of the "issues" involved rather than the numbers:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/john-ibbitson/ndp-tie-tories-in-popular-support/article2377342/

NDP ties Tories in popular support

JOHN IBBITSON

OTTAWA— From Thursday's Globe and Mail
Published Wednesday, Mar. 21, 2012


The New Democrats will begin their leadership convention on Friday with a remarkable wind filling their sails. For the first time in 25 years, the polling firm Environics has them in first place, tied with the Conservatives.

That wind isn’t quite as brisk as it might seem: The NDP is not doing better in public opinion, the Conservatives are simply doing much worse. And the Bloc Québécois is surging dangerously in Quebec.

Still, first place is first place. The last time Environics had the New Democrats in first – in that instance, all on their own – was under Ed Broadbent during the free trade debate in 1987.

The survey by Environics Research Group provided to The Globe and Mail has the two parties at 30 per cent support among voters. That’s about the same percentage of the popular vote that the NDP earned in the May 2 general election. For the Conservatives, it represents a drop of 10 points.

The Conservatives are clearly paying a price for the robo-calls affair, plans to increase the qualifying age for Old Age Security, legislation that would give the government information on individual Internet accounts, and increased uncertainty over the costs of new fighter jets.

These issues “haven’t been managed particularly well,” said Darren Karasiuk, vice-president of corporate and public affairs at Environics.

“And they haven’t been managed well in spite of the lack of solid and stable leadership from the NDP or Liberals.

“So there’s a disappointment among Canadians – particularly soft Tories – that the promised benefits of a majority haven’t materialized.”

The Liberals are in third place with 20-per-cent support, up one point from election day. The Bloc has the support of 30 per cent of voters in Quebec, only four percentage points behind the NDP, which swept the province last May.

But if the Bloc is threatening to challenge the NDP’s newfound popularity in Quebec, the social democrats can take comfort in knowing they lead in British Columbia and Atlantic Canada, and are a close third in a three-way race for support in Ontario.

They are also the first choice of female voters. And while the Tories continue to lead among voters over 60, who are more likely to cast a ballot than younger people, that lead over the NDP is only seven percentage points, suggesting the idea of raising the retirement age for OAS is not going down well among retirees.

The fact that the NDP has been without a permanent leader may be a bit of a blessing, Mr. Karasiuk believes.

“Some people, without a leader in place, will project a perfect leader in their minds,” he said.

The months ahead are bound to bring changes, as the NDP’s new leader takes the national stage, the Conservatives finally present a budget that reduces the deficit at the expense of government programs, and the Liberals move toward choosing a permanent leader of their own.

But Interim Leader Nycole Turmel can take satisfaction in knowing that, however uncertain her performance might have been at times, she will be handing her successor a party as popular today as when it leapt to official opposition status in last May’s election.

The survey was in the field from March 6 to 18, sampling 2,000 respondents by phone, with a margin of error of 2.4 per cent.

Environics is not the only pollster ever to have the NDP in first place since the fight over free trade. Last August, shortly after leader Jack Layton died, a Decima poll also had the NDP and Conservatives tied.

I don't find the numbers troubling - the Liberals and NDP are exactly where they were 10 months ago, the Tories have fallen, as many parties in power do, and they can afford to drop some popularity during the first two years of a mandate IF they have a sound programme.

What I find interesting is the litany of issues: "The Conservatives are clearly paying a price for the

+ robo-calls affair,
+ plans to increase the qualifying age for Old Age Security,
+ legislation that would give the government information on individual Internet accounts, and
+ increased uncertainty over the costs of new fighter jets."

Now, I agree they all are "issues" and I agree, even more, with Darren Karasiuk, vice-president of corporate and public affairs at Environics, who said that they “haven’t been managed particularly well.” But I do wonder about the significance of the "issues." The robo-calls is, in my opinion 90% contrived media outrage; the old age security thing is a really serious matter and I think some of the print media have tried to clarify it - but not enough people read the business pages, including the political reporters. The end result is that Canadians are misinformed by the very people they trust to tell them the facts. The "lawful access" to telecommunications is also a serious matter and it, too, in my opinion has been badly handled by the media - it is impossible for Canadians to assess the pros and cons if the media treats them like mushrooms and the media, including (maybe especially) the blogosphere, is in a conflict of interest which just makes matters worse. The government could have and should have bought its own media time to tell Canadians the pros and cons and whys and wherefores of its proposed legislation.

About the fighter jets: We have known, for about 70 years now, that Canadians do not like spending money on their national defence - the red T-shirts and yellow ribbons are meaningless pap - canadians do NOT "support the troops, " not in any way that matters. The decision to buy new aircraft can be "sold," albeit with difficulty but it is best treated as "ho hum." The Conservatives are not good communicators - they try to deflect legitimate opposition questions by suggesting that the opposition are disloyal or dislike the men and women in the RCAF; it's hard to blame the media for trying to get the story out when it looks like the government is hiding something about which it is ashamed. The correct "line" is that this government is simply continuing a long standing, bipartisan programme of buying the CF the minimum essential quantities of the best kit we can afford and, at this moment, that looks like a fairly small handful of very advanced fighter jets. But no, this government has to play partisan political games with defence procurement - something that ought to be a non-issue.

No one ever expects the media to "support" the government and this particular government and the parliamentary press gallery have a fairly high level of mutual animosity but one should expect the government to be better at communicating on important issues - and three of the four that are list above are important.

The polls are reflecting the government's performance, which has been less than stellar. I hope this is a wakeup call. But: they are not even halfway through their first two years; they have until the end of 2013 to do all the unpopular things, and then they have from Jan 2014 to the next election, most likely on 19 Oct 15, to campaign for reelection.
 

 

[Kalatzi]

From the previuous post by ERC

it is impossible for Canadians to assess the pros and cons if the ******** treats them like mushrooms "

"the government could have and should have bought its own media time to tell Canadians the pros and cons and whys and wherefores of its proposed legislation."

It seems to me that we are on a very slippery slope here.

Sure FDR did it, many are not too fond of him. Others  both more and less savory have done so as well.

PM Trudeau faced with a similar situation tried to cteate an Ïnformation Canada" and was forced to give it up. Of course many will say it was simply folded into the CBC.

Many see this government as one that is alreaddy too concerned with control of the message.

Personally, I think they are playing their cards with great skill.

If they don't like the level of flak their facing now, escalating the game as above is likeley to reap them a whirlwind.

 

[Kalatzi]

I'll  try y to get my message more on key by retracting the second line above.

I agree with most of ERC's main points.  The CPC seems most capable of governing through the tough times ahead.

Its communications need a LOT of work, and a media buy is a dubious fix.

 

[PuckChaser]

"the government could have and should have bought its own media time to tell Canadians the pros and cons and whys and wherefores of its proposed legislation."

Then you're going to have the crying and complaining about wasting taxpayer dollars on advertising and propoganda. A good compromise to get the message out (as I would agree the CPC needs to fix some PR issues and be proactive) is to use the CBC to broadcast the occasional information message. We're already subsidizing their station, so why not get some good out of that billion dollars we're sinking every year into them?

 

[ModlrMike]

It's rather hard to communicate effectively when there's a hostile media. If you do - it's propaganda, if you don't - you're hiding something. Just look at the robocall issue as an example. Accusation without evidence, yet still they were guilty.

 

[Edward Campbell]

It's rather hard to communicate effectively when there's a hostile media. If you do - it's propaganda, if you don't - you're hiding something. Just look at the robocall issue as an example. Accusation without evidence, yet still they were guilty.

Quite right, and then what happens is that real, important issues, like raising the age for future OAS eligibility or the need for and cost of the F-35 get swept up in a general frenzy of "gotcha journalism" and everyone, government, people and even the media, itself, suffers: the government cannot get a clear message out, the people cannot understand the issues and the media loses even more credibility.

 

[Kalatzi]

I don't think that "the Media" is the uniformly hostile presence that some make it out to be.

QMI, that owns the Sun Media chain seems very receptive to the CPC agenda.

PostMedia receptive.  Globe and Mail neutral. Both of the last two more or less. 

TorStar? Now there's a challenge.

Now? We'll have a throw a "Hell Freezes over" party before that will happen.

That leaves us without that den of vipers the CBC. Hey, wait a minute. Didn't both Sen Wallin and Duffy come from there?

I wonder what was up with that?

Yes, OAS and the fighter issues are tough ones that aren't best discussed in sound bites.

Even I think their taking the right approach with the Fighters, and likely OAS as well.

I think that the government needs to work on its messaging in conventional channels. 

 

[Rifleman62]

Below is an example of the Media Party at work. Who does a better job: the blogosphere or the Media Party represented by it's standard bearer, the taxpayer funded CBC? You decide.

ERC:

the media treats them like mushrooms and the media, including (maybe especially) the blogosphere, is in a conflict of interest

Kalatzi:

that den of vipers the CBC

http://bcblue.wordpress.com/2012/03/21/cbc-intentionally-hid-backgrounds-of-robocall-complainers/

CBC intentionally hid backgrounds of robocall complainers?

March 21, 2012 — BC Blue

I get very suspicious when 10 months later, people ‘suddenly remember’ receiving a robocall during the election and then, quelle surprise, get hold of the media.

Today’s example comes from the CBC who ran this story titled “Yukoners report getting election robocalls” and quote a Sylvie Leonard and a Bob Nardi.

So, I did a quick Google search and immediately found people with these names both tied to government unions:

Sylvie Leonard – Yukon Area Council for Public Service Alliance of Canada Youth Committee (see here)

Bob Nardi – Communications Officer Yukon Employees Union (see here)

There is no by-line on the story so I can’t directly ask the reporter if these are the same people quoted but maybe I can email the CBC news department and find out?

Update: I have now emailed Bob Nardi from the Yukon Employees Union and cc’ed their executive director as well as put in an inquiry to the CBC.

Update: The Sylvie Leonard interviewed is married to Jean-François Des Lauriers who ran as a NDP Yukon candidate (see here) and is PSAC’s Regional Executive Vice-President for the North (see here). h/t Krysta Meekins

The frggen lazy loosers in the Media Party could have found this if they wanted to.