Ontario Politics in 2018

[pbi]

This was not what I wanted, but it was what I was very sure would happen. Ford is not my idea of conservatism: he represents a kind of ignorant, blustering populism that in my opinion often draws energy from factions I would rather not see anywhere near the levers of power.

He will win the Provincial election, possibly with a minority, but he will win. He will do this because he will peddle an "anti-elite, aww-shucks I'm just a little guy, let's get those civil servant parasites" shtick which will play well in the Northern and less urbanized ridings, where they see the urban centre as having largely forgotten about them. I predict he will sweep all of those ridings.

He will do well (but perhaps not quite as well) in the urbanized ridings where the huge majority of Ontarians live, for two reasons. First, we're Canadians and our reflex is to "vote against" after two terms or so. (Which IMHO is not necessarily a bad thing, given the inherent failings of our political system). Second, much like the Federal Tories in the final desperate days before their last defeat, I believe that he will by design turn to cultivate certain ethnic communities marked by their social conservatism (sometimes, unfortunately, their extreme social conservatism). These were, IMHO, the groups Kellie Leitch may have been trying to warn Canadians about before she flamed out.

So, if those two lines of effort work (and I'm sure they will), Doug will win.

I don't really know exactly what I will do come voting time. I want these Liberals out, for several reasons, but I had very much hoped for a Red Tory victory in the Ontario PC leadership campaign. Nor, BTW, do I ever want to see the NDP in power in Ontario again. Unfortunately for me (and people like me) Ford does not represent my kind of moderate conservatism.

 

[suffolkowner]

This was not what I wanted, but it was what I was very sure would happen. Ford is not my idea of conservatism: he represents a kind of ignorant, blustering populism that in my opinion often draws energy from factions I would rather not see anywhere near the levers of power.

He will win the Provincial election, possibly with a minority, but he will win. He will do this because he will peddle an "anti-elite, aww-shucks I'm just a little guy, let's get those civil servant parasites" shtick which will play well in the Northern and less urbanized ridings, where they see the urban centre as having largely forgotten about them. I predict he will sweep all of those ridings.

He will do well (but perhaps not quite as well) in the urbanized ridings where the huge majority of Ontarians live, for two reasons. First, we're Canadians and our reflex is to "vote against" after two terms or so. (Which IMHO is not necessarily a bad thing, given the inherent failings of our political system). Second, much like the Federal Tories in the final desperate days before their last defeat, I believe that he will by design turn to cultivate certain ethnic communities marked by their social conservatism (sometimes, unfortunately, their extreme social conservatism). These were, IMHO, the groups Kellie Leitch may have been trying to warn Canadians about before she flamed out.

So, if those two lines of effort work (and I'm sure they will), Doug will win.

I don't really know exactly what I will do come voting time. I want these Liberals out, for several reasons, but I had very much hoped for a Red Tory victory in the Ontario PC leadership campaign. Nor, BTW, do I ever want to see the NDP in power in Ontario again. Unfortunately for me (and people like me) Ford does not represent my kind of moderate conservatism.

This is pretty much my view as well, although I can see Ford reaping the benefit that Brown has done in the East Indian communities.

 

[Altair]

I'm of a opposite mind.

Ontario,  on a whole,  is a left leaning province. To win Ontario,  you need to win,  or at least be competitive in Toronto. And a vote split among the left helps.  And most importantly,  even among the left,  there was liberal fatigue. Wynne is hated. Even if they wouldn't come out and vote PC,  a lot of liberals would have stayed home if Elliot or Mulroney had won.

But now there is ford. The man who couldn't win the mayors race now had to be competative in toronto(and Ottawa)

Liberals who might have stayed home now have a reason to come out and vote for whatever party can keep ford out.  And in doing so,  eliminate the vote split among the left

He's the perfect storm of bad for the PC party.

 

[Fishbone Jones]

Noted hash dealer for many years, according to the Globe and Mail, in an article published in 2013, years before he ran to become the PCPO leader.

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/toronto/globe-investigation-the-ford-familys-history-with-drug-dealing/article12153014/

And nothing. No charges, no conviction, nothing. Your letting the press drive your narrative.
The Mop & Pail. 

 

[mariomike]

Noted hash dealer for many years, according to the Globe and Mail, in an article published in 2013, years before he ran to become the PCPO leader.

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/toronto/globe-investigation-the-ford-familys-history-with-drug-dealing/article12153014/

Doug vowed to serve the paper with a notice of libel, but never did.

 

[Fishbone Jones]

Well, unlike many here. I'm willing to give him a chance. Some people thrive and blossum under pressure.

And really, just for a moment, you think he's actually worse than wynne and the liebrals?

Besides, your not voting for him unless your in his riding. You vote for the person in your own riding. Do you consider them morons also because of their party leader?Your local rep is the person that represents YOU in parliament. Not Ford.

And if he wins, it is because of the will of the majority, just like the leadership race.

And if he's in the majority, his naysayers are a minority voice, not in tune with the masses.

We need Toronto and I don't think Elliot could have delivered. Just my opinion.

I see our new favourite phrase is 'bumper sticker this and that". Since when does having a bumper sticker make you a moron or extreme right or left?

 

[Remius]

This sums it up nicely.

http://www.macleans.ca/politics/will-doug-fords-victory-be-a-lifeline-to-wynnes-liberals/

 

[Fishbone Jones]

This sums it up nicely.

http://www.macleans.ca/politics/will-doug-fords-victory-be-a-lifeline-to-wynnes-liberals/

Biased news articles do not a true synopsis make. I think I just channeled Yoda.

The OPINIONS of journalists are just that. Their opinion. No better than yours or mine.

Editorial OPINIONS are the purvue of the media owner. More elitist opinion.

I'll form my own opinions, without the MSM. They can't be trusted anymore.

 

[pbi]

Well, unlike many here. I'm willing to give him a chance. Some people thrive and blossum under pressure.

And really, just for a moment, you think he's actually worse than wynne and the liebrals?

Besides, your not voting for him unless your in his riding. You vote for the person in your own riding. Do you consider them morons also because of their party leader?Your local rep is the person that represents YOU in parliament. Not Ford.

And if he wins, it is because of the will of the majority, just like the leadership race.

And if he's in the majority, his naysayers are a minority voice, not in tune with the masses.

We need Toronto and I don't think Elliot could have delivered. Just my opinion.

I see our new favourite phrase is 'bumper sticker this and that". Since when does having a bumper sticker make you a moron or extreme right or left?

Well...he might take it with a plurality, given our first past the post system and the fact that there are three parties of consequence in the running. As we often hear levelled against the Trudeau Liberals, they "won" but most votes were not cast for them. But then FPTP is what we've always had.

On the "bumper sticker" thing, I may have been the guilty party in introducing that phrase in this discourse. What I meant by it is not a literal reference to whether or not people put bumper stickers on their cars. Lots of people have done that, me included: that's isn't the point.

What I mean is more figurative, and I use it more as a verb (since we can make up words these days... ;D). To "bumper-sticker" someone. I use it to mean the practice of immediately slamming a person into a "box" or "stereotype" based on what you think they "must" believe. This allows us to then stop listening to what the person may actually be saying, or what other range of beliefs they may hold. For example: "All liberals believe XYZ" or "All conservatives think ABC". It's intellectual laziness, but it's very easy and very attractive. It's great for rallying the troops, or shouting people down. It doesn't do anything for finding an intelligent, reasonable and practical solution to anything important. It divides society rather finding common ground for solutions.

I think it's worth noting that it's a favourite tactic of both "Right" and "Left", because it works equally well. I've probably been guilty of using it myself.

 

[Fishbone Jones]

"All conservatives think ABC".

I know what you were trying to say. It just didn't come out that way when I read it. :rofl:

 

[Altair]

Biased news articles do not a true synopsis make. I think I just channeled Yoda.

The OPINIONS of journalists are just that. Their opinion. No better than yours or mine.

Editorial OPINIONS are the purvue of the media owner. More elitist opinion.

I'll form my own opinions, without the MSM. They can't be trusted anymore.

Now this is lazy.

It is an opinion, true enough. But rather than discuss what you believe to be true or false,  you say its MSM and as such,  not worthy of discussion.

I don't think remius posted that as the end all on the subject,  just a point of view by someone in the press.

One can agree or disagree but to dismiss it out of hand...

 

[Remius]

Maclean’s is hardly a left leaning publication.

The article echoes the concern some of us have mentioned here.

The Liberals are laughing.  Right now they have the candidate they wanted to face. That isn’t opinion, it is a fact.

 

[Bird_Gunner45]

Good point.  The election will have an element of keeping Ford out rather than effectively replacing the Liberals.  Well done Ontario PCs.    :tsktsk:

Ultimately, the election will be won in Toronto, Ottawa, Windsor, K-W, and the Niagara Region. Of 124 provincial seats, 40-50 are in the GTA (depending on how you view the GTA), 5 in K-W/Guelph, 9 in Ottawa, 3 in Windsor, and 4 in London for a total of 71/124 seats being in major southern ontario urban centres. Northern Ontario from Simcoe up has 12 by comparison. Assuming that the PC can win a plurality of the rural seats (say, 30 of 50), the challenge for them then is to take a minimum of 32-35 urban seats. Inevitably, the election will be won or lost in Toronto, so the question becomes if Doug Ford can carry 33% as a minimum of seats in the GTA. I would argue then that the election will be won or lost in the suburbs of Toronto. If Ford can stay on message and focus on Wynne's record than he will accomplish this. If he starts going into, or falls into, a debate on same-sex marriage or abortion or some such socially conservative issue that doesn't play well in the GTA than I believe he will lose. I think that's the fear with Doug- that he can be tricked into saying something stupid a la the "my wife is Jewish" debacle during his mayorial run. The PC needs a competent leader to just drive the ship into the election victory harbour as the Liberals have made it past their best before date. They need to hope that Doug doesn't hit rocks on his way in.

 

[jollyjacktar]

Maclean’s is hardly a left leaning publication.

The article echoes the concern some of us have mentioned here.

The Liberals are laughing.  Right now they have the candidate they wanted to face. That isn’t opinion, it is a fact.

I have to agree, as an outsider looking in.  I fear he will cause serious vote splitting and let Wynn sneak back in.  She must be in absolute shock at this twist in fate to her advantage.  Which will be a tragedy for ON and the rest of us.

 

[Remius]

Ultimately, the election will be won in Toronto, Ottawa, Windsor, K-W, and the Niagara Region. Of 124 provincial seats, 40-50 are in the GTA (depending on how you view the GTA), 5 in K-W/Guelph, 9 in Ottawa, 3 in Windsor, and 4 in London for a total of 71/124 seats being in major southern ontario urban centres. Northern Ontario from Simcoe up has 12 by comparison. Assuming that the PC can win a plurality of the rural seats (say, 30 of 50), the challenge for them then is to take a minimum of 32-35 urban seats. Inevitably, the election will be won or lost in Toronto, so the question becomes if Doug Ford can carry 33% as a minimum of seats in the GTA. I would argue then that the election will be won or lost in the suburbs of Toronto. If Ford can stay on message and focus on Wynne's record than he will accomplish this. If he starts going into, or falls into, a debate on same-sex marriage or abortion or some such socially conservative issue that doesn't play well in the GTA than I believe he will lose. I think that's the fear with Doug- that he can be tricked into saying something stupid a la the "my wife is Jewish" debacle during his mayorial run. The PC needs a competent leader to just drive the ship into the election victory harbour as the Liberals have made it past their best before date. They need to hope that Doug doesn't hit rocks on his way in.

Exactly.  He was pretty good during the debate and the short campaign for leadership.  I think his comments on abortion were for the party but he will be called on that.  Hopefully he can stay on message with Wynne and not get trapped.  His opponents are going to paint him as the Trump of the North but we’ll see how he handles that.

 

[mariomike]

His opponents are going to paint him as the Trump of the North but we’ll see how he handles that.

Why wait?

Absolutely Donald Trump respects women. There's millions of women that have voted for him. So all those millions of women are dumb? I don't think so.

Do I think Donald Trump can run the country a lot better and get along with other countries like Russia? Absolutely he can do a better job. He can create a stimulus. He can lower taxes.

Donald Trump's a businessman, he's a very successful businessman. I think he's a marketing genius.

Over 80% of the media can't stand Donald Trump in the US. I've never seen a more biased media in my entire life, except Rob Ford. But outside of that I have not seen a more biased media.

No one can buy Donald Trump. And everyone knows that.
http://www.azquotes.com/author/24760-Doug_Ford_Jr

 

[PPCLI Guy]

Biased news articles do not a true synopsis make. I think I just channeled Yoda.

The OPINIONS of journalists are just that. Their opinion. No better than yours or mine.

Editorial OPINIONS are the purvue of the media owner. More elitist opinion.

I'll form my own opinions, without the MSM. They can't be trusted anymore.

Where was the bias?  Where was the opinion?  Did we read the same article?

Al I could see that even slightly smelled of bias was:

"Had Elliott won, it’s possible she could have swayed some urban and suburban voters, in new ridings and elsewhere, to the Conservative camp. Ford is unlikely to have the same effect on Liberal voters."

What am I missing?

 

[Loachman]

Not my first choice, but I am not particularly troubled.

Having lived through both NDP and Liberal provincial governments, Premier Ford would have to work hard to be worse.

And governing is not a solo effort, as has already been pointed out.

www.cbc.ca/beta/news/politics/grenier-ford-toronto-pcs-1.4535313

Ontario PCs can win in Toronto with Doug Ford - and probably without him

The PCs could use the support Doug Ford had in the 2014 Toronto election. But do they need him to get it?

Analysis

Éric Grenier · Politics and polls · CBC News

February 26, 2018

"Doug Ford's pitch to Ontario Progressive Conservatives is that he can lead the party to a breakthrough in Toronto, a city that has spurned the Tories in four consecutive elections.

"It's a big claim - and he has the numbers to back it up. But if the PCs want to storm Toronto in June's provincial election, do they really face a choice between Ford and failure?

"Unlike his rivals for the PC leadership, Ford can point to his actual electoral performance to back up his claim that he can deliver in Toronto."

 

[Bird_Gunner45]

Exactly.  He was pretty good during the debate and the short campaign for leadership.  I think his comments on abortion were for the party but he will be called on that.  Hopefully he can stay on message with Wynne and not get trapped.  His opponents are going to paint him as the Trump of the North but we’ll see how he handles that.

I also think that's going to be the Liberal and NDP strategy. The Liberal path to victory likely involves taking t 50-60 of the urban seats (40-ish in Toronto, 6-7 in Ottawa, and the remainder in the other major urban centres) and hope for 10-ish rural seats throughout the province, likely in the rural areas around Barrie, Chatham, St. Thomas, etc with smaller cities. I would think that Wynne doesn't even bother going to areas like Owen Sound, northern Ontario (outside of Sudbury and Thunder Bay maybe), or Muskoka. So, inevitably, the liberals will attempt to force Ford into both making the election into socially conservative issues and away from power bills, hydro plant scandals, and debt as it's their only path to 63. Ford also has the double issue of needing the Toronto seats and keeping PC seats outside of Toronto. He can't pander to the rural ridings who will vote for him regardless of what he does- he needs to maintain a strict economic conservative message and avoid the traps that will be set. Hopefully he doesn't have too many skeletons in the closet like his brother did or else he could create a "devil that I know" situation.


The NDP dont have a path to victory outside of hoping that the Liberals and PC both implode, which is actually relatively likely.

 

[Fishbone Jones]

Ultimately, the election will be won in Toronto, Ottawa, Windsor, K-W, and the Niagara Region. Of 124 provincial seats, 40-50 are in the GTA (depending on how you view the GTA), 5 in K-W/Guelph, 9 in Ottawa, 3 in Windsor, and 4 in London for a total of 71/124 seats being in major southern ontario urban centres. Northern Ontario from Simcoe up has 12 by comparison. Assuming that the PC can win a plurality of the rural seats (say, 30 of 50), the challenge for them then is to take a minimum of 32-35 urban seats. Inevitably, the election will be won or lost in Toronto, so the question becomes if Doug Ford can carry 33% as a minimum of seats in the GTA. I would argue then that the election will be won or lost in the suburbs of Toronto. If Ford can stay on message and focus on Wynne's record than he will accomplish this. If he starts going into, or falls into, a debate on same-sex marriage or abortion or some such socially conservative issue that doesn't play well in the GTA than I believe he will lose. I think that's the fear with Doug- that he can be tricked into saying something stupid a la the "my wife is Jewish" debacle during his mayorial run. The PC needs a competent leader to just drive the ship into the election victory harbour as the Liberals have made it past their best before date. They need to hope that Doug doesn't hit rocks on his way in.

If Windsor stays true to form the PC won't have a chance in Windsor. It's a lunch bucket town with a union stranglehold. I believe the dippers from Windsor will hold their office. I certainly don't want to see that, but Windsor constantly shoots itself in the foot when it comes to provincial politics and ends up on the opposition side of the winners.