North Korea (Superthread)

[GAP]

How much of a drawdown did the US do in SK, Okinawa, and South Pacific?

 

[FredDaHead]

Re: the seismic activity

I can't find the sources just yet, but I remember reading in a few of them that given some time do analyze the data, seismologists could tell whether this was nuclear or conventional--nuclear explosions have a different seismic signature, apparently.

 

[AJFitzpatrick]

My understanding is that the only positive confirmation of a nuclear explosion is the detection of the gaseous decay products. The USAF is flying those missions as we speak.

 

[warspite]

If China wants to support NK against SK, I can't imagine why the US wouldn't immediately cease trade with China and tell them to go shop their wares in Europe.

Not sure if that's really an option. There is a heck of a lot of trade going on. True it is mostly China benefiting from the trade but the U.S just can't find a new source of McDonald's toys overnight and shut down trade. They would never get away with it, kinda like we couldn't get away with shutting down trade with the U.S.( if only on a lesser scale)

And just a question here but if N. Korea declared war on the States couldn't the U.S. just place a fleet offshore and tomahawk the N. Korean infrastructure into oblivion as a lesson about who N. Korea is dealing with?

 

[Brad Sallows]

>Yes. But so far South Korea has displayed a policy of "I don't want to die", which has certain amount of logic and a generally universal appeal to it.

Ultimately that is a SK problem, not a US problem.

If the US pushes NK, then NK is going to have to find a way to push back against the US.  They don't share a land border, so what does that leave?

 

[warspite]

If the US pushes NK, then NK is going to have to find a way to push back against the US.  They don't share a land border, so what does that leave?

China? ???

 

[Brad Sallows]

>They would never get away with it, kinda like we couldn't get away with shutting down trade with the U.S.( if only on a lesser scale)

Never get away with it?  Why not?  Cheap housewares and other garage sale fodder are not at the top of the list of national interests.

 

[warrickdll]

Agreed. Similar to Iraq's Scudding of Israel.

From a Canadian perspective - we should be ensuring that the West Coast is at least as equipped as the East Coast in terms of Navy, Air Force, SCTF, etc.

Also time for a renewed appreciation for ASW and missile defence.


Edit: Added Missile Defence

 

[geo]

My problem with all of this is that if gives some other countries all sorts of wacky ideas.

Iran must be marveling at how everyone is standing up and paying attention to NK without taking military steps against them................  now try to discourage Iran from developing it's nuclear capacity.

Ain't going to happen.

 

[warspite]

>They would never get away with it, kinda like we couldn't get away with shutting down trade with the U.S.( if only on a lesser scale)

Never get away with it?  Why not?  Cheap housewares and other garage sale fodder are not at the top of the list of national interests.

http://stat.wto.org/CountryProfile/WSDBCountryPFView.aspx?Language=E&Country=CN,US
The U.S as of 2004 gets 13.8% of it's imports from China. That's a lot of garage sale fodder. ;D
Why in fact it's $210,521,208,000 dollars worth of garage sale fodder.

 

[warrickdll]

Nuke/conventional/earthquake/toilet flushing... whatever it was doesn't really matter anymore because it has now revealed that North Korea (and by extension - Iran) has nothing to fear if it creates a nuclear arsenal.

Now the US designation of Axis of Evil is nothing more than an FYI, and leaves their Iraq policy open to complete repudiation. If Iran were to conduct a test tomorrow, the only consequence would be akin to an embargo on ipods.


The best move for the US is a mass deployment into the area. They don't even have to imply that they will attack North Korea - the US could simply move their forces to Taiwan and perhaps muse loudly about recognizing Taiwan as an independent nation. Then let China make the hard choices.

 

[tomahawk6]

The US is presently working with the ROK's to restructure the command organization.Essentially the US is going to turn over command of ROK ground force to the ROK's.They will remain under UN/CFC command. We will maintain 1 brigade combat team in country with support units. The 7th Fleet and the Air Force provide assets that the Koreans lack.

The North Koreans can be hurt in several ways. Japan can prevent North Koreans living in Japan from sending money back home. The US can mount an interdiction operation targeting shipping leaving North Korean ports.
Their real achilles heal is China. If China stops sending fuel and food into North Korea then they will either cave or do something crazy like attack the south. We cannot fail to act because of their threats, when we do that they win.

 

[JBP]

I am seeing what you folks are saying about making a deployment/buildup of troops in SK, but I really don't think that would be a good move at this point because what happens every time the USA puts some boots on the ground in any significant numbers anywhere on the map? - Battle. If the US was to deploy let's say, 50,000 troops to the region ontop of whats there, I think NK would immediately attack the South and try to obliterate whatever land forces would be there, because they would see that as a troop buildup precipitating an invasion/attack. Doesn't take a rocket scientist to see that might not be a good idea. We DO have to respond, but we shouldn't instigate a retaliatory move if we can avoid it.

Just my thoughts! Only worth about 1/2 a cent sometimes. =)

 

[GMan87]

Damned if you do, damned if you don't

For Military Action:
- stops threat of North Korea sending a nuke towards Japan/South Korea
- stops threat of NK selling nukes to "highest bidder"
- their technology is currently not advanced enough to utilize the nukes, get them now before its too late
- send the right message to Iran, etc.
- eliminate the need for other Asian countries (as peaceful as they may be) to go nuclear
- NK is already heavily sanctioned and the sanctions mostly hurt the poor, not the people at the top
- bring some democracy to the people of NK (would likely go far better than Iraq)

Against Military Action:
- refugees pour into China and SK
- northern SK will likely take damage from NK
- West's militaries stretched too thin already. 
- Land/Sea attack must be followed by land invasion to prevent NK from taking a chunk out of their neighbours
- China will not like the fall of communism in NK
- will cost many casualties, as NK does have a large army
- will have another country we have to "rebuild"

Really, neither option works. Either you take costly military actions and fuel tensions with China or say to the rest of the world "go ahead, devleop nukes, we'll just give you a slap on the wrist" and allow NK to get their program to a point where we have to say "too late to do anything without them nuking us". I think the best option is to get into tough negotiations backed by sanctions. However, if negotiations fail, it will become a question of "military attack now" vs. "live with a nuclear NK". Wait too long and a military attack will not be an option. 

 

[tomahawk6]

The good news for us is that the test was a fizzle, which exposes Kim's claims that he has nuclear weapons. If he were confident he had a working device he would have done an above ground test.

 

[Edward Campbell]

China? ???

I think we need to keep a couple of key factors in mind:

• This is more than just a NK vs. USA problem, it is an Asian problem;

• America does not have sufficient conventional force – even without Iraq – to play a decisive role in Asia, and India is not, yet, ready to bring its potentially considerable power to bear, in any cause – much less to help the US in East Asia;

• NK is China’s client.

Most important: China has just suffered a huge loss of face.  ’Face’ is hugely important in Asia.  China must have redress for this.  I suspect that the prevailing emotion in the Central Committee is cold fury; I think the Chinese must have invented the maxim: don’t get mad, get even.

The question is: how?

Forget US warships intercepting vessels near to Chinese waters – China is growing its power and influence and sharing it with the UASA would be contrary to China’s vital interests and China, like America, is promoting and protecting its own vital interests.

Forget about any food/fuel sanctions.  The Chinese central government believes that it has the Mandate of the People (as opposed to other dynasties which believed they had the ‘Mandate of Heaven’ – and heaven, Chinese heaven, is a concept which occupies years of study) and the Chinese people are not interested in causing millions more deaths by starvation and exposure amongst the Koreans.

Forget about any significant action by the six or the UNSC.  China needs to solve this problem without outside interference – this is Asia and, according to many, many Chinese, Asia needs to be China’s sphere of influence.  The Chinese actively support President Bush’s resolve to avoid direct, bilateral NK/USA discussions – an ineffective group of six is far, far preferable.

Regime change is the most likely answer,

It is not simple.  China does have leverage, of course, but it tends towards the massive, sledgehammer type of leverage – not what the Chinese want to use.  They do not want to impose any additional hardship on the Koreans; they do not want millions of Korean refugees; they really, really do not want a regional war.  They want a subservient, peaceful, prosperous North Korean client state – even if it is (loosely) tied to South Korea.  The need is to dispose of Kim Jong Il without creating unmanageable turmoil.  Only the NK military can assume power and manage an acceptable, to the Chinese, transition from one dictatorship to another.  The elder Kim, in the ‘50s, structured the NK state and military along Russian/Chinese revolutionary lines – there is no ‘top dog’, no 2I/C as it were; if there were Kim Jong Il would be dead and buried.  The top level’s authority is fragmented and pits any and every one ‘leader’ against all the others.  None of the leaders has his hands on enough ‘levers of power’ to take control of enough of the security apparatus to guarantee a successful coup.  It is a difficult conundrum, especially for the Chinese.

Difficult is not impossible and I suspect that senior Chinese generals are – as I think they have been for years – in close contact with all of the top tier leaders in NK, trying to identify coalitions which can, with Chinese support, seize power, kill Kim, and forge new security ties with China – all without surrendering their nuclear weapons.

The Chinese have little or no interest, that I can see, in making East Asia safer or friendlier for America.  It does have a great interest in preserving the peace in East Asia, especially for South Korea which invests heavily in China.  It does have a huge interest in being seen to have resolved, single-handedly, a significant regional crisis – further marginalizing America, Japan and Russia in the process.  It has a massive interest in restoring its face after NK’s insult.

I suspect that we will see the coup, within about a year – while vengeance is a dish best served cold it cannot be too cold.  Additionally, I suspect that China will stop Kim Jong Il from sharing his technology with some of America’s enemies – but this is a dangerous game because China sees itself as being surrounded, including by dangerous Muslim imperialist radicals in Central Asia.  It will not wish to allow anything which aids the Islamist* cause in West/Central Asia.

----------

* There’s that word again.  It means a whole paragraph of characterizations of radical, Arab (Persian, too?) cultural and fundamentalist Muslim religious movements but Islamist will have to do, for now.

 

[Colin Parkinson]

I think North Korea is a hollow shell.  Kim's saber rattling is intended, I believe, to keep everyone off balance and to extort more aid from China and the West.  Whether he's over-stepped himself -- only time will tell.

Armies are more than mere numbers.  NK is a humanitarian disaster, getting worse by the day.  The deteriorating situation in the countryside and cities has to have an effect on the military, no matter how draconian the regime.

NK generals may be eating well, but how about the rank-and-file?  If the combat troops are getting adequate rations, what about the mechanics and other technicians needed to keep any military force in motion?  Logistically, how much combat could the NK forces sustain before they ran out of supplies?

It is probably impossible for anyone outside North Korea to imagine the extent of the horror there.  The entire country is slowly becoming a vast, open-air tomb.

Napolean is supposed to have said: "Never forget the enemy marches through the same mud." 

The mud, figuratively speaking, is becoming neck-deep on the NK side. 

In some ways, I hope I'm wrong, but I fear that I am not.

Jim

Jim I think you are bang on, NK is dependent on aid from other countries, the refusal to give aid or trade with them is likely to be the death sentence of the regime. We should turn our backs on them. Meanwhile China should maintain contact with NK's  military in order to convince them that if the Great Leader had an accident, it might be the best thing for the country.

 

[Trinity]

+1 Edward

 

[FGH_Recce_DJ]

Yes but remember, it was Saddam, not Kim Jong that had the weapons of mass destruction, way to drop the ball Bush, way to drop the ball, If anyone needs me i'll be building my fallout shelter........

 

[GAP]

South Korea does not pose a threat to China. In fact, as you noted, it invests heavily in Chinese infrastructure. By reuniting the two countries, China is seen as a benefactor that can make things happen when America couldn't. It lessens the American strength in the area and brings the Korea's under the Chinese umbrella if only for trade and regional influence.