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NORAD, Russian bombers, cruise missiles and nuclear weapons

Jungle

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Oldgateboatdriver said:
That's why (1) NORAD will treat any launch of Kh-101 or Kh-102 at North America as a first nuclear strike and (2) will retaliate "in force" accordingly. As it is MAD we are talking about, the actual fighter jets of NORAD don't matter as much for that specific threat (Russian bombers).

NORAD has a strictly defensive mandate, and no means to retaliate.

The NORAD missions are the following:

In close collaboration with homeland defense, security, and law enforcement partners, prevent air attacks against North America, safeguard the sovereign airspaces of the United States and Canada by responding to unknown, unwanted, and unauthorized air activity approaching and operating within these airspaces, and provide aerospace and maritime warning for North America.

USNORTHCOM, on the other hand, has access to USSTRATCOM ressources, but these can be employed without consulting Canadian authorities. Maybe if we joined missile defence, we would have a say...
 

Jungle

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Looks like we may finally join:

http://news.nationalpost.com/full-comment/wanting-to-ditch-reputation-as-natos-cheap-date-liberals-looking-at-ballistic-missile-defence-sources

The joint statement from the two leaders said both countries want to “modernize and broaden our NORAD partnership”, as well as relations in cyber and space.

As the Senate defence committee found in its report on BMD two years ago, the decision not to participate has harmed Canada’s position in the continental defence organization, NORAD. The decision on when, where and whether to intercept an incoming missile is not made under the NORAD structure but, rather, by the U.S. alone under its domestic defence body, United States Northern Command. If a missile is heading towards Calgary, the Canadian military representative at NORAD has to leave the room while those decisions are made.

As the committee said in its unanimous recommendation to partner with the U.S. on BMD: “Canada cannot simply assume that all its territory will be protected by default under the existing U.S. BMD system.”

Expert testimony from Lt. Gen. Alain Parent said the threat from North Korea, Iran and others is real. The committee concluded it’s time Canada join 27 other nations, including NATO partners, Australia, Japan and South Korea in BMD, allowing Canadian officials to be at the table when decisions are made.
 

MarkOttawa

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North Korean ICBMs not only thing on RCAF NORAD deputy commander's mind--growing Russian cruise missile threat (possible nuked), both ALCM and SLCM (read Russia):

NORAD commander calls for modernization amid North Korea tensions

The top Canadian officer at the North American Aerospace Defence Command says the system needs to evolve to meet modern threats.

Speaking at the Banff Global Business Forum on Thursday, Lt.-Gen. Pierre St-Amand said North America is facing more threats as the capabilities of nations and extremists increase.

“In many ways, we feel that because of these new capabilities – long-range cruise missiles, for example, that can be air-launched, and launched from the maritime domain – we feel that North America is a bit less secure than it was a short time ago [emphasis added].”

He said the time has come to evolve for the future as NORAD approaches its 60th anniversary.

“We have been able to evolve throughout those 59 years, but we are challenging now to think about a way to evolve once again into the future,” said St-Amand.

“It is a right time for us to make our home team better …at the end of the day, for the security of the homelands, we are the catcher’s mit if something were to go wrong.” St-Amand’s comments come a week after he told the House of Commons defence committee looking into North Korean threats that U.S. policy is not to defend Canada with its missile defence system...
https://globalnews.ca/news/3762303/norad-commander-modernization-north-korea/

From 2016:

NORAD and Russian Cruise Nukes: “de-escalation”? Part 2
https://cgai3ds.wordpress.com/2016/06/30/mark-collins-norad-and-russian-cruise-nukes-de-escalation-part-2/

Mark
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MarkOttawa

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But does Russia have a first use of nukes for "de-escalation" doctrine? Might precision conventional ALCM and SLCM strikes against counterforce targets in North America be part of response to a crisis?  Start of a serious analysis:

The Myth of Russia’s Lowered Nuclear Threshold

As Russia’s Zapad 2017 strategic exercise finishes, Russia-watchers and nuclear hawks will be looking for evidence of Russia’s alleged “lowered nuclear threshold”. This lowered threshold has become a key concern in recent years for Western policymakers watching Russia’s active military signaling. The official way of expressing this concern is to say that nuclear-armed regional adversaries should not think they “can escalate their way out of failed conventional aggression.” That is, a regional adversary (such as Russia) will not get away with conventional aggression against U.S. allies (such as the Baltic countries) by threatening to use or using nuclear weapons.

The evidence provided for why Russia might use nuclear weapons early in a conflict falls into three categories. First, analysts point to the alleged nuclear “escalate-to-deescalate” doctrine, which entails the early use of nuclear weapons in conflict to try and shock the adversary into submission. Second, they point to Russia’s large tactical nuclear weapons arsenal, ideal for early and limited nuclear strikes. Third, some argue that NATO’s inability to defend the Baltics along with Russia’s improved military capabilities provide a tempting opportunity to attempt nuclear blackmail against the alliance. Russia could quickly seize and secure key areas in the region, and consolidate her gains by threatening nuclear retaliation if NATO moves to retake the seized territories. Ideally (so goes the theory of nuclear de-escalation, anyway) this conundrum would force a weak-stomached adversary to cut its losses and sue for peace rather than risk large-scale nuclear confrontation.

Yet the evidence for a lowered Russian nuclear threshold is getting weaker by the day...

Kristin Ven Bruusgaard is a Stanton Nuclear Security Fellow at CISAC, Stanford University and a Ph.D. student at King’s College London.
https://warontherocks.com/2017/09/the-myth-of-russias-lowered-nuclear-threshold/

Mark
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MarkOttawa

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Then there are Russian subs and cruise missiles, Syria section:
A Russian submarine’s recent antics have revived a Cold War fear
A TENSE chase through the Mediterranean has revealed how rattled the US and NATO were by a cheeky Russian ploy.

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http://www.news.com.au/technology/a-russian-submarines-recent-antics-have-revived-a-cold-war-fear/news-story/4dfdc08d92548f26875fd81c36006ac0

2016:

USN “Admiral Warns: Russian Subs Waging Cold War-Style ‘Battle of the Atlantic’”–and RCN?
https://cgai3ds.wordpress.com/2016/06/03/mark-collins-usn-admiral-warns-russian-subs-waging-cold-war-style-battle-of-the-atlantic-and-rcn/

Mark
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MarkOttawa

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US pushing us to put real money into upgrading North Warning System:
Canada Awards Contracts In Support of Arctic Surveillance

The Department of National Defence is investing in defence research and development to produce innovative solutions to surveillance challenges facing the Canadian Armed Forces’ (CAF), particularly in Canada’s North.

The Department of National Defence, through Public Services and Procurement Canada, has awarded two contracts to Raytheon Canada Limited and the University of Toronto Institute for Aerospace Studies’ Space Flight Lab (UTIAS SFL) under the All Domain Situational Awareness (ADSA) Science & Technology (S&T) Program for a total of $46.2 million.

Raytheon Canada Limited has been awarded a contract for $31.2 million for the construction of transmit and receive electronics for a study of over-the-horizon radar detection at long range [emphasis added]. A contract for $15 million has also been awarded to UTIAS SFL for the development of a prototype of a multipurpose microsatellite equipped with state-of-the-art sensor technology for air and maritime surveillance.

As outlined in our defence policy Strong, Secure, Engaged, the ability to conduct leading-edge research and development in satellite and radar technologies plays a critical role in supporting the CAFs capabilities, particularly in remote locations such as Canada’s Arctic.

Surveillance solutions such as these improve our access to accurate and timely information, enabling the CAF and our partners to better collect, understand and disseminate information and intelligence, and support our ability to succeed on operations at home or abroad. These systems will support our government’s ability to exercise sovereignty in the North, and provide a greater awareness of safety and security issues, as well as transportation and commercial activity in Canada’s Arctic. In addition, solutions achieved under the ADSA program will contribute to joint efforts between Canada and the United States to modernize elements of the North American Aerospace Defense Command (NORAD) [emphasis added].

“Our government understands that science and innovation are crucial in solving some of our most complex defence and security challenges. Through these contracts, the Department of National Defence is taking the next step to solving our surveillance challenges in the Arctic. We are proud to be partnering with Raytheon Canada and the Space Flight Laboratory to produce innovative solutions that will help to protect Canada’s North.” The Honourable Harjit S. Sajjan, Minister of National Defence

ADDITIONAL INFO

• The UTIAS SFL microsatellites being developed will allow for quick and timely detection and identification of surface or airborne targets. This is expected to improve the reliability of the detection and identification performance, leading to improved situational awareness for the CAF and our partners. Upon successful completion and testing of the prototype, two additional microsatellites will be built to create a small formation. These will then be launched for demonstration and testing.

• The primary objective of the Raytheon project is to demonstrate the feasibility of sky-wave radar technology for the detection of air targets at all altitudes beyond the radar's horizon. This involves reflecting signals off of the ionosphere and back to a receiving station located beyond the line of site. Once operational, the system will be used in conjunction with other systems to further understand the effect of the Aurora Borealis on target detection beyond the horizon.

• The ADSA S&T Program aims to leverage innovative science & technology expertise from other government departments, academia, industry and allies, to identify, assess and validate technologies in support of air and maritime surveillance, particularly in the North.

• Through a five-year investment of $133M through to 2020, the ADSA S&T Program is supporting the development of options for enhanced domain awareness of air, maritime surface and sub-surface approaches to Canada, in particular those in the Arctic.

• National Defence’s science and technology organization, Defence Research and Development Canada (DRDC), is the national leader in defence and security S&T. DRDC provides the defence S&T community, the Canadian Armed Forces and other government departments, as well as the public safety and security communities, with the knowledge and technology advantage needed to defend and protect Canada’s interests at home and abroad.
http://www.canadiandefencereview.com/news?news/2620

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MarkOttawa

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USAF general at top on NORTHCOM/NORAD this time:

Air Force Gen. VanHerck Nominated to Serve as Next NORTHCOM/NORAD Commander

Air Force Lt. Gen. Glen VanHerck was nominated to serve as the next commander of U.S. Northern Command (NORTHCOM) and North American Aerospace Defense Command (NORAD).

VanHerck currently serves as the director of the Joint Staff at the Pentagon. He is a fighter and bomber pilot and previously served as commander of U.S. Air Force Warfare Center and operations director of Air Force Global Strike Command.

Adm. Chris Grady, commander of U.S. Fleet Forces Command, was under consideration to serve as the next NORTHCOM commander, several sources had told USNI News. Grady’s job commanding Fleet Forces is also dual-hatted as U.S. Naval Forces Northern Command, making him the naval component commander for operations happening within NORTHCOM’s area of operations.

Grady is expected to hand command of Fleet Forces over to Vice Adm. Andrew Lewis, the current U.S. 2nd Fleet Command commander, this fall. Lewis’ official nomination for that job has not yet been made by the Navy but is expected soon, USNI News understands. Lewis’ relief, Director of Operations for U.S. Indo-Pacific Command Rear Adm. Stephen Koehler, has already been confirmed to take over 2nd Fleet.

Two Navy spokespeople reached by USNI News were unaware what happened to Grady’s potential NORTHCOM nomination or what the admiral might do next – move on to another position or retire from the Navy.

Since NORTHCOM was created in 2002 following the Sept. 11, 2011 terror attacks, it has had eight commanders: four Air Force generals, three Navy admirals and one Army general. If VanHerck is confirmed by the Senate and takes command, NORTHCOM will remain under Air Force leadership, as it has been since Adm. Bill Gortney turned over command to Air Force Gen. Lori Robinson in May 2016.
https://news.usni.org/2020/07/06/air-force-gen-vanherck-nominated-to-serve-as-next-northcom-norad-commander

Mark
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CBH99

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MarkOttawa said:
US pushing us to put real money into upgrading North Warning System:
Mark
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I realize this post is absurdly outdated, BUT... I think my question is still relevant.

In regards to being able to monitor the north, can satellites do it all?



With the constellation of satellites already monitoring the north, is a new "DEW" line of sorts necessary?  Or can we monitor air traffic and ship traffic sufficiently using only satellite?
 

Cronicbny

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CBH99 said:
I realize this post is absurdly outdated, BUT... I think my question is still relevant.

In regards to being able to monitor the north, can satellites do it all?



With the constellation of satellites already monitoring the north, is a new "DEW" line of sorts necessary?  Or can we monitor air traffic and ship traffic sufficiently using only satellite?

No - RADAR is still required to detect aircraft and also missiles over the northern reaches.
 

Edward Campbell

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CBH99 said:
I realize this post is absurdly outdated, BUT... I think my question is still relevant.

In regards to being able to monitor the north, can satellites do it all?

With the constellation of satellites already monitoring the north, is a new "DEW" line of sorts necessary?  Or can we monitor air traffic and ship traffic sufficiently using only satellite?
'


IN ARDUA NITOR is pretty much correct. It would take several constellations of specialized satellites, some in geostationary orbit but more in polar and eliptical (highly inclined) and low earth orbits to do the job. A mix of space and terrestrial based senors is the better choice. We, Canada, have too few space based assets, in my opinion.
 

Weinie

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And one wonders why the US has not been more emphatic in their quest to have DEW line-like capabilities replicated, especially in the North. Methinks that they have it covered, in spades, and that it is not a big concern anymore ;).
 
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