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Mission Success Probability

PuckChaser

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I've had a HV mission unlocked for about 5 levels. Every item required is at level 5 or higher. The mission proficiency itself is at level 3. However, the success level has only moved from 45% to 55% in those 5 levels. Every other HV mission I've unlocked has had a lot larger increase in probability over the same span of time. The insurgency is locked down, and I've even opened up 2 further AORs since getting access to the HV mission.

Am I missing something here? Or is this mission just supposed to be super hard?
 

Mike Bobbitt

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Which Mission is it? Might be time for me to delineate the probability formula... Just need to have a few mins to lay it all out.
 

Mike Bobbitt

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OK, so here's the convoluted formula...

Each mission has a base difficulty rating. That's what you start at. PC, your mission has a base difficulty rating of 90. That's high. The base difficulty is subtracted from 100 to give you a starting point. In this case, 100% success - 90% = 10% chance of success.

From there, we add 2 times your rank, minus the Mission rank. So if you are at Rank 30, and the mission was unlocked at rank 25, you automatically get 2 * 5 = +10% chance. When you first unlock a mission, this value is set to zero, and goes up by 2 for every subsequent promotion.

Next, we add your SA/10. So for every 10 points you throw on SA, your chances of success go up by 1%... for every mission out there.

Following that, we add 1% for every Proficiency level on each piece of required equipment. So if you had Proficiency levels of 2, 5 and 4 for a mission, that gives you a 11% bonus.

Finally, we adjust things... any value below 5% chance is brought up to 5%, to give you a fighting chance. Likewise, any chance above 95% is dropped down to 95%, 'cause you know... Murphy and all.

Now... as an Officer, it all ends there, but if you're an NCO, you get an automatic +10% chance, plus your "cap" moves up from 95% to 98%.

And that's it!
 

PuckChaser

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Just the base difficulty makes sense why the probability hasn't gone up, thanks for the formula, Mike!
 

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Hi Mike, I was wondering about the consecutive successful missions medals. I just achieved 50 but the next step is 100. If officers can only get to 95% success rate then theoretically it is impossible to get, no?

If thats the case maybe make the medal 100 consecutive missions with an average higher than 90%.
 

PuckChaser

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Level 4: Where's That Horseshoe?
250 Consecutive Successful Missions
Incentive: +80 Max Combat Readiness for 4 days (500)
130 / 250 (52%)

Furthest I got, haven't been able to get there. Once I'm a higher level I might try for it, but not that big a deal now.
 

Mike Bobbitt

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Somebody out there has a 269 mission success streak, so it is possible. :) Maybe not very likely for Officers, but then they get 20% more Merit Points which will help them achieve other incentives over NCOs.
 

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:eek: 269?? 

My luck and 'said' person above appear to have different amount of luck lol  ;)  I failed "travel to Afghanistan" twice in a row (Bad weather I assume).
 
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