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Whether they will actually get them is another story.
Israel Retains Interest in F-22EX Fighters
30-Mar-2009 10:20 EDT
In April 2007, Flight International reported that Israel had approached the USA about acquiring F-22 stealth fighters, as concern mounted about new threats to the IAF’s regional air superiority from proposed sales of advanced US weapons to the Gulf states, and Israeli assessments of a growing threat from Iran. Sources say that the issue was raised during a trip by US defense secretary Robert Gates to Israel, though Gates replied with briefings designed to encourage Israel to accept the F-35 instead.
Current Israeli Air Force plans call for F-35s to replace retiring F-16s, a request that has been approved by the State Department. The F-22 request is likely to face tougher sledding, for a number of reasons. Nevertheless, Israel may be about to revive it, in the wake of sticker shock over the F-35A’s price tag, and concerns about delivery dates. Israel will be one of several countries (Australia, Israel, Japan, to some extent South Korea) who will be following upcoming Congressional deliberations over lifting the F-22’s export ban, in order to keep the production line alive with a downgraded variant…
Back in 2007, the prospect of sending a signal to Iran, and the potential for presenting Congress with a package deal that neutralizes two major lobbies at once by arming both the Gulf States and Israel with more advanced weapons, were seen as factors in the deal’s favor. So was US-Israeli cooperation in sensitive areas like short-range missile/rocket defenses and ballistic missile defense.
In the end, it made no difference.
Japan is also known to have asked about an F-22 export version, and a wide spectrum of opinion in Australia (including the now-governing Labor Party) is pushing for an F-22EX request of their own. While unrelated, each request from an important ally does raise both the pressure to create an F-22EX version, and the perceived market & benefits from doing so.
The new administration has political considerations of its own to deal with as it sorts through these requests, with conflicting tendencies coming from within the Democratic party itself on issues ranging from cooperation with allies to America’s relationship with Israel.
The Obama administration must also consider domestic issues related to the F-22’s production chain, which will begin shutting down in 2009 unless new orders are placed. F-22EX orders from Japan, Israel, and possibly Australia would extend that date by at least 3 years, at which point much more would be known about the F-35’s performance and final costs.
The military-organizational side of this equation also matters. Japan and Australia currently enjoy excellent relations with the US security establishment. Japan is working with the USA on missile defense projects, and Australian forces serve beside American troops on the war’s front lines.
In Israel’s case, however, its military sales to China continued even after US-Chinese relations cooled. This has resulted in lasting damage to its relations within the US security establishment, whose anger eventually boiled over into exclusion from the F-35 program. An agreement covering Israeli arms export restrictions got the exclusion lifted – albeit on a conditional basis that speaks eloquently to the state of trust within the relationship.
Israel’s political strength in the USA, and Iran’s proxy wars and threats to wipe out the Jewish state, add impetus on the positive side of the scale. So does the USAF’s interest in keeping the F-22 production line open. Unfortunately for Israel, very high levels of trust are an absolute precondition for sales of an F-22 variant.
The current situation, and Japan’s strong request, make approval of an F-22EX version (likely without source code, with software lock-outs, and with a downgraded AESA radar like Raytheon’s APG-63v3 or Northrop’s SABR) a possibility for Israel. It is by no means a certainty, however.
Updates and Developments
March 29/08: The Jerusalem Post reports that:
“The [Israeli] Defense Ministry will closely follow discussions in Congress next month over the United States’ 2010 fiscal defense budget amid growing speculation that a ban on foreign sales of the stealth F-22 fighter jet may be lifted to keep the threatened production line alive…. “If this happens we will definitely want to review the possibility of purchasing the F-22,” explained a top military source. “In order to have strong deterrence and to win a conflict we need to have the best aircraft that exists.”
Speculation is that Israel would seek to order F-22As immediately, then wait until later in the F-35’s production cycle, when the plane will be cheaper to buy, fully tested, and more technically mature.
Nov 10/08: Flight International reports that sticker shock over the proposed $200 million per plane price of F-35As, and a need for rapid delivery, may push Israel to renew its F-22EX request with the new Obama administration.
“This aircraft can be delivered in two years if the deal is approved [DID: 2011, vs. 2012-14 for F-35s], and that is very important for the security of Israel,” comments one Israeli source.”
Sept 26/08: the US Defense Security Cooperation Agency announces [PDF] Israel official request to buy an initial 25 F-35A Joint Strike Fighters, with an option to purchase at a later date an additional 50 F-35A or F-35B Short Take-Off and Vertical Landing (STOVL) aircraft. The estimated cost is $15.2 billion if all options are exercised, or about $200 million per plane as the in-service cost. Read “Israel Plans to Buy F-35s” for more.
