Is the US on the brink of a humiliating defeat in Afghanistan?

[dapaterson]

I mistook your reference. I thought you implied indiscriminate bombing of the country as a whole which doesn't serve a purpose. Wiping out a city that's a hotbed for the enemy I do agree with, or with your examples, when it's time to stop dicking around and and finish the fight.

So, by that logic, the Taliban could destroy Pembroke, since we send troops from 2 CMBG to fight them.

 

[Jarnhamar]

So, by that logic, the Taliban could destroy Pembroke, since we send troops from 2 CMBG to fight them.

Do you think the Taliban would destroy Pembroke if they had the chance?  Regardless of it's proximity to 2CMBG?

 

[Jarnhamar]

Before I get a pile on and start having people proving my argument is wrong because I didn't use spell check all I'm saying is this;

The topic was of this thread was Is the US on the brink of a humiliating defeat in Afghanistan?

I said no because the Taliban have indicated fairly well that they have no objections to butchering us. Us "Infidels" existing offends them and their religious doctrine.  I fully believe that if given the chance and resources they would happily come over here and try to shit in our cereal (then cut our heads off and dance around).  To me, every day that all this violence is going on in Afghanistan and not North America is a victory.

One series of attacks (DC sniper) paralyzed the eastern seaboard. Our society government and citizens aren't prepared to deal with terror attacks on our soil and I'll bet my picture of me kissing Emma Watson  if it DID happen (terror attacks here) even the peeps over at rabble.ca would be screaming to launch the B52s.

On the same note we are "fighting the war in Afghanistan" the wrong way. If we really wanted to install a democracy over there we'd need to flatten the place first and rebuild it- other wise we're trying to put a fire out by smothering it with money.

 

[Remius]

The only reason I would pile on to you is because you are using DA iconography in your profile when your name is clearly BT.  ;D

 

[aesop081]

Wiping out a city that's a hotbed for the enemy I do agree with,

Except for the fact that it didn't work in Germany. Bombing entire cities into oblivion did not cause the population there to stop supporting the regime.

If we really wanted to install a democracy over there we'd need to flatten the place first and rebuild it-

So your answer to me is "Yes, we should have flattened the place" ?

 

[Jarnhamar]

The only reason I would pile on to you is because you are using DA iconography in your profile when your name is clearly BT.  ;D

Damnit!

 

[Jarnhamar]

Except for the fact that it didn't work in Germany. Bombing entire cities into oblivion did not cause the population there to stop supporting the regime.

Germany surrendered in the end. It may not have caused the population to cease supporting the regime but I guarantee that Hamburg's and Dresden's contribution to the war effort was considerably less.

So your answer to me is "Yes, we should have flattened the place" ?

I'm not sure what place you're referring to specifically however to try and paraphrase (I think)  if the town of Deh Ravod was constantly being used by insurgents to attack NATO I would tell the town to either help us stop the attacks or police themselves and if it continued to happen I'd send out a pretty eviction notice and then bull doze the town.
Yup it'll turn people against us but sooner or later people would realize we're not backing down and we have the capability to flatten the whole country so maybe they would change their tune. Or, start living in tents. Sold by tent companies belonging to Halliburton, naturally.

 

[aesop081]

Yup it'll turn people against us but sooner or later people would realize we're not backing down and we have the capability to flatten the whole country so maybe they would change their tune.

The what ? After we leave, what happens ?

Do we want to force people into and garrison Afghanistan for ever or do we convince them that our way is better so we can have a stable-ish country that doesn't need 200 rotos of Canadians ?

 

[Infanteer]

I said no because the Taliban have indicated fairly well that they have no objections to butchering us. Us "Infidels" existing offends them and their religious doctrine.  I fully believe that if given the chance and resources they would happily come over here and try to crap in our cereal (then cut our heads off and dance around).  To me, every day that all this violence is going on in Afghanistan and not North America is a victory.

Go back and read my post on the four issues in Afghanistan - nowhere was "conflict with Christianity" or "global Caliphate" on that list.  Again, you are confusing the Taliban and current Afghan resistance with transnational Salafist terrorism.  Two completely different groups/concepts/motives/phenomenon.  Blaming the Afghan insurgency on "western religion" and "freedom" is a shallow cop out when in reality, foreign military presence and conflict with the central government is the real fuel to the fire.  All insurgency is local.

The reference to bombing Germany flat is no good either.  The bombing of Germany was done to attack their wartime production and the willpower of the people to support its government.  In Afghanistan, we've knocked off the regime and are now de facto occupiers on behalf of the client government.  There is no wartime production and no regime support to attack with such tactics.

 

[Sythen]

I'm not sure what place you're referring to specifically however to try and paraphrase (I think)  if the town of Deh Ravod was constantly being used by insurgents to attack NATO I would tell the town to either help us stop the attacks or police themselves and if it continued to happen I'd send out a pretty eviction notice and then bull doze the town.
Yup it'll turn people against us but sooner or later people would realize we're not backing down and we have the capability to flatten the whole country so maybe they would change their tune. Or, start living in tents. Sold by tent companies belonging to Halliburton, naturally.

Just an anecdote which I can't back up with any real proof, so you will just need to take my word. While in Afghanistan, the insurgents always hit us from certain areas.. One particular attack on the COP killed two ANA soldiers. The next day we went to the elder of that town, and the ANA commander told him that if we were attacked from his town again he would kill the elder and his whole family. We never got hit from there again.

We can threaten anyone all we want, the locals know we won't do anything except throw money at them. The ANA however had nothing against killing the locals and the elder knew it. Maybe if we weren't seen as pussies and put our foot down now and then, things would change.

 

[jollyjacktar]

We can threaten anyone all we want, the locals know we won't do anything except throw money at them. The ANA however had nothing against killing the locals and the elder knew it. Maybe if we weren't seen as pussies and put our foot down now and then, things would change.

When that PAN AM jet was hijacked 30 or so years ago and stood on the tarmac while the Palestinian gunmen held hostages and killed some, the Yanks dithered.  My Dad said that if they were to send in a jet or two, take out the whole aircraft, hijackers, hostages and all with a statement to the effect that they will not negotiate with terrorists etc.  That, that would be the end of any such act as there would be nothing to be gained.  He said of course that it would be political suicide to do such a thing, but that was the language the terrorists would understand.

When the Russians were victim of hostage takings in the mid 80's in Beirut.  They sent a Spetsnaz wet team in to deal with exterminate the relatives of the hostage takers.  The surviving Russian hostages were swiftly returned, and no one screwed with the Russians in Lebanon after.  Pussies, they aren't.

 

[Jarnhamar]

The what ? After we leave, what happens ?

Well having seen the light (see what I did there?) they join NATO and rebuild their country into a beautiful paradise.

Do we want to force people into and garrison Afghanistan for ever or do we convince them that our way is better so we can have a stable-ish country that doesn't need 200 rotos of Canadians ?

How are we doing on convincing them that our way is better so far?  If winning their hearts and minds worked I'd be all for it. It's not working.
We can;
-Leave now, have our local allies butchered and wait for them to start trying to get some pay back.
-Garrison them like the Russians and feed men money and material into that grinder until they assimilate into something we want OR make it so costly for us we revert to option #1
-Keep pouring men money and material into the hearts and minds thing we got going on which hasn't been all that successful yet.
-Work out a deal with the Taliban which puts them in power and we try and put a spin on it to make it look like we're all friends again.

I don't have a right answer.  What about you CDN Aviator, what do YOU think we should do?

Go back and read my post on the four issues in Afghanistan - nowhere was "conflict with Christianity" or "global Caliphate" on that list.  Again, you are confusing the Taliban and current Afghan resistance with transnational Salafist terrorism.  Two completely different groups/concepts/motives/phenomenon.  Blaming the Afghan insurgency on "western religion" and "freedom" is a shallow cop out when in reality, foreign military presence and conflict with the central government is the real fuel to the fire.  All insurgency is local.

It may not be on your list but I think it's definitely an issue.
We're the big bad western christian infidels. I'd blame the insurgency on us being in their country AND them believing our lifestyle is an affront to their religion and we should die for it.  When you say the insurgency is local do you mean to that region including Pakistan?

The reference to bombing Germany flat is no good either.  The bombing of Germany was done to attack their wartime production and the willpower of the people to support its government.  In Afghanistan, we've knocked off the regime and are now de facto occupiers on behalf of the client government.  There is no wartime production and no regime support to attack with such tactics.

The client government (and police and army) being where some of the dudes from the old regime are hiding out- but ya I see where you're going with that.

Just an anecdote which I can't back up with any real proof, so you will just need to take my word. While in Afghanistan, the insurgents always hit us from certain areas.. One particular attack on the COP killed two ANA soldiers. The next day we went to the elder of that town, and the ANA commander told him that if we were attacked from his town again he would kill the elder and his whole family. We never got hit from there again.

We can threaten anyone all we want, the locals know we won't do anything except throw money at them. The ANA however had nothing against killing the locals and the elder knew it. Maybe if we weren't seen as pussies and put our foot down now and then, things would change.

No one likes to admit that that tactic can work.

 

[aesop081]

  If winning their hearts and minds worked I'd be all for it. It's not working.

It's not working because we've gone into it half-assed. We failed at "selection and maintenance of the aim" and we also failed " concentration of force". We tried to do this on the cheap and not have the results to prove it.

I don't have a right answer.

Neither do i, but IMHO, flattening the place achieves only short-term military aims. It does nothing to achieve long-term political aims and settle it once and for all.

What about you CDN Aviator, what do YOU think we should do?

Invest a much larger force than what we went with. We went over there on the discount plan. We needed to go big, very big, right from the start. We needed to be and stay in more places. There was not enough done on the non-military front and i don't think we ever really understood the cultural dynamics of the place and how we could influence it.

[/armchairing]

 

[Journeyman]

When the Russians were victim of hostage takings in the mid 80's in Beirut.  They sent a Spetsnaz wet team in to deal with exterminate the relatives of the hostage takers.  The surviving Russian hostages were swiftly returned, and no one screwed with the Russians in Lebanon after. 

Do you have a source for this?

Google just keeps directing me to a site called "Godlike Productions: UFOs, Conspiracy Theorists, Lunatic Fringe."  :

 

[Tow Tripod]

Would I lose any sleep if all NATO forces withdrew tomorrow? Nope ,not a wink! So long as there is air presence either aircraft or drones to destroy any illegal gatherings. Historians can decide if the war in Afghanistan was worth it. Right now I'm very skeptical. OBL is dead. We (the West) have tried to rebuild a society that is trapped in the 13th century. Karzia is corrupt as a days long. So where do we go from here?

 

[jollyjacktar]

Do you have a source for this?

Google just keeps directing me to a site called "Godlike Productions: UFOs, Conspiracy Theorists, Lunatic Fringe."  :

My source is a Sgt I worked for who was in Beirut at the Cdn embassy with the security detail at the time of the incident.  My wife was also in the city for a period during that time frame.  She told me that everyone knew who was responsible for any bad shit that was going down so identifying the guilty bastards was fairly simple. 

The Russians were given ransom demands, which they flatly refused to honour.  The terrorists then delivered the body of one of the staff members to the entrance of the Embassy to show they meant business.  The Russians responded in kind spades as I mentioned earlier.  I'm sorry, I cannot quote you bible and verse per se.

 

[OldSolduer]

When the Russians were victim of hostage takings in the mid 80's in Beirut.  They sent a Spetsnaz wet team in to deal with exterminate the relatives of the hostage takers.  The surviving Russian hostages were swiftly returned, and no one screwed with the Russians in Lebanon after.  Pussies, they aren't.

I read similar things elsewhere.....however I think our Russian friends may never tell us if that was true.

I can't recall too many Russian diplomats being kidnapped.

 

[Infanteer]

Of course, 1 search of google reveals that Wikipedia talks about all of this Soviet stuff.  There is a citation to a book as well:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alpha_Group

 

[Jarnhamar]

It's not working because we've gone into it half-assed. We failed at "selection and maintenance of the aim" and we also failed " concentration of force". We tried to do this on the cheap and not have the results to prove it.

Much of that is over my head . I'm really only concerned with 3 things.  Where am I going, what weapons do I have, when do I shoot.  considering it took us 2 months to (officially) zero our weapons after being there it stuck me as a little half assed at my level.  I think the idea to establish a democracy there was failed from the beginning. When we started complaining about sexual and physical abuse of Afghan civilians and got told to not worry about it, it's their country I knew democracy went the way of the dinosaurs.

Neither do i, but IMHO, flattening the place achieves only short-term military aims. It does nothing to achieve long-term political aims and settle it once and for all.

I didn't suggest carper bombing the place merely not tying a hand behind our backs when we fight with hearts and minds rope.

Invest a much larger force than what we went with. We went over there on the discount plan. We needed to go big, very big, right from the start. We needed to be and stay in more places. There was not enough done on the non-military front and i don't think we ever really understood the cultural dynamics of the place and how we could influence it.

A wise lesson learned but not addressing what to do with the current situation. Trying to add them to our facebook friends list seems like the most economical option.

 

[Jarnhamar]

I read similar things elsewhere.....however I think our Russian friends may never tell us if that was true.

I can't recall too many Russian diplomats being kidnapped.

By the time Alpha was on-site, word had spread that one of the hostages had already been killed. Through a network of supporting KGB operatives, members of the task-force were able to successfully identify each of the perpetrators involved in the crisis, and once discovered, began to take the individual relatives of the extremists hostage. Following the standard Soviet policy of "no negotiation with terrorists," the hostages belonging to Alpha Group had some of their body parts cut off and sent directly to the Sunni militants. The warning was quite clear: more would follow unless the remaining hostages were released immediately. The show of force worked, and for a period of twenty years

It may make me an asshole but I support something like this 100%.