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Is the US on the brink of a humiliating defeat in Afghanistan?

Old Sweat

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This is the second time in two days I have come across the theory that states in simplified terms that the Koran burning and the shooting of civilians indicate that lower ranking members of the US military understand that the war cannot be won. The acts are an indication of a break down in discipline and the other person to put the theory forward hinted she would not be surprised to see an outbreak in fraggings. She also claimed it was a result of too long a period of occupation. At lot of what they claim is poppycock, but it may sound attractive to some. The piece, which was published in the Toronto Star, is reproduced under the Fair Dealings provisions of the Copyright Act.

U.S. on brink of humiliating defeat in Afghanistan

Published On Mon Mar 19 2012


By Richard GwynColumnist


In a powerful column for the London-based Independent, veteran Middle East journalist Robert Fisk argues that the media’s coverage of the killing by an American soldier of 16 Afghan civilians, mostly women and children, “has been curiously lobotomized.”

Fisk makes an important point. Overwhelmingly, the stories attribute the terrible deed to variations on “an act of madness,” “brain-damage,” “trauma,” by a deranged, overstressed soldier.

In itself, that interpretation is pretty obviously correct. The suspect, Staff Sgt. Robert Bales, was doing his fourth battlefield tour in Iraq and Afghanistan. Earlier he had suffered a brain trauma; very recently, he witnessed a colleague lose his leg to a roadside bomb.

Yet the interpretation is incomplete, and too convenient. Fisk refers to a briefing to GIs three weeks ago by the top American commander, Gen. John Allen. The trigger for his talk was the killing of two American soldiers by an Afghan working with them as retribution for the burning at a U.S. base of some copies of the Qur’an (in fact, unintentionally so).

Allen told his men, “Now is not the time for revenge,” urging them instead to “look deep inside your souls, remember your mission, remember your mission.”

Fisk, who is almost unrelievedly critical of all U.S. actions in the Middle East, was far too harsh in his condemnation of Allen’s somewhat inept plea to his soldiers not to exact revenge “now.” And he’s too dismissive of the effect on any soldier of repeated, life-threatening, stress.

But he has identified correctly what is surely the single most important aspect of the present war in Afghanistan.

This is that the American soldiers themselves now know that the war has become pointless, just as an earlier generation of GIs knew when the war in Vietnam became pointless.

Pointless, that is, in the sense that it can no longer be won except in the minimalist sense that — unlike in Vietnam — it might still, just, somehow, not be lost too humiliatingly.

In almost all wars there is a tilting point at which the soldiers involved, regardless of which side they are on, limit their actions to “not being the last soldier to die.” (A deeply depressing exception to this rule was the way German soldiers fought ferociously long after it was obvious Adolf Hitler had lost World War II.)

The effect of this realization is that the “discipline” Gen. Allen tried to invoke unravels. Instead, the terrible truth about the behaviour Sgt. Bales is accused of is that more events like it are certain to happen. No less so, other Afghans who have worked for the Americans and become friends with them, will shoot them in the back.

Once wars become pointless, they become exercises in insanity. All the reasons concocted to justify their continuation — not abandoning liberal-minded Afghans (women especially) to the savage rule of fundamentalist extremists; gaining time to train enough Afghans to look after their own security; preserving American military honour — are now just empty rhetoric.

The only rhetoric that has any meaning anymore is a description of how best to get out as quickly as possible.

To suppose that the consequences of a hasty withdrawal won’t be unpleasant would be an exercise in self-delusion. The U.S. may be about to turn isolationist. Does anyone suppose the world will be better policed by China and Russia, or by no one? The slaughter in Syria (for which the U.S. is blameless) may become the standard way of life in the Middle East, as it already is in many Arab countries.

But perpetuating a pointless war imposes a fearful moral cost on the nation responsible.

Moreover, the potential positive consequences of ending it can be critical. The action does cauterize the wound. The U.S. did recover — politically, militarily, morally — from its defeat in Vietnam. To recover from Afghanistan, though, it will first have to go through the valley of humiliation.
 
Our society, and especially American society, has changed.

We, your generation and mine, Old Sweat, and the two that have followed us, were raised on a myth of our own (American, anyway) invincibility, based in our technological know how, our industrial prowess and our own, innate, superiority over the "Lesser breeds without the Law." It worked against Germany and Japan, even against China in Korea. We did "win" the Cold War, in two phases: first, we stood up the Russians, drew a "line in the sand," that we called a tripwire strategy and relied upon the technological superiority of our nuclear weapons; then, second, we relied upon the strength of our free economic system to, finally, expose the inherent, internal and fatal contradictions in the USSR's command economy and bring the whole thing crashing down.

But wars of "national liberation" were different - as the British learned in Palestine, Africa and Cyprus, as the French were taught (but never appeared to learn) in Indo China and Algeria and as the Americans were also taught (did they learn anything?) in Viet Nam.

The Middle East and West Asia pose their own dilemma: we romanticized the region after T.E. Lawrence, failing to grasp its complex but deeply flawed cultures. Starting with Ike's overthrow of Mohammad Mosaddegh's Iranian government in 1953, and on until today, we have assumed that the North Africans, Arabs, Persians and West Asians are rather like us. We were and are wrong: they do not share many of our cultural values, they do not even agree, fundamentally, with our conception of fundamental, inalienable human rights. Their fundamentals are quite different; the cultural divide is wide and deep. They don't want our "values" because our values are alien to their culture. We are interlopers, generally unwelcome interlopers, in and defilers of their "ummah".

I also think that we, the American led West, as a society, have a defined "attention span." We expect crises, we are not afraid to face them, but we expect them to be resolved fairly expeditiously. Viet Nam dragged on and on, so did Iraq, so did Afghanistan - our attention span was exhausted and, since we were not involved, as a "nation in arms," as we were in 1939-45 for example, it was easy, too easy to lose focus, especially when there was, and is, a reasonable domestic opposition to whatever war we are fighting.

It all adds up, I think, to uncertainty - which is a good principle in quantum mechanics but less so in the conduct of war.



Edit: typo
 
ER....I was going to add my comments, but then I reread your post, and I think that pretty much sums it up. I really don't think the US, Canada, Australia, et al get it.
 
ER I like your reference to "attention span".

Everyone, politicians included, expect a short sweet simple solution - like on any episode of CSI where the bad guys are arrested just prior to the last commercial. If they don't get the short sweet simple solution, they find something else.....


OH SHINY STUFF over there !!!  ;D
 
Afghanistan is a perfect example of how political meddling can ruin a military operation. By using the Northern Alliance to topple the taliban with a bit of help from the USAF,CIA and SF we achieved our goal with minimal footprint. Nation building was a huge mistake. Putting 70,000 troops into Afghanistan was an even bigger mistake. The politicians[both US and Afghan] couldnt resist the impulse to meddle by dictating the ROE and then a COIN strategy ,which we never had the forces to implement. We have spent our blood and treasure on a noble if flawed undertaking and our feelings are hurt when the Afghans dont seem to appreciate our effort.Our worst failure was to support Karzai. He looked grand in his colorful capes,but he lacked the steel to wage a war to the death against the Taliban.In the end we fight the taliban in the field and the spineless Karzai. He attempts to pander to the taliban at our expense and yet in the end to the taliban he is dead man or will be should they get their hands on him.
 
On a more philosophical note, I think that we, the west, attempt to conduct war as though it were some sort of business.  It's not.  War is, by its nature, a clash of societies, only one of which can triumph.  If one attempts to wage war without acknowledging this fact, then that side will not win that war. 

Look at Afghanistan and how we are conducting that war, and then look back in time to the Second World War.

Today, we are told to respect Afghans and their culture, learn their language, and live life as they do, (to some extent).

In 1939-1945, the message was clear: this is a war for survival, and we will do whatever it takes to triumph, because they, the Germans are evil and they must be subdued.  That is why we bombed their cities to dust.  That is why our entire economies geared for war.  It wasn't a matter of sending off an expeditionary force to do battle.  It was our society engaging theirs. 

If I were President of the USA on 11 September, 2001, things would have been much different.  Once OBL had been confirmed to be behind the attacks of 9/11, and once he had been confirmed to be at Tarnak Farms, I would have ordered his compound to be destroyed by a single ~10kt nuclear bomb.  It would have guaranteed that he was dead, and though it would have spared the nearby city of Kandahar, the message would be clear: if you attack us on our homes like this, we will unleash hell on you.

If one wishes to wage war, it's a very grave decision, but in the end, if the answer is "yes" to war, then it must be total.  Just as one cannot be "sort of" pregnant, you cannot have your army at war and your country at peace.  It just doesn't work.

My  :2c:
 
All military missions are driven by political considerations.

Tactical military success is irrelevant if it does not achieve your strategic aims.  If those strategic aims are ill-conceived or poorly considered, military prowess does not matter.

I seem to recall that the first principle of war (Canadian doctrine) is "Selection and maintenance of the aim".  Lacking a clearly enunciated political aim for the end-state in Afghanistan, how do you measure success?

I concur with ERC's observations about the West's ignorance of the rest of the world.  Foolish expectations that a Jeffersonian democracy would arise and take hold in a matter of weeks or months have clearly shown the intellectual vacuum into which forces were launched.  (Inded, one could observe that the Jeffersonian democracy of the USA has had many problems and stumbles along the way - the period of 1861 to 1865 shows that widespread bloodshed can occur in such a state).



(And note that the words "Operational Level" and "Operational Art" do not appear here.  Neither does the tooth fairy or the easter bunny - two other things that don't exist)
 
dapaterson said:
(And note that the words "Operational Level" and "Operational Art" do not appear here.  Neither does the tooth fairy or the easter bunny - two other things that don't exist)
Oh man, that's harsh.......just harsh.  :(
 
dapaterson said:
"Selection and maintenance of the aim". 

We have ADHD. We can set aims all we want, but there is shiny stuff everywhere.....seriously, Western society appears to me to not have the stomach for a fight.
 
Technoviking said:
If I were President of the USA on 11 September, 2001, things would have been much different.  Once OBL had been confirmed to be behind the attacks of 9/11, and once he had been confirmed to be at Tarnak Farms, I would have ordered his compound to be destroyed by a single ~10kt nuclear bomb.  It would have guaranteed that he was dead, and though it would have spared the nearby city of Kandahar, the message would be clear: if you attack us on our homes like this, we will unleash hell on you.


My  :2c:

This is something I have postulated at various times much to the horror of friends and family.  A low yield Nuke on teh compound would have sent a very serious message and solved the problem.  It would have shaken up several countries like Iran, North Korea and Venezuela that the US is not to messed with.  And it would have been a message they would have heeded.  Yes there would have been critics but likely the same ones we are hearing from now.  Given the events of 9/11 and the shock the world felt it would have been hard for any country to be overly critical.

Like Iran now.  As soon as one boat fires on an american ship or tries to close the strait I would bomb that Navy into oblivion to ensure they can never do that again.  Screw the nation building there.  If they tried to rebuild their fleet to act up again: Rinse and repeat.
 
Jim Seggie said:
We have ADHD. We can set aims all we want, but there is shiny stuff everywhere.....seriously, Western society appears to me to not have the stomach for a fight.

Our troops have done everything we have asked of them to include fighting with one hand tied behind their back. Our weakness is our political correctness.
 
Technoviking said:
In 1939-1945, the message was clear: this is a war for survival, and we will do whatever it takes to triumph, because they, the Germans are evil and they must be subdued.  That is why we bombed their cities to dust.  That is why our entire economies geared for war.  It wasn't a matter of sending off an expeditionary force to do battle.  It was our society engaging theirs. 

Interesting to note that RCAF night bomber crews were usually briefed on the economic importance of their targets. But, late in the war, high ranking officers were personally briefing aircrews on their political importance: "Never again will any future German government be able to say that the country was fairly well intact but still undefeated."
 
One further comment on Mr Gwyn's piece.  He is a typical Canadian journalist, in ascribing problems solely to the Americans.  NATO and its members (Canada included) carry equal weight of any blame for failure.
 
Old Sweat said:
This is the second time in two days I have come across the theory that states...that lower ranking members of the US military understand that the war cannot be won.
It sounds like it's an increasingly common perception, we have "pundit circular reporting" based on all hearing the same talk, or your friends have been reading "Stratfor."  ;)


In a somewhat lengthy analysis Stratfor's George Freedman states, amongst several other things, the following:
Afghanistan and the Long War
March 19, 2012 | 2235 GMT
By George Freedman

Staff Sgt. Robert Bales, who allegedly perpetrated the appalling slaughter in Afghanistan, was on his fourth tour of combat duty. He had served three tours in Iraq of nine, 15 and 12 months -- he had been at war for three years. His tour in Afghanistan was going to be his fourth year....

In Vietnam, only volunteers served more than a single one-year tour. For Americans in World War II, the war lasted a little more than three years, and only a handful of U.S. troops were in combat for that long. U.S. involvement in World War I lasted less than two years, and most U.S. soldiers were deployed for a year or less. In U.S. history, only the Civil and Revolutionary wars lasted as long as Bales had served.

Atrocities occur in all wars. This is an observation, not an excuse. And they become more likely the longer a soldier is in combat. War is brutal and it brutalizes the souls of warriors. Some resist the brutalization better than others, but no one can see death that often and not be changed. Just as important, the enemy is dehumanized. You cannot fight and fear him for years and not come to see him as someone alien to you.



This is made all the more dangerous because the force is reaching its limits. Resisting terrorism is important. Eliminating it is an illusion. To continue with the long war with the forces available puts in motion processes that threaten the republic without securing U.S. interests. Leaving aside the threat to the republic, a force at its limits and left to fight a war on the margins of national consciousness will not be effective.
So, while I'm not seeing fragging any time soon, the "attention span" is spent.


 
tomahawk6 said:
Nation building was a huge mistake.

Our problem is that even though we called it nation building, it was more forced culture change.  You cannot force liberal democratic values on a society which has no history of it.  The only way this would have even been remotely possible is if on day 2 of the invasion is the "re-education" of the next generation of afghani leaders.  Basically a copy of the residental school program that Canada had, and we all know how history treated that one.  As a western society we do not have the stomac for the systematic re-education and cultural genocide needed to bring in the core values that are needed for a democracy.

Otherwise we will just a repeat of what happened in egypt where the muslim brotherhood won the election as best case, or what I fear Iraq is going to turn into within the next 4 years and have a new saddam and we end up with gulf war 3.

 
tomahawk6 said:
Our troops have done everything we have asked of them to include fighting with one hand tied behind their back. Our weakness is our political correctness.

Agreed.

I should have clarified my earlier statement.
 
Crantor said:
It would have shaken up several countries like Iran, North Korea and Venezuela that the US is not to messed with.  And it would have been a message they would have heeded.
Unfortunately, I'm not sufficiently expert on Iranian, North Korean, and Venezuelan cultures to know what they would heed and what they would take as demanding vengeance. 
 
Technoviking said:
Just as one cannot be "sort of" pregnant, you cannot have your army at war and your country at peace.  It just doesn't work.

Although I cannot claim ownership to this statement, I agree with it. "The Canadian Forces are at war.  Canada ia at the mall."
 
Haggis said:
"The Canadian Forces are at war.  Canada ia at the mall."

Bull.  The CF was never at war.  Three thousand of 52K trained Reg F and 20K trained Res F does not equal "at war".  It's less than 5% of your force deployed.  Even if you add the next roto and prior roto to the count you're still at 12.5%  of the CF - or one in eight.


Let's not overstate what we did - a mid level economy produced a light Bde's worth of effect on the ground. Hardly grounds to claim we were "at war".
 
Haggis said:
"The Canadian Forces are at war.  Canada ia at the mall."

This is funny, and yes I will admit I got a good laugh from it.

On further reflection though...its true.
 
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