Is the CPC about to split

[Remius]

I figured we could start a topic with what has been going on with Maxime Bernier.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/conservative-bernier-caucus-scheer-1.4795623

It seems he will be making a statement at 13:00 today.

More and more I think we are going to see a split of the CPC.  I would not be surprised if Mr. Bernier splits from the party to form his own.

If that should happen the conservatives would likely go through what they did in the 90's and the liberals will be in power for a long time again.

Still early but I think Bernier doesn't care and will go his own way.  I'd be curious to see who might follow him.

The Washington post also commented on the current "melt down".

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/global-opinions/wp/2018/08/18/canadas-conservatives-are-having-a-mini-meltdown/?noredirect=on&utm_term=.f6aa3c11e9e4

 

[Colin Parkinson]

A split may not hurt to much if they are careful not to compete to much against each other.

 

[Halifax Tar]

Could this be a still festering infected wound from the PC and Reform Party merger years ago ?

One was more centre right than the other...

 

[McG]

A split would be good for them.  They currently represent too broad a swath of the political spectrum, and voters are leery about what they are getting in any given candidate.  But ...

A split may not hurt to much if they are careful not to compete to much against each other.

A split and a detent could hurt both parties is voters see it as a façade for one still big party pretending to be two.  Healthy democracy should not require that we limit voter choice in any given riding to prevent a minority opinion from winning.  A better option for voters and for a split CPC would have been ranked ballots.

 

[QV]

A split may not hurt to much if they are careful not to compete to much against each other.

I disagree.  A divided conservative party will ensure a liberal government.  Look at what happened in Alberta.

 

[Remius]

I disagree.  A divided conservative party will ensure a liberal government.  Look at what happened in Alberta.

I'm of that thought as well.

Stephen Harper had the ability and strength to keep it together.  I'm not sure that Scheer does.  In fact I'm pretty sure he doesn't. 

 

[brihard]

I don’t think we would see a party split. That would collapse the CPC, and would lock things in for the liberals for a considerable time.

Bernier is their most high profile Quebec member, and it looks like he’s out of the family, so they have problems. *However*, the Liberals have a serious uphill battle in Quebec, and a lot of their struggles align with Bernier’s sentiments. The Conservatives are going to need a new Quebec face or two who can bring feet to fire on some of the concerns underlying Bernier’s grandstanding, but do so in a way that stays issues-based and doesn’t put the CPC in too bad a light with centrist voters in terms of perceptions of xenophobia and bigotry. It will be a difficult balancing game. With the huge struggles the Liberals are facing in Quebec, room does exist to pull it off.

 

[Remius]

Talk radio this morning has an informal poll asking people what they think will happen.

1. Bernier leaves and forms his party.
2. Bernier leaves and runs provincially with the CAQ
3. Bernier makes a formal challenge to Scheer within the party
4. Nothing happens.

If 1 happens.  Does he also drag some current MPs with him?
If 2 happens then the CAQ will have a star candidate
If 3 happens it could be civil war within the party
If 4 happens, I'll have a coke.

 

[brihard]

What, precisely, is a ‘formal challenge to Scheer within his own party’? Bernier already did that through the mechanism of the leadership convention, and he lost. I think in about ten minutes we’re going to see Bernier trot out a cricket bat in anticipation of the grenade rolling his way from the party leadership. It shall be interesting.

 

[Remius]

No clue.  just what I heard on the radio.

CTV is stoking the own party thing with an interesting ally...(Marcel Masse)

https://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/maxime-bernier-announcement-sparks-rumour-he-ll-start-own-party-1.4064855

 

[Remius]

Well, looks like he's forming his own party.

Bob Fife, althea Raj etc all reporting on their twitter feeds...

 

[Remius]

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/politics/article-maxime-bernier-to-make-announcement-ahead-of-conservative-convention/

In particular is this: 

“I have come to realize over the past year that this party is too intellectually and morally corrupt to be reformed,” Mr. Bernier told reporters in Ottawa on Thursday.

"The Conservative Party has abandoned conservatives. It does not represent them anymore. And it has nothing of substance to offer Canadians looking for a political alternative."

Now comes the speculation of what happens next.  Will some people flock to him?  He did get 49% of the party vote.  many conservatives agree with his stance on supply management and he might appeal to French Quebecers.

 

[brihard]

If he splits off and starts a new right wing party, then he hands the next election to Trudeau. Quite the tantrum.

 

[Remius]

If he splits off and starts a new right wing party, then he hands the next election to Trudeau. Quite the tantrum.

Yep.  We might as well call it now.

Congrats to Trudeau and the LPC.  Scheer is finished.  If not now then soon.  :not-again:

 

[Remius]

More war gaming here.

Back in February, Bernier courted the 7 bloc members who resigned from that party to join the CPC.  If he manages to get them on board with his new party, he would only be 4 members short of official party status.  And he might already have a few people. 

Just musing here...

 

[Lumber]

More war gaming here.

Back in February, Bernier courted the 7 bloc members who resigned from that party to join the CPC.  If he manages to get them on board with his new party, he would only be 4 members short of official party status.  And he might already have a few people. 

Just musing here...

Legitimately curious here (as I don't delve too deeply into the specifics of the CPC), but what would a "Bernier" party look compared to the present CPC?

Would it be more right wing, more center, or neither, but just having different priorities?

 

[Underway]

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/politics/article-maxime-bernier-to-make-announcement-ahead-of-conservative-convention/

In particular is this: 

“I have come to realize over the past year that this party is too intellectually and morally corrupt to be reformed,” Mr. Bernier told reporters in Ottawa on Thursday.

"The Conservative Party has abandoned conservatives. It does not represent them anymore. And it has nothing of substance to offer Canadians looking for a political alternative."

Now comes the speculation of what happens next.  Will some people flock to him?  He did get 49% of the party vote.  many conservatives agree with his stance on supply management and he might appeal to French Quebecers.

Depending on how things work out this may very well guarantee a liberal victory in the next election.  I remember well the Reform days where Chretien won handily because of the split in the right vote.  Combined with the current collapse of the NDP federally it's going to be a cakewalk for JT.  Of course all this changes with an election and "events".

Legitimately curious here (as I don't delve too deeply into the specifics of the CPC), but what would a "Bernier" party look compared to the present CPC?

Would it be more right wing, more center, or neither, but just having different priorities?

Less authoritarian and more libertarian.  He's by far the most libertarian of Conservatives that speak publicly.

Edit:  After some more thought this might be good for the Conservative party as well.  The Liberals often win by stealing the "best" ideas from the NDP.  It's a constant NDP complaint.  Having a smaller party (if they even can get up and running) to trail run more controversial policies without worrying about it yourself ...

 

[Colin Parkinson]

Depends, if they don't bother running candidates in the same riding's, then the effect is minimal. Hopefully they put their ego's aside and look as to where a Max candidate will do well or a Scheer one. A conservative version of Hashtag#AnyonebutJT

 

[a_majoor]

A "Bernier" party, at least so long as it follows the leaders own political convictions would be a small "l" Libertarian party.

The issue of splitting parties and votes for the benefit of the LPC is a real one, but on the other hand the CPC is currently in the same situation the PCPO was between 2002 and the election of Doug Ford. They don't seem to have the intellectual horsepower to deliver different or out of the box solutions to the problems of the day, lack effective messaging and their leadership can't even challenge in terms of personality or charisma.

The primary reason I supported Doug Ford wasn't because I think he's an exemplary guy, but rather the PCPO needed a massive shakeup (and this would have been true even if they lost). I believe the same is needed inside the CPC, and until they get out of their "liberal lite" mode, voters will not see any real reason to switch unless PMJT trips rather dramatically over his colourful socks and it can no longer be ignored/handwaved by the media.

A "Bernier" party may be able to bring a lot fo followers of the Reform Party back into the fold, but as a practical matter, they will not have the organizational horsepower or resources to really do more than act as challengers or spoilers. Given that in 2019 the Liberals are going to run against Donald Trump, and indications are most Canadian political parties will follow suit, there is some room to advance different political views and ideas for  a "Bernier" party. How well that will work is another story.

 

[Fishbone Jones]

Legitimately curious here (as I don't delve too deeply into the specifics of the CPC), but what would a "Bernier" party look compared to the present CPC?

Would it be more right wing, more center, or neither, but just having different priorities?

Big unknown. You can speculate based on their personality but I think it's best to wait for their platform. Which should be forthcoming shortly.

This could be the trigger for a snap election. Do it while the opposition is in disarray.