India (Superthread)

[CBH99]

India is known for having a pretty non-effective agency responsible for military procurement.  They couldn't even finalize a deal with the French for Rafale, and the French were being pretty generous in their offerings of initial aircraft manufactured in France to give the Indian Air Force an immediate, much needed capability - and allowing full tech transfer & manufacturing in India.  India still couldn't negotiate the details & sign a bloody contract.

So with that being said...and the Indian government well aware it has issues procuring high-end military equipment... does it want to jump through even more hoops by doing business with the US?  Or is doing business with Russia just easier, since Russia has typically been their supplier anyway? 


Unlike Turkey, India isn't a JSF partner.  Never could be or probably will be, until the JSF is in the same league as an F-16 is today.  So the issue of the S-400 being in Indian service isn't a big deal...they aren't part of the JSF program (re: fears Turkey can use the S-400 to gather all kinds of tracking info on the JSF and send to Russia) -- nor are their AD capabilities linked to NATO in any way.  Going with the S-400, if logistically and politically easier, seems pretty justified from an Indian perspective.

And until relatively recently, the US was focused on sending plenty of free military aid to India's rival - Pakistan - which was a mistake right from the very start.  Pakistan is flying F-16's, and the US has supplied it with ample anti-tank missiles, attack helicopters, artillery pieces, etc etc - which Pakistan has used in various skirmishes with Indian forces along their border.  All the while Pakistan blatantly interferes with NATO operations in Afghanistan which has very clearly contributed to us the lives of our fallen.



So if we were India...and we had a choice... 

Do business with the US in which they will only meet with their Indian counterparts after pre-agreeing to certain terms, thereby drastically eliminating freedom to openly discuss various issues -- and business can only be done if India agrees to the checklist the US provides?

Or do business with Russia, that has always been there over the decades to supply India with minimal complications, and is offering a very effective solution to them protecting their airspace?

Did Russia threaten to sanction India if it went with updated Patriot?  Nope. 

But the US warns of sanctions if India goes with S-400?  Not the greatest way to "win over a new ally" - which is what Washington has been trying to do - especially given the last few decades of ignoring them while supplying their rivals. 

US being over-bearing indeed, because they forget why India isn't already an ally in the first place...

 

[MarkOttawa]

Meanwhile, what with India's procurements balls-ups, there's rather a Rafale "scandal":

French Rafale jets deal sparks political storm in India

A 2015 Indian deal to buy 36 French Rafale fighter jets has whipped up a political storm in India with the opposition claiming Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s “friends” – and not the country – is benefitting from a bad deal.

Back in April 2015, when Narendra Modi announced India’s order of 36 French-made Rafale fighter jets on the first day of his first official visit to France, it was hailed as proof that the self-styled “man of action” prime minister could deliver.

Negotiations for the high-profile deal had dragged on for three years with deadlocks over the costs and subsidiary clauses frequently stalling the process. But when the French-Indian intergovernmental deal was finally struck, it was hailed by all parties with then French President François Hollande noting that it showed the partnership between India and France had “entered a new stage and our countries are united by the most beautiful kind of relationship, a relationship of trust".

But three years later, the Rafale deal has turned into a synonym for distrust in India between the opposition and the ruling BJP (Bharatiya Janata Party) amid allegations of collusion, lack of transparency and crony capitalism.

“The Rafale corruption scandal,” as it has been dubbed in the Indian press, has been making headlines since the leader of the opposition Congress party, Rahul Gandhi, brought up the issue during a July no-confidence motion against the government in parliament.

While the Modi government won the vote of confidence with a comfortable margin, it has not stopped the media storm, as the scandal has broadened to include accusations of “the misuse of the media” and legal notices to opposition politicians and a national daily to stop relaying “unverified, speculative” information.

At the heart of the Rafale scandal lies Indian billionaire businessman, Anil Ambani, a frequent presence on Forbes’ “richest” lists, whose family tops the 2017 list of Asia’s richest families.

In his scathing attack on what he calls the “biggest ever” corruption scandal, Gandhi has alleged that India is overpaying for the Rafale jets and that the Modi administration is “lying” about a non-disclosure pact between the French and Indian governments. What’s more, the Congress party leader asserts, the 2015 deal was hurriedly changed by Modi to benefit “his friend” the Mumbai-based billionaire businessman. “The fun part is that the contract was given to Ambani-ji, who has never made an aeroplane in his life nor has he ever taken a contract for defence,” said Gandhi, ironically adding the honorific “ji” suffix to the 59-year-old businessman’s name for added effect...

But the new Rafale deal – which media estimated was worth $8.7 billion (7.8 billion euro) -- only involved the purchase of 36 Rafale jets. What’s more, all the 36 aircraft would be manufactured in France and in fly-away condition.

The intergovernmental agreement however stipulated that Dassault would have to “offset” 50 percent of the deal in India [emphasis added].

Offset clauses stipulate conditions on suppliers to make them spend a portion of the contract in a certain way. In the Rafale case, Dassault had to ensure that 50 percent of the estimated $8.7 billion price it was earning would be invested in the Indian defence system.

Exit HAL, enter Ambani

For the Indian side, the state-owned HAL, with its 78-year experience in defence manufacturing, would have been Dassault’s ideal partner in meeting its offset obligations.

But not long after the agreement was struck, the Indian public was in for another surprise: Dassault had chosen to partner with Ambani’s Reliance group – despite the fact that the company has no experience in the aeronautics, let alone military aviation, sector...
https://www.france24.com/en/20180829-india-france-rafale-jets-scandal-modi-corruption?ref=tw

Mark
Otttawa

 

[MarkOttawa]

US may accomodate India on S-400:

No decision on S-400 as US, India sign key defense agreement

NEW DELHI — The U.S. and India signed a critical defense information sharing agreement Wednesday that will allow each country greater access to each others' communications networks, but could not come to an agreement on India’s planned purchase of Russia’s S-400 air defense system.

Mattis and Minister of Defense Nirmala Sitharaman signed the Communications Compatibility and Security Agreement, or COMCASA, which in practical terms will improve information network access and sharing so that in future weapons acquisition, secure communications links common in U.S. weapons systems, such as Link 16 in U.S. jets, can be included. Until now, those tactical communications capabilities have not been included in India’s major weapons purchases.

The two sides also agreed to enhanced defense cooperation, to include joint exercises on India’s coast in 2019 and the establishment of a hotline between the U.S. and India.

Mattis and Sitharaman then joined Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and India’s minister of foreign affairs Sushma Swaraj to address Indian and U.S. media. The defense and diplomatic leaders said the agreements were the latest sign of a strengthened U.S.-India relationship, recently underscored through the U.S. renaming Pacific Command to Indo-Pacific Command.

But the two sides did not come to a resolution on one of the higher-visibility issues between the two sides, India’s planned purchase of five S-400 systems, in a deal worth an estimated $6 billion.

“There’s been no decision made,” Pompeo told reporters Wednesday after the agreement was signed.



But Pompeo seemed to suggest a waiver is possible.

“We do understand the history of India’s relationship with Russia and legacy systems. Our effort here, too, is not to penalize great strategic partners like India, a major defense partner,” Pompeo said. "The sanctions aren’t intended to adversely impact countries like India. They are intended to ... have an impact on the sanctioned country, which is Russia. And so we’ll work our way through the waiver decision as the days and weeks proceed, and we’ll do that alongside our partner India.”

COMCASA is one of four “foundational” agreements that intend to increase interoperability between the two militaries. It follows India’s signing of the Logistics Exchange Memorandum of Agreement in 2016 with former Defense Secretary Ash Carter. That agreement set terms for greater logistics support during port calls and exercises.
https://www.militarytimes.com/news/your-military/2018/09/06/no-decision-on-s-400-as-us-india-sign-key-defense-agreement/

Mark
Ottawa

 

[Dale Denton]

I've been trying to follow Indian military affairs, but some things are still a big question mark for me. Perhaps someone can enlighten me.

It seems that so much of their equipment is a mish-mash of different types and calibers, mostly foreign supplied. Seems like a logistical supply nightmare. Equipment from everywhere, is equipment uniformity a big issue for them?

Howcome India is not able to R&D their own equipment and supply their own kit? Their indigenous supply capability seems large enough to build anything.

With the dip into SSBNs and SSNs, is this where their fleet is going or just an expensive experiment?

What are some big issues you people have discovered?

 

[CBH99]

The problem with Indian military equipment supply has several angels to it...and I'm probably missing some here.


1.  A very inefficient government bureaucracy that can't seem to manage large scale defense contracts, or manage them consistently. 

They are truly the Canada of that part of the world.  They will set aside Billions of dollars for defense projects that they can't ever actually execute due to their own internal processes.


2.  Because they are a democracy, other political parties play dirty and use defense procurement as a weapon. 

Same as here.  (No politician would ever choose to buy a 25yo FA/18 over an F-22 for example, if it were available, from a capability perspective.  But they would use the optics of 'Canada buying an advanced warplane' as a never ending supply of talking points to challenge the current government, to make them look like they are wasting taxpayer dollars or becoming warmongers, etc.)


3.  Their own defense industry doesn't produce quality equipment. 

They openly acknowledge that their own defense industry cannot produce reliable rifles, personal gear, NVG equipment, etc.  Helicopters and aircraft manufactured there all TEND to foreign designs built under license, as their own designs tend to be very lacking.  (Capability and safety.)

A good example of this is their own version of the AK-47.  The changes they made had a negative impact on the weapon, and poor quality control has left the rifles very unreliable.  Their own fighter aircraft is in a similar boat -- poorly designed, noticeable quality control issues not just with the airframe manufacturing, but also with the radar, missiles, etc etc. 

Quality control is a consistent problem for them, in terms of their own manufacturing of equipment.  From clothing, to rifles, to jets, to helicopters.  Hence their recent drive to buy jets from the US and France, helicopters from the US, and set up - yet another - factory to build FOREIGN designs under license.  (Although even great foreign designs won't help them much if the quality control in their manufacturing is poor**)

https://blogs.timesofindia.indiatimes.com/shooting-straight/our-soldiers-need-better-rifles/


4.  Ignored and alienated from the west for decades.

For very poor reasons, justified by extremely short term thinking, we have chosen to supply India's neighbour & rival, Pakistan, for the past several decades.  Up until recently, we (ahem, sorry, the US) - provided Pakistan with annual military aid packages, which resulted in the Pakistani military flying F-16's and using an assortment of ant-tank missiles from the US & Europe.  Meanwhile, India had to rely on what it could get from Russia and China.

Pakistan has never been an ally of ours.  During the Afghanistan war, they were strategic in terms of their geography, the fact that many Afghans cross the border regularly and without checkpoints, and because of the immense cultural, family, and economic ties, Pakistani intelligence (ISI) has supported various rebel & terror groups inside of Afghanistan, while somewhat protecting NATO supply lines in Pakistan. 

Played both sides, openly, for almost 20yrs now.  Protect our supplies, in the condition we provide them with annual military aid (in the billions of dollars, mind you) -- while also using their intelligence agencies to assist enemy groups in Afghanistan.  Meanwhile, reaping the benefits of western military equipment & dollars.


India, their rival, in which they have a few territorial disagreements (Kashmir being an easy example) - was largely ignored by the west, despite it being geographically significant in the long term, and economically important in the long term also.  (2nd largest population in the world with a rapidly expanding middle class.) 

We allowed short term thinking to trump long term planning, and now we are waking up to the realization that we've ignored and alienated them for a long time from a military-alliance perspective, and now that China is the new big kid in town, we need to change the way we do things and cozy up to India.  Hence all of the recent "Oh hey, we'll actually move F-16 production to India..." types of talk.

Anyways, this last point of why their military seems to use a hodge-podge of military equipment.  Because they do. 

It isn't ideal for them, and they know it.  Hence trying to replace their fighter jet fleet with western jets, helicopter fleet with western machines, and recently making the moves to acquire M4's for their infantry units.  But until recently, they didn't have a choice but to either design & build local, or get what they could from Russia. 

 

[MarkOttawa]

CBH99: Pretty much spot on. Would just add that India, for very good and clear reasons, does not want to be overly reliant on one country (read US or Russia) for military equipment--esp. the US given the American penchant for trying to control the use of what they supply (see Pakistan's balancing between US and China).

Tous azimuts.

Mark
Ottawa

 

[MarkOttawa]

PM Modi's "Make-in-India" biting back:

India's Modi faces calls for resignation over French jet deal

NEW DELHI/PARIS (Reuters) - Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi faced calls for his resignation over allegations of corruption in a military jet deal with France after former French president Francois Hollande was quoted as saying New Delhi had influenced the choice of a local partner.

Indian political parties have been gunning for Modi over the 2016 purchase of 36 Rafale planes from Dassault Aviation estimated to be worth $8.7 billion, saying he had overpaid for the planes and had not been transparent.

In recent months, the opposition has questioned the government on the choice of billionaire Indian businessman Anil Ambani’s Reliance Defence as Dassault’s local partner instead of a state-run manufacturer with decades of experience.

On Friday, Hollande, who cleared the intergovernmental deal when he was in office, was quoted as saying New Delhi had put pressure on Dassault to choose Reliance.

“We had no choice. We took the interlocutor that was given to us,” he was reported as telling the French news service Mediapart, fueling a political storm in India.

Under Indian defense procurement rules, a foreign firm must invest at least 30 percent of the contract in India to help it build up its manufacturing base and wean off imports.

For that, the French firm picked Reliance and not Hindustan Aeronautics Limited, the state-run giant that has been producing planes for decades, most of them Russian under license.

“The PM personally negotiated and changed the Rafale deal behind closed doors. Thanks to François Hollande, we now know he personally delivered a deal worth billions of dollars to ...Anil Ambani,” Rahul Gandhi, the president of the main opposition Congress party, said in a tweet. “The PM has betrayed India.”

Modi, who stormed to power in 2014 promising to rid India of deep-seated corruption, had no “moral right” to remain in power after the revelations from Hollande, senior Congress leader Anand Sharma said.

Smaller parties also joined the attack on Modi who is already under pressure to shore up his political base ahead of a series of state elections this year followed by a national election in 2019...
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-dassault-india/indias-modi-faces-calls-for-resignation-over-french-jet-deal-idUSKCN1M208E

Mark
Ottawa

 

[MarkOttawa]

If US applies sanctions for buying Russian will put at real risk all the efforts over quite a few years to strengthen ties to India (as counter-weight to China, a bi-partisan policy!), esp. in defence field (see from 2014: "US Still Trying Furiously to Woo India https://cgai3ds.wordpress.com/2014/08/08/mark-collins-us-still-trying-furiously-to-woo-india/ ).

Indians have much pride and will respond badly to being pushed around; certainly will not give up tous azimuts defence purchases policy:

India approves S-400 buy from Russia, amid expectations for more bilateral deals

India has quietly approved a $5.43 billion program to buy five S-400 Triumf air defense systems from Russia, just a week before Russian President Vladimir Putin’s Oct. 5 visit to the country.

The program was approved earlier this week by the Indian government’s highest defense approval body, the Cabinet Committee on Security headed by Prime Minister Narendra Modi.

When asked about India’s decision in relation to U.S. objections over the purchase, a top Ministry of Defence official said: “We already have communicated our stand on the subject to Washington.”

A formal government-to-government contract is expected to be announced during the 19th India-Russia summit on Oct. 5.

“Apparently, the Indian defense establishment is convinced that S-400 Triumf system is ideally suited to fill a critical gap in our existing capabilities. That being the case, there is no reason for India to buckle under the U.S. pressure to roll back procurement of hardware from Russia,” said Amit Cowshish, a former former financial adviser on defense acquisition for the MoD.

U.S. embassy diplomats were unavailable for comment.

Indian defense forces have been apprehensive about the fate of armament supplies from Russia following U.S. sanctions on Russian entities under the Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act, or CAATSA...
https://www.defensenews.com/land/2018/09/28/india-approves-s-400-buy-from-russia-amid-expectations-for-more-bilateral-deals/

And also a US sanctions angle on the India/Iran front (two countries have good relations):

Exploring alternative oil supplies so ‘our friend’ India isn’t affected: US official on Iran sanctions
The US had said countries that continue to do business with Iran will be blocked from accessing the American banking and financial system.

With a tougher round of US sanctions on Iran coming into effect from November 4,a top Trump administration official said Washington recognises India’s need for significant oil imports and is having conversations to ensure there are alternative supplies of the fuel “so that our friend India’s economy is not adversely affected”.

Earlier this year, the US had withdrawn from the 2015 Iranian nuclear deal and reimposed a series of tough sanctions on Iran. While the first phase of sanctions is already in place, the sanctions would come into full force on November 4 and the US expects all countries, including India, to bring down their import of Iranian oil to zero by then.

The US has made it clear that any country that continues to do business with Iran will be blocked from accessing the American banking and financial system. However, the sanctions are not endorsed by the UN and it has been a traditional policy of India to enforce only UNSC-authorised sanctions. Though India, one of the biggest importers of Iranian oil, has already reduced its import, it has indicated that it is unlikely to go down to zero given its massive energy needs.

“The United States is consulting with all of its friends and partners to discuss the implementation of the sanctions after the snapback... we recognise India has a need for significant oil imports.Part of the conversation is how to ensure that there are alternative supplies of oil so that our friend India’s economy is not adversely affected,”principal deputy assistant secretary for the Bureau of South and Central Asia Region Alice Wells told PTI in New York.

She said Indian private sector firms are exploring new suppliers of crude oil and the conversation between the US and Indian experts continues on the implementation of the sanctions, adding that America looks forward to continuing what is a very constructive dialogue.

When asked about the impact of the US sanctions on projects such as the Chabahar project [port India is helping build on Iranian coast, see map here https://cgai3ds.wordpress.com/2016/05/24/mark-collins-indian-great-game-to-bounce-paks-in-afghanistan-take-that-dragon/ ),Wells said the issue of Chabahar is under close review. “We very much appreciate what India has done to provide both assistance to Afghanistan, including through using Chabahar Port for the delivery of wheat. We also very much appreciate what India has done to allow Afghanistan to diversify its trade relationships, and again Chabahar has played a role there. So those factors will certainly be taken under consideration,” she said.

The Chabahar port is being considered a gateway to golden opportunities for trade by India, Iran and Afghanistan with central Asian countries besides ramping up trade among the three countries...
https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/exploring-alternative-oil-supplies-so-our-friend-india-isn-t-affected-us-official-on-iran-sanctions/story-1GqtreNKNxRtVtIVJi9IaM.html

Mark
Ottawa

 

[MarkOttawa]

Further to above post, with Trump now threatening tariffs/trade war with India, that will only harden Indians' tous azimuts policy, esp. for defence acquisitions:

"Tariff King" India Wants Trade Deal With US To Keep Me "Happy":
Donald Trump described India as a "tariff king" as he reiterated his allegations that New Delhi has a high tariff rate on various American products

NEW DELHI: India wants to start trade talks with the US "immediately", US President Donald Trump said on Monday at a press conference to announce a trade deal struck between the United States, Mexico and Canada.

Slamming India for "high tariffs" on American products, Mr Trump said India wanted the trade deal primarily "to keep him happy", news agency PTI reported. He also listed out trade deals that are under negotiations, including with Japan, European Union, China and India.

The US President described India as a "tariff king" as he reiterated his allegations that New Delhi has a high tariff rate on various American products.

After he warned against imposing similar tariffs on import of Indian products, Mr Trump said Indian negotiators called him that they want to have a trade deal with the US.

The negotiations are being carried out by the US Trade Representatives Robert Lighthizer, PTI reported,

Last week, Mr Trump had said India wants to have a trade deal with the US because it does not want him to retaliate.

Donald Trump has often accused India of imposing 100 per cent tariffs on American products. "We have a country, take India. Good relationship. They want to make a deal now because they don't want me to do what I'm going to do, with I have to. So, they (Indians) call us. They didn't want to make a deal with anybody else," he had said...
https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/donald-trump-says-india-wants-to-start-trade-talks-with-us-immediately-news-agency-afp-1925242

Note this:

...
Moscow and Delhi will sign a deal worth more than $5 billion (4 billion pounds) on the delivery of Russian S-400 anti-aircraft missiles when President Vladimir Putin visits India later this week, Kremlin aide Yuri Ushakov said on Tuesday [Oct. 2]...
https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-russia-india-missiles/russia-india-to-sign-s-400-missile-deal-this-week-kremlin-idUKKCN1MC22E

Mark
Ottawa

 

[MarkOttawa]

Take that, PLA Navy (and PLA)!

India, UK to increase joint navy training

NEW DELHI: Enhancing their strategic relationship, India and the UK are planning to increase the joint training between their navies through carrier battle group operations. The UK has also offered to provide training to other Indian forces, including the army, which can be useful to

India in its “conflict” at the borders. The UK’s Permanent Secretary [= Canadian deputy minister] of Ministry of Defence, Stephen Lovegrove, in an exclusive interaction with ET said when he met his counterpart, Defence Secretary Sanjay Mitra, he discussed issues on training of Indian forces and carrier battle groups.

A carrier battle group consists of an aircraft carrier and its escorts, which together define the group. Without identifying any country, Lovegrove, who was on a visit to India last week, also said that the training being offered can be used in conflicts that India is involved in.

Lovegrove explained that Indian Navy and the Royal Navy are discussing cooperation on carrier battle groups. This is a prelude to the first deployment of UK’s latest aircraft carrier, the HMS Queen Elizabeth, in the Strait of Malacca.

“A new aircraft carrier the QueenElizabeth is in the US doing its sea trials and is having the first F-35s fly from it. That exemplifies what we are trying to achieve with India. Its first operational deployment will be through the Strait of Malacca in 2021 [emphasis added],” he said...

On the UK playing a greater role in the Indian Ocean Region, he said, “We have enduring interests in the region. We want to continue to play our part in maintaining security here...The Queen Elizabeth will also represent some of our commitment to our trading relations. Its important for us that the Indian Ocean and South China Sea remain open to trade, navigation.”

He added, “We also know that you have conflicts on your borders, which we want to assist in training some of your troops wiith. So we do some of that activity [emphasis added].”..
https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/defence/india-uk-to-increase-joint-navy-training/articleshow/66062268.cms

Mark
Ottawa

 

[MarkOttawa]

Note key roles of two former senior intelligence officials (one foreign [RAW], one domestic [IB] and focus on China:

Major Revamp Of India’s National Security Architecture

Three Deputy National Security Advisers. A Military Adviser. Reconstituted Strategic Policy Group. A dedicated think tank to monitor and assess China across the spectrum. Formation of Defence Planning Committee (DPC). Additional budget for the National Security Council Secretariat (NSCS). India’s national security architecture is being transformed to meet current and future challenges.

The changes—some announced, some shrouded in official secrecy—are outcomes of the review of the national security structure ordered by the Prime Minister’s Office (PMO) last year. Prime Minister Narendra Modi, sources say, felt there were too many silos in the system with no arrangement to take a comprehensive view on national security. The review, completed in mid-2018, has now led to these changes.

Appointment of two more deputy national security advisers, as opposed to just one in the earlier structure, is part of a major restructuring. Accordingly, former chief of the Research and Analysis Wing (R&AW) Rajinder Khanna will look after external and technical intelligence matters, Indian Foreign Service (IFS) officer, former Ambassador to Russia Pankaj Saran is entrusted with handling diplomatic affairs and RN Ravi, former Intelligence Bureau officer and interlocutor for Naga talks, has been assigned to oversee internal security matters. Ravi was Chairman of Joint Intelligence Committee (JIC) until last week, when he was re-designated Deputy National Security Adviser. Khanna and Saran were already Deputy NSAs [emphasis added].

The three Deputy NSAs will now widen the scope and responsibility of the National Security Council Secretariat (NSCS), which works directly under National Security Adviser (NSA) Ajit Doval, arguably Prime Minister Modi’s closest confidant on foreign and security policies. Doval, a former career intelligence officer—like Ravi and Khanna—has been NSA and Special Representative for talks with China since 2014. His remit has steadily increased since then and so has the budget of the NSCS. From a measly Rs 39.9 crore (actual expenditure) in 2016-17, its budget was increased to Rs 333.58 crore in 2017-18 although it could only spend Rs 168 crore at the end of the financial year 2017-18. However, for the current financial year (2018-19) it has again been allotted Rs 303.83 crore. With increase in its mandate, the NSCS will likely need more funds in coming years.

Along with the division of responsibility in the NSCS, the government has also reconstituted the Strategic Policy Group (SPG), a body that has existed since 1999 (appointed by the Vajpayee government a month before the Kargil conflict began). It was earlier headed by the Cabinet Secretary. In a partial but significant amendment to the original Office Memorandum, the SPG will now be led by the NSA, with the Cabinet Secretary and Vice-Chairman of NITI Aayog becoming members of the group. Like in its earlier avatar, it will also have the three service chiefs, the intelligence chiefs, secretaries of defence, home, finance, atomic energy, defence research and development, revenue, space, and governor of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) as members. The NSA will have the power to co-opt any other official and department as and when needed while the Cabinet Secretary will ensure coordination and implementation of decisions taken by the SPG.

In another concurrent development, a National Security Strategy document is now ready to be presented for discussion at the highest level. Those in the know say at least three versions of a National Security Strategy have been attempted in the past but none of them was either approved or released for public consumption. Despite some indications earlier this year that the Modi government may put out some elements of the National Security Strategy in the public domain, sources say, the Prime Minister has now ruled against making any part of the document public.

Another development that has largely gone unnoticed is the formation of a China-specific, MEA-run and funded think tank. Called the Centre for Contemporary China Studies (CCCS), the new entity will only study China from an Indian point of view. Manned by serving officers drawn from the MEA, the three armed forces, the Intelligence Bureau, the Research and Analysis Wing (RAW), the Indo-Tibetan Border Police (ITBP) and other relevant ministries and departments, CCCS will prepare reports and undertake specific studies on China at the behest of different government departments to provide real-time policy inputs to the decision-makers dealing with China [emphasis added]. So, for instance, the CCCS can be asked to provide quick inputs by the Commerce Ministry on the impact of U.S. trade sanctions against China and the likely advantage that can accrue to India. Or recommend a future course of action in India’s (largely positive) relationship with North Korea post the Trump-Kim summit. The CCCS’ governing body is headed by the External Affairs Minister and the NSA is the deputy chairman.

Coupled with the formation of the Defence Planning Committee (DPC) earlier this year, and the recent approval given by the Prime Minister to formation of three tri-services agencies—to create a join structure for cyber, space and special operations across the three armed forces—the new focus on restructuring the national security architecture has never been more intense. Like the SPG and NSCS, the DPC is headed by NSA Doval, inviting charges of too much concentration of power in the hands of one person. No matter what critics say, recent decisions are a clear indication that the Prime Minister has entrusted his NSA to evolve a comprehensive roadmap and get it implemented...
https://sniwire.com/defence-security/major-revamp-of-indias-national-security-architecture/

Mark
Ottawa

 

[MarkOttawa]

Indian Rafale buy OK'd:

India court rejects challenge to Dassault jet deal; win for Modi

India’s top court rejected petitions on Friday seeking an investigation of fighter jet deal worth about $8.7 billion with France’s Dassault Aviation (AVMD.PA), handing a political victory to the ruling party months before a general election.

The ruling is a setback for the opposition Congress party, which had accused Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government of corruption in the deal to buy 36 Rafale planes and a decision to pick Reliance Defence as a domestic partner.

Reliance, owned by billionaire Anil Ambani, has no aeronautical expertise and was chosen ahead of state-run Hindustan Aeronautics, which has a history of making planes.

Dassault said in October it picked Reliance as a partner on its own, countering a French online media report that said the Indian government insisted on the firm as a condition of the contract...
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-india-dassault/india-court-rejects-challenge-to-dassault-jet-deal-win-for-modi-idUSKBN1OD0DP

Mark
Ottawa

 

[MarkOttawa]

US helping India to outflank Pakistan via Iran to trade with Afghanistan:

India Takes Over Iran's Chabahar Port

India has formally taken over operations at Iran’s strategic Chabahar Port. According to the government of India, India Ports Global Chabahar Free Zone (IPGCFZ) a special purpose vehicle (SPV) of Indian Ports Global (IPGL) in Iran has taken over interim operation of the Chabahar Port with effect from December 24.

Representatives from India, Iran, and Afghanistan met in Tehran to formally hand over control to IPGL.

Accoding to IRNA news agency, IPGL had been granted the lease for “a temporary period of 18 months and a ten-year period afterwards.” IPGL’s management would include “loading and unloading, supplying equipment and marketing.”

The U.S. State Department in November exempted the Chabahar Port project from sanctions in recognition of its importance to landlocked Afghanistan.

A memorandum of understanding (MoU) between  Indian Railway Construction Company Limited (IRCON) and Construction, Development of Transport and Infrastructure Company (CDTIC) of Iran for construction of Chabahar-Zahedan rail project was signed during PM’s visit to Iran on 23 May 2016.

As per the Joint Statement released by Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) dated 17 February 2018 during Iranian President’s visit to India (15-17 February 2018), India conveyed its readiness to support the development of Chabahar- Zahedan Rail line.

https://www.marinelink.com/news/india-takes-irans-chabahar-port-461325

Mark
Ottawa

 

[MarkOttawa]

Great video of massed Indian military bands playing pipes and drums outside the Red Fort in Old Delhi (I think the blue uniforms might be air force--cf. RCAF kilt--note the Highland Camels in the background on the road outside the fort). Whole lot of swagger and hip-swiveling:
https://youtu.be/F5d7b240RrU

Mark
Ottawa

 

[Cloud Cover]

Sounds like 2000 taxi's honking in unison.

 

[MarkOttawa]

India and France fairly close now, and France taking a very active military interest in Indo-Pacific:

India, France Hold Large Naval Warfare Exercise Involving 2 Aircraft Carriers
This year’s iteration of the Varuna exercise will include an air combat drill with carrier-based Indian and French fighter jets.

The Indian and French navies began the 17th edition of their annually-held bilateral naval warfare exercise, designated Varuna 19.1/19.2, in the Arabian Sea off the coast of Goa on May 1.

Notably, this year’s iteration of the naval warfare exercise will see the participation of two aircraft carriers — the flagship of the French Navy, the nuclear-powered flattop FNS Charles de Gaulle, as well as the Indian Navy’s Kiev-class aircraft carrier INS Vikramaditya — and include air combat drills by Indian and French carrier-based fighter jets.

Varuna 19.1 will be conducted in two phases. According to the Indian Ministry of Defense (MoD), the harbor phase in Goa will see “cross-visits, professional interactions and discussions and sports events.” The sea phase will include “various exercises across the spectrum of maritime operations.” As in previous years, the exercise will include fleet air defense and anti-submarine warfare drills.

The current mainstay of Indian naval aviation, Russian-made MiG-29K Fulcrum fighter jets, are set to face off with the naval version of the Dassault Rafale twin-engine, fourth generation multirole fighter in various air combat exercises that will not only include simulated attacks on ships but also dog fights between the Indian and French aircraft.

“The Varuna exercise aims at developing interoperability between the two navies and fostering mutual cooperation by learning from each other’s best practices to conduct joint operations,” the Indian MoD said in a press statement. “The exercise underscores the shared interests and commitment of both nations in promoting maritime security.”

The participation of the INS Vikramaditya is especially noteworthy as it comes days after an Indian Navy officer died fighting a fire caused by a blast in a steam pipe in the engine room aboard the carrier.

Other naval assets participating on the Indian side include the Delhi-class guided-missile destroyer INS Mumbai, the Teg-class frigate INS Tarkash, the Shishumar-class diesel-electric submarine INS Shankul, and the Deepak-class fleet tanker, INS Deepak.

The French flotilla comprises the lead ship of the Horizon-class of anti-air warfare frigate FNS Forbin, the Aquitaine-class multi-purpose frigate FNS Provence, the anti-submarine frigate Latouche-Tréville, the tanker FNS Marne, and a Rubis-class nuclear attack submarine.

The first part of the exercise is scheduled for 10 days and will conclude on May 10. The second part, Varuna 19.2., will take place at the end of May in Djibouti on the Horn of Africa, where the French military operates a major base [emphasis added].

Last year’s Varuna exercise saw the first participation of the Scorpene-class (Kalvari-class) diesel-electric attack submarines (SSK) INS Kalvari, commissioned in December 2017. The 2018 emphasis lay on anti-submarine warfare operations and fleet air defense. The FNS Charles de Gaulle last participated in the bilateral Indo-French exercise in 2017.
https://thediplomat.com/2019/05/india-france-hold-large-naval-warfare-exercise-involving-2-aircraft-carriers/

Mark
Ottawa

 

[MarkOttawa]

Gerald Butts doing his best to keep Canadian relations with India screwed up and in the deep freeze:

Trudeau’s confidante takes a dig at Indian govt
This scathing statement is in the forthcoming book, Trudeau: The Education of a Prime Minister, written by senior Canadian journalist John Ivison.

Toronto in an astonishing attack that will not help heal fraught ties between India and Canada, the former top advisor to the North American nation’s Prime Minister has accused the Indian Government of sabotaging Justin Trudeau’s visit to India in February 2018 to favour his political opponents.

Gerald Butts, who was Trudeau’s confidant and Principal Secretary to the Canadian PM till he resigned earlier this year, was quoted as saying, “We walked into a buzzsaw — (Narendra) Modi and his government were out to screw us and were throwing tacks under our tires to help Canadian conservatives, who did a good job of embarrassing us [emphasis added].”

This scathing statement is in the forthcoming book, Trudeau: The Education of a Prime Minister, written by senior Canadian journalist John Ivison. The author confirmed to the Hindustan Times that Butts’ comment came during an interview.

Indian diplomats didn’t comment on the matter because it is so politically charged and the Canadian Government has yet to respond to questions from HT on its stand on the incendiary remark from Butts.

Trudeau’s visit to India in February last year was mocked globally, particularly for his over-the-top Indian costumes. But the most troubling aspect was the presence of a person who was once convicted for the attempted assassination of a visiting Minister from Punjab in 1986, at an official reception in Mumbai during Trudeau’s visit . That person, Jaspal Atwal, appeared in a photograph with the PM’s wife and caused a firestorm in Canada. Relations between the two countries suffered as the then Canadian National Security Advisor Daniel Jean suggested to select Canadian media that “rogue elements” in the Indian establishment used Atwal to subvert the trip.

Butts resigned from his post in the PMO earlier this year during a political crisis that hit Trudeau’s Government, and led to the departure of two Cabinet Ministers who alleged that undue pressure was brought by the PMO to go easy on the multinational companu SNC Lavalin, which was facing a bribery investigation. Recently, however, Butts was reinstated in the ruling Liberal Party, to marshal Trudeau’s campaign for re-election, as Federal polls are due in late October.

Relations between India and Canada have come to a standstill since Trudeau’s visit, with no Ministers on either side undertaking a bilateral visit [emphasis added].

There was no immediate comment by Indian officials.
https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/trudeau-s-confidante-takes-a-dig-at-indian-govt/story-6Sv2kW1XQOZjV6GoKb51AL.html

Maybe somebody from Global Affairs Canada should call Butts and suggest, at PMO's behest, that he check in with them before further messing up relations with Modi and India

Mark
Ottawa

 

[MarkOttawa]

This is huge move by PM Modi which will give great satisfaction to his vast Hindu-nationalist support base, scare Indian Muslims and make relations with Pakistan even more awful:

India scraps special status for Kashmir in step Pakistan calls illegal

India on Monday [Aug. 5] revoked the special status of Kashmir, the Himalayan region that has long been a flashpoint in ties with neighboring Pakistan, as it moves to fully integrate its only Muslim-majority region with the rest of the country.

In the most far-reaching political move in one of the world’s most militarized regions in nearly seven decades, India said it would scrap a constitutional provision that allows its state of Jammu and Kashmir to make its own laws.

“The entire constitution will be applicable to Jammu and Kashmir,” Interior Minister Amit Shah told parliament, as opposition lawmakers voiced loud protests against the repeal.

The government also lifted a ban on property purchases by non-residents, opening the way for Indians to invest and settle there, just as they can elsewhere in India, although the measure is likely to provoke a backlash in the region.

Pakistan, which also claims Kashmir, said it strongly condemned the decision, which is bound to further strain ties between the nuclear-armed rivals.

“As the party to this international dispute, Pakistan will exercise all possible options to counter the illegal steps,” its foreign ministry said in a statement.

India and Pakistan have fought two of their three wars over Kashmir, convulsed by a nearly 30-year armed revolt in which tens of thousands of people have died, with hundreds of thousands of Indian troops deployed to quell it.

India blames that rebellion on Pakistan, which denies the accusation, saying that it backs the right to self-determination for Kashmir.

There were no immediate details of Kashmiris’ reaction to the decisions by New Delhi.

Hours earlier the Indian government launched a security crackdown in the region, arresting regional leaders and suspending telephone and internet services and restricting public movement in the main city of Srinagar [emphasis added].

Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) had pushed for radical political change in Kashmir even before he won re-election in May, saying its laws hindered integration with the rest of India.

“Politically, it’s advantage BJP,” said Happymon Jacob, a professor at Jawaharlal Nehru University in the Indian capital.

“The scrapping of Article 370 of the constitution is likely to set off a slew of political, constitutional and legal battles, not to speak of the battles on the streets of Kashmir.”
MUSCULAR APPROACH

Monday’s move reflects Modi’s muscular approach to national security. In February, he ordered war planes into Pakistan after a militant group based there claimed responsibility for a deadly attack on a military convoy in Kashmir.

That step, in turn, prompted a retaliatory raid by Pakistan.

Introduced decades ago, the constitutional provisions reserved government jobs and college places for Kashmir’s residents, among other limits aiming to keep people from other parts of the country from overrunning the state.

The government has also decided to split the state into two federal territories, one formed by Jammu and Kashmir, and the other consisting of the enclave of Ladakh [with disputed Himalayan border with China], citing internal security considerations [emphasis added].

“Today marks the darkest day in Indian democracy,” said one of the leaders placed under house arrest, Mehbooba Mufti, a former chief minister of Jammu and Kashmir.

“It will have catastrophic consequences for the subcontinent,” she said in a post on Twitter.

India’s interior ministry ordered all states to put security forces on “maximum alert” to maintain public order and quash the spread of any rumors.

Ram Madhav, general secretary of Modi’s BJP, hailed the government’s actions as ushering in a “glorious day”. In Modi’s western home state of Gujarat, people shouted slogans of support on the streets.

In Pakistani-controlled areas of the region, however, there was anger at India, with protests extending to the capital, Islamabad and the southern commercial center of Karachi.

In Muzaffarabad, 45 km (28 miles) from the two countries’ contested border, dozens of protesters held black flags and burnt car tyres, chanting “Down with India”.

Tension had risen in Kashmir since Friday, when Indian officials issued an alert over possible militant attacks by Pakistan-based groups. Pakistan rejected those assertions, but thousands of alarmed Indians left the region over the weekend.
https://www.reuters.com/article/SOMNIA-idUSKCN1UV0EA?il=0

Plus (Brits have a lot to answer for in Mountbatten's precipitous 1947 bug-out from the Raj and rapid partition into India and Pakistan):

Factbox: Kashmir's history: India's revoking of special status in context
https://www.reuters.com/article/SOMNIA-idUSKCN1UV0RK?il=0

Mark
Ottawa

 

[Cloud Cover]

Delhi control. We have a problem ...

India loses control over unmanned moon lander.

https://www.google.ca/amp/s/www.cbc.ca/amp/1.5274227

Maybe reset the meter?

 

[MarkOttawa]

As de Gaulle used to put it, "tous azimuts"--Americans have been deluding themselves for quite some time that they can turn India into a virtual US ally to counter-balance China:

Official: India Seeking ‘Greater Customization’ of its Future Alliances
[not "official"--the external affairs minister, the Indians still using that good old word]

Washington and New Delhi, “need to press the refresh button” in building a relationship for the future based on new global realities, India’s minister of external affairs said Wednesday.

Speaking at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, D.C., Subrahmanyam Jaishankar, said, for India this means being able to engage China and Russia, while also conducting productive meetings between its foreign and defense minister and the American secretaries of state over common issues.

“The game has become one of positioning,” he said and finding ways to cooperate on broad issues from maritime security to counterterrorism to climate change; and it is something not peculiar to India.

India wants to “reach out in as many directions as possible,” he said [emphasis added].

As an example of that, he said India’s relations with Iran are far different than those between Washington and Tehran. India needs “affordable predictable access to energy,” which its agreements with Iran and other Middle East nations provide, he said. To ensure the flow of energy for its industries, India has sent its navy into the Straits of Hormuz to show its concerns to all parties in the Persian Gulf. At the same time, India also “operates a port in that country that services Afghanistan,” important for that land-locked country’s access to materials. On the other hand, the United States has imposed tough sanctions on Iran and also on nations trading with Iran.

A similar divide between Washington and New Delhi is occurring over India’s purchase of the Russian-built S400 air defense system. When Turkey, a NATO ally, bought the same system, the United States wrote it out of the F-35 program as a buyer and parts manufacturer.

Jaishankar said, “India has made a decision. …We have discussed this with the U.S. government,” explaining the move but went no farther in describing the administration’s response.

Earlier, he cited the Malabar maritime exercise as an example of India working with the United States and Japan on Indian Ocean security and the successful discussion between foreign ministers of India, Japan and Australia with the American secretary of state over regional security issues, particularly China’s assertiveness.

“These are the kinds of situations I spoke about” in describing these shifting coalitions.

On Afghanistan, Jaishankar said the United States recently has been consulting more with India, and New Delhi has been talking with Russia and China on the progress of peace negotiations to end the decades-long conflict. “We see the American dilemma” after 18 years of war. “We also recognize the American achievement at great cost to themselves.”

He added, those achievements “are not small ones” that benefit the Afghans and “need to be protected” when negotiations with the Taliban resume.

Jaishankar described this diplomatic approach as “greater customization” and several times during his remarks and in answer to questions, he used the word “frenemies” to describe these ad-hoc coalitions. He noted these short-term relationships are growing because some nations believe “alliances are burdensome.”

All these changes are taking place because the promise of globalization and technology as being key to the future is being challenged as is rules-based order dating to the end of World War II, he said.

“Things are happening beyond” the scope of established institutions like the United Nations and World Bank that challenge these institutions’ legitimacy and vitality in an environment where the behavior of China and the United States “will change the world” but along the bipolar split of the Cold War.

Because of this, there are a host of new players, such as India and Brazil, who “demand a larger voice.” Later, he suggested making India a permanent member of the Security Council as a recognition of its population size and strength of its economy.

Jaishankar described these changes as being similar to “playing Chinese Checkers with many more participants” while also debating the rules of the game. The result is the “entrenched order is open to more players.”
https://news.usni.org/2019/10/01/official-india-seeking-greater-customization-of-its-future-alliances

Mark
Ottawa