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Hitchens defends the war in Iraq

mdh

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I thought this was an excellent piece by Christopher Hitchens on the war in Iraq

mdh

A War to Be Proud Of
From the September 5 / September 12, 2005 issue: The case for overthrowing Saddam was unimpeachable. Why, then, is the administration tongue-tied?
by Christopher Hitchens
09/05/2005, Volume 010, Issue 47

LET ME BEGIN WITH A simple sentence that, even as I write it, appears less than Swiftian in the modesty of its proposal: "Prison conditions at Abu Ghraib have improved markedly and dramatically since the arrival of Coalition troops in Baghdad."

I could undertake to defend that statement against any member of Human Rights Watch or Amnesty International, and I know in advance that none of them could challenge it, let alone negate it. Before March 2003, Abu Ghraib was an abattoir, a torture chamber, and a concentration camp. Now, and not without reason, it is an international byword for Yankee imperialism and sadism. Yet the improvement is still, unarguably, the difference between night and day. How is it possible that the advocates of a post-Saddam Iraq have been placed on the defensive in this manner? And where should one begin?

I once tried to calculate how long the post-Cold War liberal Utopia had actually lasted. Whether you chose to date its inception from the fall of the Berlin Wall in November 1989, or the death of Nicolae Ceausescu in late December of the same year, or the release of Nelson Mandela from prison, or the referendum defeat suffered by Augusto Pinochet (or indeed from the publication of Francis Fukuyama's book about the "end of history" and the unarguable triumph of market liberal pluralism), it was an epoch that in retrospect was over before it began. By the middle of 1990, Saddam Hussein had abolished Kuwait and Slobodan Milosevic was attempting to erase the identity and the existence of Bosnia. It turned out that we had not by any means escaped the reach of atavistic, aggressive, expansionist, and totalitarian ideology. Proving the same point in another way, and within approximately the same period, the theocratic dictator of Iran had publicly claimed the right to offer money in his own name for the suborning of the murder of a novelist living in London, and the génocidaire faction in Rwanda had decided that it could probably get away with putting its long-fantasized plan of mass murder into operation.

One is not mentioning these apparently discrepant crimes and nightmares as a random or unsorted list. Khomeini, for example, was attempting to compensate for the humiliation of the peace agreement he had been compelled to sign with Saddam Hussein. And Saddam Hussein needed to make up the loss, of prestige and income, that he had himself suffered in the very same war. Milosevic (anticipating Putin, as it now seems to me, and perhaps Beijing also) was riding a mutation of socialist nationalism into national socialism. It was to be noticed in all cases that the aggressors, whether they were killing Muslims, or exalting Islam, or just killing their neighbors, shared a deep and abiding hatred of the United States.

The balance sheet of the Iraq war, if it is to be seriously drawn up, must also involve a confrontation with at least this much of recent history. Was the Bush administration right to leave--actually to confirm--Saddam Hussein in power after his eviction from Kuwait in 1991? Was James Baker correct to say, in his delightfully folksy manner, that the United States did not "have a dog in the fight" that involved ethnic cleansing for the mad dream of a Greater Serbia? Was the Clinton administration prudent in its retreat from Somalia, or wise in its opposition to the U.N. resolution that called for a preemptive strengthening of the U.N. forces in Rwanda?

I know hardly anybody who comes out of this examination with complete credit. There were neoconservatives who jeered at Rushdie in 1989 and who couldn't see the point when Sarajevo faced obliteration in 1992. There were leftist humanitarians and radicals who rallied to Rushdie and called for solidarity with Bosnia, but who--perhaps because of a bad conscience about Palestine--couldn't face a confrontation with Saddam Hussein even when he annexed a neighbor state that was a full member of the Arab League and of the U.N. (I suppose I have to admit that I was for a time a member of that second group.) But there were consistencies, too. French statecraft, for example, was uniformly hostile to any resistance to any aggression, and Paris even sent troops to rescue its filthy clientele in Rwanda. And some on the hard left and the brute right were also opposed to any exercise, for any reason, of American military force.

The only speech by any statesman that can bear reprinting from that low, dishonest decade came from Tony Blair when he spoke in Chicago in 1999. Welcoming the defeat and overthrow of Milosevic after the Kosovo intervention, he warned against any self-satisfaction and drew attention to an inescapable confrontation that was coming with Saddam Hussein. So far from being an American "poodle," as his taunting and ignorant foes like to sneer, Blair had in fact leaned on Clinton over Kosovo and was insisting on the importance of Iraq while George Bush was still an isolationist governor of Texas.

Notwithstanding this prescience and principle on his part, one still cannot read the journals of the 2000/2001 millennium without the feeling that one is revisiting a hopelessly somnambulist relative in a neglected home. I am one of those who believe, uncynically, that Osama bin Laden did us all a service (and holy war a great disservice) by his mad decision to assault the American homeland four years ago. Had he not made this world-historical mistake, we would have been able to add a Talibanized and nuclear-armed Pakistan to our list of the threats we failed to recognize in time. (This threat still exists, but it is no longer so casually overlooked.)

The subsequent liberation of Pakistan's theocratic colony in Afghanistan, and the so-far decisive eviction and defeat of its bin Ladenist guests, was only a reprisal. It took care of the last attack. But what about the next one? For anyone with eyes to see, there was only one other state that combined the latent and the blatant definitions of both "rogue" and "failed." This state--Saddam's ruined and tortured and collapsing Iraq--had also met all the conditions under which a country may be deemed to have sacrificed its own legal sovereignty. To recapitulate: It had invaded its neighbors, committed genocide on its own soil, harbored and nurtured international thugs and killers, and flouted every provision of the Non-Proliferation Treaty. The United Nations, in this crisis, faced with regular insult to its own resolutions and its own character, had managed to set up a system of sanctions-based mutual corruption. In May 2003, had things gone on as they had been going, Saddam Hussein would have been due to fill Iraq's slot as chair of the U.N. Conference on Disarmament. Meanwhile, every species of gangster from the hero of the Achille Lauro hijacking to Abu Musab al Zarqawi was finding hospitality under Saddam's crumbling roof.

One might have thought, therefore, that Bush and Blair's decision to put an end at last to this intolerable state of affairs would be hailed, not just as a belated vindication of long-ignored U.N. resolutions but as some corrective to the decade of shame and inaction that had just passed in Bosnia and Rwanda. But such is not the case. An apparent consensus exists, among millions of people in Europe and America, that the whole operation for the demilitarization of Iraq, and the salvage of its traumatized society, was at best a false pretense and at worst an unprovoked aggression. How can this possibly be?

THERE IS, first, the problem of humorless and pseudo-legalistic literalism. In Saki's short story The Lumber Room, the naughty but clever child Nicholas, who has actually placed a frog in his morning bread-and-milk, rejoices in his triumph over the adults who don't credit this excuse for not eating his healthful dish:

"You said there couldn't possibly be a frog in my bread-and-milk; there was a frog in my bread-and-milk," he repeated, with the insistence of a skilled tactician who does not intend to shift from favorable ground.
Childishness is one thing--those of us who grew up on this wonderful Edwardian author were always happy to see the grown-ups and governesses discomfited. But puerility in adults is quite another thing, and considerably less charming. "You said there were WMDs in Iraq and that Saddam had friends in al Qaeda. . . . Blah, blah, pants on fire." I have had many opportunities to tire of this mantra. It takes ten seconds to intone the said mantra. It would take me, on my most eloquent C-SPAN day, at the very least five minutes to say that Abdul Rahman Yasin, who mixed the chemicals for the World Trade Center attack in 1993, subsequently sought and found refuge in Baghdad; that Dr. Mahdi Obeidi, Saddam's senior physicist, was able to lead American soldiers to nuclear centrifuge parts and a blueprint for a complete centrifuge (the crown jewel of nuclear physics) buried on the orders of Qusay Hussein; that Saddam's agents were in Damascus as late as February 2003, negotiating to purchase missiles off the shelf from North Korea; or that Rolf Ekeus, the great Swedish socialist who founded the inspection process in Iraq after 1991, has told me for the record that he was offered a $2 million bribe in a face-to-face meeting with Tariq Aziz. And these eye-catching examples would by no means exhaust my repertoire, or empty my quiver. Yes, it must be admitted that Bush and Blair made a hash of a good case, largely because they preferred to scare people rather than enlighten them or reason with them. Still, the only real strategy of deception has come from those who believe, or pretend, that Saddam Hussein was no problem.

I have a ready answer to those who accuse me of being an agent and tool of the Bush-Cheney administration (which is the nicest thing that my enemies can find to say). Attempting a little levity, I respond that I could stay at home if the authorities could bother to make their own case, but that I meanwhile am a prisoner of what I actually do know about the permanent hell, and the permanent threat, of the Saddam regime. However, having debated almost all of the spokespeople for the antiwar faction, both the sane and the deranged, I was recently asked a question that I was temporarily unable to answer. "If what you claim is true," the honest citizen at this meeting politely asked me, "how come the White House hasn't told us?"

I do in fact know the answer to this question. So deep and bitter is the split within official Washington, most especially between the Defense Department and the CIA, that any claim made by the former has been undermined by leaks from the latter. (The latter being those who maintained, with a combination of dogmatism and cowardice not seen since Lincoln had to fire General McClellan, that Saddam Hussein was both a "secular" actor and--this is the really rich bit--a rational and calculating one.)

There's no cure for that illusion, but the resulting bureaucratic chaos and unease has cornered the president into his current fallback upon platitude and hollowness. It has also induced him to give hostages to fortune. The claim that if we fight fundamentalism "over there" we won't have to confront it "over here" is not just a standing invitation for disproof by the next suicide-maniac in London or Chicago, but a coded appeal to provincial and isolationist opinion in the United States. Surely the elementary lesson of the grim anniversary that will shortly be upon us is that American civilians are as near to the front line as American soldiers.

It is exactly this point that makes nonsense of the sob-sister tripe pumped out by the Cindy Sheehan circus and its surrogates. But in reply, why bother to call a struggle "global" if you then try to localize it? Just say plainly that we shall fight them everywhere they show themselves, and fight them on principle as well as in practice, and get ready to warn people that Nigeria is very probably the next target of the jihadists. The peaceniks love to ask: When and where will it all end? The answer is easy: It will end with the surrender or defeat of one of the contending parties. Should I add that I am certain which party that ought to be? Defeat is just about imaginable, though the mathematics and the algebra tell heavily against the holy warriors. Surrender to such a foe, after only four years of combat, is not even worthy of consideration.

Antaeus was able to draw strength from the earth every time an antagonist wrestled him to the ground. A reverse mythology has been permitted to take hold in the present case, where bad news is deemed to be bad news only for regime-change. Anyone with the smallest knowledge of Iraq knows that its society and infrastructure and institutions have been appallingly maimed and beggared by three decades of war and fascism (and the "divide-and-rule" tactics by which Saddam maintained his own tribal minority of the Sunni minority in power). In logic and morality, one must therefore compare the current state of the country with the likely or probable state of it had Saddam and his sons been allowed to go on ruling.

At once, one sees that all the alternatives would have been infinitely worse, and would most likely have led to an implosion--as well as opportunistic invasions from Iran and Turkey and Saudi Arabia, on behalf of their respective interests or confessional clienteles. This would in turn have necessitated a more costly and bloody intervention by some kind of coalition, much too late and on even worse terms and conditions. This is the lesson of Bosnia and Rwanda yesterday, and of Darfur today. When I have made this point in public, I have never had anyone offer an answer to it. A broken Iraq was in our future no matter what, and was a responsibility (somewhat conditioned by our past blunders) that no decent person could shirk. The only unthinkable policy was one of abstention.

Two pieces of good fortune still attend those of us who go out on the road for this urgent and worthy cause. The first is contingent: There are an astounding number of plain frauds and charlatans (to phrase it at its highest) in charge of the propaganda of the other side. Just to tell off the names is to frighten children more than Saki ever could: Michael Moore, George Galloway, Jacques Chirac, Tim Robbins, Richard Clarke, Joseph Wilson . . . a roster of gargoyles that would send Ripley himself into early retirement. Some of these characters are flippant, and make heavy jokes about Halliburton, and some disdain to conceal their sympathy for the opposite side. So that's easy enough.

The second bit of luck is a certain fiber displayed by a huge number of anonymous Americans. Faced with a constant drizzle of bad news and purposely demoralizing commentary, millions of people stick out their jaws and hang tight. I am no fan of populism, but I surmise that these citizens are clear on the main point: It is out of the question--plainly and absolutely out of the question--that we should surrender the keystone state of the Middle East to a rotten, murderous alliance between Baathists and bin Ladenists. When they hear the fatuous insinuation that this alliance has only been created by the resistance to it, voters know in their intestines that those who say so are soft on crime and soft on fascism. The more temperate anti-warriors, such as Mark Danner and Harold Meyerson, like to employ the term "a war of choice." One should have no problem in accepting this concept. As they cannot and do not deny, there was going to be another round with Saddam Hussein no matter what. To whom, then, should the "choice" of time and place have fallen? The clear implication of the antichoice faction--if I may so dub them--is that this decision should have been left up to Saddam Hussein. As so often before . . .

DOES THE PRESIDENT deserve the benefit of the reserve of fortitude that I just mentioned? Only just, if at all. We need not argue about the failures and the mistakes and even the crimes, because these in some ways argue themselves. But a positive accounting could be offered without braggartry, and would include:

(1) The overthrow of Talibanism and Baathism, and the exposure of many highly suggestive links between the two elements of this Hitler-Stalin pact. Abu Musab al Zarqawi, who moved from Afghanistan to Iraq before the coalition intervention, has even gone to the trouble of naming his organization al Qaeda in Mesopotamia.

(2) The subsequent capitulation of Qaddafi's Libya in point of weapons of mass destruction--a capitulation that was offered not to Kofi Annan or the E.U. but to Blair and Bush.

(3) The consequent unmasking of the A.Q. Khan network for the illicit transfer of nuclear technology to Libya, Iran, and North Korea.

(4) The agreement by the United Nations that its own reform is necessary and overdue, and the unmasking of a quasi-criminal network within its elite.

(5) The craven admission by President Chirac and Chancellor Schröder, when confronted with irrefutable evidence of cheating and concealment, respecting solemn treaties, on the part of Iran, that not even this will alter their commitment to neutralism. (One had already suspected as much in the Iraqi case.)

(6) The ability to certify Iraq as actually disarmed, rather than accept the word of a psychopathic autocrat.

(7) The immense gains made by the largest stateless minority in the region--the Kurds--and the spread of this example to other states.

(8 The related encouragement of democratic and civil society movements in Egypt, Syria, and most notably Lebanon, which has regained a version of its autonomy.

(9) The violent and ignominious death of thousands of bin Ladenist infiltrators into Iraq and Afghanistan, and the real prospect of greatly enlarging this number.

(10) The training and hardening of many thousands of American servicemen and women in a battle against the forces of nihilism and absolutism, which training and hardening will surely be of great use in future combat.

It would be admirable if the president could manage to make such a presentation. It would also be welcome if he and his deputies adopted a clear attitude toward the war within the war: in other words, stated plainly, that the secular and pluralist forces within Afghan and Iraqi society, while they are not our clients, can in no circumstance be allowed to wonder which outcome we favor.

The great point about Blair's 1999 speech was that it asserted the obvious. Coexistence with aggressive regimes or expansionist, theocratic, and totalitarian ideologies is not in fact possible. One should welcome this conclusion for the additional reason that such coexistence is not desirable, either. If the great effort to remake Iraq as a demilitarized federal and secular democracy should fail or be defeated, I shall lose sleep for the rest of my life in reproaching myself for doing too little. But at least I shall have the comfort of not having offered, so far as I can recall, any word or deed that contributed to a defeat.

Christopher Hitchens is a columnist for Vanity Fair. His most recent book is Thomas Jefferson: Author of America. A recent essay of his appears in the collection A Matter of Principle: Humanitarian Arguments for War in Iraq, newly published by the University of California Press.

 
"Coexistence with aggressive regimes or expansionist, theocratic, and totalitarian ideologies is not in fact possible. One should welcome this conclusion for the additional reason that such coexistence is not desirable, either."


Pot meet kettle.

"They" can spin it all "you" want but they invaded a sovereign country to remove nonexistent NBCW capabilities, oops.


Flame on

 
Gunnerlove said:
"Coexistence with aggressive regimes or expansionist, theocratic, and totalitarian ideologies is not in fact possible. One should welcome this conclusion for the additional reason that such coexistence is not desirable, either."


Pot meet kettle.

"They" can spin it all "you" want but they invaded a sovereign country to remove nonexistent NBCW capabilities, oops.


Flame on

Wow, good comeback.....



Matthew.  ::)
 
"They" can spin it all "you" want but they invaded a sovereign country to remove nonexistent NBCW capabilities, oops.

Bingo. How to hit the nail squarely on the head.

I'm very proud of our govenrment's ability to tell the difference between justified and unjustifed American military action. So far, we're batting 1000.

DG
 
"They" can spin it all "you" want but they invaded a sovereign country to remove nonexistent NBCW capabilities, oops.

The Kurds have a different assessment of Saddam's NBCW capabilities.

mdh
 
....here we go again.... :boring:
 
"They" can spin it all "you" want but they invaded a sovereign country to remove nonexistent NBCW capabilities, oops.

..........................

These discussions are good but could be much better with a little background reading by all who are interested

The CDS spoke in his intro brief to many about snakes and old think - NATO vs. the Russian Hordes and that we would be going after snakes, scumbags et al

The CDS is a very big fan of the book (See his his library card below) called "The Pentagon's New Map" graphics in the book are very close to those in the CDS`s online PowerPoint notes

I would like invite you all to check out the fol articles and links - don't be shy and think this is just for the high ups and the officers.

1. 2003 Esquire Article by Thomas Barnett on his book http://www.thomaspmbarnett.com/published/pentagonsnewmap.htm

2. Discussion of why he wrote the book - http://globetrotter.berkeley.edu/people5/Barnett/barnett-con0.html and Real Player Video Link http://webcast.ucsd.edu:8080/ramgen/UCSD_TV/9511.rm

3. 90 min briefing Real Audio link (look for the RED ARROW) http://www.c-span.org/search/basic.asp?ResultStart=1&ResultCount=10&BasicQueryText=barnett

4. HIs website http://www.thomaspmbarnett.com/

His idea - increase east west links to discredit one party states and generate more economic freedom in what he calls the gap - anywhere the governments do not changeover regularly.

You will end up wondering what our media is doing - we are not seeing the broad picture of failed or rogue states that ransack their countries, loot their treasuries, do not invest the money flows from the west in their regional economies and whip their people like beasts of burden.

This describes Iraq before the War - it had long ago given up the status of a sovereign state and assumed the mantle of Criminal state.

There should be no surprise among those handsitter countries who refused to assist in the disruption of the non functioning kleptocracym that their opinion is unwelcome. This pi$$e$ the Europeans off no end because as the Warsaw Pact has declined they are no longer the darling hosts to U$ forces - they are Donald Rumsfelds "Old Europe."

Thomas Barnett proposes that there is no problem taking apart the failed state mafia - where the shift in large scale US thinking has to come is that they have to get it into their mind they will be expected to run these failed states - like Gen Eric Shinseki said - and got retired for saying it - for quite sometime after the end of open hostilities. ENDEX re-deployments are out and the Pentagon (when he wrote the book) hates htis state of affairs.

Read the article - it summarises the book

Watch the videos - you will learn a lot - listen to what he says about Killer Zarkawi if lots of countries come in who have no trouble with zapping Islamic freedom fighters

Don't take my word for it - the problem is MUCH BIGGER THAN IRAQ and Iraq's neighbours and he ends by saying get your Sub Sahara Dictionaires out because we are going there.

If you already know this stuff here is his travel brochure (pre IRAQ smackdown)

HANDICAPPING THE GAP

My list of real trouble for the world in the 1990s, today,
and tomorrow, starting in our own backyard:

1) HAITI; Efforts to build a nation in 1990s were disappointing "¢ We have been going into Haiti for about a century, and we will go back when boat people start flowing in during the next crisis-without fail.

2) COLOMBIA; Country is broken into several lawless chunks, with private armies, rebels, narcos, and legit government all working the place over. "¢ Drugs still flow. "¢ Ties between drug cartels and rebels grew over decade, and now we know of links to international terror, too. "¢ We get involved, keep promising more, and keep getting nowhere. Piecemeal, incremental approach is clearly not working.

3) BRAZIL AND ARGENTINA; Both on the bubble between the Gap and the Functioning Core. Both played the globalization game to hilt in nineties and both feel abused now. The danger of falling off the wagon and going self-destructively ¦; leftist or rightist is very real. "¢ No military threats to speak of, except against their own democracies (the return of the generals). "¢ South American alliance MERCOSUR tries to carve out its own reality while Washington pushes Free Trade of Americas, but we may have to settle for agreements with Chile or for pulling only Chile into bigger NAFTA. Will Brazil and Argentina force themselves to be left out and then resent it? "¢ Amazon a large ungovernable area for Brazil, plus all that environmental damage continues to pile up. Will the world eventually care enough to step in?

4) FORMER YUGOSLAVIA; For most of the past decade, served as shorthand for Europe's inability to get its act together even in its own backyard. "¢ Will be long-term baby-sitting job for the West.

5) CONGO AND RWANDA/BURUNDI; Two to three million dead in central Africa from all the fighting across the decade. How much worse can it get before we try to do something, anything? Three million more dead? "¢ Congo is a carrion state-not quite dead or alive, and everyone is feeding off it. "¢ And then there's AIDS.

6) ANGOLA ; Never really has solved its ongoing civil war (1.5 million dead in past quarter century). "¢ Basically at conflict with self since mid-seventies, when Portuguese "empire" fell. "¢ Life expectancy right now is under forty!

7) SOUTH AFRICA; The only functioning Core country in Africa, but it's on the bubble. Lots of concerns that South Africa is a gateway country for terror networks trying to access Core through back door. "¢ Endemic crime is biggest security threat. "¢ And then there's AIDS.

8 ISRAEL-PALESTINE; Terror will not abate-there is no next generation in the West Bank that wants anything but more violence. "¢ Wall going up right now will be the Berlin Wall of twenty-first century. Eventually, outside powers will end up providing security to keep the two sides apart (this divorce is going to be very painful). "¢ There is always the chance of somebody (Saddam in desperation?) trying to light up Israel with weapons of mass destruction (WMD) and triggering the counterpunch we all fear Israel is capable of.

9) SAUDI ARABIA; The let-them-eat-cake mentality of royal mafia will eventually trigger violent instability from within. "¢ Paying terrorists protection money to stay away will likewise eventually fail, so danger will come from outside, too. "¢ Huge young population with little prospects for future, and a ruling elite whose main source of income is a declining long-term asset. ¦; And yet the oil will matter to enough of the world far enough into the future that the United States will never let this place really tank, no matter what it takes.

10) IRAQ; Question of when and how, not if. "¢ Then there's the huge rehab job. We will have to build a security regime for the whole region.

11) SOMALIA; Chronic lack of governance. "¢ Chronic food problems. "¢ Chronic problem of terrorist-network infiltration. "¢ We went in with Marines and Special Forces and left disillusioned-a poor man's Vietnam for the 1990s. Will be hard-pressed not to return.

12) IRAN; Counterrevolution has already begun: This time the students want to throw the mullahs out. "¢ Iran wants to be friends with U.S., but resurgence of fundamentalists may be the price we pay to invade Iraq. "¢ The mullahs support terror, and their push for WMD is real: Does this make them inevitable target once Iraq and North Korea are settled?

13) AFGHANISTAN; Lawless, violent place even before the Taliban stepped onstage and started pulling it back toward seventh century (short trip) "¢ Government sold to Al Qaeda for pennies on the dollar. "¢ Big source of narcotics (heroin). "¢ Now U.S. stuck there for long haul, rooting out hardcore terrorists/rebels who've chosen to stay.

14) PAKISTAN; There is always the real danger of their having the bomb and using it out of weakness in conflict with India (very close call with December 13, 2001, New Delhi bombing). "¢ Out of fear that Pakistan may fall to radical Muslims, we end up backing hard-line military types we don't really trust. "¢ Clearly infested with Al Qaeda. "¢ Was on its way to being declared a rogue state by U.S. until September 11 forced us to cooperate again. Simply put, Pakistan doesn't seem to control much of its own territory.

15) NORTH KOREA; Marching toward WMD. "¢ Bizarre recent behavior of Pyongyang (admitting kidnappings, breaking promises on nukes, shipping weapons to places we disapprove of and getting caught, signing agreements with Japan that seem to signal new era, talking up new economic zone next to China) suggests it is intent (like some mental patient) on provoking crises. "¢ We live in fear of Kim's Götterdämmerung scenario (he is nuts). "¢ Population deteriorating-how much more can they stand? "¢ After Iraq, may be next.

16) INDONESIA; Usual fears about breakup and "world's largest Muslim population." "¢ Casualty of Asian economic crisis (really got wiped out). "¢ Hot spot for terror networks, as we have discovered.

New/integrating members of Core I worry may be lost in coming years:

17) CHINA; Running lots of races against itself in terms of reducing the unprofitable state-run enterprises while not triggering too much unemployment, plus dealing with all that growth in energy demand and accompanying pollution, plus coming pension crisis as population ages. "¢ New generation of leaders looks suspiciously like unimaginative technocrats-big question if they are up to task. "¢ If none of those macro pressures trigger internal instability, there is always the fear that the Communist party won't go quietly into the night in terms of allowing more political freedoms and that at some point, economic freedom won't be enough for the masses. Right now the CCP is very corrupt and mostly a parasite on the country, but it still calls the big shots in Beijing. "¢ Army seems to be getting more disassociated from society and reality, focusing ever more myopically on countering U.S. threat to their ability to threaten Taiwan, which remains the one flash point that could matter. "¢ And then there's AIDS.

18) RUSSIA; Putin has long way to go in his dictatorship of the law; the mafia and robber barons still have too much power. "¢ Chechnya and the near-abroad in general will drag Moscow into violence, but it will be kept within the federation by and large. "¢ U.S. moving into Central Asia is a testy thing-a relationship that can sour if not handled just right. "¢ Russia has so many internal problems (financial weakness, environmental damage, et cetera) and depends too much on energy exports to feel safe (does bringing Iraq back online after invasion kill their golden goose?). "¢ And then there's AIDS.

19) INDIA; First, there's always the danger of nuking it out with Pakistan. "¢ Short of that, Kashmir pulls them into conflict with Pak, and that involves U.S. now in way it never did before due to war on terror. "¢ India is microcosm of globalization: the high tech, the massive poverty, the islands of development, the tensions between cultures/civilizations/religions/et cetera. ¦; It is too big to succeed, and too big to let fail. "¢ Wants to be big responsible military player in region, wants to be strong friend of U.S., and also wants desperately to catch up with China in development (the self-imposed pressure to succeed is enormous). "¢ And then there's AIDS.
 
Check this out - a Global Wargame you can read all about - its from the CDS`s man shown above - so you
can dig some good futurist stuff out here


Bed time reading is out

Read this entire site to see if you can out Rummy Rumsfeld!

http://newmapgame.com/home/

90 page final report - http://newmapgame.com/newport2005/NMG%20Final%20Report.pdf


 
Juan Coles' response to the Hitchens article can be found here: http://www.salon.com/news/feature/2005/09/05/hitchens/index.html
For balance...

54/102 CEF,

I went through the Global Wargame. Fascinating stuff. There is s a lot of futurist material out there but much of it tends to be written from one perspective such as military or economic without really considering the relationships it has with other elements or the bigger picture consquences of certain actions. One criticism that leaps to mind was that the excercise dealt with internal dissention among all powers' except the US. It seemed to take for granted that the US would remain able to act as a cohesive entity through-out. The reason I say this is that recent US history from 9/11 to Katrina has exposed and sharply polarised the major social and political divisions in US society. It's entirely possible that right or left-wing extremist groups could seek change through less-than-legal means. It would be interesting to see this excercise played out with that as a factor.

It also did not really deal with the issue of Peak Oil. Global economic stability and let alone growth require energy supply to meet demand. Because of the fuzziness around WHEN (google "Hirsh Report") the peak will happen, it is a wildcard.  Again, it would be interesting to see the Game played with the peak included.



 
Glad someone read it :) I have just become aware of this vein of strategic considerations and am a mere babe in the woods.

Oneward and upward!!!!
 
Hitchens was on TVO's "Diplomatic Immunity" (Foreign Affairs Show for those who haven't seen it).  He was to have debated MP George Galloway from the UK again (they had a real blowout in New York on Wednesday of last week) but Mr Galloway no showed. 

Bottom Line:  Hitchens was interviewed by Steve Paikin (show host) and asked all the tough questions for 30 minutes non-stop and he makes the case for war.  No if's, and's, or but's about it.

In particular if you were/are against the war, look for a replay and videotape it at your leisure.  Obviously, if you feel confident you can discredit his arguments it should be enjoyable to watch one of the strong proponents come off looking like an ass(as in a donkey, not a bum)....

My prediction is that at the very least, you will come out of watching that interview with a more tempered view because quite frankly he brings knowledge and insights to the table that are not covered by regular media.

Bottom Line:  Set you VCR.  If you're interested in this debate, it will be the best 5 minutes you can spend....


Matthew.    ;)

Link to Dimplomatic Immunity Homepage with reply time (Sunday afternoon at 3:00pm):
http://www.tvo.org/cgi-bin/WebObjects/Microsite/?di

For all those who are interested in foreign affairs, this is a great program.....


 
Interesting; although Hitchens uses too many buzzwords and fancy-terms for my liking.

I'm not going to argue Iraq, but I think there is two levels to look at when evaluating the utility of the invasion:

1) Whether Hussein's regime was worth taking out.

2) Whether the strategic outlook offered up an advantage for doing so at that particular point in time.
 
Hitchens was on TVO's "Diplomatic Immunity" (Foreign Affairs Show for those who haven't seen it).   He was to have debated MP George Galloway from the UK again (they had a real blowout in New York on Wednesday of last week) but Mr Galloway no showed.


Cdn Blackshirt - not sure if you watched the whole New York debate but I agree with you - it was a classic affair - Galloway is a pretty impressive speaker (too much the evangelical style windbag for my liking but impressive nonethless) and Hitchens stayed true to form as the rationale dissembler -sticking in the odd vicious aside into both Galloway and the audience - if you're interested here's the link to watch the debate:

http://www.hitchensweb.com/

For a more direct like to the video of the debate try this and scroll down to "useful links":

http://www.guardian.co.uk/comment/story/0,,1571538,00.html


cheers, mdh
 
Watched about 15 minutes of it - might get back to it later.

Hitchens overuses the word genocide.
 
On a similar vein:

Terrorism's New Operating System
Reforming our thinking.

Fears raised by Los Angeles's power grid failure earlier this week, this time because of an error in city utility work, was a stark reminder of how the national psyche has become attuned to the potential for terrorism to wreak havoc on our major population centers. The outage took place almost exactly 24 hours after a former southern California native turned al-Qaeda fanatic, Adam Gadahn, took to the airwaves and threatened Los Angelinos as the next victims of the terrorist group's wrath.

America should not be so sanguine about these seemingly idle threats from Islam's lunatic fringe.

Britain's response to the London terror attacks in July provides an even clearer example of the present misperceptions in counterterrorism circles about who the enemy is and how it operates. When authorities there investigating the simultaneous strikes against London's transport hubs learned the attackers were British-born, middle-class Muslim youth, their analysis focused on unraveling the domestic tentacles of what was perceived as a homegrown terror network. An understandable response, but misconceived.

Prior to the 9/11 attacks against the United States, terrorist groups like al Qaeda had well-understood hierarchies with operating systems that functioned much like the human central nervous system. These groups needed little state support because they were essentially states within the states that harbored them.

Four years and two wars later, having suffered the destruction of much of the physical infrastructure and basing areas that Afghanistan, Pakistan and Iraq offered, al Qaeda and its affiliate terrorist networks have evolved their global operating system into an airborne virus capable of infecting concentrated cells of disaffected followers to carry out by proxy the orders of their hidden masters. Citizens and residents of targeted countries who are able to lie dormant longer and at a fraction of the cost of transplanted cells are the new weapons of choice.

Couriers carrying handwritten notes or memorized messages from the likes of Osama bin Laden, Ayman al-Zawahiri, and Abu Musab al-Zarqawi have been caught in Pakistan, Afghanistan, Iraq, Jordan, and Turkey during the past four years. A suspected London bomber even appeared on video with al-Zawahiri three weeks ago. The terror masters would like us to believe that state sponsorship with its highly organized logistics, funding, weaponry, and intelligence are still unnecessary support structures in the continuing expansion of their global terrorist enterprise.

Not likely.

What if terrorism's global operating system has evolved into a much more sophisticated nexus â ” untraceable state sponsorship acting in concert with highly intelligent, well-trained, and carefully chosen foot soldiers who Western analysts would never conceive as partners? What if its new operating software is like the AIDS virus, constantly mutating from one nameless, faceless protocol address to another, transmitting its deadly code without need for regeneration or further direction, and with the necessary but well-camouflaged logistical and planning support states can offer?

Imagine that a state seeking to redress strategic imbalances in the quantifiable military threats it faces from larger powers trains a new, heretofore completely unknown battery of terror masters. They move as businessmen and women, as mothers with families, as low-level functionaries in embassies â ” in short, as people not worthy of intelligence monitoring by the West's traditional antiterror infrastructure.

Imagine further that having successfully moved from the state's nerve center to the localized target country, these infecting agents quietly observe and learn the personality traits, habits, weaknesses, and strengths of a community of naturalized or born citizens who periodically gather in mosques, local eateries or other communal meeting places â ” in sum, places where the unsuspecting proxy cell members would not know they are being "vetted" for future service as terrorists. Once willing local proxies are identified, they are injected with a viral code of highly specific intelligence data about potential targets, methods of attack, how to assemble and deploy locally the weapons required to carry out their deadly missions and a philosophically sustaining message from the messianic figures who inspire them from afar.

The foreign agent then disappears, untraceable and unlikely to ever be seen again in the infected environment, or to even be used by the state sponsor for future missions. The newly formed terrorist cell structure to which the infecting agent gives rise proceeds to either execute its mandate as a super cell, or gives rise to sub-cells with specific but insulated instruction sets that enable long-term multiple attack scenarios to materialize. Each super cell breaks the link to the sub-cell it gives rise to once the instructions and inspiration have been passed on â ” no forensic evidence to tie one cell to another, no traceable links, no fingerprints.

The sponsoring state achieves its critical objective â ” redressing the strategic imbalance through destabilizing acts of terror â ” while remaining fingerprint-less in the crimes it conceives and supports. It infects enough local cells to insure sustainability of the enterprise over a long period of time, while also insuring that if one cell fails in its mission, another is standing by to carry on. The local proxies achieve whatever dubious objectives they have â ” fulfilling a jihadist mission in pursuit of some misguided concept of paradise, or just causing chaos, death and mayhem.

Failure to recognize that such may be the imagination of terrorism's strategic planners, whether they sit in Teheran, Damascus or on a yacht in the Mediterranean, is to foresee our doom in their hands. That our enemies know enough about our societal weaknesses to conceive such self-perpetuating measures demonstrates how urgent the need for reform in our counterterrorism thinking is.

The key to combating the newly evolving terror strategy lies in fusing advanced technology with the same type of low-tech human-intelligence framework adopted by our enemies to subvert us. There is an urgent need at a national level to develop and incorporate a new generation of cyber-protection systems that guard our critical infrastructure (so-called Supervisory Control And Data Acquisition [SCADA] Systems) like the Los Angeles power grid from gifted militant hackers, some sitting afar and some closer than we'd like to admit.

The new soldiers of our frontline defenses must include Imams trained under government mandate to spot the infecting agents, including the hackers who breed among us. The new corps of imams must also move rapidly to prevent invective from filling their mosques and sanctuaries so as to give rise to groupings of people susceptible to terrorist manipulation.

We must imagine how the least likely terrorist alliances are the most likely to rise up against us â ” Shiite mullahs working with Sunni fanatics, or Baathists with Islamists, for instance â ” and then craft strategies based on raw data collected by human beings, not just computers and satellites, to unravel their plans. This requires urgent rethinking at an interagency level in our government about the distribution of intelligence resources on inanimate data collection systems. We need many more human spies â ” period.

We must adopt effective international standards for tracking would-be terrorists from the early stages of their transformations, whether at Pakistan's Madrassah schools or in southern California's universities, by installing technologically innovative systems like fingerprint I.D. that register and catalogue masses of faceless, nameless people â ” enabling us to track them right to our shores.

And we must be ruthless in compromising the intelligence and military industrial complexes of the states that seek to dismember us, whether through expert computer hacking or advanced surveillance airships that can monitor the most sensitive communications of the terror masters and their corps of transmitters, so we know who or what the enemy really is.

Time is no friend of societies infected with terror's new fatal viral operating system.

â ” Mansoor Ijaz, chairman of Crescent Investment Management, negotiated Sudan's offer of counterterrorism assistance to the Clinton administration in April 1997 and co-authored the blueprint for a ceasefire of hostilities in Kashmir between Muslim militants and Indian security forces in the summer of 2000.   
 
  http://www.nationalreview.com/ijaz/ijaz200509160833.asp       
 
mdh said:
Cdn Blackshirt - not sure if you watched the whole New York debate but I agree with you - it was a classic affair - Galloway is a pretty impressive speaker (too much the evangelical style windbag for my liking but impressive nonethless) and Hitchens stayed true to form as the rationale dissembler -sticking in the odd vicious aside into both Galloway and the audience - if you're interested here's the link to watch the debate:

http://www.hitchensweb.com/

For a more direct like to the video of the debate try this and scroll down to "useful links":

http://www.guardian.co.uk/comment/story/0,,1571538,00.html


cheers, mdh

No, I only saw the snippets they played on Diplomatic Immunity. 

RE:  The link - I'll definitely check that out this evening.....very cool!



Matthew.    :salute:
 
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