Shamrock said:
Anyone with improved awareness of the occupational status matrix care to rhyme in on this? I look at it and see quite a bit of green but a projected TES of 58k (96% of the PML). Quite a few trades are in the green and few are in the red.
Yes, I'm going to weigh in here but I speak only from the perspective of the Army.
I'm hearing (or reading, as the case may be) a lot of "the sky is falling" based on anecdotal evidence of "my brother's cousin's dog's groomer said...." yet, in all honesty, the numbers do not support that. Attrition in the Army as a whole is at historic lows as it is within the CF. And the statistics support that statement. In 2008, Army Officers had an attrition rate of 7.6% and NCMs 10.5%. This year, the officer attrition rate is at 4.5% and NCMs at 5.9%. That is a drop in attrition of 3.1% and 4.6% respectively. And when we're talking 20 some-odd-thousand people, that is a huge difference. Now, of course each MOSID has different rates, but overall, the Army is in really good shape. And from what I understand, the other elements are also in pretty good shape
overall. The Army, Navy and Air Force are manned to about 95% of their PML (preferred manning level) which is incredible considering the shape we were all in 3 or 4 years ago. And now I have to caveat these statistics. Infantry, for example, as a Branch is doing well at 102% TES (trained effective strength) to PML. However, when one breaks this down by unit, there is a definite problem out West. And the same holds true for the Armoured. Geographically, particularly in the west, we are seeing high attrition which can probably be attributed to their close proximity to the Oil Sands. But it's also getting difficult to get people to accept a posting out west, so there's something else going on there which will need to be researched in the new year.
Now, to get into the numbers at the different rank levels. We have lower manning levels (between 90-95%) at the ranks of Major, WO, and Sgt and critical (below 90%) at the MCpl levels. Four years ago these ranks as well as Capt/Lt and MWO were all critical. We cannot recruit at these rank levels so it does take a few years to correct, which we are seeing now. But the ranks of Cpl/Pte, MWO, CWO Capt/Lt LCol and Col are all manned between 96-105%. And for those of you wondering, no, it's not the Col rank that is at 105%. In fact, they are the 96%. Cpl/Ptes are manned to 105%. And as I said earlier, each MOSID is different. The situation is better within the Combat Arms trades than the technical trades and that is mostly because of training times. But things are looking a lot better than they were four or five years ago. There is no such thing as a quick fix when it comes to improving the senior rank levels.
I think I covered everything and hopefully didn't confuse anyone.
Cheers!
