Black vessel is definitely altering course to the wrong side of the channel and cutting across the path of the red vessel, which is left with no place to run and no time to stop.
The sole question is why did it happen.
Many possibilities exist, such as power failure with no time for helmsman to switch to secondary steering system; steering gear malfunction - mechanical to the ship; steering gear malfunction -external (that is they accidentally dredged something that was in the canal, a car, a steel wire cable, etc); human error, such has helmsman going the wrong way on an ordered course correction; human factor, non-error related, such as helmsman having a hearth attack; etc.
The investigation will figure it out.