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Canadian Federal Election 44 - Sep 2021

dimsum

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So a sort of dumping ground for disaffected conservatives, ruffians and right wing fringe types? Or just Mad Max being sour about losing the leadership race? Or both.
Yes.
 

Remius

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With only about a week or so until this is decided I’m going to make a prediction. Keep in mind this isn’t how I WANT it to go just how I THINK it will go.

LPC minority. Likely will lose 10 seats. A CPC divided that might have a small civil war despite a seat increase. But I suspect that could be avoided. Singh increases his seat count so gets to stay, paul will lose her seat and step down. Blanchet quits as well. Lots of angry liberal party membership types questioning why they launched an election in the first place and had to lose their jobs. And see you all in 18 months again.

The only thing that could save O’toole if he loses despite increasing his seat count is the reduced appetite for a leadership run that would have to be done by next spring at the latest. Assuming he won’t quit either. His advantage would be that Canadians know him now. But I anticipate resistance internally to keep moving to the center.

The best thing for Trudeau would be to declare after that this will be his last term and ensure an orderly transition to a new leader. This would make O’toole and Singh the most experienced party leaders next time round.
 

Haggis

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LPC minority. Likely will lose 10 seats. A CPC divided that might have a small civil war despite a seat increase. But I suspect that could be avoided. Singh increases his seat count so gets to stay, Paul will lose her seat and step down. Blanchet quits as well. Lots of angry liberal party membership types questioning why they launched an election in the first place and had to lose their jobs. And see you all in 18 months again.
Some friends I spoke to who I would consider "in the know" would say 18 months is generous if Trudeau is denied a majority or if the CPC forms the next government.
The only thing that could save O’Toole if he loses despite increasing his seat count is the reduced appetite for a leadership run that would have to be done by next spring at the latest. Assuming he won’t quit either. His advantage would be that Canadians know him now. But I anticipate resistance internally to keep moving to the center.
I think Trudeau is counting on this. The last thing he wants for his next run at a majority is to contest it against someone the electorate recognizes and is more seasoned this time.
The best thing for Trudeau would be to declare after that this will be his last term and ensure an orderly transition to a new leader. This would make O’toole and Singh the most experienced party leaders next time round.
I don't think his ego would allow this. Dapaterson postulated a possible outcome back at post 212:

Tory minority, Trudeau steps down, Tories miscount support in the house, lose a vote of confidence, Trudeau changes his mind, comes back, and wins a majority...

Unless Trudeau were to lose his eat in the House....
 

daftandbarmy

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Nanos numbers this morning. Grenier’s aggregate won’t be out until later.

not sure what to make of this. Debate? Protests? Voters making up their mind and going with the devil they know?

I'm sure that the Liberals are pissed that the left is divided like that...
 

Remius

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Some friends I spoke to who I would consider "in the know" would say 18 months is generous if Trudeau is denied a majority or if the CPC forms the next government.

I think Trudeau is counting on this. The last thing he wants for his next run at a majority is to contest it against someone the electorate recognizes and is more seasoned this time.

I don't think his ego would allow this. Dapaterson postulated a possible outcome back at post 212:



Unless Trudeau were to lose his eat in the House....
We’ll his ego is his own worst enemy. I did say “the best thing”. But I agree with you that his ego may prevent him from taking that COA.
 

Remius

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I'm sure that the Liberals are pissed that the left is divided like that...
I’m sure they are. But they may be able to afford the dividing more that the CPC can. The CPC risk losing some of the base or some of the moderates and I suspect more CPC voters would rather just satay home if they don’t like what they see. In the end, if the COC can’t win this time I don’t know what they could do different other than keep O’toole on and keep at it for the next one on the track they are on.
 

daftandbarmy

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Trudeau has China's vote, if they could vote:

Vancouver’s Beijing allies align with Trudeau’s Liberals

China-sanctioned Conservative MP Kenny Chiu calls out disinformation campaign against him​


The Conservatives have taken a critical approach against China in this election campaign, while the Liberal platform is silent on matters surrounding ChinaRichard Sharrocks/Getty Images

Vancouver residents supportive of the Chinese Communist Party are promoting the Liberals in Canada’s general election for the 44th Parliament on September 20.

Furthermore, Richmond Conservative MP Kenny Chiu — who was sanctioned by China in March — says there is a concerted effort to spread misinformation about him.

“I kind of anticipated some of the blowback and attacks because of my relatively strong and clear position on foreign interference and influence, and also speaking up for human rights and democracy around the world. But what I did not anticipate is some of the smears and the level of falsehood that's been circulated in WeChat and even now popping up on WhatsApp,” said Chiu, who, while in opposition since 2019, tabled a bill (C-282) to establish a national registry for foreigners engaged in political work. Chiu is also a staunch critic of the CCP’s human rights violations and supporter of Hong Kong’s democratic movement.

Messages on WeChat (China’s state-monitored social media platform), reviewed and translated by Glacier Media, generally show support for the Liberals, criticism levied against the Conservatives and indifference toward the New Democrats. They invoke racial unity and support for the Chinese government.

“Please vote for the Liberals and use your power in the Chinese community so that we can have a chance to influence the future of Canada,” one message states.

Another message circulating is addressed to “overseas Chinese.”

It reads, in part: “As long as we ethnic Chinese unite, resolutely do not vote for those crazy sinophobic Conservative candidates and cast your precious votes for the Liberal candidates in your ridings, we will surely defeat the Conservative Party.”

The message makes no mention of domestic issues and focuses on relations/issues with China, including excusing Liberal Prime Minister Justin Trudeau for not being able to “say much” about the detention of Huawei CFO Meng Wanzhou and stating how, under the Liberals, the “door to 5G has not yet closed for Huawei” (unlike with all of Canada’s national security allies who view Huawei hardware as a CCP-controlled cyberthreat).
The message speaks highly of the CCP’s “road to socialism with Chinese characteristics” and states that if Canada can maintain friendly relations and exchanges with China, its economy will improve.

 

Retired AF Guy

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Trudeau has China's vote, if they could vote:

Vancouver’s Beijing allies align with Trudeau’s Liberals

China-sanctioned Conservative MP Kenny Chiu calls out disinformation campaign against him​


The Conservatives have taken a critical approach against China in this election campaign, while the Liberal platform is silent on matters surrounding ChinaRichard Sharrocks/Getty Images

Vancouver residents supportive of the Chinese Communist Party are promoting the Liberals in Canada’s general election for the 44th Parliament on September 20.

Furthermore, Richmond Conservative MP Kenny Chiu — who was sanctioned by China in March — says there is a concerted effort to spread misinformation about him.

“I kind of anticipated some of the blowback and attacks because of my relatively strong and clear position on foreign interference and influence, and also speaking up for human rights and democracy around the world. But what I did not anticipate is some of the smears and the level of falsehood that's been circulated in WeChat and even now popping up on WhatsApp,” said Chiu, who, while in opposition since 2019, tabled a bill (C-282) to establish a national registry for foreigners engaged in political work. Chiu is also a staunch critic of the CCP’s human rights violations and supporter of Hong Kong’s democratic movement.

Messages on WeChat (China’s state-monitored social media platform), reviewed and translated by Glacier Media, generally show support for the Liberals, criticism levied against the Conservatives and indifference toward the New Democrats. They invoke racial unity and support for the Chinese government.

“Please vote for the Liberals and use your power in the Chinese community so that we can have a chance to influence the future of Canada,” one message states.

Another message circulating is addressed to “overseas Chinese.”

It reads, in part: “As long as we ethnic Chinese unite, resolutely do not vote for those crazy sinophobic Conservative candidates and cast your precious votes for the Liberal candidates in your ridings, we will surely defeat the Conservative Party.”

The message makes no mention of domestic issues and focuses on relations/issues with China, including excusing Liberal Prime Minister Justin Trudeau for not being able to “say much” about the detention of Huawei CFO Meng Wanzhou and stating how, under the Liberals, the “door to 5G has not yet closed for Huawei” (unlike with all of Canada’s national security allies who view Huawei hardware as a CCP-controlled cyberthreat).
The message speaks highly of the CCP’s “road to socialism with Chinese characteristics” and states that if Canada can maintain friendly relations and exchanges with China, its economy will improve.


Well isn't that just peachy..
 

Retired AF Guy

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If things couldn't get more weirder:

Former Liberal MP Celina Caesar-Chavannes throws support behind Tory candidate in election

By Rachel Gilmore Global News

Posted September 12, 2021 9:58 am Updated September 12, 2021 11:17 am

The Conservative Party has found an unlikely supporter in the federal election: former Liberal MP Celina Caesar-Chavannes.
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Speaking in an interview with The West Block’s Mercedes Stephenson, Caesar-Chavannes — who left the Liberal caucus to sit as an independent in March 2019 — said she plans to vote for Conservative candidate Maleeha Shahid in the Whitby, Ont., riding she once represented as a Liberal.

“I’m very much a Liberal at heart, but I would say that in this particular instance, in 2021, I don’t mind voting for my local representative, Maleeha Shahid, who is a Conservative,” Caesar-Chavannes said.

“I’ve never done that in my life. But at this particular time, maybe we have to think about doing things differently.”

When asked about Caesar-Chavannes’ comments on Sunday, Liberal Party Leader Justin Trudeau said he wishes her “all the best.”

“People have a really important choice to make in this election…Mr. O’Toole wants to take Canada back, take it back to 1951, apparently,” Trudeau said. said.

“We need to move forward, and people will make their choices. But we are unequivocal about standing up for women, standing up to flight climate change, standing for a better future for everyone.”

Caesar-Chavannes left the Liberal caucus after comments she made in an interview were published in The Globe and Mail in early 2019. In that interview, she spoke about private conversations she had with Trudeau about her intention to not seek re-election in the 2019 election.

She said Trudeau greeted the news of her planned departure with “hostility” and “anger.” A spokesperson for Trudeau said at the time that while the conversations were “emotional” there was “absolutely no hostility.”

Addressing her departure in a tweet at the time, Caesar-Chavannes said that the interview she did with the Globe and Mail “had unintended effects on those I care about,” adding that she “no longer” wanted to “distract from the great work my caucus colleagues are doing.”

In the months following, Caesar-Chavannes continued her streak as an outspoken critic of Trudeau. She defended former Liberal cabinet ministers Jody Wilson-Raybould and Jane Philpott as they criticized the government’s handling of the SNC-Lavalin affair, and regularly issued criticism of the Liberal government’s handling of racial issues.

Speaking in her interview with Stephenson, Caesar-Chavannes shared that she “cried” when she read an excerpt from former Liberal cabinet minister Jody Wilson-Raybould’s book. That excerpt detailed a tense discussion between Wilson-Raybould and Trudeau centered on the SNC-Lavalin affair.

“I wasn’t heartbroken because I felt the hurt. I wasn’t heartbroken because of the pain that I felt. I wasn’t heartbroken because some of that feeling that was in that room was so familiar to me,” Caesar-Chavannes said.

“I was heartbroken because we keep continuing to reward bad behavior from a prime minister that won a 2019 election, had a majority and a minority government for six years, (and) continues to say there is more to do.”

She said there’s an opportunity in this election to “do things differently,” and she hopes the Liberals “really think about that” and “distance themselves” from Trudeau.

Despite her intention to vote for her local Conservative candidate, the Tories haven’t been spared from Caesar-Chavannes’ criticism during the election campaign.

“Erin O’Toole doesn’t want to talk about race or write about it or think about it,” she tweeted in mid-August.

“How can Canadians expect him to deal with inequity and racism?”

She also retweeted a tweet that was critical of O’Toole’s letter to Trudeau about the B.C. wildfires, noting the Conservative leader didn’t mention “climate” once.

© 2021 Global News, a division of Corus Entertainment Inc.

Link
 

Good2Golf

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If things couldn't get more weirder:



Link
It’s not really very weird at all. Trudeau kicked Caesar-Chavannes to the curb once he finished using her as a black female prop to demonstrate his woke-feminist brand down in Washington back in 2015. Another example of using people, woman or man, and throwing them away when he feels they have no more utility to his brand.

The irony is how many women still believe he’s a valid feminist, vice the true power-driven misogynist hiding under feminist camouflage…
 

ModlrMike

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I would think that not only being an experienced lawyer, but former Justice Minister, JWR has taken steps so as to not expose herself to claims of libel.
 

FJAG

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Remember the 1980s, when Brian Mulroney formed extremely centrist (and extremely electable) Progressive Conservative governments, but at the expense of ticking off Western Canada so much that they founded the Reform Party? Fast forward 30 years, and a more centrist Conservative Party is on the cusp of victory while supporters flock to Maxime Bernier’s People’s Party of Canada. The National Post’s Brian Platt did a deep dive into the sudden rise of the PPC, and whether it represents a new perma-rift in the Canadian right.
The problem, if it actually is a problem, is that there are more individuals who lean toward social policies over fiscal ones in this country. The Progressive Conservative Party was always the guardian of the later with a touch of the former while the Liberals and NDP split the former into two camps with the Libs hanging more towards the centre.

In the last few decades Canada's conservative movement has followed by developing the split that troubled the Republicans in the '80s with an ultra conservative wing espousing both social and fiscal conservatism and that element slowly took over the party. In Canada social conservatives and fiscal conservatives broke into a social conservative wing (Reform/Canadian Alliance) and a fiscal conservative centre (the PCs) which reunited in 2003 and resulted in the PCs dropping the word "Progressive" from their party's name. Its been an uneasy alliance ever since IMHO because of the example of what the Republicans were becoming in the US and thus encouraging and entrenching social conservative attitudes.

As long as the CPC can keep that smouldering alliance in check they have a chance to beat the divided left from time-to-time, but basically conservatives will probably never be a majority in Canada again and the best they can hope for is a plurality in an election which will give them a majority government.

My guess is that if social conservatism dominated Republicanism in the US ever collapses then maybe Canada will follow suit. I do not see that happening though. My guess is it will strengthen and as a result, will entrench it even more in Canada which means that eventually fiscal conservatives may flee their own party to the Liberals in the hope that at least there they may be able to influence better fiscal management.

Unfortunately that's what's been happening to my family. We've been strong PC supporter for decades and stuck with the CPC for quite a while but one-by-one have slipped left to the Liberals. I was the last holdout and even joined my local CPC EDA as a board member with the hope of influencing things. Two weeks ago I resigned. I didn't support O'Toole originally but think that he has grown into a good solid leader who is keeping the lid on a powder keg. Unfortunately no matter how well you sit on that powder keg, in the end it's still full of wingnuts and powder that's probably going to explode. There were a number of issues which came up over time which made me leave. Too many axes are being ground and unfortunately the CPC is having to kowtow to some really stupid axemen in order to hold the coalition together just a bit longer. It honestly makes one feel a bit dirty.

For the first time, after a half a century, I'm not sure how I'm going to vote. I can guarantee that it won't be Liberal though.

🍻
 

dapaterson

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Based on lawn signs (not signs posted on public rights of way) I am not seeing much LPC enthusiasm in Ottawa Centre. Very plausible it could flip back to Orange.

With house prices spiking and making paper millionaires in the area, I'm even seeing more Blue signs, possibly eroding votes from the LPC on the other side of the spectrum as well.
 

Colin Parkinson

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The LPC has sharks on both sides of the spectrum, the CPC only had one shark until PPC started to gain ground and now is in a similar position, not quite to the same extent yet.
 

blacktriangle

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I would not be surprised if there are online operatives trying to hype up the PPC on social media platforms. Essentially influencing people to throw their vote away, to the benefit of parties other than the CPC.

I can't however discount the possibility that there are more far-right or Libertarian types than we perhaps realize, and that the events of the last 18 months have stirred them up enough to reject establishment parties entirely.
 

Remius

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I would not be surprised if there are online operatives trying to hype up the PPC on social media platforms. Essentially influencing people to throw their vote away, to the benefit of parties other than the CPC.

I can't however discount the possibility that there are more far-right or Libertarian types than we perhaps realize, and that the events of the last 18 months have stirred them up enough to reject establishment parties entirely.
Sure. But they either never voted or voted CPC.
 
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