Canadian Budget 2017

[jmt18325]

Ah!  So now we do have new taxes

I never said otherwise.  I said there were basically no new taxes.  I then gave the definition of basically for context, since the statement was obviously very controversial for some reason.

Look, I think that's enough from me.  I'd like to thank you all for your time and for the great information.  This forum is really not a place for discussion. 

 

[PPCLI Guy]

I never said otherwise.  I said there were basically no new taxes.  I then gave the definition of basically for context, since the statement was obviously very controversial for some reason.

Look, I think that's enough from me.  I'd like to thank you all for your time and for the great information.  This forum is really not a place for discussion.

Please don't assume that.  I have followed your posts with interest - sadly, so have some of the usual gang of those who pile on to someone who is either new, or thinks differently.  Your voice has as much value as anyone else's on this site - and many of your posts are more reasoned than those of others.

 

[Edward Campbell]

Please don't assume that.  I have followed your posts with interest - sadly, so have some of the usual gang of those who pile on to someone who is either new, or thinks differently.  Your voice has as much value as anyone else's on this site - and many of your posts are more reasoned than those of others.

:ditto:

I often disagree with you, jmt, but, then, I usually disagree with almost everyone on almost everything.

In fact I was going to post something to support your view that there are, essentially, "no new taxes" ~ at least not in the big scheme of things. I was going to add that there is, in fact, "no new anything," this is a timid, conservative, do nothing budget because no one in official Ottawa wants to do anything because no one knows what the global economic situation is going to be like in six days, much less in six weeks, six months or six years. Brexit, Donald Trump, the South China Seas, global terrorism, supply and demand and, and, and ... are all out of whack.

There are, generally, three major inputs to a budget: government, officials and allied experts, and the business community. In my opinion this budget is about 95% officialdom, and 2.5% each government/politics and business. The officials are, by their very nature and by the nature of their environment, very, Very, VERY conservative and this is a conservative, stand-pat, do nothing, signal nothing, wait and see budget. The verbiage is "Team Trudeau"trying to set the table for 2019 ~ they will shift away, I suspect, from the green, feminist and sunny ways agenda and towards an "innovation" agenda, but that's just a WAG ~ but the numbers, that "do nothing" are pure, cautious, timid, Canadian civil service.

Oh, and money for defence? Surely you all jest ... which amongst you can posit a coherent, sensible, comprehensible threat to Canada or its vital interests for which more military is the best answer? Overall, Journeyman has it about right.

 

[Brad Sallows]

Wasn't a round of public budget consultation conducted to great fanfare?  Presumably this budget is the outcome.

 

[jmt18325]

I just have to say this.

I know most of you won't believe it.  I was angry earlier.  The truth is, I really enjoy this place.  It's a place where I've learned a lot from people that have a lot of information.  I realize now that for me, what's just a discussion, is real life for many of you.  I guess I didn't understand how that would impact your perspective on some pretty forceful outside views.  That's not the way I meant to or mean to come across.  On (some) military matters, I should probably shut up most of the time (and indeed, I do most of the time, but I should shut up more often), because even if I can't verify who you are, you're most likely who you claim to be.

I'm sorry for offending people and coming across as a jerk.  If I stay, I'll probably do it again.  It's not necessarily intentional (we're all intentional jerks sometimes).

That said, I do know a fair bit about government.  I don't know as much about government as a senior bureaucrat or politician, but I've studied it as my main hobby for about 15 years.  I've always loved it.  When I said that there was basically no new taxes, I meant just that.  It wasn't meant to be a confrontational or controversial statement.  It was simply my view that all of that tax increases (none of which I will pay [okay, I'll pay the alcohol and tobacco ones, but not as an end consumer]) amounted to nothing when compared with the size of the budget and the economy.  If you disagree, that's fine - it's simply my assessment.

I'm not trolling.  I know some of you see me that way, but I'm not.  I'm sorry for that perception as well.  Have a good night and or day, whenever you read this.

 

[Eye In The Sky]

I realize now that for me, what's just a discussion, is real life for many of you.  I guess I didn't understand how that would impact your perspective on some pretty forceful outside views.

Yup.  Some of us will spend our entire life's work, or most of it, in uniform.

On (some) military matters, I should probably shut up most of the time (and indeed, I do most of the time, but I should shut up more often), because even if I can't verify who you are, you're most likely who you claim to be.

Even those of us who've spent or will spend decades in uniform are limited in the areas we will become SMEs in.  I have strayed out of my lane, so have many others on here;  as long as you see your heading off the shoulder and can crank it back over between the lines, IMO its no big deal.

I did quite a few years in Army DEU.  Despite that...I know nothing (from experience) about how the artillery works, or Engineers, or how to set up and run a Brigade Command Post.  Someone who knew how to run a Bde CP in their sleep wouldn't be able to do the job I did.  That's why we have SMEs.  As Air Force now, I have a general idea about how some things work, but what I really know and can speak about is the LRP dry sensor and crew/Sqn level stuff.  Point...we all have our limits on what we can actually know, competently, and speak about from the BTDT perspective.  I've crossed my lanes before, I've been put back in place on the thread itself or via PM.  It happens.

When I said that there was basically no new taxes, I meant just that.  It wasn't meant to be a confrontational or controversial statement.  It was simply my view that all of that tax increases (none of which I will pay [okay, I'll pay the alcohol and tobacco ones, but not as an end consumer]) amounted to nothing when compared with the size of the budget and the economy.  If you disagree, that's fine - it's simply my assessment.

And, you're not alone.  I don't agree with the public transit tax credit change (aren't we supposed to be encouraging a smaller carbon footprint, etc?) but on what I will call non-essential items, I'd rather see that stuff taxed than things that can really hurt people in tight spots;  diapers or something that could make things tough for a single parent.

I'll give you an example of something you said that made me think "wtf";  in the FWSAR discussion when you made a comment that basically said the RCAF cooked up the requirements to "get the plane that they wanted".  Maybe the better way to think of it was the RCAF SAR professionals, SMEs...they gave the requirements to the bean counters that would enable them to do the job they do now, but better, faster and safer than they do it now.  Capabilities are something we will normally (always?) want to see go UP, not DOWN.  I've flown up North before.  I know how long it takes to get there at the speed we can go in an Aurora.  The new SAR bird will be slower than that.  That could, someday, literally be the difference between life and death for someone.  As an operator at the unit level...I care about capabilities and limitations and I will always push for increased caps and decreased lims.  That doesn't mean I want a shiny new plane, I want the capabilities that come with it; better endurance, better speed (time to LKP is important!), better serviceability, whatever.  Its not just 'we want this nice shiny plane!!!".

Accept that some people here are SMEs and figure out who they are, then you'll have a better sense of who is talking and who is talking from knowledge and experience.  You don't see me posting too much on anything that has to do with sailing, because the only sailing I've ever done was on Marine Atlantic.    8)

 

[jollyjacktar]

JMT,  I have been rude and boorish towards you and for that I do apologize.

 

[Rifleman62]

Number 5 is interesting re Gun Control.

https://www.therebel.media/_fakenews_top_5_things_missing_from_media_party_coverage_of_trudeau_budget

March 23, 2017
#FakeNews: Top 5 things missing from Media Party coverage of Trudeau budget

 

[Cloud Cover]

The budget may reference that treaty, and we may as well be a party to it, but the implementation all the way from shipper to "end user" will require some sort of domestic statutory implementation. If they think they are going to sneak that in by stealth (e.g.- a regulation and not a statute), they will have one hell of a fight on their hands.
The purpose of the treaty is to create country of origin, manufacturer and arms dealer/ broker accountability to prevent the flow of weapons into the hands of rogue nations and terror groups, not to impose registries like the former gun registry.

 

[QV]

With the distinct lack of defence spending in this budget, do you think Trump's latest comments on NAFTA and the Canadian dairy industry are the US administration's opening salvo? 

What are we at now, 0.88 % GDP for defence spending?  Is that a record low?

 

[Lightguns]

The budget may reference that treaty, and we may as well be a party to it, but the implementation all the way from shipper to "end user" will require some sort of domestic statutory implementation. If they think they are going to sneak that in by stealth (e.g.- a regulation and not a statute), they will have one hell of a fight on their hands.
The purpose of the treaty is to create country of origin, manufacturer and arms dealer/ broker accountability to prevent the flow of weapons into the hands of rogue nations and terror groups, not to impose registries like the former gun registry.

The only thing that treaty will do is increase the cost of firearms and weapons systems to end user.  If ISIS wants a gun, ISIS will get a gun regardless of where in the world ISIS is.  Marking "made in Canada" as a means of keeping firearms away from rogue orgs is as bright as registering guns to keep them away from criminals.  The parliament hill shooter's lever-gun was marked "made in the USA", do they have any idea of where and how he got it?  NK, China and Russia are going to continue to make unmarked guns for those rogue nations from the factories they have set up for that specific purpose.

 

[jmt18325]

What are we at now, 0.88 % GDP for defence spending?  Is that a record low?

That's according to the Senate - it may be calculated differently by NATO, who expects Canada to be at 1.0% this year.

As for Trump - he hasn't managed to get much done yet other than talk.  I wouldn't lose too much sleep over it.

It's also worth noting that the Canadian dairy industry gets no subsidies and uses no hormones.  The US is the opposite.

 

[Good2Golf]

With the distinct lack of defence spending in this budget, do you think Trump's latest comments on NAFTA and the Canadian dairy industry are the US administration's opening salvo? 

What are we at now, 0.88 % GDP for defence spending?  Is that a record low?

Not sure they're linked, QV.  I'm thinking POTUS' comments are more liked a sawed-off shot gun than a hunting rifle.  Interestingly, w will likely not hear about things like soft-wood lumber inequities that many even within the US begrudgingly acknowledge are lop-sided.

Regarding the budget, like others, I have less issue with a VAT-like element of taxation n consumption, but so to am I concerned that some incentives (public transport credit, for example) that would directly support greener travel are eliminated.  This is counter-intuitive to the LPC's greening agenda.  I am also concerned about the weakness of the plan to return to a balanced budget -- that the new mantra appears to be "so long as the deficit is a reasonable small proportion of GDP, it's not a bad thing."  I seems that the PM and Co.'s mind is made up already that deficits will be around for a long time to come.  Canada would do well to look at Quebec's journey towards the cliff-edge of deficit unsustainability, and see what they did to get back to a position away from that precipice...good on Qc for getting back to sustained balanced budgets as they try to recover from their debt position.

Regards
G2G

 

[jmt18325]

Not sure they're linked, QV.  I'm thinking POTUS' comments are more liked a sawed-off shot gun than a hunting rifle.  Interestingly, w will likely not hear about things like soft-wood lumber inequities that many even within the US begrudgingly acknowledge are lop-sided.

Regarding the budget, like others, I have less issue with a VAT-like element of taxation n consumption, but so to am I concerned that some incentives (public transport credit, for example) that would directly support greener travel are eliminated.  This is counter-intuitive to the LPC's greening agenda.  I am also concerned about the weakness of the plan to return to a balanced budget -- that the new mantra appears to be "so long as the deficit is a reasonable small proportion of GDP, it's not a bad thing."  I seems that the PM and Co.'s mind is made up already that deficits will be around for a long time to come.  Canada would do well to look at Quebec's journey towards the cliff-edge of deficit unsustainability, and see what they did to get back to a position away from that precipice...good on Qc for getting back to sustained balanced budgets as they try to recover from their debt position.

Regards
G2G

After this year, the debt to GDP ratio will again begin to shrink.  That is the exact opposite of unsustainable (though a balanced budget is certainly the preference in my view).

 

[Good2Golf]

That's according to the Senate - it may be calculated differently by NATO, who expects Canada to be at 1.0% this year.

Agree.  Until the "method of accounting" is confirmed, the %GDP can be all over the place.  I for one, would like to see a more specific break down of what money goes where, including for specific "whole-of-Alliance" benefit, not just the logic/justification of "We, [insert country name here] are a Mediterranean country so 100% of our Coast Guard is a NATO contribution."

It's also worth noting that the Canadian dairy industry gets no subsidies and uses no hormones.  The US is the opposite.

Are you sure about that, jmt?  Perhaps "direct" (as in an identifiable transfer of funds) subsidies, but I'm not so sure that there aren't notable credits that, at least to the Americans (and even between the Ontario and Quebec dairy associations) are credits that preference regional dairy production.  Family friends of ours dairy farm in Southern Ontario and the issue of credits, inter-Provincial and international dairy quotas, etc. comes up in conversation often.  I would say that if the Americans look at Canadian dairy in general the way that Ontario and Quebec look at each other, then I'm not surprised we hear what we hear from Trump.

Regards
G2G

 

[Good2Golf]

After this year, the debt to GDP ratio will again begin to shrink.  That is the exact opposite of unsustainable (though a balanced budget is certainly the preference in my view).

Agree. 

That said, if there were the two factors being considered (surplus/balance/deficit, and debt:GDP ratio), my preference would be to see responsible Government put the emphasis on the former (working off debt) rather than the latter (ensuring growing debt 'isn't so bad.').  Just my preference though...I know that there are many, many more "bad offenders" in the Debt:GDP world, but I don't think that justifies one's own nation's current policy alignment.

:2c:

Regards
G2G

 

[Rifleman62]

jmt18325:

As for Trump - he hasn't managed to get much done yet other than talk.

Care to backup that statement? Obama care at present is a given.

 

[jollyjacktar]

Agree.  Until the "method of accounting" is confirmed, the %GDP can be all over the place.  I for one, would like to see a more specific break down of what money goes where, including for specific "whole-of-Alliance" benefit, not just the logic/justification of "We, [insert country name here] are a Mediterranean country so 100% of our Coast Guard is a NATO contribution."

Are you sure about that, jmt?  Perhaps "direct" (as in an identifiable transfer of funds) subsidies, but I'm not so sure that there aren't notable credits that, at least to the Americans (and even between the Ontario and Quebec dairy associations) are credits that preference regional dairy production.  Family friends of ours dairy farm in Southern Ontario and the issue of credits, inter-Provincial and international dairy quotas, etc. comes up in conversation often.  I would say that if the Americans look at Canadian dairy in general the way that Ontario and Quebec look at each other, then I'm not surprised we hear what we hear from Trump.

Regards
G2G

Listening to a talking head on the radio on the way in today re the milk wars.  He said that what's griping the US is that they have a hard time getting milk and products into Canada as we do have barriers so to speak barring that and therefore Trump is not totally out to lunch in this regard.  They have an over supply of milk that is low priced and they want into our market, which is protected to a certain degree.  The EU have made headway with loosening the red tape to get more exposure into our market.  You just have to compare what we pay for milk and cheese here and what they pay for milk and cheese south of the border to see that there is an imbalance of sorts in the market.

 

[jmt18325]

jmt18325:
Care to backup that statement? Obama care at present is a given.

What has he accomplished so far?  His executive orders have been either general statements, or have been stopped by the courts.  His bluster of Syria and North Korea got very little done.  I don't care - it's not my ball game.  I'm only saying this in relation to us.  I wouldn't set my hair on fire over his comments.

 

[Kirkhill]

Agree.  Until the "method of accounting" is confirmed, the %GDP can be all over the place.  I for one, would like to see a more specific break down of what money goes where, including for specific "whole-of-Alliance" benefit, not just the logic/justification of "We, [insert country name here] are a Mediterranean country so 100% of our Coast Guard is a NATO contribution."

Are you sure about that, jmt?  Perhaps "direct" (as in an identifiable transfer of funds) subsidies, but I'm not so sure that there aren't notable credits that, at least to the Americans (and even between the Ontario and Quebec dairy associations) are credits that preference regional dairy production.  Family friends of ours dairy farm in Southern Ontario and the issue of credits, inter-Provincial and international dairy quotas, etc. comes up in conversation often.  I would say that if the Americans look at Canadian dairy in general the way that Ontario and Quebec look at each other, then I'm not surprised we hear what we hear from Trump.

Regards
G2G

US Dairy firms in Canada - Zero

Canadian Dairy firms in the US -

Saputo of Montreal  http://www.saputo.com/en/Our-Products/USA-Sector
Agropur of Longueil http://www.agropur.com/en/profile/plants/

Agropur is particularly interesting as it is protected by Canadian Co-Operative laws but all the Co-Operative members are in Quebec.  This despite buying up processing facilities in the rest of Canada and the US.  They don't solely process their own milk.  They are shareholders in a multi-national corporation based in Quebec.  The Western Co-Ops were all bought up by Saputo. 

Agropur looking for growth in U.S. while defending Canada’s quota system

Damon van der Linde | February 10, 2016 | Last Updated: Feb 11 9:19 AM ET

Agropur has been an outspoken defender of Canada's supply management system, which sets a quota for how much milk can be imported tariff free in order to protect farmers including the co-op's 3,367 (Edit to add Quebec) members from foreign competition.

MONTREAL — Canada’s second-largest dairy producer, the farmer-owned Agropur Cooperative, says it sees the company’s growth not here in the country, where it has defended the protectionist supply-management system when threatened with free-trade deals, but in the U.S. where it can import to international markets including north of the border.

“It’s certain that development for us will come primarily from the United States,” said Agropur CEO Robert Coallier during a news conference following the company’s annual general meeting in Montreal on Wednesday.

“This year we became one of the five largest makers of cheese and dairy ingredients in the United States. We have achieved the critical mass to become a major player.”

The Longueuil, Que.-based company reported a 26 per cent revenue increase in the past year, totalling $5.9 billion. Of that, 44 per cent of revenue came from U.S. operations.

Related
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Butter shortage forces Canada’s dairy commission to import 8.8-million pounds of butter as cream supply dries up

Agropur has been an outspoken defender of Canada’s supply management system, which sets a quota for how much milk can be imported tariff free in order to protect farmers including the co-op’s 3,367 members from foreign competition.

It spoke out against the Trans-Pacific Partnership trade deal allowing countries including New Zealand and the U.S. greater access to Canada’s dairy market amid slow-growing domestic consumption.

Dairy from Europe, New Zealand, the United States and other countries will gain access to 5.5 per cent more of the Canadian market once the TPP and  are ratified and fully take effect.

Critics say Agropur is hedging its bets by advocating for a system that protects its members while setting up shop in the U.S. and taking advantage of being able to import foreign dairy protein.

But the company says it’s only keeping up with other two major Canadian dairy players, Saputo Inc. and Parmalat, which also have U.S. operations.

“Agropur is making a case for how supply management is not working,” said Sylvain Charlebois, a professor in the Food Institute at the University of Guelph. “Agropur feels compelled to compete against Saputo and other companies, so that’s why they have to bring in cheaper protein from abroad,”

The company says it produces 30 per cent of Canadian dairy while importing 12 per cent of milk protein — proportionally less than its competitors. 

In August 2014, Agropur acquired Davisco Foods International operations, doubling its U.S. operations and increasing total milk supply by 50 per cent.

For 2015, Agropur reported a 10.2 per cent increase in EBITDA to $306 million and processed more than 5.7 billion litres of milk at its plants across North America.

“Agropur is a well-managed business, but politically they’re stuck between a rock and a hard place right now because of supply management,” Charlebois said.

Along with its dairy farmer ownership, Agropur also has high-powered backers in Quebec, including the Caisse de dépôt et placement du Québec.

Last December, the co-operative received $300 million from a team investors led by Quebec’s public pension fund manager, putting the group’s total contribution at $770 million.

Nice work if you can get it.  Government protected fortress at home. Freedom to sally forth at will.

http://www.foodincanada.com/features/the-big-cheese/

And Saputo is also in Australia

http://www.saputo.com/en/Our-Products/International-Sector/Dairy-Division-Australia