Bosnia and Kosovo: More Pomeranian grenadiers needed as peacekeepers?

[MarkOttawa]

Things are getting complicated:

All eyes on Kosovo, but Bosnia can prove greater threat to Balkan stability
http://www.iht.com/articles/ap/2007/11/09/europe/EU-GEN-EU-Bosnia.php

As the West tries to solve the future of Serbia's breakaway province of Kosovo, another related, and perhaps more dangerous threat to European security is lurking in the background — a possible disintegration of Bosnia, officials and analysts warn.

The ethnically divided country is in turmoil, with Bosnian Serbs protesting reforms proposed by the top international administrator to boost the power of central institutions.

The Serbs, who control half of Bosnia, are hinting they may try to split the former Yugoslav republic in two if Kosovo is allowed to secede from Serbia. It was a similar Serbian breakup bid in the 1990s that triggered the worst bloodshed in Europe since World War II.

Diplomats fear that EU support for Kosovo secession may add to Balkan instability, prodding the Bosnian Serb Republic's prime minister, Miroslav Dodik, to press for independence of the Serb-controlled mini state in Bosnia...

While in Bosnia itself:

Fundamentalist Islam Finds Fertile Ground in Bosnia
http://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/0,1518,516214,00.html

The Dayton Peace Accords called for the removal of foreign combatants from Bosnia after the Balkans war. But hundreds of mujahedeen fighters stayed, and today they are successfully spreading their fundamentalist Islamist views...

Wahhabism is quickly gaining ground in the country, with polls showing that 13 percent of Bosnian Muslims support the conservative Sunni Islam reform movement. The movement is financed primarily by Saudi Arabian backers, who have invested well over a half-billion euros in Bosnia's development -- especially in the construction of over 150 mosques. The 8,187 square meter (88,124 square foot) King Fahd Mosque in Sarajevo alone cost €20 million ($29 million), and it's also where radicals go to pray...

Mark
Ottawa

 

[time expired]

Sorry,the modern version of the Pomeranian grenadiers (Bundeswehr)
are not interested.Fortified vacation camp in A-stan,and Mediterranean
cruises off the coast of Lebanon are quite enough, thank you.Have you
thought of asking the Americans?.
                             Regards

 

[MarkOttawa]

time expired:  Well there might be some Pomeranians with 235 Germans now in Bosnia:
http://www.euforbih.org/eufor/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=145&Itemid=62

Plus amongst the over 2,000 in Kosovo:
http://www.reuters.com/article/latestCrisis/idUSL02234114

Mark
Ottawa

 

[time expired]

MarkOttawa
                True enough ,but I would not depend on them participating
if the lead begins to fly.My opinion is based on my day to day observation
of the political debate here in Germany concerning any deployment of
troops.I am afraid the days of Bismarck's Pomeranian Grenadiers,are for
better or worse, over.
                                  Regards
                           

 

[The Bread Guy]

Lotsa recent rumblings in the last week or so, indeed.....

"Among the greatest risks is that Kosovo’s ethnic Albanian majority will declare unilateral independence next month from Serbia, prompting Bosnian Serbs to hold a referendum on independence for their half of Bosnia, known as the Serb Republic.  The Serb Republic’s secession, and the reaction of the Muslim-Croat federation, which comprises the other half of Bosnia’s territory, would be especially dangerous because of the growth of privately held arms caches, diplomats said."

"As many as 10,000 Bosnian Serbs gathered on 29 October across Bosnia's Republika Srpska entity to protest a recent decision by the international community that in some parts of the country is seen as much-needed reform, but here is seen as another attempt to strengthen state institutions at the expense of Bosnian Serb autonomy."

"Croatian President Stjepan Mesić has weighed in on the ongoing crisis in Bosnia ....  A week into the political turmoil caused by reactions from Banja Luka and Belgrade to High Representative Miroslav Lajčak's latest measures, Mesić told Croatian Radio that the Republic of Srpska (RS) leadership wished to see disintegration of Bosnia-Herzegovina."

"Bosnian Prime Minister Nikola Spiric resigned Thursday in protest at an international envoy's decision to impose EU-backed reforms, deepening the country's worst post-war political crisis.  "I have submitted my resignation to Bosnia's presidency," Spiric, an ethnic Serb, told journalists.  Spiric said he was forced to make the move because of changes introduced last month by Miroslav Lajcak, the international community's High Representative to Bosnia.  The envoy's measures, aimed at improving the efficiency of Bosnia's central government, provoked outrage among Serb leaders, who said they would diminish their influence at the federal level and allow for Muslim domination."

 

[Edward Campbell]

This is a European problem and one of the Eurogroups (EU, Council of Europe, etc) should be willing and able to step in and resolve it.

If, as I suspect it will, NATO fails in Afghanistan then it may need to take on the Balkans in order to be relevant to anyone for anthing. The advantage of withdrawal to the Balkans is that the Eurotrash can ask the North Americans to do the heavy lifting* while they criticize from the safe sidelines.


----------
* I reiterate what I have said before: the problem is not the European soldiers - the Italians and Spanish are, man for man, just as brave as their American and Dutch counterparts and the French and German generals are no worse than their British and Canadian counterparts. The problem is that the European peoples have decided that combat operations are not for them, unless and until they can see (clearly) that their vital economic interests are threatened.

 

[George Wallace]

Looks like teething problems to me.  European Nations who didn't traditionally partake in UN Peacekeeping in the past are now deploying out of the safety of their homelands and taking on the roles of peacekeeper/peacemaker.

Perhaps this will be the "Make or Break" of the EU desire to create and maintain a Euro Corps?  Will they be strong enough and coordinated enough to maintain the peace in their own corner of the world, so that they can venture out and assist in other parts of the world.?  Changing times.  New and inexperienced players entering the game.  How else will they learn the ropes?

 

[X-mo-1979]

I wonder why we didnt remove the very saudi looking "citizens" from places like czin (spelling)when we were there.It was also common knowledge that the huge mosque in sarajevo had extreme literature for sale by its front gate.

Everyone I talked to about Bosnia agreed it would slip back when we left,and it sure looks that way.At least Croatia got their stuff together.

 

[The Bread Guy]

The advantage of withdrawal to the Balkans is that the Eurotrash can ask the North Americans to do the heavy lifting* while they criticize from the safe sidelines.

Canadian national caveats, anyone? 

Maybe that's Ruxted-worthy - what should CAN do if (or when) Kosovo/Bosnia/Serbia blow up?

I wonder why we didnt remove the very saudi looking "citizens" from places like czin (spelling)when we were there.It was also common knowledge that the huge mosque in sarajevo had extreme literature for sale by its front gate.

It sounds like they're trying, but given that many are now Bosnian citizens, and an-already tinderbox environment in Bosnia from OTHER issues begging for one more disgruntled group (one with proven mayhem-making skill sets) to tip it into madness (again), it may not be so easy to turf 'em.

- edited to fix spelling mistake -

 

[Brad Sallows]

For once, let Europe move its own latrines.  If Europe can't manage this crisis, it will be fair to essentially ignore European criticism of other interventions in future.  The entry price of criticizing foreign interventionism is the will and ability to do so oneself on occasion.

 

[MarkOttawa]

time expired: Quite.  My use of "peacekeepers" in the title was a tad ironic, even sarcastic.

E.R. Campbell: Of course the main problem in Europe is the politicians--and the people who vote them in (as in Canada).  Democracy sure can make some things hard, but...

Mark
Ottawa

 

[MarkOttawa]

Kosovo's prime minister threatens UDI:
http://www.opinionjournal.com/extra/?id=110010866

The Kosovo status process is reaching its natural conclusion. The present negotiations come to their appointed end on Dec. 10. This will create the atmosphere for a positive and collaborative declaration of independence and prompt recognition by the international community...

Kosovo alone will declare its independence, but in an atmosphere of international satisfaction that serious negotiations have been taken as far as possible, and of a clear commitment from Kosovo to reconciliation and regional stability. This will be a very multilateral independence.

 

Russians (and Serbs) are not happy at the prospect:
http://www.eubusiness.com/news_live/1195050721.76

The international community should allow Serbia and Kosovo to reach a solution on the Serbian province's status by themselves without setting a date for an end to negotiations, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said here Wednesday.

"We have to understand clearly that the two sides alone have to come to a solution," Lavrov told a joint news conference with his Slovenian counterpart Dimitrij Rupel.

He added that current Kosovo negotiations under the helm of the international troika of EU, Russian and US mediators "have set the foundations for reaching a negotiatied solution without prejudging the result or setting a date for the conclusion of negotiations."

Lavrov warned that it would be counter-productive to back the Kosovo Albanian majority's plan to declare independence unilaterally if current negotiations fail to produce a result by December 10, a date fixed by the troika for ending talks...

He added that if the ethnic Albanian majority declared the province's independence, that would not only "affect Kosovo but also parts of Serbia and the Balkans as a whole." [emphasis added, think Bosnia]..

What a mess.

Mark
Ottawa

 

[Edward Campbell]

Kosovo's prime minister threatens UDI:
http://www.opinionjournal.com/extra/?id=110010866
 

Russians (and Serbs) are not happy at the prospect:
http://www.eubusiness.com/news_live/1195050721.76

What a mess.

Mark
Ottawa

Oh, goody!

Let's have the French and Germans and Russians sort this one out. They made the original mess.

 

[BF1]

MarkOttawa
                True enough ,but I would not depend on them participating
if the lead begins to fly.My opinion is based on my day to day observation
of the political debate here in Germany concerning any deployment of
troops.I am afraid the days of Bismarck's Pomeranian Grenadiers,are for
better or worse, over.
                                  Regards
                           

During the entry into Kosovo in 1999, the Germans were aggressive and quickly dominated their AOR.  Don't underestimate their reaction to a territory such as Kosovo which could easily become sympathetic (more sympathetic?) to radical Islamic elements who would love a secure launching point in Europe for operations against European nations.  Added to this, it is open source knowledge that Kosovo is a major transhipment point for Heroin coming from SE Asia into European markets. We have to keep in mind that the Kosovar view is that the UCK liberated Kosovo with the help of NATO, but also remember that the UCK was listed as a terrorist organization prior to the 1999 NATO offenxive.

 

[Reccesoldier]

Whats in it for Canada?  Kosovo and Bosnia have practically no meaning for us.  We have not been attacked by the UCK or the MUP, here in Canada and we don't share a border with either of them.

There is for all intents and purposes no danger of an ideologically driven fanatical group rising up in either one of those enclaves to strike out at the world.  Bosnian Muslims are not cut from the same cloth as some Middle-eastern ones as the failed attempts of the Mujahadeen to stir up fundamentalism during the Balkans war proved.

We've got no dog in this fight, North America should sit back and watch, no matter how ugly it gets.

 

[Edward Campbell]

...
We've got no dog in this fight, North America should sit back and watch, no matter how ugly it gets.

I agree.

It is time for Europe, broadly, to stand up for itself. This is a serious problem within Europe and big, rich, sophisticated Europe must be up to the challenge or it must collapse into a pile of stinky brown stuff.

There is no reason for anyone in North America to do anthing except shake their heads in dismay and, maybe, smile behind their hands.

 

[ggranatstein]

I recently had the honour of serving in the Muslim part of Bosnia (Una Sana Kanton). The Wahabi influence is over-stated. Bosniaks (Bosnian Muslims) are smart people, they'll take money from whoever is willing to give to them. The B Serbs use the threat of Wahabis to foment their political base. When they get stirred up, well, it stirs up the Bosniaks as well. The situation in Kosovo is not helping. It's ALL politics and IMHO, the politicians are to blame ENTIRELY.

Two anecdotes:

1) In the town I was working (Bihac), a Saudi Prince commissioned a $1 million madrassa and mosque. He sent over the plans and the cash - it was to be built to exact specifications. He came for the grand opening some time later. He was quite happy, but asked the locals who built it- "Where's the second floor?" The Bosnian contractors (all Muslims) had managed to siphon off a whole floor's worth of money... Moral:The religion isn't important for them, it's about the $ and feeding their families.

2) EVERY SINGLE person I spoke to felt that if peacekeepers left, war would break out. Having EUFOR there is good - but they do not trust the Europeans. They actually (in my area) trust Canadians a great deal. There are hard feelings against the Dutch, Germans, French, etc, but not the Canadians. They trust us and feel that we don't have any bias, precisely because we're from so far away.

Anyways... my two cents... I grew to love that country and it's people. I'd go back in a heartbeat if it would prevent another war.

 

[armoured recce man]

Maybe but i remember a small village around Travnik were you could virtually think of you're self as being in A'stan (burka and all) and if i recall we arested one guy which passport wasn't Bosnian (think more Iranian ) that wasn't really please with our presence overthere,and when the Brits search is house they've found some cool ( and dangerous ) stuff , that village is not far from the babanovatch ski station which is really nice. and Yes some of them are in it for the money and families but remember that Bihac is not home for radicalism but some part of bosnia is

 

[MarkOttawa]

Kosovo UDI Dec. 10?
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/cc980382-95d8-11dc-b7ec-0000779fd2ac.html?nclick_check=1

Former guerilla leader Hashim Thaci claimed victory in Kosovo’s parliamentary elections at the weekend and said that he would declare independence “immediately” after December 10, when internationally mediated talks on the province’s future status are set to conclude...

“Immediately after December 10, Kosovo’s institutions will declare the independence of Kosovo,” he said in his victory speech a few hours after polls closed...

The US and most European Union member states say independence under EU-led supervision would be the best way to stabilise the whole troubled West Balkan region. But Serbia’s ally, Russia, blocked the detailed pro-independence transition plan at the UN Security Council earlier this year, shaking Kosovo Albanian leaders’ confidence about waiting for the international community to resolve the status question...

The bigger picture:
http://observer.guardian.co.uk/comment/story/0,,2212854,00.html

At the heart of the gathering crisis is the future status of Kosovo. The military intervention there in his first term is widely seen as Tony Blair's 'good' war - as against his 'bad' one in Iraq. The West acted to save persecuted Muslims. There was no dodgy dossier or mention of weapons of mass destruction. There was no oil at stake. Though there are these obvious differences, there is also a common lesson from Kosovo and Iraq. Wars are much easier to win than the peace. Intervention can be effective - as it was in Kosovo - in preventing the slaughter of civilians. Military action can remove dictators, as that conflict helped to trigger the removal of Slobodan Milosevic. But once a war is over, it is politics that has to deliver an enduring settlement.

Eight years after Nato drove out the Serbian forces, the future of Kosovo is still contested. Europe has a massive stake in getting this right. Apart from the threat of renewed conflict, most of the overland drug and people trafficking routes go through the Balkans. Islamist terrorism is another reason for anxiety. The Balkans have been a training ground for jihadists. The European Union's long-term plan is to extend membership to all the ex-Yugoslav states, binding them into democracy, the rule of law and prosperity. Failure to peacefully resolve the future of Kosovo could be catastrophic and yet it is hard to see how success can be achieved.

The Kosovo Albanians - the vast majority of the province - want independence from Serbia. The most that Belgrade says it can tolerate is a loose autonomy. Europe, for all its pretensions to speak with one clear voice to the world, is divided. Greece and Spain have been wary of the idea of Kosovo becoming Europe's newest state. Madrid does not like to give encouragement to its own Basque secessionists. Greece is agitated about Macedonia. Britain and France and most of the rest of Europe favour an independent Kosovo under the novel concept of EU supervision designed to guarantee good behaviour towards its minorities.

Adding both complexity and peril, the future of Kosovo is entangled in the new Cold War between Washington and Moscow. America backs independence. Russia, traditional ally of the Serbs, is against. There was an attempt to come to a settlement earlier this year. It foundered when Russia declared that it would use its veto on the UN Security Council to prevent conditional independence for Kosovo.

Time is now very short. The mandate for the EU's peacekeeping force in Bosnia expires this week and it is contested whether it can legally continue if the Russians wield their veto. There is a 10 December deadline for agreement in Kosovo. It is almost universally expected there won't be any agreement. Then the really scary stuff threatens to start happening.

The Kosovans are talking about making a unilateral declaration of independence from Serbia. That could set off an explosive chain reaction throughout the western Balkans as the Serb minority in Kosovo revolts and the government in Belgrade backs a breakaway by the Serbs in Bosnia. I don't like to predict the worst, but there is good reason to be fearful in a region seething with nationalist rivalries and ethnic hatreds and where thousands keep Kalashnikovs in their cupboards. One of the starkest warnings has come from the commander of the EU forces in Bosnia. He has talked about the need for Europe to be able to intervene militarily 'in the event of another outbreak of war' [emphasis added]...

Mark
Ottawa

 

[MarkOttawa]

German views:

'Peace in Kosovo Was Never More than a Ceasefire'
http://www.spiegel.de/international/germany/0,1518,518186,00.html

Former guerilla leader Hashim Thaci has won elections in Kosovo and says he intends to declare independence by December. German commentators say that could mean that war is on the horizon.

The initial results indicate that the PDK won 34 percent of the vote, eclipsing the moderate League of Democratic Kosovo (LDK) which only won 22 percent of the vote.

Ethnic Serbs, who make up 10 percent of the province's 1.5 million inhabitants, boycotted the elections [emphasis added], but turnout overall was alarmingly low at just 45 percent. Doris Pack, a member of the Council of Europe's election monitoring team, said it was a reflection of people's "profound dissatisfaction." "People in Kosovo are really fed up with their political situation," she told Reuters...

Thaci has said that he would declare independence from Serbia after Dec. 10, the date on which international mediators are due to report to the United Nations on their efforts to resolve the province's final status. "With our victory today begins the new century," Thaci told cheering supporters on Sunday. "We showed that Kosovo is ready to move forward towards freedom and independence."

Since 1999 Kosovo has been under UN control and Serbia has offered broad autonomy to the region but the Kosovo Albanians say they will accept nothing less than independence. European politicians urged Kosovo not to rush to declare independence in the light of the PDK victory...

German commentators on Monday are pessimistic about Kosovo's future and many newspapers predict that violence will once again flare up in the region...

Conservative daily Die Welt writes.

"The elections do not mark the end of the Kosovo crisis, rather they mark the way towards difficult conflicts, which could become violent. The consequences will not be confined to the Balkans."..

"If the north of Kosovo, which is mostly inhabited by Serbs, splits off from Kosovo and rushes into the open arms of Serbia, then the forces will be unleashed that showed their strength during the wars that marked the break up of Yugoslavia from 1991 and which could only been subdued from the outside -- with force."

"Is the EU and NATO ready for this? And where will the frontlines form? Firstly the Republika Srpska will break away from Bosnia-Herzevognia. The Europeans are involved there as they are in Kosovo -- in order to preserve a peace that was never anything more than a ceasefire."

Mark
Ottawa