Belarus Instability - August 2020

[stellarpanther]

Poland should be concerned. The big Russian bear might be on the march.

Is this just an opinion or have you seen something that show's Russia has begun mobilizing troops on the Polish border?  As I've said before, Russia will not attack a NATO country knowing it will bring  response from all of NATO.  That said, I don't think the west should attempt to back them into a corner and provoke them either.

 

[OldSolduer]

Is this just an opinion or have you seen something that show's Russia has begun mobilizing troops on the Polish border?  As I've said before, Russia will not attack a NATO country knowing it will bring  response from all of NATO.  That said, I don't think the west should attempt to back them into a corner and provoke them either.

So you have a neighbour that's known as a bully and you've made a pact with other neighbours to keep this guy at bay, but they are a bit "waffly" on the agreement. And you neighbour has been known to punch the others in the nose occasionally, thus making them a bit "waffly".

I don't think Russia will attack Poland but maybe that's not what the Poles think.

 

[FJAG]

So you have a neighbour that's known as a bully and you've made a pact with other neighbours to keep this guy at bay, but they are a bit "waffly" on the agreement. And you neighbour has been known to punch the others in the nose occasionally, thus making them a bit "waffly".

I don't think Russia will attack Poland but maybe that's not what the Poles think.

Russia invaded Poland three times in the last century - once in 1919/20 and again in 1939. When they came back in after driving the Germans out in the mid 1940s, they ended up hiving off large parts of Poland and not leaving for some 50 years until the 1990s. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polish%E2%80%93Soviet_War

One can see where the Poles might be a bit twitchy.

:cheers:

 

[Donald H]

Russia invaded Poland three times in the last century - once in 1919/20 and again in 1939. When they came back in after driving the Germans out in the mid 1940s, they ended up hiving off large parts of Poland and not leaving for some 50 years until the 1990s. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polish%E2%80%93Soviet_War

One can see where the Poles might be a bit twitchy.

:cheers:

So true, but they did leave Poland.

I have a new idea for this topic:

The Russians, not the Soviets, have no intention of invading any country and occupying it. Especiallly not a Nato one because of 'an injury to one,................', etc.
And it's likely that the status quo could have continued to exist in the Crimea if Russia's hand hadn't been pushed to the point of them having to give up their naval base on the Black Sea.

However, that issue would require a new thread, if one doesn't exist already.  And for now I won't follow you any further off-topic with Poland/Russia contemplation.

 

[suffolkowner]

Russia invaded Poland three times in the last century - once in 1919/20 and again in 1939. When they came back in after driving the Germans out in the mid 1940s, they ended up hiving off large parts of Poland and not leaving for some 50 years until the 1990s. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polish%E2%80%93Soviet_War

One can see where the Poles might be a bit twitchy.

:cheers:

All the Poles that I know(these are or were older individuals) hated the Russians with a passion orders of magnitude greater than anything expressed to the Germans

 

[FJAG]

So true, but they did leave Poland.

I have a new idea for this topic:

The Russians, not the Soviets, have no intention of invading any country and occupying it. Especiallly not a Nato one because of 'an injury to one,................', etc.
And it's likely that the status quo could have continued to exist in the Crimea if Russia's hand hadn't been pushed to the point of them having to give up their naval base on the Black Sea.

However, that issue would require a new thread, if one doesn't exist already.  And for now I won't follow you any further off-topic with Poland/Russia contemplation.

The Russian leadership will do anything that they think that they will be able to get away with. They've done it over and over again and will not hesitate to push the envelop if it is their interest.

Have a read of this

What makes you think that they were "pushed" into giving up their naval base on the Black Sea. Russia and the Ukraine entered into several agreements whereby the Black Sea Fleet was split and based. During the post Soviet era that fleet deteriorated significantly because of lack of funding. The leasing of facilities for the Russians to use in Sevastopol were extended until 2042 with an additional five-year option. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_Sea_Fleet While there was some dispute as to whether or not the extensions signed by the pro-Russian Yanukovych, there was no move by the new Ukrainian regime to oust the Russians who under the old treaties could have stayed until 2017 anyway. Russia's actions had much more to do with the Ukraine's recent more favourable view to engaging in economic relationships with the EU.

The discussions about Hungary, Czechoslovakia, Georgia, Poland and the Ukraine are clearly on-topic when discussing Belarus as it shows a pattern of behaviour by Russia that should be of concern to all former Soviet block countries.

:cheers:

 

[The Bread Guy]

... they did leave Poland.

They left Ukraine a while back, too, yet here we are

... Russia will not attack a NATO country knowing it will bring  response from all of NATO ...

... The Russians, not the Soviets**, have no intention of invading any country and occupying it. Especiallly not a Nato one because of 'an injury to one,................', etc.

Well, one can be forgiven if one of the founding NATO members can be seen, off and on, as less than fully supportive, right?  True, that ship may have changed course, but any level of doubt is all that's needed to sow more doubt - and uncertainty.  And if anyone has a firmer statement of #POTUS45 saying they'll come to bat if needed against the Russians, I'll be happy to be corrected.

Meanwhile, lines in the sand?

Warning: Moscow Sets Conditions for Kinetic Intervention in Belarus Through New Information Operation

(...)

Lukashenko will likely use force against protesters on Sunday, August 23. The opposition is preparing for a large protest on Minsk’s Independence Square on August 23 from 2:00 – 7:00 pm Minsk time. Opposition leader Svetlana Tikanouskaya urged protesters to prepare for August 23 protests in an August 21 press conference, her first full press conference since fleeing to Lithuania on August 11.[22] Belarusian news outlet Nasha Niva reported Belarusian Defense Minister Victor Khrenin said the Belarusian army could use lethal weapons against protesters in a secret meeting with Belarusian military officers on August 19.[23] Belarusian security forces with Kremlin support will likely crack down on the Sunday march.[24]

The Kremlin will likely intervene with force if Lukashenko loses control of the situation again. Lukashenko will likely “ask” the Kremlin for deeper intervention if protesters reconsolidate and threaten Lukashenko’s control over Belarus or if Belarusian security services defections resume. The Kremlin currently holds significant leverage over Lukashenko and may send its security forces into Belarus without Lukashenko’s consent if it perceives its objectives are threatened.

A deeper Russian intervention into Belarus under the pretext of protecting Belarus against “foreign interference” from NATO may not end at Belarus’ borders. The Kremlin may seek to additionally destabilize NATO allies Poland and Lithuania with hybrid operations below the threshold of an invasion.

A deeper Kremlin intervention would likely result in a “soft annexation” of Belarus. Lavrov and Makei discussed Putin and Lukashenko’s “agreements” during their call.[25] The “agreements” may refer to recent concessions Lukashenko made to Putin under duress while Lukashenko was losing control over Belarus before the Kremlin’s intervention. The Kremlin seeks to integrate Belarus into Russia via the existing Union State treaty.[26] The Kremlin seeks to establish permanent strategic Russian bases in Belarus postured against Ukraine and NATO.[27] Lukashenko will likely be forced to concede to Kremlin desires after having resisted them for several years.

(...)

** - Yeah, I know they're different countries, but some of the history leads one to believe the DNA's still pretty related.  Besides, if they really wanted to shake the USSR's legacy, they could have passed on the USSR's permanent seat at the Security Council, nyet?

 

[OldSolduer]

We have the luxury of never being invaded by large foreign bully nations.

 

[MilEME09]

Make no mistake, sunday will be bloody, the question is, will security forces defect on mass, if they do we could see Russian forces take their place. In which case public opinion could turn against Russia for supporting a corrupt dictatorship.

 

[Donald H]

Well, one can be forgiven if one of the founding NATO members can be seen, off and on, as less than fully supportive, right?  True, that ship may have changed course, but any level of doubt is all that's needed to sow more doubt - and uncertainty.  And if anyone has a firmer statement of #POTUS45 saying they'll come to bat if needed against the Russians, I'll be happy to be corrected.

I didn't want to just assume that a discussion on the Crimea/Ukraine would be considered on-topic here but I see that question has been cleared up now.

To address your link on Trump's position early on as regards Nato participation by the US. I would put that down to him being completely out of touch with reality and not understanding how valuable Nato is to the US. And then his turnaround after he was informed where had to eat crow over that mistake. And it wasn't just that one time that he threatened withdrawal of the US from Nato, and the UN as well.
However, I may be able to defer to a better theory if you have one?

Trump has taken some curious positions which deserve some analysis. Not only did he fail to buy into the 'bounty of Americans' issue with the Dems who are screaming bloody murder over it, just today he's remaining silent on the 'Navalny' conspiracy. Or 'conspiracy theory',  depending on which side a person takes on their politics.

 

[Donald H]

The Russian leadership will do anything that they think that they will be able to get away with. They've done it over and over again and will not hesitate to push the envelop if it is their interest.

Have a read of this

What makes you think that they were "pushed" into giving up their naval base on the Black Sea. Russia and the Ukraine entered into several agreements whereby the Black Sea Fleet was split and based. During the post Soviet era that fleet deteriorated significantly because of lack of funding. The leasing of facilities for the Russians to use in Sevastopol were extended until 2042 with an additional five-year option. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_Sea_Fleet While there was some dispute as to whether or not the extensions signed by the pro-Russian Yanukovych, there was no move by the new Ukrainian regime to oust the Russians who under the old treaties could have stayed until 2017 anyway. Russia's actions had much more to do with the Ukraine's recent more favourable view to engaging in economic relationships with the EU.

The discussions about Hungary, Czechoslovakia, Georgia, Poland and the Ukraine are clearly on-topic when discussing Belarus as it shows a pattern of behaviour by Russia that should be of concern to all former Soviet block countries.

:cheers:

You mentioned older Polish people siding with Germans as opposed to Russians. I find that very curious if you're not talking about people who chose to stay in Poland. The older Polish people who came to Canada, 70 to 80 or so, are very adamant on their hate of Russia and Russian (the S.U.) because they were escaping communism.

One Polish Canadian I know who lived right next door to Auschwitz-Birkenau is outspoken about his dislike of Russia and Russians. Although it's worth mentioning that he's married to a German woman.

 

[FJAG]

You mentioned older Polish people siding with Germans as opposed to Russians. I find that very curious if you're not talking about people who chose to stay in Poland. The older Polish people who came to Canada, 70 to 80 or so, are very adamant on their hate of Russia and Russian (the S.U.) because they were escaping communism.

One Polish Canadian I know who lived right next door to Auschwitz-Birkenau is outspoken about his dislike of Russia and Russians. Although it's worth mentioning that he's married to a German woman.

That wasn't me, that was Suffolkowner who said that.

It just so happens that I was born German with a father from Berlin and a mother who came from a part of East Prussia that is now a part of Poland. My mom's family's answer to the Soviets was to vote with their feet and go west in 1945. I personally know no Poles (other than the odd Polish-Canadian from Toronto when I was growing up there as a teen) and wouldn't presume to speak for them.

:cheers:

 

[The Bread Guy]

... To address your link on Trump's position early on as regards Nato participation by the US. I would put that down to him being completely out of touch with reality and not understanding how valuable Nato is to the US. And then his turnaround after he was informed where had to eat crow over that mistake. And it wasn't just that one time that he threatened withdrawal of the US from Nato, and the UN as well.
However, I may be able to defer to a better theory if you have one?

I'm actually good with this theory in a glass-is-half-full way - you hope people can learn, especially those with that level of influence/power, right?  The glass-is-half-empty part of me, though, has seen Trump take too many (what look to me like) from-the-hip positions that counter earlier statements, or those of others in the administration, to be less than fully confident right now.

Make no mistake, sunday will be bloody, the question is, will security forces defect on mass, if they do we could see Russian forces take their place. In which case public opinion could turn against Russia for supporting a corrupt dictatorship.

Any chance of a "Poland Before Solidarity Rule" solution here? 

VERY rough comparison, but in both countries (Belarus now, Poland in the early 1980's), you have leaders who may not be as anti-Big Neighbour as they could be if they wanted even a modicum of independence, but not without some anti-Big Neighbour sentiment. 

I'd put Poland's dial @ a pro-Western setting in that period, while I see Belarus' dial more at a "we don't want to be part of Russia, but we're not inclined to join NATO, either" spot. 

If Lukashenko's own forces do enough of the dirty work, might it keep the Big Neighbour out?

 

[The Bread Guy]

Meanwhile, tidbits from RUS state media ....

• "The Canadian government is considering all options to support the Belarusian people in their determination to hold new presidential elections, Canadian Foreign Minister Francois-Philippe Champagne wrote on Twitter* on Friday ..."
• "(RUS ForMin) Lavrov tells Swedish top diplomat unacceptable to impose mediation on Belarus"
• "Lukashenko affirms Putin has mutual understanding of situation in Belarus - He pointed out that "the Belarusian issue is no less important for Russia than it is for Belarus" ..."

... and BLR state media

• "Call on international community to respect sovereign choice of Belarusian people"
• "Moscow residents held a rally to show support for Belarus in front of the Belarusian embassy in Moscow on 21 August, BelTA has learned.  Participants of the rally formed a human chain. They were wearing white T-shirts with the images of the Belarusian flag, Aleksandr Lukashenko's portrait, and the slogan “For Lukashenko! For brotherly Belarus!” and waving red-and-green flags with the Belarusian emblem ..."
• "While talking to the staff of Agrokombinat Dzerzhinsky on 21 August, Belarus President Aleksandr Lukashenko commented on the developments in and around Belarus and the role of Western states in them ..."
• "By severing integration ties with Russia, quitting the Eurasian Economic Union and the Union State, Belarus will head towards, like Ukraine, industrial collapse, political columnist Vladimir Kornilov said in an interview with BelTA. Vladimir Kornilov previously headed the Ukrainian branch of the CIS Institute and witnessed the events of the Kiev Maidan ..."

* - Tweets attached

 

[Donald H]

That wasn't me, that was Suffolkowner who said that.

It just so happens that I was born German with a father from Berlin and a mother who came from a part of East Prussia that is now a part of Poland. My mom's family's answer to the Soviets was to vote with their feet and go west in 1945. I personally know no Poles (other than the odd Polish-Canadian from Toronto when I was growing up there as a teen) and wouldn't presume to speak for them.

:cheers:

sorry for the mistaken identity.

 

[The Bread Guy]

... will security forces defect on mass, if they do we could see Russian forces take their place ...

Not quite en masse, but not zero, either - time will tell.

... In which case public opinion could turn against Russia for supporting a corrupt dictatorship.

op:

Meanwhile, some of the latest ...

• "Warning: Lukashenko Mobilizes Military to Western Border as Local Protest Organization Emerges " (Institute for the Study of War)
• "Lukashenko orders military to react without warning to violations of western border " (RUS state media)
• "Belarus: Nato denies foreign troops are on border" (BBC)
• "In case of violation of order and peace in the sacred places, the protesters will have to deal with the army, Defense Minister Viktor Khrenin said ..." (BLR state media, in Russian)
• "Lukashenko gives law enforcement agencies two days to restore order in Belarus" (RUS state media)
• "The opening ceremony of the sixth International Army Games in Belarus was held today in the memorial complex "Brest Fortress-Hero" ... Representatives of seven countries - Belarus, Armenia, Vietnam, Russia*, Serbia, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan - are participating in ARMI-2020 ..." (BLR state media, in Russian) 
• "AP Explains: Why revolt in Belarus is different from Ukraine" (Associated Press)

* - - Wonder if they're all accounted for taking part in all the events? 

 

[suffolkowner]

You mentioned older Polish people siding with Germans as opposed to Russians. I find that very curious if you're not talking about people who chose to stay in Poland. The older Polish people who came to Canada, 70 to 80 or so, are very adamant on their hate of Russia and Russian (the S.U.) because they were escaping communism.

One Polish Canadian I know who lived right next door to Auschwitz-Birkenau is outspoken about his dislike of Russia and Russians. Although it's worth mentioning that he's married to a German woman.

I think we're saying the same thing here? I'm not suggesting that I'm speaking for all Eastern Europeans, just the half dozen or so neighbours and friends that I've had. These are individuals that either came here as children after the war or the parents/grandparents came in from after WW1 to after WW2. A couple are coming by today to fire off a couple rounds and talk about moose hunting, Trudeau and I'm sure the situation in Belarus will come up too ;D

 

[The Bread Guy]

Tidbits from the various info-machines ....

• "Lukashenko: Army will protect Belarus from external threats" (BLR state media)
• "Lukashenko condemns attempts to bully police" (BLR state media)
• "Lukashenko: They are rocking the boat in Belarus first to take on Russia afterwards" (BLR state media)
• "There is a lot of fake news about the current situation in Belarus, especially the actions of the riot police, Belarus President Aleksandr Lukashenko said as he attended a rally in Grodno on 22 August ..." (BLR state media)
• "The Belarusian Defense Ministry has prevented balloons with anti-government symbols, launched from Lithuania, from illegitimately crossing into the country’s airspace, the ministry said in a statement on Telegram on Monday ..." (RUS state media)
• "Two members of Belarus’ opposition coordination council, Olga Kovalkova and Sergei Dylevsky, were detained on Monday on charges of organizing an unauthorized rally, as follows from a post on Kovalkova’s Facebook account ..." (RUS state media)

... and from MSM ...

• "Belarus protests continue despite crackdown" (BBC)
• "Lukashenko seen with rifle as thousands of Belarusians take to the streets in protest" (The Telegraph)
• "Lukashenko watches from helicopter as tens of thousands protest in Minsk" (Irish Times)
• "Belarus protests grow: More than 200,000 rally in central Minsk" (Al Jazeera English)

More of the latest here.

 

[The Bread Guy]

Some of the latest ....

• "Belarus Moblizes Reservists As Police Round Up Opposition Activists" (Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, USA-funded media)
• "Belarus’ Defense Ministry informs foreign military attaches about army drills" (RUS state media)
• "Kremlin Refuses to Comment on Lukashenko's Appearance With Assault Rifle Near Presidential Palace" (RIA Novosti, RUS state media)
• "Ukrainian journalist: Any color revolution starts with a peaceful protest" (BLR state media)
• "Ukraine's MFA explains fundamental difference between Revolution of Dignity in Ukraine, protests in Belarus" (UKR media)
• "Belarus and Lukashenko = Romania and Ceausescu" (Pravda, RUS Communist media)
• "Might Belarus become the next Syria?" (pro-RUS news/commentary site)

 

[The Bread Guy]

A bit of the latest ....

• "Belarus activists jailed, country's supreme court rejects election appeal" (Reuters via CBC)
• "BELARUSALERT – DAY 17 - First sentences, intriguer Lavrov, little green men" (The Warsaw Institute, generally anti-RUS Polish think-tank)
• "Belarussian army ready to defend country against internal threats, says Defense Ministry - (T)he chief of the Belarussian Armed Forces’ General Staff, Alexander Volfovich said the country will not permit "the defilement of our monuments and attempts to ruin the education system, intimidate citizens, paralyze transport links, and spoil the moral values of our wonderful youth" ..." (TASS, RUS state media)
• "Analyst: NATO organizes up to 50 exercises near Belarusian borders every year" (BLR state media)
• "Opinion: Work of American and European special services is visible in Belarus" (BLR state media)
• "Ukrainian analyst: West will not be friends with Belarus, it will control it" (BLR state media)