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Belarus Instability - August 2020

Things are heating up:

Vladimir Putin threatens to intervene in Belarus to support 'Europe's last dictator' Viktor Lukashenko as 200,000 people pour onto the streets protesting his 'rigged' reelection
- People called poured onto streets of Belarus calling for President's resignation
- President Viktor Lukashenko launched a brutal crackdown after claiming victory
- Now Kremlin is looking at using a joint defence treaty with Belarus to intervene

Russia could intervene in Belarus to back up the country's beleaguered President as hundreds of thousands of people poured onto the streets to demand his resignation.

President Viktor Lukashenko, often dubbed Europe's last dictator, has launched a brutal crackdown after claiming victory in an election that was widely seen as fixed.

Now the Kremlin is looking at using a joint defence treaty with Belarus to intervene to put down the protests.
...

His 26-year-long rule is under serious threat by the ongoing unrest and the protests have been described as the largest in the country's post-Soviet independence.

Russia is prepared to assist and 'solve the problems that have arisen' from 'external pressure', comments that show the Kremlin is backing Lukashenko and his claims that the protests are part of a Western plot to oust him.

He has claimed that Poland, Latvia and Lithuania are involved in a 'build up of military might' on the country's borders and in response his regime has announced military exercises close to the Lithuanian frontier.

Yesterday he said: 'NATO troops are at our gates. Lithuania, Latvia, Poland and our native Ukraine are ordering us to hold new elections.


Mr Lukashenko added that Belarus would 'die as a state' if new polls were held. ...

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8633931/Hundreds-demonstrators-pour-streets-Belarus.html

:worms:
 
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-53796436?at_campaign=64&at_custom1=%5Bpost+type%5D&at_medium=custom7&at_custom4=8B400694-E06D-11EA-A27E-36C096E8478F&at_custom3=BBC+News&at_custom2=facebook_page&fbclid=IwAR25Az3f9vkWYuk7O6I5cRFmtpakM5tKFNjAJvwDT4u89dbDuSRUqs0uHHQ


-State TV employees walked off the job to protest censorship and the vote

-200,000 protestors marched in the capital

- at a pro government rally, some said they were forced to attend or loose their jobs.


If this goes pear shaped, you bet your ass Russia will roll the tanks in to keep their last buffer state. That said the protests are not pro or anti Russian, they are anti Lukashenko.

Lukashenko has made comments that suggest the only way he will give up power, is if he is dead. Unless he backs down, the risk of the situation escalating is very high, if we see on mass defection of the police and military Lukashenko is done. If russian state tv turns on Lukashenko, he will be gone in a week.
 
The latest: https://www.rt.com/news/498219-lukashenko-new-elections-belarus-constitution/

Lukashenko promises a new election after a new constitution is  adopted.

This could be his attempt t stall things for a while. Otherwise, I don't quite understand his intent. Maybe somebody else does?
 
It probably is a stall, along with a combination of desperation and self-preservation. He probably is hoping the  cossacks arrive in time to put down an insurrection.
 
Old Sweat said:
It probably is a stall, along with a combination of desperation and self-preservation. He probably is hoping the  cossacks arrive in time to put down an insurrection.

Yeah, I would agree Old Sweat, but the wild card this time is in Putin not showing complete support for Lukashenko. So now we need to look for that support to develop over time. Or not?
 
Donald H said:
Yeah, I would agree Old Sweat, but the wild card this time is in Putin not showing complete support for Lukashenko. So now we need to look for that support to develop over time. Or not?

One has to remember that Lukashenko has been playing a tight game with the Russians for some time. On the one hand he's absolutely dependent on Russia to prop up Belarus's weak economy while on the other he's been trying to stay as independent as possible from Russia's political control to the point of becoming very cool to the Kremlin after the Ukraine issues.

If I was to take a wild guess, I would think Putin may be looking for someone else in Belarus who is more overtly Russia friendly while at the same time popular enough to keep the public on board.

:cheers:
 
I agree, Putting may get cozy with the opposition in order to keep the next government in his pocket, then remove Europes last dictator.
 
FJAG said:
One has to remember that Lukashenko has been playing a tight game with the Russians for some time. On the one hand he's absolutely dependent on Russia to prop up Belarus's weak economy while on the other he's been trying to stay as independent as possible from Russia's political control to the point of becoming very cool to the Kremlin after the Ukraine issues.

If I was to take a wild guess, I would think Putin may be looking for someone else in Belarus who is more overtly Russia friendly while at the same time popular enough to keep the public on board.

:cheers:

Good analysis IMO FJAG, and so now we'll have to wait to see if  Viktar Babaryka is in Putin's pocket or Nato's pocket. Or maybe neither?

Viktar was btw, the most popular candidate before he was jailed for (treasonous activity?) I think.
 
Being friends with Putin really is a tightrope walk of death, isn't it?

On his good side?  You get military goods, Russian support for your economy, and I'd presume the odd hangout on his yacht with some very pretty ladies who seem oddly attracted to you.


Not on his good side?  Nice knowing ya mate.
 
CBH99 said:
Being friends with Putin really is a tightrope walk of death, isn't it?

On his good side?  You get military goods, Russian support for your economy, and I'd presume the odd hangout on his yacht with some very pretty ladies who seem oddly attracted to you.


Not on his good side?  Nice knowing ya mate.

Yes, that's exactly how it works and the yacht could be a hotel room in Moscow with the pretty ladies. But the point  this time is the question of whether Putin was trying to make friends with Yakushenko?

If you have the answer, can you expand on it to clear up the mystery?
 
A bit more ...
Russian President Vladimir Putin warned European leaders to stay out of the Belarus crisis on August 18 to consolidate Russian management of the situation. French President Macron and German Chancellor Angela Merkel discussed Belarus with Putin in separate calls the morning of August 18.[1] Putin warned both leaders that Russia would not accept any “external attempts” to interfere in Belarus or pressure Lukashenko. Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov additionally called German Foreign Minister Heiko Maas and reiterated similar talking points.[2] The Kremlin will attempt to dominate likely negotiations over a potential transition government in Belarus and block any European involvement.

An opposition leader speaking on behalf of Sviatlana Tikhanouskaya softened anti-Russian rhetoric and offered to work with the Kremlin on August 18. Opposition representative Maria Kolesnikova gave an interview to Russian radio station Echo of Moscow on August 18, expressing Tikanouskaya’s willingness to work with the Kremlin.[3] “Volunteers” attempting to diffuse protests the night of August 17 initially attempted to contact Kolesnikova, who is a representative of Tikanouskaya and associate of likely Kremlin-linked Belarusian opposition figure Viktor Babariko. Kolesnikova questioned Lukashenko’s willingness to enter serious negotiations on a new government before she emphasized that Russia is a reliable partner. Kolesnikova stated “Russia is an important foreign policy and economic partner for [Belarus]” and promised the opposition would respect “all existing agreements,” contradicting Tikanouskaya’s previous statements that she would reverse Belarusian integration with Russia under the Union State framework.[4] Kolesnikova further stated Lukashenko’s tensions with Russia demonstrated his unsuitability to lead Belarus and promised the opposition is ready to “build mutually beneficial relations” with Russia.

(...)

Lukashenko attempted to reassert control over security forces and factory workers. Defections from Lukashenko’s government continued August 18, with the ambassadors to Spain and Slovakia speaking out against Lukashenko, though Lukashenko likely retains his core powerbase.[10] The Belarusian government published a list on August 18 signed by Lukashenko of over 300 security personnel awarding them for “exemplary service” against the protests.[11] Lukashenko likely took this action to secure the support of the security forces – both by awarding them for their service and dissuading defections by linking them to his regime. Factory bosses are successfully dissuading workers in several key factories, including industrial giant Minsk Tractor Works (MTZ), from joining national strikes by threatening to fire them.[12] The Belarusian government additionally organized a series of pro-Lukashenko rallies around the country for the afternoon, ordering civil servants to attend.[13] These protests are currently ongoing.[14]

Lukashenko’s prospects for remaining in power may be increasing, but he clearly sees Tikhanouskaya as a major challenge. Lukashenko appears less likely to be directly deposed by the protest movement than had been the case over the previous 72 hours, although the situation remains very dynamic. Lukashenko seems to retain overall control over the security forces and his base of support despite defections and dissent, although he has been careful not to order his security services to take action that would force them to demonstrate their loyalty or disloyalty. He is attempting to stave off a combined government with Tikhanouskaya, denouncing the members of Tikanouskaya’s Coordination Council as criminals and Nazis, and claiming it is a front for a violent seizure of power.[15]

The Kremlin may prefer a transition to Tikhanouskaya, however, given Lukashenko’s previous opposition to Union State integration and her apparent new willingness to accept it.  Tikanouskaya expressed clear willingness to work with the Kremlin in a transition government which the Kremlin would likely be able to manipulate.  If she and NEXTA work together to manage the protest movement they may be able to bring mass demonstrations back to force Lukashenko’s hand if and when she is ready to move.  If the confusion of August 17 and 18 demoralize protesters and Lukashenko is able to use factory managers to keep workers from joining demonstrations, however, Tikhanouskaya could lose the power base she might require to force Lukashenko to cede power ...
 
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/08/18/risks-russian-intervention-belarus/

While this seems a potential extreme, if this went pear shaped, NATO will likely get caught flat footed due to politics.
 
GR66 said:
Things could get ugly if there is popular resistance to the government and the Russian "little green men".

...are those the equivalent to America’s “little multicam men”?  ;)
 
MilEME09 said:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/08/18/risks-russian-intervention-belarus/

While this seems a potential extreme, if this went pear shaped, NATO will likely get caught flat footed due to politics.

One of the great values in having Trump as their president is that Trump and Putin can sort out their differences over the phone. Something that Biden would never attempt to do.

If the situation worsens then this issue could become a big part of the US election politics.
 
https://calgaryherald.com/pmn/news-pmn/crime-pmn/belarusian-leader-orders-police-to-put-down-protests/wcm/69234e89-4e06-4cba-9bdf-2bdcebdead44?utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Facebook&fbclid=IwAR3wvuTT09nbVqm999OJEhJQPqn4qPRijk6LTsSH07EfInajF121Po67jlA#Echobox=1597847570


Well this is going to be a blood bath
 
Seeding the media landscape via BLR state media BelTA...
Meanwhile, in the western bits of Belarus ...
Possible message to NATO:  don't even think about it?  :pop:
 

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Poland should be concerned. The big Russian bear might be on the march.
 
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