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Baby Boomers vs Millenials

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Altair

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recceguy said:
If you can't afford to have children, don't have them.
I have no dog in that fight,  but I think the problem here is people are not having kids because they can't afford them.

The birth rate drops as a result,  which leads to having to bring in more immigrants,  which ironically,  pisses off the same people who don't like free daycare.


.*** DS: Split topic and edit topic  ***
 
Altair said:
The birth rate drops as a result,  which leads to having to bring in more immigrants,  < snip >

For reference,

QUOTE

Feb 8, 2017

Low fertility rates mean Canadian growth relies on immigration
http://www.macleans.ca/news/canada/low-fertility-rates-mean-canadian-growth-relies-on-immigration/
1971 was the last year when the average number of children matched the 2.1 replacement level needed for the population to renew itself, without being bolstered by immigration.

Without a sustained level of immigration, it says Canada’s growth rate could be close to zero in 20 years as the population ages and projected fertility rates lag replacement level.

END QUOTE
 
Altair said:
I have no dog in that fight,  but I think the problem here is people are not having kids because they can't afford them.

The birth rate drops as a result,  which leads to having to bring in more immigrants,  which ironically,  pisses off the same people who don't like free daycare.

We have 36 million people. We can afford to be in the negatives for a while.

 
Jarnhamar said:
We have 36 million people. We can afford to be in the negatives for a while.
which leads to a shift in demographics,  more older people who don't work,  and less working age young people paying taxes to support them.

Also a massive drag on economic growth. Most economists agree that keeping the country at replace rate is ideal,  and if one is to follow said doctrine,  there are only two ways to do it.

Make is easier and more affordable for young people to have and raise kids(I,  personally,  will only have one)  or invite in more immigrants. I'm fine with either,  but in order to keep things running smoothly,  the government needs to choose at least one.

Otherwise you end up like Japan. For the record,  Japan is not happy about the shrinking population,  but they are not one for mass immigration either and as such are facing a massive demographic crunch.

http://nationalpost.com/news/world/a-place-for-the-state-in-the-bedrooms-of-the-nation-how-japan-is-tackling-its-plummeting-population-problem

Within a decade, scholars predict, one third of Japanese people will be 65 or older. By 2035, half will be single. By 2040, half of Japan’s municipalities could die out, with one in three houses abandoned. The current population of 127 million will dip below 100 million before 2050.

The trend can be mitigated though not fully reversed. Rather than upend a strict immigration system, Japan’s government is focused on raising the birth rate.
The birth rate of 1.44 can’t sustain the population. A June 2016 “Plan for Dynamic Engagement of All Citizens” seeks to raise it to 1.8 and maintain a population of 100 million. To address a growing labour shortage, it seeks better work-life balance for women and more employment for seniors. A new set of reforms will cost the Canadian equivalent of $33.3 billion, facilitated by a tax increase starting next year.
 
For those who are unhappy with conservatives and liberals moving to be right and left wing parties as opposed to right-of-centre and last-of-centre, I invite you to have a look at some of the other parties registered in Ontario:
https://www.elections.on.ca/en/political-entities-in-ontario/political-parties/registered-political-parties-in-ontario.html

Visit their webpages to see their platforms; some parties will not be what your biases would cause you to guess from reading the party name and in other cases ... well, the commies are commies and the enviro-vegans are crazy, as you would guess.

If you find a party that offers a platform preferable to the current state of the big 3, then find out who your local candidate will be.  And if there is no local candidate (and you are not currently RegF), maybe consider offering to run under their banner.
 
Jarnhamar said:
We have 36 million people. We can afford to be in the negatives for a while.


If most were under the age of 30 sure. But we have an aging population.  Demographics isn’t just about one number.  If most of your population is old or will be old soon you can’t afford to be in the negatives for any length of time.
 
Altair said:
which leads to a shift in demographics,  more older people who don't work,  and less working age young people paying taxes to support them.

Also a massive drag on economic growth. Most economists agree that keeping the country at replace rate is ideal,  and if one is to follow said doctrine,  there are only two ways to do it.

I though I recall reading 'old people' were the most wealthy demographic in Canada now. Incorrect?

But if we're talking about having less young people working to be able to support old people who don't, does that mean we should look at limiting our social assistance programs to be less attractive (and perhaps available), to already citizens, immigrants and especially refugees?

By my logic bringing in a family of 6 and them not finding employment and just receiving welfare for the next 5,10,15 years wouldn't really be giving back to the economy?

 
Jarnhamar said:
I though I recall reading 'old people' were the most wealthy demographic in Canada now. Incorrect?

But if we're talking about having less young people working to be able to support old people who don't, does that mean we should look at limiting our social assistance programs to be less attractive (and perhaps available), to already citizens, immigrants and especially refugees?

By my logic bringing in a family of 6 and them not finding employment and just receiving welfare for the next 5,10,15 years wouldn't really be giving back to the economy?
which is better for the country you think, having 6 kids,  maybe one doesn't find work,  or having one kid and companies unable to expand due to lack of available labour?

The latter kills economic growth and as a double whammy,  the older cohort gets more expensive the more of them stop working. Our health care system alone could near bankrupt the nation if we keep  providing the current level of care with less people available to pay for it.

So its either babies or it's immigrants. anything else and everyone is going to pay for it. Older Canadians will suffer from reduced services and benefits,  younger Canadians will get taxed like never before to help keep those older Canadians alive.

So instead of recceguy saying don't have kids if you can't afford it,  it may be don't get old unless you can afford it.
 
recceguy said:
There is one inefficiency Doug Ford could save billions on, by shutting down the HRC.

And I'd pay money to be the guy that gets to roughly escort them out the door.  Like I told them when I was getting hauled in front of them, 'You people only exist to find evil, even if it isn't there, just to justify your jobs".  Fortunately I could prove 100% that the things I supposedly did could not have happened, as I had switched shifts for months and months, to never be in the building at the same time as the harasser.  What did I get?  "based on the balance of probabilities these events did not occur".........and then I really lost my mind. :whistle:
 
http://nationalpost.com/news/canada/ontario-liberal-budget-appears-to-work-new-poll-shows-pcs-unable-to-capture-majority

The Ontario Liberals’ new spendthrift budget appears to have worked. According to a new poll from Forum Research, the party has closed the lead of the Progressive Conservatives.

The Liberals now have 29 per cent support to the Tories’ 36. According to Forum projections, if an election were held tomorrow, Doug Ford would not be able to win enough seats for a majority.

The rise in Liberal fortunes appears to be due in part to the party sapping support from the NDP. Thursday’s poll showed that the popularity of the party of Andrea Horwath had diminished slightly to 26 per cent.

Although the party experienced a brief spike after the departure of Brown, their fortunes appear to have fallen with the selection of Doug Ford as leader.
So it begins.

Liberals up.

NDP down.

PCs down.
 
Our healthcare costs (electives like knee replacements and palliative care) will bankrupt us regardless of economic growth in coming years. 

If it were me:

1.  Doctor assisted suicide needs to be approved asap (after seeing my grandmother post-stroke, that's actually as much a moral view as an economic view).  Not to mention seeing the palliative bill for her after in essence she was "gone" was eye-opening.  This was 10 years ago and my recollection was it was $390k.

2.  Electives like quality of life knee and hip replacements so seniors can continue to play golf and tennis needs to be subject to a means test and if you deductable would increase as your net wealth increases)

There are a lot more, but that's a start.....
 
Altair said:

The Liberal strategy is the past 10 years has been exactly this- out left the NDP to take votes from them and wait for the Conservatives to score own goals and push moderate/fiscal conservatives and more NDP/green voters into the Liberal camp. Possibly unfortunately for the Ontario PC party Doug Ford has lots of time to score own goals. There hope is that he can stay out of anything controversial and not push more NDP voters to vote Liberal to keep social conservative issues out of the province.

The PC need to learn that social conservatism doesn't play in Ontario outside of rural areas and they dont need rural areas to win.
 
Jarnhamar said:
By my logic bringing in a family of 6 and them not finding employment and just receiving welfare for the next 5,10,15 years wouldn't really be giving back to the economy?

It is hard to find directly comparative stats, but those that are available suggest that this may not be a fair characterisation...

http://www.statcan.gc.ca/pub/11f0019m/11f0019m2016375-eng.htm

http://www.statcan.gc.ca/pub/11-626-x/11-626-x2015051-eng.htm

https://www.thespec.com/news-story/2222361-10-myths-about-immigration/

And a good counter to the Grubel report....

http://torontonorthlip.ca/sites/torontonorthlip.ca/files/MythsAboutImmigrants-phase1-report-final.pdf

 
Altair said:
which is better for the country you think, having 6 kids,  maybe one doesn't find work,  or having one kid and companies unable to expand due to lack of available labour?

The latter kills economic growth and as a double whammy,  the older cohort gets more expensive the more of them stop working. Our health care system alone could near bankrupt the nation if we keep  providing the current level of care with less people available to pay for it.

So its either babies or it's immigrants. anything else and everyone is going to pay for it. Older Canadians will suffer from reduced services and benefits,  younger Canadians will get taxed like never before to help keep those older Canadians alive.

So instead of recceguy saying don't have kids if you can't afford it,  it may be don't get old unless you can afford it.

I'm going to take a guess and say if it weren't for the old cohort, the young cohort would have to start working. Indulge my tin foil and common sense, while I try explain my personal feelings on the subject. It was the older cohort that paid for and supported, with their taxes, those programs and social engineering experiments and government initiatives. It is our money in OAS and CPP. It's our money that Wynne and Trudeau are pissing away. Who is paying for everything right now? Us old cohort are still paying our way, in increase taxes to give away our money to those that won't work. If future generations are going to be paying for our electricity and needs today, that is the governments fault not ours. I've never voted socialist in my life, but young people will, because the government promises to give them our money. Current examples of Wynne and Horvath promises to spend billions and none to the people paying for it. Who the hell is going to pay for that?

Maybe the young cohort wouldn't be so large today if our governments hadn't made us old cohort pay for all these youngsters that won't work and think we owe them something.

The fact that people get old and need taking care of seems to slip the minds of those that the old cohort has supported their whole lives. And I'll be paying for them until I die.

Simple tit for tat. You can't blame the old cohort. It's not, just, the increasing numbers of old people retiring that causing the strain. It's the increasing amount of young people, immigrants legal and illegal, 3rd generation welfare and the tax and give socialist programs that are at fault so far as I'm concerned.

Old people, mostly, have the experience and forethought not to spend more than we earn and I'll be making more in retirement than when I worked. I just need a better way to keep it out of the hands of the communists.

Now, I'm not saying it's all one way or another, but the idea that old people would be a burden, because the young will have to foot our bills is nonsense. It will be burdensome on the young though, because they've already spent the money we gave them to put aside for us.

Hope that makes some sort of sense to some.



 
recceguy said:
I'm going to take a guess and say if it weren't for the old cohort, the young cohort would have to start working. Indulge my tin foil and common sense, while I try explain my personal feelings on the subject. It was the older cohort that paid for and supported, with their taxes, those programs and social engineering experiments and government initiatives. It is our money in OAS and CPP. It's our money that Wynne and Trudeau are pissing away. Who is paying for everything right now? Us old cohort are still paying our way, in increase taxes to give away our money to those that won't work. If future generations are going to be paying for our electricity and needs today, that is the governments fault not ours. I've never voted socialist in my life, but young people will, because the government promises to give them our money. Current examples of Wynne and Horvath promises to spend billions and none to the people paying for it. Who the hell is going to pay for that?

Maybe the young cohort wouldn't be so large today if our governments hadn't made us old cohort pay for all these youngsters that won't work and think we owe them something.

The fact that people get old and need taking care of seems to slip the minds of those that the old cohort has supported their whole lives. And I'll be paying for them until I die.

Simple tit for tat. You can't blame the old cohort. It's not, just, the increasing numbers of old people retiring that causing the strain. It's the increasing amount of young people, immigrants legal and illegal, 3rd generation welfare and the tax and give socialist programs that are at fault so far as I'm concerned.

Old people, mostly, have the experience and forethought not to spend more than we earn and I'll be making more in retirement than when I worked. I just need a better way to keep it out of the hands of the communists.

Now, I'm not saying it's all one way or another, but the idea that old people would be a burden, because the young will have to foot our bills is nonsense. It will be burdensome on the young though, because they've already spent the money we gave them to put aside for us.

Hope that makes some sort of sense to some.

Actually, in terms of debt and the older generation, the baby-boomer generation was where the welfare state was created. Programs from 1940 on, including the creation of unemployment insurance (1940), Old Age Security (52), Canada Pension Plan (65), and equalization. The prevailing fiscal reasoning was that the high economic growth of the post-war era would continue indefinately, funding the massive increase in spending. As stated in the linked Frasier institute paper, " The role of the state as the provider of core public goods within a liberal market economy had shifted to one of government as a source of redistribution and social investment" (Frasier, 47).

In terms of pure debt burden, in 1945 Canada had a deficit of $2.123 billion CAD but the end of the war saw expenditures go down, with sales and revenue going up due to the inability of European nations to produce due to war damage and the advantage of foreign debt payments from the war (same as in the US). This led to 6 consecutive surpluses from 1946 to 1951. In spite of this, between 1945 and 1973 Canada's net debt rose from $11.3 to $22.6 billion due to increased social spending. Moreover, in 1955 38.24% of spending was on defence, not including 5.18% of spending being on veterans (!). By 1967 defence accounted for 15.63% and veterans benefits to 3.16%, while health rose from 1.66% to 4.88%, old age security from 7.6% to 12.33%, welfare from .62% to 2.22%, education assistance from .21% to 1.01%, and other welfare and social assistance from 1.81% to 2.98%. Spending was so out of hand that in spite of an economy that grew roughly ~8%/year the government was still generally running deficits to pay for social programs for that generation (baby boomers). This problem was then pushed to the next generations as economic development slowed from 1973-1996. This era saw the massive deficits that have become more commonplace begin to support those social programs listed above and resulted in a $2.2 billion deficit in 1973 to a high of a $39 billion in 1992 (PC). By 1990, Canadian spending was at a level where welfare accounted for 13.6%, old age security 11.02%, health 5.25%, family allowances 5.2, and public debt charges to 26.03% of the total budget. This meant that social spending accounted for 37% of total spending, with social spending and debt accounting for 63.03% of Canada's budget, in a year where millenials would have been anywhere from 5 years of age to not yet born.

So, it is clear that the baby boomer era did in fact create the debt problem that exists today and in large part has been handed to the new generations to deal with. With the expected massive spending requirements to get the baby boomers through their golden years this present will become more exacerbated as the reality that OAS, which was designed for when people died younger is increasingly stretched due to longer life expediencies. So, your generation did not support the social spending through your taxes, but rather through increased debt which has ballooned the level of debt repayment. The baby boomer generation created a series of social spending programs which were based on unrealistic GDP models and were unwilling to cut them when the model changed in 1973. If the old cohort wants to blame someone for the current debt issue they should look in a mirror. So, in sum, yes, the younger generation CAN blame the older cohort. There was no money "put aside" for them- only massive debt.

While Trudeau (and Wynne provincially) certainly wont improve this, neither did Harper when he racked up massive deficits.

https://www.fraserinstitute.org/sites/default/files/federal-fiscal-history-canada-1867-2017.pdf
 
None of that is relevant. Us Old baby boomers paid our way and we still are. The benefits, and pitfalls, of every facet of society, in the last 75 years was pretty well invented by us. So while the millennials have picked up our debt, the same way we picked up the debt for the war(s) and the debt for the advancement for society to this point. No millennial gave us all the vaccines, no millennial gave us the advances we enjoy today.

So each generation, carries forward the debt of the previous ones. Each generation makes advancements that are a boon to the next. Each generation leaves a portion of their debt to the next. This is not an old white guy and millennial argument. It is the same argument that every generation has.

Today's baby boomers are not screwing the millennials any worse than the greatest generation did us. The millennials will be blamed the same way the baby boomers are now.

This is not something BBs invented.
 
recceguy said:
I'm going to take a guess and say if it weren't for the old cohort, the young cohort would have to start working. Indulge my tin foil and common sense, while I try explain my personal feelings on the subject. It was the older cohort that paid for and supported, with their taxes, those programs and social engineering experiments and government initiatives. It is our money in OAS and CPP. It's our money that Wynne and Trudeau are pissing away. Who is paying for everything right now? Us old cohort are still paying our way, in increase taxes to give away our money to those that won't work. If future generations are going to be paying for our electricity and needs today, that is the governments fault not ours. I've never voted socialist in my life, but young people will, because the government promises to give them our money. Current examples of Wynne and Horvath promises to spend billions and none to the people paying for it. Who the hell is going to pay for that?

Maybe the young cohort wouldn't be so large today if our governments hadn't made us old cohort pay for all these youngsters that won't work and think we owe them something.

The fact that people get old and need taking care of seems to slip the minds of those that the old cohort has supported their whole lives. And I'll be paying for them until I die.

Simple tit for tat. You can't blame the old cohort. It's not, just, the increasing numbers of old people retiring that causing the strain. It's the increasing amount of young people, immigrants legal and illegal, 3rd generation welfare and the tax and give socialist programs that are at fault so far as I'm concerned.

Old people, mostly, have the experience and forethought not to spend more than we earn and I'll be making more in retirement than when I worked. I just need a better way to keep it out of the hands of the communists.

Now, I'm not saying it's all one way or another, but the idea that old people would be a burden, because the young will have to foot our bills is nonsense. It will be burdensome on the young though, because they've already spent the money we gave them to put aside for us.

Hope that makes some sort of sense to some.
Young people of today have yet to reach the seat of power,  and vote less than older Canadians do. You know who spent all that money?  It wasn't us.

Who elected those governments?  Hmmmm.

(We'll take responsibility for trudeau)

That said,  while supporting older Canadians will be costly,  I never said don't do it. But the only reasonable way to do it is by increasing the birth rate or bringing in inmmigrants. I really don't care which.
 
recceguy said:
None of that is relevant.

So each generation, carries forward the debt of the previous ones. Each generation makes advancements that are a boon to the next. Each generation leaves a portion of their debt to the next. This is not an old white guy and millennial argument. It is the same argument that every generation has.

Actually it was very relevant.

And this part of your reply is one I agree with.  The problem though is that the BB generation stopped having kids.  Affordability, vaccines, advancements etc all contribute to having less kids.  So the angry white guy that rails against immigration stopped having over 3 kids thus depriving the cycle of able bodied people to keep the cycle of debt passing and advancement passing to the next enervation.  Hence why we need to get the, elsewhere.  Doctors, engineers etc etc.  The baby boomers basically stopped booming.

 
recceguy said:
None of that is relevant. Us Old baby boomers paid our way and we still are. The benefits, and pitfalls, of every facet of society, in the last 75 years was pretty well invented by us. So while the millennials have picked up our debt, the same way we picked up the debt for the war(s) and the debt for the advancement for society to this point. No millennial gave us all the vaccines, no millennial gave us the advances we enjoy today.

So each generation, carries forward the debt of the previous ones. Each generation makes advancements that are a boon to the next. Each generation leaves a portion of their debt to the next. This is not an old white guy and millennial argument. It is the same argument that every generation has.

Today's baby boomers are not screwing the millennials any worse than the greatest generation did us. The millennials will be blamed the same way the baby boomers are now.

This is not something BBs invented.

But it IS relevant though. Regardless of race (not sure why that matters...) the fact of the matter is that the welfare state created in the post WW2 era and maintained through the lifespan of the baby boomers is the key contributor to the current fiscal issues faced by Canada. This system spent it's way through an unprecedented period of economic growth than attempted to spend its way through the inevitable slowdown caused by the rest of the world catching up. Your generation DID NOT pay it's way through- it financed it's way with debt that was passed on to the next generations. The same economic incompatibility that meant those programs weren't sustainable in the height of economic growth apply today. While you're right that BBs didn't invent deficit spending, they seemingly perfected it.
 
I don't think it was baby boomers that saddled us with the debt of three wars and other skirmishes, but here we are. Our generation has expanded human knowledge and explored more of the earth and solar system, than any previous. We are responsible for the whole computer thing. Element of our generation are also responsible for the welfare state. Each generation is the same. They have advancements and pitfalls like every other.

But today, it's all about "Not my fault, you owe me." The same attitude that permeates the socialist welfare system.

The only political decisions I feel, even remotely, responsible for are ones by the conservatives.

I have never voted socialist or communist. Decisions by that bunch have absolutely nothing to do with me, except they use my money to pay for it..

This is not an aberration where the millennials are being screwed by the BB's. It happens to every generation.

We just have more people willing to work, compared to the give me everything millennials. They complain because they are running out of our money. Let me correct that. They HAVE run out of everyone else's money.
 
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