All things Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV)

[CBH99]

Rick Hillier leaving Ontario vaccine roll-out project at the end of March:

'I think I am going to put a ball and a chain around his ankle to keep him:' Hillier set to depart March 31

The retired military general who was chosen to lead Ontario’s vaccine rollout will complete his duties at the end of the month, leaving the job vacant as million of residents still wait for their turn to roll up their sleeves.

www.cp24.com

Maybe he's done all that he can do?

The prioritization and schedule of vaccinations based on age and need. Vaccines ordered, and distributed to vaccination centers. A booking system so people can make their appointments. And moving forwards, a tentative schedule as to when future demographics will be allowed to get vaccinated.

While there may be some more stick handling required, maybe the thrust of what needed to be done is either done now or properly planned for/scheduled?

 

[CBH99]

Pfizer exec sees 'significant opportunity' to increase COVID vaccine price for annual booster shot

The exec. has previously noted current vaccine cost is unrepresentative of the company's pricing model

ottawacitizen.com

I don't have a lot of familiarity with investing in the stock market, I'm actively trying to research and learn a lot these days though.

To my simple mind, is this a good hint that investing in Pfizer would be wise? That's quite the price jump from $19.00-ish to $150-ish.


Anybody more investment savvy than I am have any insight on what the above article means, or doesn't mean, in terms of a potential investment opportunity?

 

[Rick Goebel]

Today I read a Calgary Herald article (‘I started to think this was a conspiracy.' Then she caught the virus, and everything changed) advocating for Covid precautions which had a High River MD saying “People who are frustrated enough to flout public health measures are trying to make a point, says High River physician Dr. Adam Vyse, and it’s understandable. He says many people come to these conclusions because they don’t know anyone who is infected, while at the same time are facing disruptions in their lives because of harsh and varied restrictions.” I had long thought this myself.

Yesterday, the CBC had reported at https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/edmo...a-3rd-wave-of-covid-19-hinshaw-says-1.5954874 that Dr Deena Hinshaw, Alberta Chief Medical Officer of Health had said something similar. “The reality is that it is this very fact of most people having mild symptoms that makes COVID-19 so dangerous for our communities," she said, noting that people who aren't showing symptoms pass it to friends and families, who then pass it on to others. If COVID-19 made most people who caught it extremely sick, this would make it much less likely to spread," she said.” While she was emphasizing asymptomatic or mildly symptomatic people passing the disease along, the fact that few people see sick people remains.

I decided to look into this a little more.

Alberta has, in just over a year, seen 140,823 cases of Covid in our population of 4.371,000 or about 1 in 31 Albertans (assuming 1 case per person). Some of these would have been, as Dr Hinshaw pointed out, asymptomatic people who tested positive. Others will have had just mild symptoms. Some will have been quite sick. To date, 6,286 people in Alberta have been sick enough with Covid to be admitted to hospital, about 1 in 695 Albertans. Of course, some who have had Covid have died of it. So far, a total of 1,957 people have died of Covid in Alberta, about 1 in 2,233. Source for the above numbers is the Alberta Health Services Covid Statistics page at https://www.alberta.ca/stats/covid-19-alberta-statistics.htm.

The US CDC (1918 Pandemic (H1N1 virus) | Pandemic Influenza (Flu) | CDC) says “It is estimated that about 500 million people or one-third of the world’s population became infected with this virus. The number of deaths was estimated to be at least 50 million worldwide”

I suspect that if Covid was infecting 1,457,000 Albertans and killing 145,700, everyone would be aware of the dangers and there would be no issue of non-compliance.

 

[mariomike]

I decided to look into this a little more.

It would be interesting to know if Covid deaths are undercounted.

Staggering Surge Of NYers Dying In Their Homes Suggests City Is Undercounting Coronavirus Fatalities

Deaths at home hit record numbers, but they’re not all counted in the official coronavirus toll.

gothamist.com

 

[Remius]

I keep hearing this everywhere. Who exactly thinks that choosing a career in healthcare will be smooth sailing and stress free? That’s like someone who becomes a pilot knowing they hate flying through turbulence. It’s going to happen. If you can’t stand the heat, get out of the kitchen.

When the kitchen is empty because of that sort of attitude you won’t be too happy when you need something from the pantry.

 

[Quirky]

When the kitchen is empty

This overpopulated planet could use an empty kitchen every now and then. Ever watch the purge?

 

[mariomike]

Who exactly thinks that choosing a career in healthcare will be smooth sailing and stress free?

Reminds me of a movie I went to years ago, "I don't have to tell you people times are tough. You read the papers! The country is going to hell! Now you take inflation, recession, welfare, there's nothing we can do about that. But thanks to muggings, malnutrition, assassination and disease, we got a chance to make a buck!"

The Ontario Sunshine List was released yesterday. Covid seems to have had a positive impact on the earnings of some health care workers. I recall that , financially, SARS was the best year of my career.

NOT to suggest any health care worker would enjoy pandemic working conditions.

 

[Blackadder1916]

I don't have a lot of familiarity with investing in the stock market, I'm actively trying to research and learn a lot these days though.

To my simple mind, is this a good hint that investing in Pfizer would be wise? That's quite the price jump from $19.00-ish to $150-ish.


Anybody more investment savvy than I am have any insight on what the above article means, or doesn't mean, in terms of a potential investment opportunity?

Sounds like Pfizer wishes for another Viagra windfall, but just because it may add another product line doesn't necessarily translate to a jump in its stock price or dividends. Or, perhaps the intent of such comments from its CFO may be to bump up its stock price which (according to some of the reports I've read - and I'm far from an expert or even following closely) has been underperforming over the last couple of years. While it's still one of the major players in the pharmaceutical sector, it was being held back because a lot of their lines were legacy items - monsters that dominated when the company held active patents but now that those particular drugs can be produced as generics, Pfizer is no longer the exclusive source.

Maybe it's just coincidence but I've recently noticed more advertising for a couple of Pfizer's "elective" products - Viagra (we all know what one is electing) and Prevnar 13 (that's Pfizer's pneumococcal vaccine). While Pfizer may have exclusivity for the Pneu13 vaccine, there are limitations on it's "assured" market. In those jurisdictions that provide pneumococcal vaccines as part of a public "free" program, it is aimed mainly at infants with other pneumococcal vaccines (from other manufacturers) being the primary vaccine for older persons (publicly provided pneumococcal vaccine for "healthy" adults usually starts at age 65).

Pfizer's Covid19 vaccine won't be a lone player in the marketplace - it isn't now. If (when) the pandemic subsides and if (when) a covid vaccine becomes a routine publicly supplied item (like flu vaccine is now), then Pfizer will have to compete with all the other manufacturers for those contracts. If it doesn't become a regular thing then Pfizer will have to market it as they do their other "elective" products and they, again, won't be the only player in the game.

 

[Rick Goebel]

It would be interesting to know if Covid deaths are undercounted.

Staggering Surge Of NYers Dying In Their Homes Suggests City Is Undercounting Coronavirus Fatalities

Deaths at home hit record numbers, but they’re not all counted in the official coronavirus toll.

gothamist.com

To a degree, it doesn’t matter. According to Provisional weekly death counts: Interactive tool we haven’t been experiencing catastrophic levels of deaths overall during the pandemic. It looks worse than it really is on this graph because the graph is truncated at 4500 deaths and above. Truncated graphs are not at all unusual or invalid. They do, however, emphasize change rather than showing absolute values. This can be useful to show things like the degree to which deaths in Canada tend to happen more in the winter than in the summer. It also clearly identifies the spike when Covid first appeared. Note that the chart shows ALL deaths rather than Covid deaths. The total would include influenza deaths which would be near zero for 2020 probably in large part due to Covid countermeasures. The total would include suicides which are apparently significantly down in 2020. It would also include opioid overdoses which are apparently way up. These could well be counted as Covid countermeasure deaths. The reference article Staggering Surge Of NYers Dying In Their Homes Suggests City Is Undercounting Coronavirus Fatalities contains a quote saying ““[People] may be dying because of reduced care for other non-COVID diseases” like diabetes, heart attacks or other chronic conditions, Redlener said. “Those to me, should be somehow tallied as we’re looking at the death toll of COVID.” To my mind, these deaths due to reduced care should more reasonably be counted as a death toll of Covid countermeasures rather than Covid.

It is also interesting to note that deaths during the Covid spring peak were not hugely higher than the worst two weeks in 2018.

For comparison, I have created an untruncated graph for 2018, 2019, and 2020 deaths that looks somewhat less alarming. We must note that every point between 2018 and 2019 on the one hand and 2020 on the other is an actual person who died whether unrelated to Covid, due to Covid, or due to Covid countermeasures. The untruncated chart looks much less alarming, though.

 

[Messerschmitt]

To a degree, it doesn’t matter. According to Provisional weekly death counts: Interactive tool we haven’t been experiencing catastrophic levels of deaths overall during the pandemic. It looks worse than it really is on this graph because the graph is truncated at 4500 deaths and above. Truncated graphs are not at all unusual or invalid. They do, however, emphasize change rather than showing absolute values. This can be useful to show things like the degree to which deaths in Canada tend to happen more in the winter than in the summer. It also clearly identifies the spike when Covid first appeared. Note that the chart shows ALL deaths rather than Covid deaths. The total would include influenza deaths which would be near zero for 2020 probably in large part due to Covid countermeasures. The total would include suicides which are apparently significantly down in 2020. It would also include opioid overdoses which are apparently way up. These could well be counted as Covid countermeasure deaths. The reference article Staggering Surge Of NYers Dying In Their Homes Suggests City Is Undercounting Coronavirus Fatalities contains a quote saying ““[People] may be dying because of reduced care for other non-COVID diseases” like diabetes, heart attacks or other chronic conditions, Redlener said. “Those to me, should be somehow tallied as we’re looking at the death toll of COVID.” To my mind, these deaths due to reduced care should more reasonably be counted as a death toll of Covid countermeasures rather than Covid.

It is also interesting to note that deaths during the Covid spring peak were not hugely higher than the worst two weeks in 2018.

For comparison, I have created an untruncated graph for 2018, 2019, and 2020 deaths that looks somewhat less alarming. We must note that every point between 2018 and 2019 on the one hand and 2020 on the other is an actual person who died whether unrelated to Covid, due to Covid, or due to Covid countermeasures. The untruncated chart looks much less alarming, though.
View attachment 64745

Watch and see how 2021/2022 will have less deaths than 2019/2018 because the elderly who would've died anyway within a few years died because COVID just accelerated it, thus there will be less vulnerable people to die now.

Like you said, the chart looks much less alarming because it's not. The 24hr media hysteria makes it so.

In 2025, we can take a look at deaths between 2015-2020 and 2020-2025 in the US, and we'll see the deaths avg will be pretty much the same if you make sure you adjust for the increased population between 2020-2025 compared to 2015-2020.

 

[daftandbarmy]

I don't have a lot of familiarity with investing in the stock market, I'm actively trying to research and learn a lot these days though.

To my simple mind, is this a good hint that investing in Pfizer would be wise? That's quite the price jump from $19.00-ish to $150-ish.


Anybody more investment savvy than I am have any insight on what the above article means, or doesn't mean, in terms of a potential investment opportunity?

My sister invests billions for trillionaires in a big investment house. She scoffs at anyone thinking they can make a ton of 'get rich quick' type cash through outguessing the market.

If you want to do some more responsible risk taking you might want to secure a really good financial manager, hand him/her $10k or so and say 'let 'er rip!' and see what happens.

Or online gambling

 

[OldTanker]

My son is a VP of a Canadian stock exchange. His advice? Put your money in Canadian bank stocks and don't look at them for 20 years. Been working so far. Having said that, I put a bit of mad money in Pfizer. Investment still in the red, sigh.

 

[Bruce Monkhouse]

Pinball machine prices have doubled in the last 5 years.....tripled in the last 10.
First machine I bought 8 years ago for 1400 now routinely goes for 3500 to 4200. 25 years ago people threw them in the dump...
One can never know what is a good investment and what isn't until one of them happens. I used to get derided decades ago at my old job for not buying Nortel stock....

 

[daftandbarmy]

I know a woman who has family in India. They were all vaccinated 2 months ago, and they will come to your door to do it if you can't make it in.

Meanwhile, in Canada, we're trailing Bangladesh....

Total COVID-19 vaccine doses administered

All doses, including boosters, are counted individually.

ourworldindata.org

 

[mariomike]

I know a woman who has family in India. They were all vaccinated 2 months ago, and they will come to your door to do it if you can't make it in.

Meanwhile, in Canada, we're trailing Bangladesh....

Total COVID-19 vaccine doses administered

All doses, including boosters, are counted individually.

ourworldindata.org

Got mine this morning. Mom got hers yesterday.

 

[mariomike]

In case anyone is interested,

Covid-19 deaths per 100,000 in North America as of 24 March 2021,

Canada 61.19

Mexico 157.24

United States 166.23

Mortality Analyses - Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center

How does mortality differ across countries? Examining the number of deaths per confirmed case and per 100,000 population. A global comparison.

coronavirus.jhu.edu

 

[Bruce Monkhouse]

With zero proof on my part I'm sure those numbers saved a lot of pesky investigations and autopsies.

 

[daftandbarmy]

Oh, I'm so not surprised.

Rest assured, heads will not roll ....

Public Health Agency was unprepared for the pandemic and 'underestimated' the danger, auditor general says​

​

Early agency assessments of the pandemic were oblivious to the threat: AG report​

Despite nearly two decades of warnings, planning and government spending, the Public Health Agency of Canada was not ready for the global pandemic and did not appreciate the threat it posed in its early stages, Canada's auditor general says.

In a hard-hitting review released today, Auditor General Karen Hogan took the country's primary pandemic response agency to task for failures in early warning, surveillance, risk assessments, data-sharing with the provinces and follow-up on Canadian travellers who were ordered into quarantine.

"The agency was not adequately prepared to respond to the pandemic, and it underestimated the potential impact of the virus at the onset of the pandemic," said the AG's review — one of three that looked at the Liberal government's management of the COVID-19 crisis, which as of Thursday had killed 22,780 Canadians and brought the country's economy to its knees.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/auditor-general-pandemic-covid-phac-1.5963895?ref=mobilerss&cmp=newsletter_CBC%20British%20Columbia_1633_253343

 

[mariomike]

Saw this in Politics:

Lack of supply, but city of Toronto is scrambling to fill appointments.

I'm in my 60's.

Scheduled for 09:05 last Tuesday. Arrived at 09:00. Expected a line-up. But, there was only one person ahead of me.

Shot in the arm at 09:03. ( According to the print-out they gave me. )

They were 2 minutes ahead of schedule. YMMV.

 

[brihard]

Saw this in Politics:



I'm in my 60's.

Scheduled for 09:05 last Tuesday. Arrived at 09:00. Expected a line-up. But, there was only one person ahead of me.

Shot in the arm at 09:03. ( According to the print-out they gave me. )

They were 2 minutes ahead of schedule. YMMV.

Did you perceive any 'slack' where they were waiting for the next customer at all? We're still well short of the 'shots in arms' needed to meet stated provincial vaccination targets...