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Afghanistan: Why we should be there (or not), how to conduct the mission (or not) & when to leave

Old Sweat said:
Sadly, I disagree with his one line that "the people of Canada will be haunted by the disgrace of the defeat they, themselves, administered to their own armed forces."

I can't image the psyche of the average Canadian being "haunted" by much of anything.


I fear Bob has zeroed in on a key factor - the national "what me worry" attitude. There was a story about an end year poll in one of the papers recently. It found that the Canadian people felt the rest of the world was descending into chaos - sort of a Churchillian "new dark age" [my words] - but were smuggly and serenely confident that we would avoid all the trials and tribulations in the year to come.

Probably an accurate assessment.
I believe the Canadian psyche views overseas military missions in much the same way as development aid, emergency assistance, and whatnot - a nice luxury that we can provide, sometimes, out of the goodness of our hearts.

To Canadian society, military missions are never necessary and there is almost no connection between national interest and military operations. Consciously or subconsciously part of our national ideal is that we do not use force to achieve our aims; we use int'l law, the UN, and soft power. "Wars never solve anything" is practically a national motto.
Actions by troops must always be justified by their relevance to development -- If the battle did not directly aid in building a new school/hospital or giving medical aid to children, the battle was not worth it.

Thus, we are not in Afghanistan because it is important for the national security of Canada and global stability - we're there because we're charitable, for the same good-doer reasons we were in Cyprus, Sinai, Bosnia, etc.

(As a side note: I'd even go so far as to say that many Canadian today view our involvement in WW1 + 2 as something of a vast charitable campaign, that wasn't really our war, but we were nice and helped the Europeans out.)

Due to a number of factors (failure by gov't to 'sell' the mission, bias media coverage, anti-American bias, etc) John Q. Public can only measure and evaluate the war by the one quantifiable measurement - the body count. Progress is harder to measure and is often subjective, but the body count is always exact and clear. And John Q. Public sees no gain, no advantage, for those 73 dead.

Whereas we compare and evaluate the war in A'stan in relation to a variety of campaigns, conflicts (everything from Victorian colonial wars to Bosnia in '93 to the Malayan Emergency) our friends, the General Public and the Main Stream Media, have only four basic models to compare Canada's involvement with, and a few basic (and simplistic) associations with those models:
1) Vietnam - the prime example in the public mind of waste, pointlessness. Usually the basis of comparison for journalists.
2) Iraq - seen as a copy of Vietnam, but a copy caused by the arrogance and stupidity of Dubya. To the public Iraq and Afghanistan are nearly the same place.
3) WW2 - the ideal, but also forces the public to see the army as a mass of 18 yr old conscripts. 
4) Peacekeeping - another ideal, something the public knows it likes but can't really define, and doesn't really understand. They just know peacekeeping=int'l law, no dead Canadians, and the UN.

The Canadian public has no stomach for a war, but the Canadian government and policy makers know it is necessary. The next few years will see us sorting out a balance between the two. However, I do believe the public is coming to grips with the idea that Canada should and will have a more muscular role in the world.
 
Enfield, I think you're 99.5% there!

...The [vocal] Canadian public has no stomach for a war, but the Canadian government and policy makers know it is necessary. The next few years will see us sorting out a balance between the two. However, I do believe the public is coming to grips with the idea that Canada should and will have a more muscular role in the world.

I believe there is a statistically significant number of Canadian citizens who do know, and do appreciate what is required -- that wonderful warm Pearsonian things such as 'peacekeeping' were leveraged from the experience gained through the sacrifice of 60,000+ Canadian service men and women prior to the peacekeeping 60's and 70's.  They are happy with where the government knows it must go to actually be responsible in the global community, not just where a bunch of people think we should be so that they can pat themselves on the back for what a wonderful job us 'peaceful' Canadians did in the world after Pearson formalized the use of "excess combat/destructive power" of a nation built up over generations.

Yes, Sun Tzu states that the best war is the one you don't have to fight, but influence through other strategic effects.  At times, though, evil must be held at bay -- and this is something that the vocal Canadian peace-biased citizenry would prefer not to have to accept as being a pragmatic reality in today's world.

G2G
 
I suspect the head in the sand attitude is far closer to the truth than any other explanation I have seen or heard. The blank stares I get when speaking to people about what I saw and heard over there is eloquent testament to that, and if that was not enough, read this post on Celestial Junk and ask yourself why these paragons of "goodness" and "human rights" are silent........

http://cjunk.blogspot.com/2008/01/taliban-dickheads-express-peace-of.html

06 January 2008
Taliban Dickheads Express the Peace of Islam

By torturing a small girl for not covering her head:

The deafening silence I keep waiting to be pierced is the silence of Western (L)iberals who will launch into high dungeon when the word "nigger" is uttered, or offer to negotiate truce with the scum who tortured this little girl. (L)iberals, squeal like prom queens over inane slights and vague human rights improprieties ... yet when it counts and they should be shouting from the roof tops ... they are nowhere to be found. Unless of course, it is to leave this little girl to the mercy of Islam while they "dialogue" with her tormentors.

Posted by Paul at 8:32 PM 
 
I suspect the head in the sand attitude is far closer to the truth than any other explanation I have seen or heard.
  I think of it as selective blindness.  People will accept there is evil in
a "Daddy Warbucks" figure, but can't imagine there is any threat posed by an apperantly
simple tribal  people and can't imagine that they have associates that GWB isn't friends with too.
More plainly - They would rather assume it's all about how America relates to the Arab world
rather than about how the Arab world relateds to America.
Then there is a stupid assumption that it all doesn't relate to anyone else.

Bit of a rant I know - But I need that sometimes. ;)
 
A post by Babbling Brooks at The Torch:

Literary review as an excuse to punditry
http://toyoufromfailinghands.blogspot.com/2008/01/literary-review-as-excuse-to-punditry.html

Robert Fowler doesn't think NATO can prevail in Afghanistan. He also thinks that since NATO countries don't have the will to commit to winning in Afghanistan, that we shouldn't even try.

Oh, and incidentally - and I mean incidentally - he reviews the Stein and Lang spin-job masquerading as a political history.

Read it if you must, but it's five minutes of your life you'll never get back.
http://lrc.reviewcanada.ca/index.php?page=alice-in-afghanistan

Mark
Ottawa
 
It may be punditry, but it also does a pretty fair job on destroying the arguments put forward in the book. Hopefully the Ruxtedistas will read it.
 
Actually, I liked the article.  Specifically, these 3 parts:

One of the more extreme generalizations in the book is this: “Both in Iraq and in Afghanistan, Canada’s senior military leaders did not think about the war that would ensue after the battle was over.” And, without revealing any sources or evidence, Stein and Lang state that “in Canada, the military was simply not well connected enough to those experts outside government who could provide the warning.” Clearly, DND should not have let its subscription lapse to the Briefings issued by the Munk Centre for International Studies.

A similarly unsubstantiated allegation is made with the portentous suggestion that “few in Ottawa realized at the time [February 2003] that the assignment to Kabul, and Canada’s efforts to bring NATO into Afghanistan, would draw Canada into a long-term military operation in a country where security was deteriorating. This was the first step down a long road.” How did the authors conclude that “few in Ottawa” understood there would be long-term implications in going to Afghanistan with NATO? Why would they assume that within the defence department and the Department of Foreign Affairs and International Trade there was not a world-weary and very deep understanding, honed over almost 60 years of peacekeeping service with UNTSO in the Middle East, and half that time on the Golan Heights, through more than 60 troop rotations in Cyprus, and more than a decade of peacekeeping in the Balkans, that we were in Afghanistan for the long haul?

Finally, we quit getting beat up for militarily underestimating the situation.  Considering you could find past posts by serving members on these forums from a few years back testifying that not only would Afghanistan be a long mission but that things would get hot once we moved to Kandahar, then I think it is safe to assume that military planners above my pay grade had that figured out.  Bob Fowler gives them their due.

Sure, Canadian assistance programs have put lots of Afghan children (especially girls) in school, but it is hard to argue that we are fighting and dying for this when elsewhere in the world there are millions of children who would dearly love to attend school, and where getting them there does not risk lives. And we are investing hugely in “governance” in that country although we must know that we will not soon dent Afghanistan’s profound culture of corruption. As an Africanist, I cannot help but speculate what would be the reaction in Canada to our maintaining a relationship—indeed of proclaiming it to be “the central pillar of Canadian foreign policy,” as our foreign ministry so doggedly maintains—with such a regime on the African continent.

Telling, I guess.  I'm a little more optimistic in what Afghanistan could accomplish looking at it's pre-Communist days.  Islamic radicalism is foreign to the country (as Fowler quotes Ms. Chayes) and it has existed as a stable entity in the past.  The question is has 30-years of warfare removed any chance of returning to a state similar to that one?  I guess that is what we are fighting to find out.

Stein and Lang have understood this, and conclude, rather bleakly, that “if there is no reasonable chance of containing the insurgency, then it would be impossible to justify to Canadians a continuing military commitment and the loss of the lives of Canadian soldiers.”

Where, though, have we heard any articulation of a cogent strategy to engage Pakistan effectively in the search for a manageable border with Afghanistan? Is Pakistan not at least as much the font of al Qaeda support as Afghanistan, but just more difficult?

I do not believe we can win in the conditions that inform NATO’s mission in Afghanistan. Ido not believe that those conditions are likely to change substantially. And I do not believe that the Karzai government is worthy of our support. Afghanistan—as others have learned at such cost—is simply too far away, too complex and too difficult for poorly motivated, uncoordinated and insufficiently committed western governments to fix. We have neither the stamina nor the will to prevail in such circumstances. Certainly, NATO would suffer from defeat in a long, drawn-out insurgency for which it was never designed, but it would be a defeat of will rather than of arms, and thus perhaps more severe. Denying that deficiency of will can only enhance and prolong the pain for all concerned.

It is not good enough to intone some mantra about “a defeat of NATO being unacceptable.” That will not make the spectre of defeat disappear, even if the fiction that it is NATO that is fighting in Afghanistan could be preserved. Beyond the Americans, the Brits, the Dutch and ourselves, there really is no one else fighting in Afghanistan; others are being killed as the insurgents extend their reach, but in modest numbers. We four are doing the heavy lifting and the other 30 plus are observing ever more uncomfortably.

Pretty telling indictment, and one that people should be willing to respond to if widespread support for the mission is to be found.  As Fowler said, returning Afghan kids to school isn't really a convincing enough reason to have flag-draped coffins return to Canada.
 
Actually, I think Bob Fowler is spot on, on several of his points, especially:

• Stein and Lang did, unjustifiably I believe, blame soldiers and bureaucrats for purely political blunders. I repeat what I have said elsewhere: it is inconceivable that Gen. Rick Hillier ‘turned’ some of the brightest politicians in the country (people like Paul Martin and Bill Graham) away from their intended baby blue beret peacekeeping missions in Africa and into an American style bomb ‘em back into the stone age mission in Afghanistan – to suggest that, as Lang, especially, did, is beyond nonsense, it’s political propaganda masquerading as historical analysis. Lang’s former olitical masters cannot be let off the hook quite so easily.

• The Western/NATO governments providing ISAF in Afghanistan are, indeed, exactly as Fowler says: ” poorly motivated, uncoordinated and insufficiently committed” to the business at hand, and the longer we and the few committed nations accept that situation the much more likely it is that Fowler will be right and we will fail in Afghanistan – not suddenly, we will, rather, just lose the will to “go for the gold” as Lawrence  Martin put it in an article I cited a few days ago. We’ll decide that our much touted Responsibility to Protect the weak and (rightly) aggrieved in the world is something better done by long-winded debates in New York rather than on the ground in Central Asia or Africa.

I don’t agree with Fowler that Afghanistan is not winnable. It is, but only under the very conditions he quotes Gen. Hillier as offering: “Afghanistan will not be rebuilt in a year, or two, or five. It’s going to take a long, long time. It’s going to take a generation or more.” If Canadians don’t have the stomach for the long haul then we will, surely, lose – maybe we’ll “settle for the bronze” (Lawrence Martin again) but that’s still not the same as winning and anything other than winning is losing in a counterinsurgency campaign. Fowler cites Jim Travers of the Toronto Star as saying: “There will be no decisive military victories. Victory will go to those with strategic patience and endurance.” I'm guessing that Bob Fowler doesn’t believe Canadians or their political leaders are endowed with either strategic patience or endurance; I know I don’t.

Readers should also understand that Fowler advocates a strong, even robust military role for Canada in the world – just not in Afghanistan which I suspect he thinks is of little strategic consequence and will, eventually be swept up in a greater, far more dangerous South/Central Asian realignment  possibly involving India, Pakistan, Iran and Russia and nuclear weapons to boot. Mr. Fowler, as I understand him, wants Canada to pick and choose, selectively, with our own strategic interests at the fore, tough missions, which will likely be in Africa, and then seize and hold a leadership role in them – not necessarily in UN missions but, always, with a UN mandate.
 
Edward ...

:-*

swoon

(That beats the hell out of the standard and way too used "+1" post!!)
 
E.R. Campbell:

Mr. Fowler, as I understand him, wants Canada to pick and choose, selectively, with our own strategic interests at the fore, tough missions, which will likely be in Africa, and then seize and hold a leadership role in them – not necessarily in UN missions but, always, with a UN mandate.

Er, is that not what we've been trying to do at Kandahar?  Maybe it's easier to win (at least not take too many casualties) in Africa.
http://forums.army.ca/forums/threads/64763/post-657961.html#msg657961

Readers should also understand that Fowler advocates a strong, even robust military role for Canada in the world – just not in Afghanistan which I suspect he thinks is of little strategic consequence [maudit idiot ;)] and will, eventually be swept up in a greater, far more dangerous South/Central Asian realignment  possibly involving India, Pakistan, Iran and Russia and nuclear weapons to boot.

So rather than continue to do our bit in Afstan--and, regardless of what NATO ends up doing there, I don't think the US, UK (and maybe Aussies) will give up for quite a while--we bug out to Africa whilst these great games begin.

I'm guessing that Bob Fowler doesn’t believe Canadians or their political leaders are endowed with either strategic patience or endurance; I know I don’t.

Quite.  By the way both Obama and Clinton have said they want to strengthen the US military role in Afstan.  Good on the Democrats.  As usual somewhat to the right of our Conservatives.

Mark
Ottawa


 
Personally I enjoyed the Stein and Lang book, I also like what Fowler is saying and also what you said E.R.
My goal in following these writings is simply to understand why are we there, what are we trying to accomplish and what are our future options.
I think reading the above articles and book should leave Canadians well informed on the mission and able to appreciate Hillier's comment that this is a task that will take a long long time.
The present status quo is set to become a stalemate. As Edward says in a counter insurgency war if you aren't winning you are loosing.
 
A view from what might perhaps call a Canadian blogger; I think it's a good read:

Fifteen Days
http://dodosville.blogspot.com/2008/01/fifteen-days.html

For Christmas this year I got the book Fifteen Days by Christie Blatchford from my partner. At first I was a little hesitant because I'm not much of a military guy. To be honest, I know almost nothing about the military, or war, except for a bunch of names and dates. And while I had an opinion about the Afghanistan War, I'll be the first to admit that it was less than informed. Despite this hesitancy, I read it and to my surprise I really enjoyed it. Loved it in fact. Blatchford does a great job capturing the stories of the men and women who are fighting in Afghanistan and illustrating the love they have for each other and how hard it is on them to lose their fellow soldiers. It certainly captures something I started to think about after watching Ken Burns latest documentary, The War, about the U.S. involvement in WWII - war is a terrifying endeavor and ultimately, people die, suffer, and come home changed, sometimes for the better, many times for the worse. Because of this, sending soldiers to war is something that should never be undertaken carelessly or without great thought because the costs are too high if we are wrong.

Reading the book has forced me to examine my knee-jerk opposition to the Afghanistan War. The sympathy I felt for the families and friends of those who have died was too great not to. I asked myself - is this war winnable? Is their sacrifice worth what they are achieving? Are the soldiers doing more good than bad over there? Now before I go on I should explain that I am not a pacifist. In today's world, war is something that sometimes has to be entered into - there are a lot of fucking crazies in the world and we need to protect ourselves from those people. The world had to stand up to Hitler and the Nazi's because if they didn't, one can only imagine what damage the Third Reich would have done. Saying that, I also think that today too many people are too willing to enter into war as the first and only option. Can all enemies be beaten by a military intervention? Or do some require other actions? These are questions that too many, including those in government, are willing to ask.

The War in Iraq, I believe, is for all intents and purposes a great example of a war that never should have been fought. And no, I don't love Saddam Hussein - but give me a break here. Anyone who says that the U.S. went into Iraq to depose of Hussein is a freaking liar. The U.S. invaded Iraq because they supposedly posed a threat to the free world, you know, mushroom clouds and all. And as we all found out, except for those staunch few who still believe that a missile here or a memo there are proof that Hussein was a threat, Iraq had no wmd's and was no threat to anyone. Of course, some will say that given the evidence at the time it seemed like Iraq was a threat - the problem was that it was faulty evidence. Sure, believe that if you want. Or you could take the word of Richard Clarke and others who have stated that Bush Co. targeted Iraq the day after 9/11 and cherry picked intelligence to provide the justification for invasion. The bottom line is that 4 years later, thousands of soldiers are dead, hundreds of thousands of Iraqi's are dead, the country is in chaos (despite some people telling us the surge is working) and depending on who is elected later this year, American troops could be out within 18 months - and the question will be, what have they achieved? Why did all those soldiers die? For Haliburton? For the "freedom" of those Iraqi's who may or may not be in the process of an ethnic cleansing in certain parts of the country? To spread democracy? At the end of the day, was their sacrifice worth it?

Now Afghanistan is a different war all together. It was clear that their government, the Taliban, was supporting Osama bin Laden and his group who were behind 9/11. The U.S. government had every right to defend themselves and route out the "evil-doers." And that they did (well, except for capturing bin Laden, who may or may not be dead), but then they left to invade Iraq and it was left to countries like Canada to mop up the Taliban and try and help a country that has been at war since the dawn of time to re-build. I don't think you'll find many people who opposed the war initially and I think it was the right thing to do. The question for me now is this - can we achieve our objectives in Afghanistan? Can we rid the country of the "Taliban," a label that one soldier in Blatchford's book states seems to apply to all sorts of different people, not just those who we associate as the "Taliban,"and help them re-build? Or is that objective given the nature and history of the country, an impossibility?

I have no doubt that the soldiers on the ground there have faith that they can achieve their goals and I respect them for that but truth be told, it would be a little frightening if the people doing the fighting felt that they couldn't do what they set out to do. But I also think that while the soldiers input is important, there views on their job and the war should not decide what we do or do not do - we as citizens of this country also need a say. The Canadian Armed Forces are not an autonomous force - they are representatives of our country and we still live in a democracy. Because of this, we should all have a say in what they should or should not be doing. As I said earlier, some soldiers can pay the ultimate sacrifice and our government and fellow citizens need to think deeply about that because we are all responsible if those deaths are in vain.

Now, I know that I am skirting the issue here a bit (OK, a lot) - what do I think of the war and our involvement? To be honest, I'm not really sure. Reading the stories of the soldiers it is clear that they think that they can make a difference. It is also clear that their frustration level with the mission is high - who's side are the people of Afghanistan on? Maybe it's an unfair question because as several soldiers point out, sometimes they don't tell Canadians about an imminent attack because of fear of the Taliban. Sure, Canadians are helping to build schools (which many times are then burnt down), putting on medical clinics, and engaging and killing soldiers who want to turn the country back into a theocracy - but is it enough? Can a country like Afghanistan be saved and made into a western, democratic country? Is it possible? Is it even something that the majority of Afghans want? And how long are we willing to stay there and try to achieve these objectives?6 years? 10 years? How many deaths are we willing to tolerate?And finally, are the little victories worth the sacrifice? Is providing medical assistance to a sick man worth a Canadian soldier getting a hatchet in the head?

At this point, I just don't know the answers to these questions. Part of the problem is that we get so few answers from our government and the opposition is so focused on pulling the troops out that they forget to ask the important questions (which, to be fair, probably wouldn't be answered anyway) [Alpha plus plus on all three points - Mark]. Plus the debate in this country in terms of those in favor and opposed is so acrimonious, it is worthless to engage most people to try and find some answers. So that's why I've written this - to try and find some answers. To see what people think. I'm done with the old days when I thought I knew everything - sure, I know a lot (sarcasm....), but I don't know everything and anyone who thinks they do needs to give their fucking head a shake. So there we go. Have fun and be nice.

A wee shake on my part.  Via Celestial Junk:
http://cjunk.blogspot.com/2008/01/fifteen-days-another-review.html

Mark
Ottawa
 
a letter of mine sent to the Toronto Star Jan. 8 and so far not published:

In her column about the US presidential race Linda McQuaig
http://www.thestar.com/columnists/article/291825
writes that "while Canadians like to think of Afghanistan as a very different war than the one in Iraq, the Republicans clearly see the two wars as simply twin parts in America's battle with radical Islam."

She also notes that the Democratic "candidates shied away from seriously critiquing the ideas behind Bush's 'war on terror'"

In fact, with regard to Afghanistan, the leading Democratic candidates--Barack Obama and Hilary Clinton--are more hawkish than our government, not to mention the Liberals, NDP and Bloc.

Mr Obama wants the US to send more troops "to re-enforce our counter-terrorism operations" and also wants European members of NATO to eliminate the caveats that prevent their forces from fighting.

Ms. Clinton has written that "our military effort must be reinforced. The Taliban cannot be allowed to regain power in Afghanistan; if they return, al Qaeda will return with them."

Just like the Republicans neither of them is shying away from the "War on Terror" in Afghanistan; indeed they want to go at it more vigourously. Should a Democrat become president Canada will still be a "junior partner" in that war. Not a bad thing I would say.'

References:
    http://www.foreignaffairs.org/20071101faessay86601-p30/hillary-rodham-clinton/security-and-opportunity-for-the-twenty-first-century.html
http://www.cfr.org/publication/13974/

Mark
Ottawa
 
Mark, you might have added that Obama is on record as being ready to go into Pakistan uninvited if he feels it is necessary.

The only difference between the Dems and the Republicans in the war on terror is the choice of the battlegrounds.
 
MarkOttawa said:
a letter of mine sent to the Toronto Star Jan. 8 and so far not published:

Mark
Ottawa

- The Toronto 'Red' Star only publishes progressive revolutionary works, not reactionary diatribes undercutting the heroic struggle of the workers and peasants.  You oughta know that.

;D
 
Kirkhill: Quite, but I was KISSing it ;).

Mark
Ottawa
 
After some really informed lectures I have come to the realization of how complex the Afghanistan mission really is. This idea of trying to organize a democratic government to rule the land is a not a very effective idea when one realizes the the core of Afghan culture resides in there tribes and ancient ways. We need to gain the trust and honor from the tribes in there respective areas to start to gain ground over there. We need to continue that bond of trust and friendship through all rotos. When people on here ask who are the people of Afghanistan fighting for you need to realize that the Afghan people want security and saftey for there respective tribes and areas to live there way of life, if we are not able to give this to them then maybe the "Taliban" can. I think we need to really begin to learn there culture and look back at there history as a people and see that the way we usually do business wont work and is not working, they are a patient people, very revengful people and want results they will side with whomever is giving them what they want. Just some interesting points that I have heard about and i think that if we really tap into there culture and understand what Afghanistan people are about and there history and who they really are we can defeat the extreme islamist.
 
  http://www.thestar.com/comment/article/294470

Jan 16, 2008 04:30 AM
Chantal Hébert

OTTAWA - With some help from the Liberal leader himself, Conservative strategists had a field day framing Stéphane Dion as a weakling last year. But now there are signs that he is breaking out of that box. His trip to Afghanistan last weekend was a well-executed move based on a coherent strategy and a message that resonates with a majority of voters.

Liberal strategists seem to have finally figured out that Dion needs to be seen as more than just another opposition leader. Too often over the past year, he has been busy shooting at everything that moves within the Conservative government rather than focusing on a few key issues that will matter in the next election.

As essential as the role of chief critic of the government may be to the parliamentary system, it is largely incompatible with the goal of showcasing oneself as a prime-minister-in-waiting.

Canadians only too easily see Dion in opposition. They need all the help they can get to imagine him in power. In Afghanistan and, to a lesser degree, in Bali at the December climate-change talks, the Liberal leader managed to at least give them a taste of the latter.

One message from the Afghan trip is that the Liberal caucus will not again be split by the issue. Michael Ignatieff and Dion – who were on opposing sides of the decision to extend the deployment to 2009 – are singing from the same hymn book as to its future, as is Bob Rae, the party's foreign affairs critic.

Another message is that the Liberals have largely made their bed on the follow-up to the deployment or at least on their bottom line of not supporting another combat mission. And that almost certainly means leaving Kandahar, a province that is not pacified enough for the kind of Canadian support role Dion has repeatedly sketched out.
If the group presided over by former deputy prime minister John Manley is to bring the Liberals and Conservatives under the same Afghan tent, the recommendation it will make next week will need to amount to a substantial departure from the current mission. Otherwise, the Prime Minister is unlikely to achieve a consensus on the way forward in the current House of Commons. There simply is no opposition support in sight for an extended Canadian combat role in Afghanistan.

On the basis of the Conservative critique of the Dion trip, it seems the government is still hoping to browbeat the Liberal opposition into submission. But not only will that probably fail, it also detracts from attempts to portray Harper as taking a non-partisan road on the issue.

The dismissive tone of secretary of state Helena Guergis – who railed at Dion for needing the protection of the very soldiers he would reassign away from Kandahar – and the gist of a published open letter penned by parliamentary secretary Laurie Hawn – who accused the Liberals of running away from the war on terrorism – indicate that the Conservatives may have forgotten a key lesson from their own recent past.

It is foolhardy to engage an opponent on the basis of his caricature. The Martin Liberals learned that the hard way when they convinced themselves that they had so successfully assassinated Harper's political character in 2004 that he could not rise from the grave to beat them two years later.






 
I personally like Chantal Hebert's columns and don't disagree with what she has written there today. I do think that it's all a mute point as there will likely be a spring election before a decision has to be made on the 2009 deadline. I wouldn't like to bet on the outcome of the election at this point. The Tories are leading in the polls at the moment  (last night's news had them at 36% compared to 30% Liberal and Dion's popularity was somewhere around 20% I think) but anything can happen when the writ hits the streets. I just hope we can get a lot of our equipment purchases going before the election because if the Liberals manage to turn their popularity around we will no doubt suffer in DND at the hands of our old "friends" the Liberals.
 
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