>I expect that Trump will win re-election.
That is looking a lot less likely. The betting odds shown at RCP
now favour Biden, and the RCP National Average has favoured Biden for a while.
This protest crisis could have been a golden opportunity for a savvy campaigner to admonish states and cities to re-establish control while pledging federal resources and making uplifting noises about bringing all Americans into the circle of privilege and protecting the essential liberties of all. But Trump has put his foot in it as usual, and boosted it so strongly into an election issue that the usual secondary effect will apply: the spotlight has moved away from the people responsible for the problems and it will be hard to move it back; it is now all about Trump.
On 8 Nov 2016, Nate Silver's odds of Trump becoming president were 28.6%. The US got the (approximately) 3-out-of-10 result. No-one should be complacent even if Trump's odds are sliding down to 40%. A strong economic recovery will pitch his odds up. An absence of severe consequences for relaxing COVID-related mobility restrictions may pitch his odds up. A "long hot summer" in which Democrats make the mistake of standing with the hooligans as well as the protestors, and Trump manages however ham-fistedly to look like the man for order, may pitch his odds up. A weak performance by Joe Biden will pitch Trump's odds up.
Conversely, if Biden picks a compelling VP candidate, Trump's odds might slide catastrophically. (There is an understandable, if odd, discussion going around that Biden could be used as some sort of breaching device for a person Democrats would really like to succeed Biden as president.)