2022 CPC Leadership Discussion: Et tu Redeux

[Eaglelord17]

Just remember gas and housing aren't included in the inflation index since the early 80s. Inflation is substantially higher than the numbers they are saying, anyone who has bought a house in the last 2 years, had to rent a new place, or not been locked in at lower rates can verify this. Many people are struggling to get by, and the people who will be hit hardest are those who make the least as they have no shield from inflation and their wages aren't going up anywhere near what they need to survive.

 

[Halifax Tar]

Interesting and from the CBC

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/pierre-poilievre-bipoc-youth-support-1.6586065

While I am happy to have all the youth we can get. I wonder if this has more to do with a stale Liberal brand.

The once energetic juggernaut of sunny ways seems to be more of a dying two stroke these days.

 

[dimsum]

While I am happy to have all the youth we can get. I wonder if this has more to do with a stale Liberal brand.

The once energetic juggernaut of sunny ways seems to be more of a dying two stroke these days.

I'd also be interested to know how many youth and BIPOC are going towards NDP, etc as well. I suspect it's not like the formerly LPC group is all shifting to CPC.

 

[Halifax Tar]

I'd also be interested to know how many youth and BIPOC are going towards NDP, etc as well. I suspect it's not like the formerly LPC group is all shifting to CPC.

That's not much of a story though as it's generally believed that that demographic always tended towards the left end of the spectrum.

 

[dimsum]

That's not much of a story though as it's generally believed that that demographic always tended towards the left end of the spectrum.

Agreed. It's a bit of a "no shit Sherlock" - but I would personally like the stats on that from something like StatsCan or similar.

 

[Halifax Tar]

Agreed. It's a bit of a "no shit Sherlock" - but I would personally like the stats on that from something like StatsCan or similar.

I would be more interested in seeing the trend over time and then by age for that demographic.

 

[Navy_Pete]

Just remember gas and housing aren't included in the inflation index since the early 80s. Inflation is substantially higher than the numbers they are saying, anyone who has bought a house in the last 2 years, had to rent a new place, or not been locked in at lower rates can verify this. Many people are struggling to get by, and the people who will be hit hardest are those who make the least as they have no shield from inflation and their wages aren't going up anywhere near what they need to survive.

That's not true in Canada and CPI actually includes both, but frequently gas prices are reported separately because they are so volatile. StatsCan is generally very clear when they do that and actually label it with 'excluding gasoline'. If that drops off during reporting that's not really their fault, but sometimes without gas you see it referred to as 'core CPI'.

I think people fundamentally misunderstand what CPI is meant to do, but if you read the latest daily for July it has the following;

• gas up 35.6% over a year (with a 54.6% increase in June)
• groceries up by 9.9% over a year, with bakery products up 13.6%
• accommodation up 9.7%, with rent up 4.9% (and expected to grow with increased mortgage rates)
• nat gas prices up 42.6% (mostly driven by ON energy board rate increase approval)

(Source: The Daily — Consumer Price Index, July 2022)

Lot of other info there, but when you look at the data a lot of things are flat (clothing, entertainment, etc) while core necessities are spiking pretty hard. If you really want to you can look at the data yourself; it's searchable back to 1914 with a full visualisation tool to break it down by province, line item etc, or you can look at the numbers on your own.

Searchable CPI data (not seasonally adjusted)
Consumer Price Index, monthly, not seasonally adjusted

Visualization tool
Consumer Price Index Data Visualization Tool

(As an aside, StatsCan has over a hundred different visualisation tools; Statistics Canada - Data Visualization Products so everything from labour market, mortality, population etc is there.)

Put a bit of info below, but StatsCan tries to explain why a broad economic indicator doesn't translate to the day to day expenses of Canadians, and also why some perceptions enter into it.

From the FAQ

https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/220816/cg220816a001-eng.png

How is it calculated, exactly? The CPI is based on a broad basket of goods and services (see The Representative Products of the Consumer Price Index) which is divided into eight categories:

• Food
• Shelter
• Household operations, furnishings and equipment
• Clothing and footwear
• Transportation
• Health and personal care
• Recreation, education and reading
• Alcoholic beverages, tobacco products and recreational cannabis

Why doesn't it match my personal spending experience?​

It is important to note the CPI may not seem to match the exact experience of individuals, households, or even regions in Canada. This is because consumers, understandably, are more likely to notice – and attach greater importance to – price changes for the things they buy frequently, rather than more occasional purchases. Changes in common items like milk or gasoline are included in the CPI, but the index also includes items that are purchased less frequently, such as furniture, home electronics and clothing, as well as items that have been decreasing in price compared to last year, such as cellular services and car insurance premiums. This can explain how the perceptions and experiences of individual consumers may differ from the monthly CPI.

 

[Good2Golf]

I think people fundamentally misunderstand what CPI is meant to do, but if you read the latest daily for July it has the following;

• gas up 35.6% over a year (with a 54.6% increase in June)
• groceries up by 9.9% over a year, with bakery products up 13.6%
• accommodation up 9.7%, with rent up 4.9% (and expected to grow with increased mortgage rates)
• nat gas prices up 42.6% (mostly driven by ON energy board rate increase approval)

So do you seriously wonder why people question a 7% figure, when they’re making their wardrobe last a bit longer and not going out as often for a night on the town, and all the rest of those things…that people need for shelter and to get to/from work are well, well above the CPI?

 

[Brad Sallows]

For the what-iffers, the main difference between what the LPC has done and what the CPC might have done is that the CPC would likely have gone into events with a modest surplus net budget and lower accumulated deficit, meaning more fiscal freedom of manoeuvre. A secondary difference might have been energy policy (the CPC being more liberal in this regard).

All the external factors would still be there. Everyone will have to guess for himself whether those things would have mitigated effects on Canada, and by how much.

 

[YZT580]

For the what-iffers, the main difference between what the LPC has done and what the CPC might have done is that the CPC would likely have gone into events with a modest surplus net budget and lower accumulated deficit, meaning more fiscal freedom of manoeuvre. A secondary difference might have been energy policy (the CPC being more liberal in this regard).

All the external factors would still be there. Everyone will have to guess for himself whether those things would have mitigated effects on Canada, and by how much.

and possibly our natural resource infrastructure would be expanding to provide our allies with the resources they need to compensate for the loss of Russian resources instead of promising a hydrogen plant sometime in the future

 

[Navy_Pete]

So do you seriously wonder why people question a 7% figure, when they’re making their wardrobe last a bit longer and not going out as often for a night on the town, and all the rest of those things…that people need for shelter and to get to/from work are well, well above the CPI?

No, because people don't understand what CPI actually means, or how compound interest/inflation works (which is how credit cards make money).

Inflation over the last 2 years is 12% overall (and $100 from 1914 is about $2600 today), so even a 2% over a long enough time can be cumulatively huge. It also depends on when you use it as a snapshot in time; over the last 3 months gas prices dropped from $2/ litre to about $1.40 right now, but is basically double what it was if you use April 2020 as a ref point, or up about $0.20/litre from Feb/Mar 2020.

But again, if bread goes up 14%, that's what, $0.40 a loaf, so a few extra bucks a month? For someone that drives a lot a very small change in gas will be a massive difference in their monthlies.

There's other stuff on CPI that are very infrequent buys, so the fact that the prices of something like furniture is pretty flat doesn't mean your grocery bills haven't skyrocketed. If you want to know what your own is, just plug it into Stats Can's personal inflation calculator;

Personal Inflation Calculator

 

[Good2Golf]

So you’re going to try and portray inflation as just a few bucks a month, based on bread alone? I’m solidly in double digits using the personal calculator (and that jives very closely with my monthly budgeting numbers), and that’s before I refinance my mortgage next year at what I’m guessing will be more than 1.89%. I would certainly love to be experiencing just a 7% or 8% rise in expenses. My mortgage payments alone next year will conservatively (at todays rate) increase by 51.5%. About the only positive thing is that my property taxes will hopefully be less next year than the 3% increase for 2022.

 

[Kirkhill]

So you’re going to try and portray inflation as just a few bucks a month, based on bread alone? I’m solidly in double digits using the personal calculator (and that jives very closely with my monthly budgeting numbers), and that’s before I refinance my mortgage next year at what I’m guessing will be more than 1.89%. I would certainly love to be experiencing just a 7% or 8% rise in expenses. My mortgage payments alone next year will conservatively (at todays rate) increase by 51.5%. About the only positive thing is that my property taxes will hopefully be less next year than the 3% increase for 2022.

Just went through a budgeting exercise personally due to remortgaging.

Mortgage from 2 to 5%
Groceries over 4 years up 60%.

 

[Good2Golf]

Just went through a budgeting exercise personally done to remortgaging.

Mortgage from 2 to 5%
Groceries over 4 years up 60%.

Shhhh…you’re ruining StatsCan’s groove.

 

[Remius]

I would argue that mortgage rates were unusually low the last few years and were due for a course correction at some points. Plenty of warnings about that.

 

[Good2Golf]

I would argue that mortgage rates were unusually low the last few years and were due for a course correction at some points. Plenty of warnings about that.

True. That make me feel much better about things, and bad about complaining about inflation……..

 

[Halifax Tar]

I would argue that mortgage rates were unusually low the last few years and were due for a course correction at some points. Plenty of warnings about that.

You're right. Of course that means absolutely nothing to the reality people will find themselves in.

 

[Halifax Tar]

No, because people don't understand what CPI actually means, or how compound interest/inflation works (which is how credit cards make money).

Inflation over the last 2 years is 12% overall (and $100 from 1914 is about $2600 today), so even a 2% over a long enough time can be cumulatively huge. It also depends on when you use it as a snapshot in time; over the last 3 months gas prices dropped from $2/ litre to about $1.40 right now, but is basically double what it was if you use April 2020 as a ref point, or up about $0.20/litre from Feb/Mar 2020.

But again, if bread goes up 14%, that's what, $0.40 a loaf, so a few extra bucks a month? For someone that drives a lot a very small change in gas will be a massive difference in their monthlies.

There's other stuff on CPI that are very infrequent buys, so the fact that the prices of something like furniture is pretty flat doesn't mean your grocery bills haven't skyrocketed. If you want to know what your own is, just plug it into Stats Can's personal inflation calculator;

Personal Inflation Calculator

This was my point in a previous post. You don't get to decide what 40 cents means to someone else. You also don't get to decide that they can suffer that additional cost with no issues.

Peoples personal financial situation will dictate that. Not you, and not Stats Can and not the Gov.

Now, JT need to be held accountable for the time leading up to this and how he and his gov chooses to navigate.

 

[Remius]

True. That make me feel much better about things, and bad about complaining about inflation……..

I can’t dictate if you feel good or bad about it. Just an observation on how we were in a real estate bubble. Rates were were going go up at some point. Inflation or not.

I’m sure inflation as a whole doesn’t help though.

 

[Halifax Tar]

I can’t dictate if you feel good or bad about it. Just an observation on how we were in a real estate bubble. Rates were were going go up at some point. Inflation or not.

I’m sure inflation as a whole doesn’t help though.

The catch 22 is people have to find a place to live. And they are at the whim of an artificial market.

To anyone out there:

If you bought after Mar 2020 you have my sympathies.