2022 CPC Leadership Discussion: Et tu Redeux

[Navy_Pete]

I would say yes; they keep putting up leaders with dubious competence or very punchable and then wonder why they lose. I actually thought O'Toole was pretty good but was trying to please all the wings of the party while still being electable. That's an impossible task, as some of the fringe elements have stances that make the leader political kryptonite.

I think some house cleaning is needed to ever get electable; they may lose members to the PPC or whatever, but right now they are alienating the majority of the centre who have no interest in going back to the 1950s, and just want to be able to pay their bills without the country falling apart.

I don't want to vote for either at this point, but there isn't any non-lunatic middle ground smaller parties in my area, and the NDP and Green party candidates seem to be whoever has a pulse that wants their name on a placard instead of someone who would actually be a competent MP if elected.

 

[IKnowNothing]

I would say yes; they keep putting up leaders with dubious competence or very punchable and then wonder why they lose. I actually thought O'Toole was pretty good but was trying to please all the wings of the party while still being electable. That's an impossible task, as some of the fringe elements have stances that make the leader political kryptonite.

I think some house cleaning is needed to ever get electable; they may lose members to the PPC or whatever, but right now they are alienating the majority of the centre who have no interest in going back to the 1950s, and just want to be able to pay their bills without the country falling apart.

I don't want to vote for either at this point, but there isn't any non-lunatic middle ground smaller parties in my area, and the NDP and Green party candidates seem to be whoever has a pulse that wants their name on a placard instead of someone who would actually be a competent MP if elected.

With the same thoughts running through my head, presuming I'm not completely off base, and assuming PP wins.. I wonder if the braintrust behind this course of action has considered that they've alienated a membership pool effectively large enough for a first ballot win of any other leadership contest in the history of the party, tied to a candidate with strong allegiance to one with the backing of the PC establishment and endorsement of a non-trivial number of MP's, all this with potentially years before an election. The recipe is there for a split/defection that dwarfs Mr. Bernier's.

 

[RangerRay]

I always found something sleazy about Brown. I couldn’t put my finger on it but the previous allegations, his promise to legalize the Tamil Tigers without any discussions with the national security apparatus, and his reluctance to challenge China on their influence and intimidation operations really didn’t help dispel that.

I also don’t find Pollievre or Charest to be very compelling either. I suspect I will be politically homeless for the next several years.

 

[Good2Golf]

I always found something sleazy about Brown. I couldn’t put my finger on it but the previous allegations, his promise to legalize the Tamil Tigers without any discussions with the national security apparatus, and his reluctance to challenge China on their influence and intimidation operations really didn’t help dispel that.

I also don’t find Pollievre or Charest to be very compelling either. I suspect I will be politically homeless for the next several years.

I’m prepping already for the walk in the snow…

 

[RangerRay]

I think Trudeau Jr. will stick around for another kick at the can. He can’t help himself. He loves a fight and I think would relish the chance to put another Tory leader into the political grave. Despite his innumerable failings, I think he has a good chance of doing that.

 

[Good2Golf]

I think Trudeau Jr. will stick around for another kick at the can. He can’t help himself. He loves a fight and I think would relish the chance to put another Tory leader into the political grave. Despite his innumerable failings, I think he has a good chance of doing that.

Most likely. In change management, there’s often talk of the ‘burning platform’ to get folks to jump off…Fils et Cie. are geared up in the latest fire retardant apparel.

JT and friends could pretty much walk unburnt through a massive party hosted trilaterally by the Aga Khan, SNC Lavelin and the Kielburger brothers…

 

[Remius]

I think Trudeau Jr. will stick around for another kick at the can. He can’t help himself. He loves a fight and I think would relish the chance to put another Tory leader into the political grave. Despite his innumerable failings, I think he has a good chance of doing that.

I think he’s done. He was done when he didn’t get his majority. He’s on his legacy world tour right now. I predict he’ll step down, they’ll have a very polite leadership contest to contrast the current CPC leadership goat rodeo and maybe call a snap election when it suits them and catch the CPC off guard.

Could maybe win but I doubt he can win a majority.

He’d rather leave undefeated and pass the torch off. I expect an announcement around Xmas or early new year that he’s stepping down when a new leader is chosen.

 

[Good2Golf]

Could maybe win but I doubt he can win a majority.

Honestly....does he have to?

 

[Remius]

Honestly....does he have to?

I think he does. And I think he or rather someone has done the math if he stays in power.

 

[Furniture]

I always found something sleazy about Brown. I couldn’t put my finger on it but the previous allegations, his promise to legalize the Tamil Tigers without any discussions with the national security apparatus, and his reluctance to challenge China on their influence and intimidation operations really didn’t help dispel that.

I also don’t find Pollievre or Charest to be very compelling either. I suspect I will be politically homeless for the next several years.

I can't understand why Brown was considered a "better" alternative to PP by anyone who wants to see a CPC win in the next election. He was fired from the Ontario PCs because of sexual misconduct... Regardless of the fact the woman in question wasn't underage, and nothing criminal was discovered, it would still be a damaging weapon for the LPC/NDP to use against him, and the CPC in general, for electing a leader known to have committed sexual misconduct.

 

[The Bread Guy]

I think Trudeau Jr. will stick around for another kick at the can. He can’t help himself. He loves a fight and I think would relish the chance to put another Tory leader into the political grave. Despite his innumerable failings, I think he has a good chance of doing that.

The main reason I don't think this'll be the case is because I don't see Team Red rousing up the unwashed in a mass "PP is evil!" narrative - or they may be waiting to see if/when he's officially the leader, too.

And as much as I'm not wild about PP, Team Red's captain'll have a hard time standing up to him rhetorically speaking (pun intended). I also don't see a lot of next-in-lines on Team Red to be able to stand up to & push PP hard, either.

 

[Good2Golf]

And as much as I'm not wild about PP, Team Red's captain'll have a hard time standing up to him rhetorically speaking (pun intended). I also don't see a lot of next-in-lines on Team Red to be able to stand up to & push PP hard, either.

I’d definitely pay top dollar for front row seats to the debates (French AND English) though, if JT stayed on for another round and PP was CPC leader!!!

 

[Navy_Pete]

Why would anyone have to push PP hard? He's inherently unlikeable to a lot of people, and has curated a 15 second news reel setup as an attack dog.

I think they could sit back and let him sink himself, along with the crypto stock and freedum convoy he hitched himself to in a bunch of self goals. Dude is a walking series of unforced error who has never held a real job. To top it all off he's got a Howdy Doody haircut in a throwback to the 'good old days' and has that compensating small man energy.

I think JT would beat him by default if he just kept his mouth shut, and anyone else would be looking at a majority with the LPC.

Even if his policy and plans were sound (which they aren't) he has to overcome a personality deficit of being a smug face you kind of want to punch.

All incredibly harsh and shallow judgements, but that seems to matter more than sound policy and being competent (and so far he's demonstrated neither). He may get the 'own the libs' votes, plus some family but after that, I really can't see him making inroads if he has to be coherent past a soundbite and sell what he can do, vice how bad the other guy is.

I think he would just be yet another mistake at electing as a leader.... so landslide win to lead the CPCs into maybe scraping out the official opposition! (but only because the BQ takes seats from the NDP).

 

[TacticalTea]

I just want Jean Charest so that the Crown stays in Quebec, no matter who wins.

 

[Furniture]

Why would anyone have to push PP hard? He's inherently unlikeable to a lot of people, and has curated a 15 second news reel setup as an attack dog.

I think they could sit back and let him sink himself, along with the crypto stock and freedum convoy he hitched himself to in a bunch of self goals. Dude is a walking series of unforced error who has never held a real job. To top it all off he's got a Howdy Doody haircut in a throwback to the 'good old days' and has that compensating small man energy.

I think JT would beat him by default if he just kept his mouth shut, and anyone else would be looking at a majority with the LPC.

Even if his policy and plans were sound (which they aren't) he has to overcome a personality deficit of being a smug face you kind of want to punch.

All incredibly harsh and shallow judgements, but that seems to matter more than sound policy and being competent (and so far he's demonstrated neither). He may get the 'own the libs' votes, plus some family but after that, I really can't see him making inroads if he has to be coherent past a soundbite and sell what he can do, vice how bad the other guy is.

I think he would just be yet another mistake at electing as a leader.... so landslide win to lead the CPCs into maybe scraping out the official opposition! (but only because the BQ takes seats from the NDP).

I suspect that much like the people who underestimate the appeal of JT, you are underestimating the appeal of PP. Remember back in 2014 when people were pretty sure that JT wasn't going to be "serious" enough to attract voters?

The LPC have ben losing more of the popular vote each time they go to the polls, if PP can bring a bit more "sunny ways" to his messaging after the CPC leadership race he may be able to swing voters his way.

 

[Navy_Pete]

JT was pro-choice though; even a whiff of pro life, anti-vaxx etc is enough that people just won't trust that he'll pander to the lunatics in the asylum if he gets in. That killed O'Toole and he was pretty centrist outside that single zoom call with the QC so-cons, and he was foxed.

I think the CPC is also underestimating how punchable his face is; some people are naturally quite dividing and he seems to be one of them. When a number of people have a visceral, illogical reaction to someone it's probably a bad sign to their electability. I don't even think he may get re-elected in his own riding after siding with the convoy who were pissing off his constituents.

 

[Lumber]

I think the CPC is also underestimating how punchable his face is; some people are naturally quite dividing and he seems to be one of them.

Yes! This! Everyone I know agrees with this. Such a punchable face.

 

[Furniture]

JT was pro-choice though; even a whiff of pro life, anti-vaxx etc is enough that people just won't trust that he'll pander to the lunatics in the asylum if he gets in. That killed O'Toole and he was pretty centrist outside that single zoom call with the QC so-cons, and he was foxed.

I think the CPC is also underestimating how punchable his face is; some people are naturally quite dividing and he seems to be one of them. When a number of people have a visceral, illogical reaction to someone it's probably a bad sign to their electability. I don't even think he may get re-elected in his own riding after siding with the convoy who were pissing off his constituents.

His riding is well outside the downtown, and even just across the Rideau River(but still well inside the general "downtown" according to many) in Vanier the convoy was only annoying because of the media coverage. I spent weeks not being bothered by anything happening within a couple of blocks of Parliament, and I suspect the good people who live south of Nepean had the same experience.

O'Tool was brought low by waffling, not by having a position. He tried to play both sides, appearing unreliable to both. PP for all his faults doesn't seem to be one to try to play both sides.

I'm not saying PP would be the best PM ever, but I suspect he would do a lot better than the guy in the office right now. Until the LPC puts someone serious in the leader role, I think a punchable PP is better than a punchable JT...

 

[Remius]

His riding is well outside the downtown, and even just across the Rideau River(but still well inside the general "downtown" according to many) in Vanier the convoy was only annoying because of the media coverage. I spent weeks not being bothered by anything happening within a couple of blocks of Parliament, and I suspect the good people who live south of Nepean had the same experience.

O'Tool was brought low by waffling, not by having a position. He tried to play both sides, appearing unreliable to both. PP for all his faults doesn't seem to be one to try to play both sides.

I'm not saying PP would be the best PM ever, but I suspect he would do a lot better than the guy in the office right now. Until the LPC puts someone serious in the leader role, I think a punchable PP is better than a punchable JT...

I’m one of his constituents. I voted for him last time. This time not likely if he becomes leader.

https://old.ipolitics.ca/wp-content/uploads/2022/06/Mainstreet_Riding_Poll_Carleton_June_14_15_2022-1.pdf

I posted this recent poll of the riding a few days ago and support for PP is now within the margin of error. A big drop for someone who overwhelmingly wins most elections with large margins. And if you look at the data, his performance in regards to the convoy has had a negative impact.

That being said. We are still a long way from an election. And maybe he gets a leader’s bump if he becomes the leader. So things can change.

But I am aware of several people in the riding (some on this site) that are not impressed with him right now and that poll seems to support that.

Time will tell if changes though.

I would be happy though with any leader that isn’t punchable though at this point lol.

 

[Halifax Tar]

JT was pro-choice though; even a whiff of pro life, anti-vaxx etc is enough that people just won't trust that he'll pander to the lunatics in the asylum if he gets in. That killed O'Toole and he was pretty centrist outside that single zoom call with the QC so-cons, and he was foxed.

I think the CPC is also underestimating how punchable his face is; some people are naturally quite dividing and he seems to be one of them. When a number of people have a visceral, illogical reaction to someone it's probably a bad sign to their electability. I don't even think he may get re-elected in his own riding after siding with the convoy who were pissing off his constituents.

I actually agree with you. I think PP will be fodder for the Liberal machine. He will give an easy minority to the Libs, but I don't see a majority coming their way.

I've said this a few times now. This may be a long game strategy by the Cons. By giving the Libs successive chances to act like buffoons', which they take glee in embracing, Liberal stock continues to fall.

One more round and maybe the Libs will put themselves in a position similar or worse than '11 where the Libs have spent all their capital and completely collapse. Could we be seeing a repeat of the Chretien V Martin situation ? I remember the Libs going through a few lame ducks before the sun prince emerged.

Rona Ambrose, are you waiting in the bushes to pounce ?