A few years ago, probably in 2006, referring to the Canadian general election, I said something like: "Ontario matters ... it is the economic engine of Canada, 38% of Canadian live there and they produce (the present tense matters) over 40% of GDP." Now (2012 data) Ontario still has 38% of the population but it's share of GDP has fallen - only to 39%, to be sure, but that (2.5%) decline is both
a) statistically significant when measuring GDP over such a short period; and
b) not how one wants a nation's
economic engine to perform.
In fact the
engine of growth is now running on three (small) cylinders: Alberta, Saskatchewan and Newfoundland and Labrador.
Quebec has significant
structural (actually
cultural) economic problems that prevent it from running a productive, growing economy: the people have a totally unfounded
belief in the utility of the
state and this leads governments to intervene, consistently unsuccessfully, in the economy. Quebec, the second largest province, will remain an economic drain on the
state as a whole.
But: it will remain one of our national foundation stones, one, of several - not just two, that helps define the basic nature of Canada. (The root cause of Quebec's problems lies, in my view, in the education system - it (consistently) denigrates English/British
capitalism and celebrates French
statism. The
liberal English system triumphed; France and the
conservative 'French model' failed but if you attend school in Quebec you are likely to learn the opposite.)
British Columbia, too, is stagnant ... on about the same level as Quebec but for different reasons.
The problem is worst in the manufacturing sector:
Source: Nova Scotia Department of Finance - Statistics
Canada is doing well in resources and agriculture but the good jobs, the (relatively) well paid, (relatively) low skilled and (relatively, again) secure jobs on production lines and in small factories are disappearing in Quebec and Ontario. Only Alberta, Saskatchewan, Newfoundland and Labrador and Nova Scotia have
recovered from 2008.
MacJobs will not cut it for Ontario: the province needs to recover manufacturing jobs. The
holy grail is politics is a
real job, a manufacturing job, for the young, male, newly married, school leaver.
Ontario needs those jobs.
Governments do not, ever,
create those jobs.
Governments can, and sometimes do,
create the conditions - lower corporate taxes, fewer (not none, just fewer) regulations like compulsory union membership, and so on - that encourage private industry to
create jobs.
We, Canada, including Ontario, have some structural advantages: resources, an educated population, political maturity, a half decent public health care system, and so on. We need to embrace
liberal capitalism ... and nowhere is that need greater, in 2014, than in Ontario.
