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Justin Trudeau hints at boosting Canada’s military spending

Justin Trudeau hints at boosting Canada’s military spending

Canada says it will look at increasing its defence spending and tacked on 10 more Russian names to an ever growing sanctions list.

By Tonda MacCharles
Ottawa Bureau
Mon., March 7, 2022

Riga, LATVIA—On the 13th day of the brutal Russian bid to claim Ukraine as its own, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is showing up at the Latvian battle group led by Canadian soldiers, waving the Maple Leaf and a vague hint at more money for the military.

Canada has been waving the NATO flag for nearly seven years in Latvia as a bulwark against Russia’s further incursions in Eastern Europe.

Canada stepped up to lead one of NATO’s four battle groups in 2015 — part of the defensive alliance’s display of strength and solidarity with weaker member states after Russia invaded Ukraine and seized the Crimean peninsula in 2014. Trudeau arrived in the Latvian capital late Monday after meetings in the U.K. with British Prime Minister Boris Johnson and Netherlands Prime Minister Mark Rutte.

Earlier Monday, faced with a seemingly unstoppable war in Ukraine, Trudeau said he will look at increasing Canada’s defence spending. Given world events, he said there are “certainly reflections to have.”

And Canada tacked on 10 more Russian names to an ever-growing sanctions list.

The latest round of sanctions includes names Trudeau said were identified by jailed Russian opposition leader and Putin nemesis Alexei Navalny.

However, on a day when Trudeau cited the new sanctions, and Johnson touted new measures meant to expose Russian property owners in his country, Rutte admitted sanctions are not working.

Yet they all called for more concerted international efforts over the long haul, including more economic measures and more humanitarian aid, with Johnson and Rutte divided over how quickly countries need to get off Russian oil and gas.

The 10 latest names on Canada’s target list do not include Roman Abramovich — a Russian billionaire Navalny has been flagging to Canada since at least 2017. Canada appears to have sanctioned about 20 of the 35 names on Navalny’s list.

The Conservative opposition says the Liberal government is not yet exerting maximum pressure on Putin, and should do more to bolster Canadian Forces, including by finally approving the purchase of fighter jets.

Foreign affairs critic Michael Chong said in an interview that Ottawa must still sanction “additional oligarchs close to President Putin who have significant assets in Canada.”

Abramovich owns more than a quarter of the public shares in steelmaking giant Evraz, which has operations in Alberta and Saskatchewan and has supplied most of the steel for the government-owned Trans Mountain pipeline project.

Evraz’s board of directors also includes two more Russians the U.S. government identified as “oligarchs” in 2019 — Aleksandr Abramov and Aleksandr Frolov — and its Canadian operations have received significant support from the federal government.

That includes at least $27 million in emergency wage subsidies during the pandemic, as well as $7 million through a fund meant to help heavy-polluters reduce emissions that cause climate change, according to the company’s most recent annual report.

In addition to upping defence spending, the Conservatives want NORAD’s early warning system upgraded, naval shipbuilding ramped up and Arctic security bolstered.

In London, Johnson sat down with Trudeau and Rutte at the Northolt airbase. Their morning meetings had a rushed feel, with Johnson starting to usher press out before Trudeau spoke. His office said later that the British PM couldn’t squeeze the full meeting in at 10 Downing Street because Johnson’s “diary” was so busy that day. The three leaders held an afternoon news conference at 10 Downing.

But before that Trudeau met with the Queen, saying she was “insightful” and they had a “useful, for me anyway, conversation about global affairs.”

Trudeau meets with NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg Tuesday in Latvia.

The prime minister will also meet with three Baltic leaders, the prime ministers of Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia, in the Latvian capital of Riga.

The Liberals announced they would increase the 500 Canadian Forces in Latvia by another 460 troops. The Canadians are leading a multinational battle group, one of four that are part of NATO’s deployments in the region.

Another 3,400 Canadians could be deployed to the region in the months to come, on standby for NATO orders.

But Canada’s shipments of lethal aid to Ukraine were slow to come in the view of the Conservatives, and the Ukrainian Canadian community.

And suddenly Western allies are eyeing each other’s defence commitments.

At the Downing Street news conference, Rutte noted the Netherlands will increase its defence budget to close to two per cent of GDP. Germany has led the G7, and doubled its defence budget in the face of Putin’s invasion and threats. Johnson said the U.K. defence spending is about 2.4 per cent and declined to comment on Canada’s defence spending which is 1.4 per cent of GDP.

But Johnson didn’t hold back.

“What we can’t do, post the invasion of Ukraine is assume that we go back to a kind of status quo ante, a kind of new normalization in the way that we did after the … seizure of Crimea and the Donbas area,” Johnson said. “We’ve got to recognize that things have changed and that we need a new focus on security and I think that that is kind of increasingly understood by everybody.”

Trudeau stood by his British and Dutch counterparts and pledged Canada would do more.

He defended his government’s record, saying Ottawa is gradually increasing spending over the next decade by 70 per cent. Then Trudeau admitted more might be necessary.

“We also recognize that context is changing rapidly around the world and we need to make sure that women and men have certainty and our forces have all the equipment necessary to be able to stand strongly as we always have. As members of NATO. We will continue to look at what more we can do.”

The three leaders — Johnson, a conservative and Trudeau and Rutte, progressive liberals — in a joint statement said they “will continue to impose severe costs on Russia.”

Arriving for the news conference from Windsor Castle, Trudeau had to detour to enter Downing Street as loud so-called Freedom Convoy protesters bellowed from outside the gate. They carried signs marked “Tuck Frudeau” and “Free Tamara” (Lich).

Protester Jeff Wyatt who said he has no Canadian ties told the Star he came to stand up for Lich and others who were leading a “peaceful protest” worldwide against government “lies” about COVID-19 and what he called Trudeau’s “tyranny.”

Elsewhere in London, outside the Russian embassy, other protesters and passersby reflected on what they said was real tyranny — the Russian attack on Ukraine. “I think we should be as tough as possible to get this stopped, as tough as possible,” said protester Clive Martinez.
 
I know several employers, some of them ex-military, who refuse to hire reservists because they always want time off to go do military stuff and leave behind extra work for everyone else.

I agree with FJAG,
For me, the big factor, as I alluded to above, is to absolutely maximize the training effort during the reservists school years when there are no competing family and employer concerns. Once trained, the only real necessity is to do a form of refresher training for the bulk of the unit.

When they graduate high school / college, something like this, perhaps,
 
View attachment 69533
Cartoonist sums up my point with a picture.
Put it this way….if an RCAF Spitfire that had flown air patrol over Normandy during D-Day was to fly, the same duration as Canada’s CF-18s have been to date, that Spitfire would have still been flying in front line service after we had received our first CF-18s…
 
Put it this way….if an RCAF Spitfire that had flown air patrol over Normandy during D-Day was to fly, the same duration as Canada’s CF-18s have been to date, that Spitfire would have still been flying in front line service after we had received our first CF-18s…
Then again, if an RCAF Spitfire was compared to USAF KC-135 or B-52, they would be still flying. :sneaky:
 
Put it this way….if an RCAF Spitfire that had flown air patrol over Normandy during D-Day was to fly, the same duration as Canada’s CF-18s have been to date, that Spitfire would have still been flying in front line service after we had received our first CF-18s…
Then again, if an RCAF Spitfire was compared to USAF KC-135 or B-52, they would be still flying. :sneaky:

Or a Dak . . .


Douglas Dakota Mk. III(Serial No. ), FZ671, C/N 12256, later (Serial No. 12944), in the markings of No. 437 Squadron, RCAF, coded Z-2B, painted as a Second World War camouflaged transport.

FZ671 was delivered to the No. 48 Squadron, RAF on 4 Feb 1944. This Dakota made at least two flights into Arnhem for Operation Market Garden. The first one was on 17 Jul 1944. The Pilot Officer on the first lift was Flight Lieutenant A.C. Blythe, RCAF, who went on to win a DFC. It also went in on the third lift on 19 Sep 1944, with Pilot Officer A.M. Smith.
It joined 4No. 37 Squadron, RCAF in Sep 1945 and also served with Nos. 426, 429, 435, and 437 Squadrons, No. 25 Ambulance, and No. 1 Air Navigation School through the years as FZ671. Its Serial Number changed to 12944 with the Canadian Armed Forces in June 1970. It was transferred to No. 429 Squadron at Saskatoon, Saskatchewan, in March 1975, and then to No. 429 Communications Squadron in Winnipeg, Manitoba, from 1979 to 1980. 12944 was struck off strength with the RCAF on 14 Apr 1989. It now resides in the Heritage Air Park as Dakota EZ761.
 
The issue with Defence Spending is the fiscal pressures will be exacerbated by Inflation. Defence Inflation is also more pronounced than regular inflation so the problems are magnified in a hyper-inflationary environment.

The Parliamentary Budget Officer warned about this problem 10 years ago. I will dig up the report (our Govt's archiving is pretty bad).

And they just put out another update:


Key highlights:

We underspent each of the 4 years since SSE was published

Inflation is expected to cause additional pressures going forward

Screenshot_20220318-080534_Adobe Acrobat.jpg
 
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The issue with Defence Spending is the fiscal pressures will be exasperated by Inflation. Defence Inflation is also more pronounced than regular inflation so the problems are magnified in a hyper-inflationary environment.

The Parliamentary Budget Officer warned about this problem 10 years ago. I will dig up the report (our Govt's archiving is pretty bad).

And they just put out another update:


Key highlights:

We underspent each of the 4 years since SSE was published

Inflation is expected to cause additional pressures going forward

View attachment 69549
The word you're looking for is exacerbated.
 
A bit of optimism ...
... Defence Minister Anita Anand said this week that she will be tabling “aggressive” options to significantly boost Canada’s rate of defence spending once the cabinet starts planning its spring budget. Depending on how it goes, this could spell the biggest surge in Canadian defence spending in more than 50 years.

Canada, of course, has one of the most lacklustre defence spending records in NATO. While members of the alliance are expected to spend 2 per cent of national GDP on defence, Canada only spends about 1.4 per cent. Speaking to CBC this week, Anand said she was drafting proposals under which Canada could hit or exceed the 2 per cent baseline. That would be roughly an extra $10 billion to spend on the military each year.

Pessimists, however, will argue that the Canadian Armed Forces’ problem is not merely one of spending, given that it can’t seem to spend the money it already has. Last year, for instance, the Department of Defence failed to spend $1.2 billion of its allocated budget, continuing a trend of lapsed defence spending that has been occurring quite regularly since the government of Stephen Harper.

The Canadian military also has a penchant to make procurement far more expensive and painful than it needs to be. We’ve brought this up before, but when the British Army replaced its standard-issue pistols in 2010, it took them three years and $14.5 million. For the Canadian Army, replacing the exact same pistol has required 15 years and more than $100 million.

We also happen to have
one of the most top-heavy militaries in NATO. Despite an ever-shrinking pool of enlisted personnel, Canada retains about as many generals and admirals as at the height of the Cold War ...
We'll see ...
 
A bit of optimism ...

We'll see ...
I’ve been hinting that Anand is laying the groundwork for an increase to or close to 2%.

What remains to be seen is how much of this will be real tangible things or more smoke and mirrors.

With Force reconstitution there is a golden opportunity to make some real institutional changes.
 
Post Somalia orders to shrink to about 65 GOFOs,then accelerating growth starring under Hillier, hitting its stride under Vance.

From an organizational norms perspective, a lot of it reads as Vance using new positions and promotions as a tool to keep subordinates happy and preventing them from working to undermine him.

Frankly, given the CAF's operational outputs, three Cpls in a trenchcoat would probably be sufficient.
 
Post Somalia orders to shrink to about 65 GOFOs,then accelerating growth starring under Hillier, hitting its stride under Vance.

From an organizational norms perspective, a lot of it reads as Vance using new positions and promotions as a tool to keep subordinates happy and preventing them from working to undermine him.

Frankly, given the CAF's operational outputs, three Cpls in a trenchcoat would probably be sufficient.
I for one always thought the CDS should have been a MG, with CCA, CRCN and CRCAF a 1* - a few OUTCAN 1*'s for a total of 6 max.
Makes it easier to cull Col's for 1* positions and the 1*'s should be keen to prove they should be the next 2* CDS.
 
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